July CET

[The PIT]

Yet another day above 25C rising very rapidly. So CET will get another push before cooling down tomorrow and onwards.

[Anvil Crawler]

Im currently on 20.1°C with it being 26.4 already i expect it to rise again.

[johnholmes]

am on 20.8C up to figures for yesterday.

looking at the Finningley values the highest ever monthly mean there was in August 1975 with 19.5C

Edited July 26, 2006 by johnholmes

[Osbourne One-Nil]

18.0º here. I'll be growing palm trees soon.

[cheeky_monkey]

at my loc in exeter this month as of close of play yesterday....

ave max 26.45c

ave min 13.42c

cet to date = 19.93c

[Dawlish]

18.0º here. I'll be growing palm trees soon.

I've got one already, OON. I fact I can see it from where I sit, 12ft high and thriving.

I can foresee another scrap about Hadley vs Manley CETs coming on! If the July CET ends up between 19.5C and 19.9C, there'll be trouble!

I was always taught, to get mine in first - growing up on a coalfield council estate you had to - so let me just say that the June CET of 19.5C, which is the Hadley figure, should be completely ignored and the only figure that continues Manley's original sequence is the 19.9C CET average.

Anyone using the 19.5C figure should be burned on the altar of meteorological heresy!!

Stitch that, Jimmy!

Paul

Also, while I'm in technical mode (must be the picallili I just had, with my cheese sandwich, for lunch disagreeing with me) would anyone who doesn't live somewhere vaguely along the line from Preston to Oxford please stop describing their monthly averages as their CET??? . Coz it isn't!!! Exeter, Newcastle, the Outer Hebrides, or wherever are not in Central England. Just call it "my monthly average" instead!!

'an stitch that, Jimmy, as well, for a matching pair!

Edited July 26, 2006 by Dawlish

[Thundersquall]

I predict the eventual July CET as:

(20.13 * 26) + (15.72 * 5) / 31 = 19.42c

Thus, a slight increase over predicted values in the average temperature over the remaining five days

could very well see a record July CET temperature and thus an all-time monthly temperature record.

Could well beat the 19.5c CET record set in July 1983,

but very likely not matching the 19.9c Manley record aet in July 1983.

[Stargazer]

The average temperature for July here in my garden in Reading is still creeping up. Up to July 22 it was 21.8 deg C - up to today the averages are: max 28.4, min 15.8, average 22.1, a truly exceptional month.

A CET average of 15.72 over the next 5 days looks pessimistic to me (where's the cold day? Predictions seem to show 12-21 for Jul 31 for the Midlands area on July 31 and all other days warmer). My guess is an average of 17-18 over the next 5 days, giving a final value of around 19.6. Probably the second hottest month in history?

[Thundersquall]

The average temperature for July here in my garden in Reading is still creeping up. Up to July 22 it was 21.8 deg C - up to today the averages are: max 28.4, min 15.8, average 22.1, a truly exceptional month.

A CET average of 15.72 over the next 5 days looks pessimistic to me (where's the cold day? Predictions seem to show 12-21 for Jul 31 for the Midlands area on July 31 and all other days warmer). My guess is an average of 17-18 over the next 5 days, giving a final value of around 19.6. Probably the second hottest month in history?

Stargazer,

Whilst it may be the second hottest month on record, I guess some places could absolutely

smash their all-time records. By 'smash', I mean by at least 1c.

As there has been a predominately hot SE-NE breeze this month, I wouldn't be at all surprised if a very well-sheltered

Bristol ends up smashing its all-time monthly average record.

CET-wise, 19.6c would be the all-time monthly record. Manley CET-wise, the second hottest month on record.

TS.

Edited July 26, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Thundersquall]

The predicted CET rises still further!

(20.17 * 26) + (16.2 * 5) / 31 = 19.53c.

Wow, we're getting so very close to an all-time record!

19.53c won't beat the Manley record of 19.9c set in June (July?) 1983,

but I think it's pretty close to the Hadley record. Which I think is around 19.7c?

Edited July 26, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Bottesford]

My predicted CET rises still further!

(20.17 * 26) + (16.2 * 5) / 31 = 19.53c.

Wow, we're getting so very close to an all-time record!

19.53c won't beat the Manley record of 19.9c set in June (July?) 1983,

but I think it's pretty close to the Hadley record. Which I think is around 19.7c?

It's 19.5c so you're there already!

[Thundersquall]

It's 19.5c so you're there already!

Which record is the more accurate:

The 19.5c Hadley CET of June 1983;

or 19.9c Manley CET for same date?

Edited July 26, 2006 by Thundersquall

[West is Best]

I predict the eventual July CET as:

(20.13 * 26) + (15.72 * 5) / 31 = 19.42c

I really don't know how on earth you are working these out to be honest. If Manley is only 0.1C above Hadley at the moment how on earth is the CET going to fall back to 19.42? I just cannot for the life of me see how you can get that figure ...

Another hot/very hot day tomorrow, especially in the south-east with the BBC once again suggesting 30C will be touched. There's no cooldown as such until Sunday at the earliest in the south-east. With high nightime minima we should see the Manley CET finish aounrd 19.8C or possibly slightly higher. Will be fun to see!

[Thundersquall]

I really don't know how on earth you are working these out to be honest. If Manley is only 0.1C above Hadley at the moment how on earth is the CET going to fall back to 19.42? I just cannot for the life of me see how you can get that figure ...

Another hot/very hot day tomorrow, especially in the south-east with the BBC once again suggesting 30C will be touched. There's no cooldown as such until Sunday at the earliest in the south-east. With high nightime minima we should see the Manley CET finish aounrd 19.8C or possibly slightly higher. Will be fun to see!

Well, it keeps going up. A few posts back, I calculated it at 19.53c.

The formula is as follows:

(Current average x days gone) + (average over remaining days x remaining days) / number of days.

( 20.17 x 26 ) + ( 16.2 x 5 ) / 31 = 19.53c.

The value worked out at 19.53c about an hour ago.

The average figure for the remaining 5 days of July can be obtained from the "16 day UK ave temp" in "DataCentre" on N-w.

Edited July 26, 2006 by Thundersquall

[paul tall]

It might well turn out to be the second hottest month as some are predicting.

However there are regional variations. Here in North East England July 2006 is the hottest month of all time and even a cooldown will not prevent this.

[Weather-history]

I predict the eventual July CET as:

(20.13 * 26) + (15.72 * 5) / 31 = 19.42c

Yes but you are basing that on the net-weather figure which is not the same as Phil's figure or even Hadley's , so you are working out what the final net-weather figure could turn out and not the CET

[Dawlish]

Which record is the more accurate:

The 19.5c Hadley CET of June 1983;

or 19.9c Manley CET for same date?

Errr refer to the; "stich that, Jimmy", above!

Paul

Edited July 26, 2006 by Dawlish

[reef]

Which record is the more accurate:

The 19.5c Hadley CET of June 1983;

or 19.9c Manley CET for same date?

This is where it gets complicated. Technically themselves they are both accurate, its just that they use different sites and are therefore different series'. Which one you use is an even larger issue due to the fact that July 1983 fell after 1974 when Hadley/Manley series seperate.

If we're being consistent, then 19.9C is the one to beat (July 1983 in the Manley series).

[Dawlish]

This is where it gets complicated. Technically themselves they are both accurate, its just that they use different sites and are therefore different series'. Which one you use is an even larger issue due to the fact that July 1983 fell after 1974 when Hadley/Manley series seperate.

If we're being consistent, then 19.9C is the one to beat (July 1983 in the Manley series).

It's the only way! For once, I feel that the Met office is wrong, though I'd really like to see a rejoinder from them. I've got so much respect for the UK Meto, I could even be tempted to change my mind on the issue!

Paul

[Stu_London]

Manley Update to 26/07/06 (thanks to Philip Eden's excellent site)

CET 19.97C

Looks like it is touch and go as to whether the Manley record will fall (I thought it had no chance a couple of days ago)

Unless a Volcano erupts somewhere in the UK!, I suspect the Hadley CET record is now almost certain to be surpassed.

Average Sunshine record for July is now a near certainty to fall although local sites in the south are unlikely to surpass July 1911 (which was apparently cloudless!)

What is most certain of all is that by next Tuesday or Wednesday we will be confronted by armeggeddon type headlines in the Daily Bigot (or similar tabloid publication) coupled with a poorly researched, one sided piece of journallism predicting mini-tornadoes and hurricanes for the British Isles.

[Weather-history]

Average Sunshine record for July is now a near certainty to fall although local sites in the south are unlikely to surpass July 1911 (which was apparently cloudless!)

Sunniest months ever recorded in the Areal Series for England and Wales

Jun 1957 284.6

Jun 1940 275.6

Aug 1995 269.4

Jun 1975 268.2

May 1989 266.3

Aug 1947 265.7

July 1955 265.0

July 1990 263.3

July 1989 261.0

Hastings recorded 384 hrs for July 1911, thats a daily average of 12.4 hrs, which is an amazing figure especially when you consider that the length of the day (sunrise to sunset) decreases as the month progresses.

[West is Best]

Well, it keeps going up. A few posts back, I calculated it at 19.53c.

The formula is as follows:

(Current average x days gone) + (average over remaining days x remaining days) / number of days.

( 20.17 x 26 ) + ( 16.2 x 5 ) / 31 = 19.53c.

The value worked out at 19.53c about an hour ago.

The average figure for the remaining 5 days of July can be obtained from the "16 day UK ave temp" in "DataCentre" on N-w.

Believe me - I do know how the calculations work. I just don't understand how you are reckoning the temps for the remaining days of the month! You have just explained, I think, that you're using the average - but this is realy pointless. It's better to study the GFS charts and others.

[Terminal Moraine]

Sunniest months ever recorded in the Areal Series for England and Wales

Jun 1957 284.6

Jun 1940 275.6

Aug 1995 269.4

Jun 1975 268.2

May 1989 266.3

Aug 1947 265.7

July 1955 265.0

July 1990 263.3

July 1989 261.0

Hastings recorded 384 hrs for July 1911, thats a daily average of 12.4 hrs, which is an amazing figure especially when you consider that the length of the day (sunrise to sunset) decreases as the month progresses.

Very interesting stuff Mr D'. Is the Areal Series available on line anywhere and have you any idea what the official total for this July is so far?

Ignore the first question, I've just found it!!

T.M

Edited July 27, 2006 by Terminal Moraine

[johnholmes]

my average is dead on 21C at the moment, up to last night that is.

[su rui ke]

This is where it gets complicated. Technically themselves they are both accurate, its just that they use different sites and are therefore different series'. Which one you use is an even larger issue due to the fact that July 1983 fell after 1974 when Hadley/Manley series seperate.

If we're being consistent, then 19.9C is the one to beat (July 1983 in the Manley series).

Shouldn't we really say that the Hadley series did not exist before 1974 - which, strictly speaking, means that you cannot compare the Hadley series with the pre-1974 data?

If both series do turn out this month to give a CET of around 19.7C, then the main argument is going to be over the 'warmest on record' tag given to this month. According to the Manley series, 2006 will simply be in second place behind 1983 (19.9C). Using the Hadley series, to be consistent, all we can then really say is that this was the warmest July since 1974 with 1983 in second spot on 19.5C.

However, the next warmest July was far behind any of these months - 18.8 in 1783. So, it seems that had the Hadley series existed at that time it would have had this and all other July's in third place or below, the discrepancy between the two series never being as much as 0.8C in any month. (?). So, by this reasoning it would be reasonable to say this is the warmest July on record if you follow the Hadley CET and it all comes down to which series you regard as a better measure of average temperatures in England.

I realise I have slightly contradicted my opening statement but I hope this makes some sort of sense!