July CET

[West is Best]

Unfortunately I reckon the first 2 weeks of August will be punctuated by LP after LP coming in from the West, never bringing huge amounts of rainfall but it will seem to last forever, particularly after the heatwave.

I'll post this again in the August CET thread but I can see a CET of around 17.0c, 0.8c up from the 71-00 average with rainfall and sunshine both slightly above average.

I will say that I am prepared to be shot down in flames !

Yes it doesn't really have anything whatsoever to do with the July CET ... does it?! :blink:

Philip hasn't yet posted up yesterday's figures. He's probably very busy, being pursued by the media etc. Or he might be avoiding them by not posting the data til the end of the month?!

Edited July 28, 2006 by West is Best

[Terminal Moraine]

Ah yes, but it won't need to be anything like 250 hours TM! Assuming July comes in at around 285 hours (264 hours up to July 26th) then August will need to be about 220 hours to take the record. I'll go for that!

Yep - bet taken!

Mind you, it's a tad risky. Around 220 hours in August should do it, but we've only had a couple of those since 1976. I still favour a solid 10-14 days of settled high pressure during the month so it's got to be worth a bit of a flutter.

Hmm, I hadn't realised July had already reached 264 hours, I really must keep up.

220 hours is within the realms of possibility, even allowing for a rather dodgy start.

It will still take a really good month to crack the record but, you're right, it is worth a flutter.

My own sunshine total is currently approaching 240 hours which is exceptional in these parts. The record is 278 hours in July 1989 but this was recorded at a nearby site using a Campbell Stokes recorder and, when comparing with the record at Buxton, I suspect was always on the high side. Buxton recorded 245 hours in the same month.

The all time record at Buxton is 278 hours in July 1911 and I'm hoping they've got their sunshine recorder back in action after lengthy roof repairs as this record could be under threat.

T.M

Edited July 28, 2006 by Terminal Moraine

[MP-R]

I'm pretty sure I've been keeping correct records for this month but my CET is currently 24.2C!!! :blink:

[reef]

I'm pretty sure I've been keeping correct records for this month but my CET is currently 24.2C!!! :blink:

That still sounds abnormally high, the weatheronline records this month for your region show a much lower average. Are you sure your station is not recieving sunlight?

It has been a warm month for sure, but an average of 24.2°C would require (for example), an average max of 30.0°C and minima of 18.4°C.

[PhilipEden]

Updated now at 20.01 (Manley) and 19.9 (estimated Hadley). I lost my broadband connection overnight and it has totally disrupted my routine!

Philip

[johnholmes]

know the feeling Philip

[parmenides3]

Odds for an overall of 20 + on Manley and NW come end of play Monday? The nights are still pretty warm... :blink:

[Weather-history]

Updated now at 20.01 (Manley) and 19.9 (estimated Hadley). I lost my broadband connection overnight and it has totally disrupted my routine!

Philip

Phil, you are going to have to extend your sunshine graph upwards as your last 30 day line is almost off the graph :blink:

The sunniest July on record must be very very close to falling now.

[paul tall]

My mean for this month is now 19.1º (24.9/13.3) The 71-00 average for Durham, just 10 miles away is 15.2º (19.8/10.7). So we are nearly 4ºC up on the mean, and 5ºC up on the daytime max! Absolutely fantastic.

Also, 285 hours sunshine recorded at Copley so far.

[West is Best]

The sunniest summer in the Areal series is summer 1976 with 748.4hrs for England and Wales

Sunniest summers on record

1976: 748.4hrs

1989: 726.3hrs

1995: 695.8hrs

1975: 689.7hrs

1949: 671.6hrs

1959: 670.7hrs

June 2006 recorded 240.4hrs, so that leaves 508.0 hrs for July and August to equal 1976. July looks like heading for 250hrs+, so that leaves about 250hrs+ for August to beat it.

Up to yesterday the sunshine stands at 284.6hrs. With 3 days to go it's now almost certain to be the sunniest month ever recorded! http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0607.htm

Would be nice to get to the 300 hours, but with cloud ahead that's very unlikely.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Philip Eden's sunshine series is different to the MetO one and generally records higher values, so I wouldn't be so certain.

[Weather-history]

Up to yesterday the sunshine stands at 284.6hrs. With 3 days to go it's now almost certain to be the sunniest month ever recorded! http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0607.htm

Would be nice to get to the 300 hours, but with cloud ahead that's very unlikely.

Looking at what Phil has for his values for past Julies (and its a real word!) they look like they are about 10-14 hrs more than the Met Office's values so I would guestimate that its about 270hrs for Areal series.

Edited July 29, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Thundersquall]

Using the Netweather UK Temperature Tracker + remaining days N-w 16-day Average Temperature (Sun & Mon),

I get an eventual CET of about 19.72c.

(20.14 x 29) + (14.41 + 12.79) / 31 = 19.72c.

or 611.26 / 31 = 19.72c.

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Using the Netweather UK Temperature Tracker + an approximation of GFS Max / Min Temps average for Sun & Mon,

I get an eventual CET of around 19.99c.

(20.14 x 29) + ((22+15)/2 + (21+13)/2) / 31 = 19.99c.

or 619.56 / 31 = 19.99c.

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Either way, it looks as though the Hadley record will be broken by around 0.2c,

and even the Manley record may be under threat by around 0.1c.

Imagine the interest amongst us and the media if this month breaks the 20c average barrier.

It's very likely as the N-w tracker is still at 20.14c!

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If this month is around 20c, this means the current average for the year so far is 10.28c.

(4.66 + 4.08 + 5.03 + 8.81 + 12.6 + 16.8 + ~20.0) / 7 = 10.28c to 2 decimal places.

The average annual temperature for the year so far is 9.24c.

(4.20 + 4.20 + 6.30 + 8.10 + 11.3 + 14.1 + 16.5) / 7 = 9.24c to 2 decimal places.

Therefore this year up to July is about 1c above average.

Doesn't sound alot but believe me it is a big difference.

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This is alot to digest I know, but it's been an amazing month temperature-wise,

and it could very well be an amazing year with only 2 months so far below the average.

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I'm pretty sure I've been keeping correct records for this month but my CET is currently 24.2C!!!

Wow - 24.2c? That's more like a mediterranean CET isn't it?

What's your average minimum and average maximum temperature?

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Edited July 29, 2006 by Thundersquall

[West is Best]

I don't actually think the 20C mark will be broken. It should finish around 19.9 to 19.95 I think. Whatever happens, the media will report this as the hottest month on record because the 19.5C of Hadley will be taken as the previous one to beat - assuming, that is, that Hadley don't come up with some very low figure as they seemed to in June.

Edit - by the way Thundersquall I think you've gone a bit awry with your NW calculations. You can't really be seriously suggesting Sunday and Monday will be 14.41 and 12.79!

Edited July 29, 2006 by West is Best

[osmposm]

Looking at what Phil has for his values for past Julies (and its a real word!).......

Hmmm, Mr D, I'm not so sure....at least in normal British usage.

The general rule for proper names ending in a consonant and a -y is to pluralize with an -s: thus "The Kennedys are an interesting family" or "I know a number of Sallys". It becomes confusing with the months of the year, as they have an odd, only semi-proper status - and certainly "Januaries & Februaries" is the norm (though the Cambridge estate agent is called "Januarys" and there's a band called "The Februarys"!). But there is also an overriding rule with plurals: that if any rule-based pluralizing causes confusion, then the rule may be broken...and "Julies" is certainly very confusing. In any case the Oxford English Dictionary seems quite clear on the matter: July n. (pl.~s).

I humbly submit that it should be "Julys" !

[Thundersquall]

I don't actually think the 20C mark will be broken. It should finish around 19.9 to 19.95 I think. Whatever happens, the media will report this as the hottest month on record because the 19.5C of Hadley will be taken as the previous one to beat - assuming, that is, that Hadley don't come up with some very low figure as they seemed to in June.

Edit - by the way Thundersquall I think you've gone a bit awry with your NW calculations. You can't really be seriously suggesting Sunday and Monday will be 14.41 and 12.79!

Well, N-w 16-day average predicts Sunday and Monday will be this cool (now up to 14.18 and 12.82 respectively).

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=tmp;sess=

Edited July 29, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Methuselah]

Hmmm, Mr D, I'm not so sure....at least in normal British usage.

The general rule for proper names ending in a consonant and a -y is to pluralize with an -s: thus "The Kennedys are an interesting family" or "I know a number of Sallys". It becomes confusing with the months of the year, as they have an odd, only semi-proper status - and certainly "Januaries & Februaries" is the norm (though the Cambridge estate agent is called "Januarys" and there's a band called "The Februarys"!). But there is also an overriding rule with plurals: that if any rule-based pluralizing causes confusion, then the rule may be broken...and "Julies" is certainly very confusing. In any case the Oxford English Dictionary seems quite clear on the matter: July n. (pl.~s).

I humbly submit that it should be "Julys" !

I do like a warm wet Julie, though...

[Thundersquall]

It really depends on how much sunshine there is tomorrow and Monday.

If there's lots of sunshine the July 2006 average temperature may well be over 20c.

[West is Best]

Well, N-w 16-day average predicts Sunday and Monday will be this cool (now up to 14.18 and 12.82 respectively).

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=tmp;sess=

Really that's just a lesson in how inaccurate such automated systems are. If you were to get average temps anything like that on Sunday and Monday I'd run naked from Land's End to John O'Groats. It's slightly pointless posting up CET's based on something of that nature. Even GFS, which has a bad habit of under-estimating temps by 3C or more, has the Sunday and Monday minima in the CET zone at 11-17 and 13-17 respectively with the maxima at 20-25 and 20-22C respectively (thus averaging 18.1C). The BBC, which is much more accurate with temps on its national maps has temps a few degrees up on this. Either way the means for Sunday and Monday will in no way whatsoever only be 14.18 and 12.82.

Edit - by the way, by a stroke of fortune most of the cloud in the CET zone is going to pass overnight. This will help the sunshine record to be broken (thanks thought to folks for pointing out the Philip Eden-Areal difference - should be academic now I hope!).

Edited July 29, 2006 by West is Best

[PhilipEden]

Hmmm, Mr D, I'm not so sure....at least in normal British usage.

The general rule for proper names ending in a consonant and a -y is to pluralize with an -s: thus "The Kennedys are an interesting family" or "I know a number of Sallys". It becomes confusing with the months of the year, as they have an odd, only semi-proper status - and certainly "Januaries & Februaries" is the norm (though the Cambridge estate agent is called "Januarys" and there's a band called "The Februarys"!). But there is also an overriding rule with plurals: that if any rule-based pluralizing causes confusion, then the rule may be broken...and "Julies" is certainly very confusing. In any case the Oxford English Dictionary seems quite clear on the matter: July n. (pl.~s).

I humbly submit that it should be "Julys" !

I largely agree, except for Jans and Febs. All publishers I have worked with, and as far as I know all Fleet Street newspapers, will use Januarys and Februarys as well as Julys. The Guardian embarrassed itself in the 1980s by using a massive front-page headline referring to "T

I largely agree, except for Jans and Febs. All publishers I have worked with, and as far as I know all Fleet Street newspapers, will use Januarys and Februarys as well as Julys. The Guardian embarrassed itself in the 1980s by using a massive front-page headline referring to "THE TWO GERMANIES". It was after that, and a lot of internecine ribbing, that our national newspapers agreed on the -ys formula for all words beginning with a capital letter and ending with a "y".

Philip

[Weather-history]

Hmmm, Mr D, I'm not so sure....at least in normal British usage.

The general rule for proper names ending in a consonant and a -y is to pluralize with an -s: thus "The Kennedys are an interesting family" or "I know a number of Sallys". It becomes confusing with the months of the year, as they have an odd, only semi-proper status - and certainly "Januaries & Februaries" is the norm (though the Cambridge estate agent is called "Januarys" and there's a band called "The Februarys"!). But there is also an overriding rule with plurals: that if any rule-based pluralizing causes confusion, then the rule may be broken...and "Julies" is certainly very confusing. In any case the Oxford English Dictionary seems quite clear on the matter: July n. (pl.~s).

I humbly submit that it should be "Julys" !

Well whatever, it is certainly in my Collins Dictionary as Julies

Also

http://en.thinkexist.com/dictionary/meaning/julies/

http://www.php.org.pl/slownik/Julies.html

http://dict.die.net/julies/

http://onlinedictionary.datasegment.com/word/julies

[MP-R]

That still sounds abnormally high, the weatheronline records this month for your region show a much lower average. Are you sure your station is not recieving sunlight?

It has been a warm month for sure, but an average of 24.2°C would require (for example), an average max of 30.0°C and minima of 18.4°C.

That's, to a certain extent, what I've been having for quite some days. I don't understand what the problem is with my records. I take hourly readings, type them into my excel document for them and ask excel to make a daily average. It does it automatically and so I take the average as being true. My CET has gone down to 23.9C now but that still doesn't sound right.

[Thundersquall]

That's, to a certain extent, what I've been having for quite some days. I don't understand what the problem is with my records. I take hourly readings, type them into my excel document for them and ask excel to make a daily average. It does it automatically and so I take the average as being true. My CET has gone down to 23.9C now but that still doesn't sound right.

Is it possible to see a copy of your Microsoft Excel document on here to see if it's calculating correctly?

Edited July 29, 2006 by Thundersquall

[paul tall]

That's, to a certain extent, what I've been having for quite some days. I don't understand what the problem is with my records. I take hourly readings, type them into my excel document for them and ask excel to make a daily average. It does it automatically and so I take the average as being true. My CET has gone down to 23.9C now but that still doesn't sound right.

It is certain from your daily posts in Current Conditions that your temperatures during the day are artificially high by a degree or two or three.

This is the reason your average is so high. Simple as that.

[The PIT]

Well at the present time ours is 20C should drop a little in the next few days but easily the warmesy July ever for us since 1955. Rainfall close to average despite only 3 days of measurable rain.

Edited July 29, 2006 by The PIT