Super Typhoon Ioke

[parmenides3]

Anyone else here think that STY Ioke is a contender for the title of the 'perfect storm'? I think I'm right in saying it's ten days old, now, and if the JMA are right, still has three or four days more life in it at least.

P

[south_holland_uk]

A truely amazing storm, I will definately be watching this space for the duration!

[Brrr]

From www.TheHawaiichannel.com TV

HONOLULU -- Typhoon Ioke, the strongest Central Pacific tropical storm in more than a decade, continues to barrel toward recently-evacuated Wake Island.

The storm is predicted to submerge the 2.5-square-mile atoll and destroy everything on it that isn't concrete, forecasters said. National Weather Service lead forecaster Jeff Powell calls it "a monster storm."

The isle's entire population of some 200 residents left via two Air Force evacuation flights to Hawaii on Monday. All were either U.S. military personnel, defense department civilians or military contractors.

The typhoon is expected to reach Wake Island at 1 a.m. on Thursday, Hawaii time, with winds of up to 161 mph and gusts of up to 195 mph.

Belinda

[parmenides3]

Just for you, then:

Take a note of the lines of lat. & long. & work out how big this baby is.

P

Edited August 30, 2006 by parmenides3

[Brrr]

Just for you, then:

Take a note of the lines of lat. & long. & work out how big this baby is.

P

The Advisory states HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

So... pretty big then

[Rustynailer]

Nobody around now, exept ghosts

http://khon.com/khon/displayStory.cfm?storyID=15054

Edited August 30, 2006 by Rustynailer

[P.K.]

P.K that would be really interesting to see how this compares to previous storms. Must be a contender for longest period of cat4/5 winds!?!

No idea, I don't ever consider storms in ten minute basins in the SS scale.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 301800UTC 18.1N 169.2E GOOD

MOVE NW 09KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

50KT 100NM

30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 311800UTC 20.1N 166.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

48HF 011800UTC 21.7N 161.3E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

72HF 021800UTC 23.6N 155.0E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 15KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 100KT

[iain123]

Here's a nice little animation i made from the met office sat images, what id like to know is, if it was a Cat 5 on Saturday night what is it now, look how much its grown in just the last 12 hours, i think if you put this thing over Australia now it would go from coast to coast, does anyone no where to find the current see level atmospheric pressure estimate,

I read in a special news flash that ioke slipped through a hole in the pacific and re-emerged in the Atlantic, I think there going to need to evacuate Mexico and southern usa maybe Venezuela and Columbia as well depends which way it swings, this pictures to scale by the way that’s how big it would be,

I cant get my quick time animation to post any one no why

[Brrr]

Quite a nice pic/animation here from Japan Meteorological http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/

Just out of curiosity for all the hurricane/typhoon experts - will this likely maintain strength all the way to Hong Kong/Japan :o ?

Belinda

[Kain]

Just out of interest, why is it called a Super Typhoon?

I mean we don't get Super Hurricanes?

Kain

[SnowBear]

Here's a nice little animation i made from the met office sat images, what id like to know is, if it was a Cat 5 on Saturday night what is it now, look how much its grown in just the last 12 hours, i think if you put this thing over Australia now it would go from coast to coast, does anyone no where to find the current see level atmospheric pressure estimate,

I read in a special news flash that ioke slipped through a hole in the pacific and re-emerged in the Atlantic, I think there going to need to evacuate Mexico and southern usa maybe Venezuela and Columbia as well depends which way it swings, this pictures to scale by the way that’s how big it would be,

I cant get my quick time animation to post any one no why

Hiya iain123 :o

Ok, firstly, the reason why your Q-time file wont upload is probably because Q-time files are not allowed to be posted in the permissions for Net-Weather forum.

Ioke's tropical storm force winds extend to roughly 520 Nautical miles across, or, approximately 600 standard miles, a distance which is roughly from Thurso in the northern tip of Scotland, to Land's End in Cornwall, a little smaller than Australia which is approx. 2500+ across and 2000+ from north to south.

Estimated pressure is, 920mb.

Ioke is in the middle of the Pacific, near the Wake Island/Atoll, an atlas will show you where that is. Ioke is not likely to enter the Atlantic or effect any of the Northern or Southern Americas.

Just out of interest, why is it called a Super Typhoon?

I mean we don't get Super Hurricanes?

Kain

Hiya Kain!

Little page here explains quite well, courtesy of those good folks at NOAA! :lol:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A3.html

Quite a nice pic/animation here from Japan Meteorological http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/

Just out of curiosity for all the hurricane/typhoon experts - will this likely maintain strength all the way to Hong Kong/Japan :lol: ?

Belinda

Well, according to this forecast track, Ioke is supposed to lessen in intensity as it nears the Japan Islands, down from 160mph winds to 120mph at the last forecast position on that plot. Not too sure if it will reach Japan itself? Maybe graze the very northern parts.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0106.gif

Edited August 31, 2006 by SnowBear

[iain123]

So i suppose what your saying is if ioke were over the uk it would look something like this

Not to far off the size of Australia if you ask me, storm force winds maybe not, but if were considering areas influenced by the storm defiantly, check the latest met office globe shot with Australia clearly visible at the bottom.

Edited August 31, 2006 by iain123

[P.K.]

I read in a special news flash that ioke slipped through a hole in the pacific and re-emerged in the Atlantic, I think there going to need to evacuate Mexico and southern usa maybe Venezuela and Columbia as well depends which way it swings, this pictures to scale by the way that’s how big it would be,

I cant get my quick time animation to post any one no why

This is more of a threat to Japan, it will not hit Mexico.

Just out of interest, why is it called a Super Typhoon?

I mean we don't get Super Hurricanes?

Technically it is not called a supertyphoon at all. Unofficially the JTWC refer to these as supertyphoons, I think they may also refer to hurricanes of sufficient strength as superhurricanes as well.

934.0hPa reported by Wake Island.

[parmenides3]

Where's the Wake Island report from, P.K.?

P

[Brrr]

Well, according to this forecast track, Ioke is supposed to lessen in intensity as it nears the Japan Islands, down from 160mph winds to 120mph at the last forecast position on that plot. Not too sure if it will reach Japan itself? Maybe graze the very northern parts.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0106.gif

From that it looks like Tokyo could get a bit of a breezy day then... !!... thanks SnowBear

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well the eye wall of Ioke has passed over Wake Island. Whilst on another forum I found a TAF for Wake, it's the most fascinating one I've ever seen:

TAF PWAK 302222 01035G55KT 1600 TSRA SCT005 OVC020CB QNH2900INS

BECMG 0506 34050G75KT 0100 +TSRA BLPY BKN005 OVC020CB

BECMG 1011 34095G150KT 0100 +TSRA BLPY BKN005 OVC010CB

The latter one is winds of 95kts gusting to 150kts...pretty cool TAF!

Plus here's tide and met data for Wake just before the mayhem started:

Wake Is tide and met info

JMA doesn't forecast Ioke weaken in the next 48+ hours. Here's their latest advisory:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 31 Aug 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 310900UTC 19.5N 166.9E GOOD

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

50KT 100NM

30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 010900UTC 21.4N 163.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

45HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.7E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

69HF 030600UTC 24.6N 153.3E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 13KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 100KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

BBC Weather website World News section has the following today:

Whole island evacuated as super typhoon makes final approach by Sean Batty

Earlier in the week we said that ex hurricane Ioke, which is now a super typhoon could be heading towards the tiny Mid-Pacific island of Wake. We expect the storm to smash into Wake later this afternoon.

The island is home to a U.S Air Force base, which has around 200 personnel based at it. U.S authorities evacuated the entire island of people on Monday afternoon and flying them to the safe haven of Hawaii.

The decision was taken after forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) showed that the storms eye would cross directly over the island.

It will also bring a surge of water up to 30ft (9.1 metres) in height which could submerge many parts of the 2.5 square mile island, where the highest point is around 18ft, bringing devastation to the island.

According to a NWS forecaster, Ioke is currently ranked the fifth-strongest storm ever seen in the Central Pacific, and is the first Category 5 storm in the region since 1994.

The typhoon is one of the longest-sustained storms in world history, having stayed at Category 4 for a week. Current winds in this monster are whipping round at a steady speed of 155mph, while gusts have been reported in excess of an astonishing 190mph.

The island saw another devastating typhoon nearly 40 years ago. "Sarah" roared through with winds just as strong. National Weather Service accounts say torrential rains battered the island. Buildings were ripped apart.

The water went right across Wake Island and, for a short time, it was submerged.

Those brought to safety aren't sure what will be left when Ioke's gone but grateful to be far from the path of the typhoon.

Edited August 31, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[P.K.]

Where's the Wake Island report from, P.K.?

P

From what I've read a Frenchman decided to stay on the island at a height of only about 8m and take observations although the ones on the link given will be from automatic equipment.

[Somerset Squall]

What year did Typhoon Sarah hit Wake Island TH?

[P.K.]

What year did Typhoon Sarah hit Wake Island TH?

Think the reference is to 1967. http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/yohou/typhoon/data/T6727.png

Edited August 31, 2006 by P.K.

[Somerset Squall]

Cheers PK.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ioke now looks to be heading in the direction of Iwo Jima if I'm not mistaken. Looks more and more likely it could end up hitting mainland Japan. Here's the latest forecast from JMA, they still want to keep Ioke at 105kts for 45+ hours:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 1 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 010300UTC 21.0N 164.0E GOOD

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

50KT 100NM

30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 020300UTC 22.6N 159.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

45HF 030000UTC 23.9N 154.2E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

69HF 040000UTC 25.8N 149.5E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 100KT

[SnowBear]

Certainly does look like its making a bee line for Japan, the curve in Ioke's path has flattened quite a bit and the track being being further south almost each model run. At the moment, the npmoc model shows Ioke laying a day from Tokyo with 120mph winds and 150mph gusts (approx equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane in the Atlantic). The npmoc track at the moment also lies uncomfortably close to a landfall very near Tokyo too.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Yes Ioke is predicted to weaken somewhat as it progresses towards Japan, as regards to Wake Island it took a direct hit and anything not built from concrete was flattened but as the Island is primarily a US air force base and did have 200 people (evacuated) working there, there was no cause for concern. Interesting to note a 30 foot storm surge proved that the whole Island was submerged for a time!

[Rustynailer]

From what I've read a Frenchman decided to stay on the island at a height of only about 8m and take observations although the ones on the link given will be from automatic equipment.

I have had this Frenchman on my mind since you posted it, i hope he made it, even though most non weather people, would say he was silly, i think he is very brave, staying to take obs' so that people can learn. If he didn't make it then , i am sorry and express condolences to his familey and friends.

Russ

Does anyone know how to find out if he is OK?

Edited September 1, 2006 by Rustynailer