Autumn And Winter

[Anti-Mild]

Hang on, I won't have it that Daniel is anything but objective in his assessments cut and pastes from IAN regarding the next ice age.

:lol:

I'm sure that Daniel is really nice and all that but in terms of hopecasters, especially those who have absolutely no basis in fact, he's the top dog!

Whenever I see that he has started a new thread in the Environment Change forum I cringe ! Only thing is, it's like a car crash.....you can't help but look :lol: !

Edited August 31, 2006 by Anti-Mild

[johnholmes]

Whenever I see that he has started a new thread in the Environment Change forum I cringe :lol: ! Only thing is, it's like a car crash.....you can't help but look !

so true!

[Wynn D Woo]

:lol:

I'm sure that Daniel is really nice and all that but in terms of hopecasters, especially those who have absolutely no basis in fact, he's the top dog!

Whenever I see that he has started a new thread in the Environment Change forum I cringe ! Only thing is, it's like a car crash.....you can't help but look :lol: !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Whenever I see that he has started a new thread in the Environment Change forum I cringe ! Only thing is, it's like a car crash.....you can't help but look !

so true!

You don't need to look you know what it is about...iminently :lol: :lol:

BFTP

[Snowyowl9]

Very wise words Anti-mild.

I remember last Autumn reading forecast's for the US based on SST's that they were going to have a very harsh winter and yet apart from early Dec the rest of the winter was above average. I believe that when it comes to a LRF you have as much chance of being correct by using instincts than science. For example if somebody posted a forecast in Nov for Dec/Jan/Feb based on instincts and then you compared this forecast to someone who used SST's/teleconnections, both IMO would have an equal chance of being correct.

This summer has been a very good example because back in May WIB suggested a very warm/hot June & July and by what I read a majority of his forecast was based on instincts and yet he was the only one to be right on this forum.

Im sure science is the answer to a successful LRF but at the moment nobody IMO has enough understanding of SST's/Teleconnections etc to understand how they affect our climate. Due to so many factors going into making our climate instincts is just as good as science in making a successful LRF at the moment.

I based my autumn mini forecast on instincts earlier in this thread it`ll be interesting to see how much of it will happen it would be great if it did but I`ll be surprised if it did happen like that.

But it`s along while until the end of november anything can happen and usually does surprise when you least expect it too.

As far as the SST`s/Teleconnections it`s very interesting and complex at the same time,so I`ll leave that to the experts on here GP/S.Murr/SB to solve it`s all very new to me,I`ve always been interested in the weather patterns,they always use to show the pressure charts on the bbc weather years ago,I`d rather see those types of charts,back in 1986 they had those I remember it well when they showed the Scandi high bringing those juicey 1st n.e. winds for the start of that amazingly long cold winter.

S9

[The Enforcer]

I will eat my hat if this winter provides a below average CET or above average snowfall. You can find statistics and forecasts to show whatever you want them to show at this stage as it is all speculation. The only fact that will count is once winter is over and yet again it has thrown more weight behind the argument that winters in the UK are not the same as they were prior to the 90's.

Surely there's a contradiction there. I agree that at this range there are too many unknowns - but then you make some assumptions yourself.

I do find myself having to agree with the gist of what you are saying, however, I am afraid you will have to be more specific with these sort of predictions to get your message across.

1. Forget CET. It's purely a statistical distraction. What happens 'on the ground' is more important as snowfalls can occur at any point during a winter regardless as to how the CET behaves.

2. It has to be acknowledged that winter is 'trying' to make a comeback. There are a lot of factors still stopping this from happening - the mistake many people on here make is to only identify the ones that are helpful to winter and ignore the rest - and this is resulting in what I term a 'patchwork' winter in that wintry incursions have enough punch to penetrate some areas, but not others. Run the 'wintry incursion' programme enough times during the winter season and some areas can accrue 'above average' snowfall, whereas others will inevitably see none.

3. You haven't defined what series you are using to define average snowfall.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Whilst I can see the logic behind the factors that currently appear to be indicating a colder winter in store, these are only a few of the factors that are relevant. Brickfielder has identified some that indicate a mild start to the winter and others that indicate that it will then stay mild. Experience tells me that winter never fits into nice neat little patterns and colder intervals can spring up at any time and usually with not much notice (n.b. those who rely on T+300 onwards for their analysis) even in the mildest of winters [the impact of such incursions is another debate]. This also works in reverse to use the example of 2005/2006 colder and dry, but with a mild, frostless January. I certainly haven't seen any signals of the kind that would generate a 1962/63 type of winter, so that kind of comparison is probably premature.

I agree. There are one or two (underestimating slightly) on here who would see signs of a cold winter in the flames of a garden bonfire! Whatever we get is likely to be a mix of the usual ups and downs, with more ups than downs likely.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Also, a cold winter isn't always a snowy one.

Mr Data likes to quote the examples of 1963/64 and 1993/94. Their "snowiness scores" on my winter snow ranking system were 13 and 26 respectively- yet 1963/64 was the colder of the two across the southern half of Britain.

[SMU]

I agree. There are one or two (underestimating slightly) on here who would see signs of a cold winter in the flames of a garden bonfire! Whatever we get is likely to be a mix of the usual ups and downs, with more ups than downs likely.

You said that last winter with respect to temperatures & was wrong-

Its funny how 'some' People who say they dont believe in LRF's but always manage to comment with positive 'spin' towards the mild & wet Orientated ones & negative 'Spin' towards the cold ones-

The SSTA anomaly in the atlantic makes some difference but isnt the only thing effecting the Late Autumn / Early Winter outlook-

S

[Zerouali lives]

Also, a cold winter isn't always a snowy one.

Mr Data likes to quote the examples of 1963/64 and 1993/94. Their "snowiness scores" on my winter snow ranking system were 13 and 26 respectively- yet 1963/64 was the colder of the two across the southern half of Britain.

And last winter was a perfect example of that - stubborn high pressure in the right area producing sharp overnight frosts with temperatures struggling to recover through the day. Great conditions for low CET values but quite poor for snow potential.

[Stratos Ferric]

You said that last winter with respect to temperatures & was wrong-

Its funny how 'some' People who say they dont believe in LRF's but always manage to comment with positive 'spin' towards the mild & wet Orientated ones & negative 'Spin' towards the cold ones-

The SSTA anomaly in the atlantic makes some difference but isnt the only thing effecting the Late Autumn / Early Winter outlook-

S

Steve,

It's a fact, whatever the snowmantics on here would wish, that in the typical UK winter there are likely to be more ups than downs, hence my carefully chosen words. Feel free to produce the facts that disprove this but a climatic regime defined as cool temperate by definition does NOT have relentlessly cold winters.

If indeed I did say it last year then I'm happy to say that in respect to last year the statement was wrong.

If you're suggesting that I'm one of the "some" people then I think you'll find that any support I give for milder outlooks is not based on efficacy of forecast so much as on statistical likelihood. It's nothing to do with "spin". For sure, there are one or two people on here who put enormous effort, and in some instances not a little ego, into their forecasts, but as they tend to prove, for all the endeavour reliability is still low.

[SMU]

Steve,

It's a fact, whatever the snowmantics on here would wish, that in the typical UK winter there are likely to be more ups than downs, hence my carefully chosen words. Feel free to produce the facts that disprove this but a climatic regime defined as cool temperate by definition does NOT have relentlessly cold winters.

If indeed I did say it last year then I'm happy to say that in respect to last year the statement was wrong.

If you're suggesting that I'm one of the "some" people then I think you'll find that any support I give for milder outlooks is not based on efficacy of forecast so much as on statistical likelihood. It's nothing to do with "spin". For sure, there are one or two people on here who put enormous effort, and in some instances not a little ego, into their forecasts, but as they tend to prove, for all the endeavour reliability is still low.

Statistically yes you would favour a milder than ave winter - however we are in 'Change' & 'recent' historical statistics circa 20/30 years are as useful in these situations as a chocolate teapot-

We are already seeing an anomolous strong Polar Vortex- which is very early for August, This is almost a guarentour of a deep cold pool developing- once again because of the Hemispheric patterns being distorted away from the Norm ( as evident by the massive July temp anomaly) one can assume that this winter is already heading towards extreme rather than 'norm'-

You know as well as I do there is 'just' enough evidence stacked over the last few years to be able to say- this winter isnt going to be the normal mild & wet.....

globally thats extreme not locally-

S

Edited August 31, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Stratos Ferric]

Statistically yes you would favour a milder than ave winter - however we are in 'Change' & 'recent' historical statistics circa 20/30 years are as useful in these situations as a chocolate teapot-

We are already seeing an anomolous strong Polar Vortex- which is very early for August, This is almost a guarentour of a deep cold pool developing- once again because of the Hemispheric patterns being distorted away from the Norm ( as evident by the massive July temp anomaly) one can assume that this winter is already heading towards extreme rather than 'norm'-

You know as well as I do there is 'just' enough evidence stacked over the last few years to be able to say- this winter isnt going to be the normal mild & wet.....

S

I think a few of us on here have, over the past 2-3 years, observed that there might be the start of a change in direction in recent trend. The question remains though, is it a temporary levelling off, or is it the start of a reverse? You follow the TCs far more closely than I do, so I shall bow to your judgement regarding the early portents. There are other factors that suggest a run of cooler winters may be due; Philip I know favours a cycle that has low points in the next two or three years. I think the problem I have with any forecasts of extreme cold, as discussed in the <1C thread, is that the baseline has nudged up a long way since, say, 78/9, let alone 62/3. So long as we have SSTs around the UK that are warmer than normal there is always going to be either modification of cold air from the north, or else more energy than normal pumped into the jet reducing the likelihood of the sort of block that would produce sustained easterlies.

There has certainly been a trend in recent winters towards pronounced blocking late in winter, but this has produced neither exceptionally cold nor particularly snowy conditions. Yes, good in the context of the "modern" winter, but against a broader frame of reference less spectacular.

As I mentioned elsewhere yesterday, the one thing that has caught my eye recently is the -ve surface anomaly in the arctic. IF this persists, then things might get interesting.

[Thundery wintry showers]

So long as we have SSTs around the UK that are warmer than normal there is always going to be either modification of cold air from the north, or else more energy than normal pumped into the jet reducing the likelihood of the sort of block that would produce sustained easterlies.

There has certainly been a trend in recent winters towards pronounced blocking late in winter, but this has produced neither exceptionally cold nor particularly snowy conditions. Yes, good in the context of the "modern" winter, but against a broader frame of reference less spectacular.

As I mentioned elsewhere yesterday, the one thing that has caught my eye recently is the -ve surface anomaly in the arctic. IF this persists, then things might get interesting.

Those closely match my current views. I'm watching that cold anomaly with interest, though it could easily be blasted away by warm SW'lys, undoing all of the good "work" that has been done in terms of cold pooling generation. I can't remember seeing such a significant cold anomaly around the pole since I started looking at the NOAA's temp anomaly maps.

[Stratos Ferric]

Those closely match my current views. I'm watching that cold anomaly with interest, though it could easily be blasted away by warm SW'lys, undoing all of the good "work" that has been done in terms of cold pooling generation. I can't remember seeing such a significant cold anomaly around the pole since I started looking at the NOAA's temp anomaly maps.

The polar jet has been pretty active right arund the globe the past few weeks, and at a time of year when days are long and net radiation is +ve, this might have something to do with an "anomaly anomaly" which is, as you suggest, fairly negative, and not just (though it is especially so) around the pole. There's a breakdown due soon; let's see what happens if we get a more settled spell and the PFJ gets nudged further poleward. There's no rationale for it being this far south over the Atlantic, save for that rather important cold pool in the NE pacific.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Statistically yes you would favour a milder than ave winter - however we are in 'Change' & 'recent' historical statistics circa 20/30 years are as useful in these situations as a chocolate teapot-

We are already seeing an anomolous strong Polar Vortex- which is very early for August, This is almost a guarentour of a deep cold pool developing- once again because of the Hemispheric patterns being distorted away from the Norm ( as evident by the massive July temp anomaly) one can assume that this winter is already heading towards extreme rather than 'norm'-

You know as well as I do there is 'just' enough evidence stacked over the last few years to be able to say- this winter isnt going to be the normal mild & wet.....

globally thats extreme not locally-

S

Steve

It has been my belief and I stand up as one of the 'callers' that we went through a longterm synoptic change in 2005. I will say there are not many who called it, indeed single figures. This is not look at me I got it right because it still may be a blip but it is becoming a big blip with more interest in sight with extra polar cooling. Now regarding this I stated that the arctic warming has been much more to do with synoptics and ocean temps rather than anything else. This cold pool we are seeing IMO is possibly a knock on effect of the synoptic change AND the finding that the oceans have lost 30% of their heat since 2003...and this heat has not been stored in the atmosphere...it has gone!

I do not think we are in a blip.

Reading the posts I believe you like the look of things

BFTP

[The Enforcer]

Lots about a cold Arctic pool here, but this does not do us much favour in September. Can it hang around for 3 months? Brickfielder is predicting an active-atlantic driven autumn, which tends to suggest warm air pumped northwards in time for January. Even if it is still anomalously low in January, how likely is it that this pool will get blasted in our direction as opposed to Siberia, Scandinavia, Eurasia or even the Mediterranean?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Lots about a cold Arctic pool here, but this does not do us much favour in September. Can it hang around for 3 months? Brickfielder is predicting an active-atlantic driven autumn, which tends to suggest warm air pumped northwards in time for January. Even if it is still anomalously low in January, how likely is it that this pool will get blasted in our direction as opposed to Siberia, Scandinavia, Eurasia or even the Mediterranean?

*sigh*

Don't get yourself all excited again, you know it'll end in tears

[SMU]

I think a few of us on here have, over the past 2-3 years, observed that there might be the start of a change in direction in recent trend. The question remains though, is it a temporary levelling off, or is it the start of a reverse? You follow the TCs far more closely than I do, so I shall bow to your judgement regarding the early portents. There are other factors that suggest a run of cooler winters may be due; Philip I know favours a cycle that has low points in the next two or three years. I think the problem I have with any forecasts of extreme cold, as discussed in the <1C thread, is that the baseline has nudged up a long way since, say, 78/9, let alone 62/3. So long as we have SSTs around the UK that are warmer than normal there is always going to be either modification of cold air from the north, or else more energy than normal pumped into the jet reducing the likelihood of the sort of block that would produce sustained easterlies.

There has certainly been a trend in recent winters towards pronounced blocking late in winter, but this has produced neither exceptionally cold nor particularly snowy conditions. Yes, good in the context of the "modern" winter, but against a broader frame of reference less spectacular.

As I mentioned elsewhere yesterday, the one thing that has caught my eye recently is the -ve surface anomaly in the arctic. IF this persists, then things might get interesting.

I do agree with that point & particularly the one in bold- We have BOTH pointed that out now-

I cant remember what Philip uses as the precursor for the due low points - I 'Think' its the solar minimum- which yes should be prevalent over the next couple of Winters.....

Lets hope this recent trend is the new Post even larger teapot rather than an outlier in the dataset-

S

Changing paradigms me ol mucker

Edited August 31, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Stratos Ferric]

AND the finding that the oceans have lost 30% of their heat since 2003...and this heat has not been stored in the atmosphere...it has gone!

I do not think we are in a blip.

Reading the posts I believe you like the look of things

BFTP

And the source for that startling revelation please...

[TEITS]

Steve

It has been my belief and I stand up as one of the 'callers' that we went through a longterm synoptic change in 2005. I will say there are not many who called it, indeed single figures. This is not look at me I got it right because it still may be a blip but it is becoming a big blip with more interest in sight with extra polar cooling. Now regarding this I stated that the arctic warming has been much more to do with synoptics and ocean temps rather than anything else. This cold pool we are seeing IMO is possibly a knock on effect of the synoptic change AND the finding that the oceans have lost 30% of their heat since 2003...and this heat has not been stored in the atmosphere...it has gone!

I do not think we are in a blip.

Reading the posts I believe you like the look of things

BFTP

You know what has cause this pattern change don't you?.

Ever since I joined this forum back in Oct 2004 I have forecasted nothing but E,lys and strangely enough that is exactly what happened in Feb 2005. So nature has finally given in to my demands and given me what I want.

Who need's science when im around .

Seriously though I did make a post about synoptic change back in March 2005 if anyone remembers

Edited September 1, 2006 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Anti-Mild]

Seriously though I did make a post about synoptic change back in March 2005 if anyone remembers

If my addled brain cells allow me to accurately remember that far back then I can recall both you, TEITS, and KW mentioning something. You, I believe, mentioned something about a lack of zonality whereas Kold focused on the unusual behaviour of the PFJ.

[noggin]

It's great to see that more and more people are noticing/observing a change. I have felt like a social pariah many times for expressing my opinion here regarding a cooldown. I maintain that the heat for our islands peaked a couple of years ago and that we are on a downward trend temperature-wise. OK, we've not had record-breaking cold, but there are some highs which it might take a few years to come down from.

Observation is what is required IMHO, never mind statistics....get out there and feel it and observe it!

[Stratos Ferric]

It's great to see that more and more people are noticing/observing a change. I have felt like a social pariah many times for expressing my opinion here regarding a cooldown. I maintain that the heat for our islands peaked a couple of years ago and that we are on a downward trend temperature-wise. OK, we've not had record-breaking cold, but there are some highs which it might take a few years to come down from.

Observation is what is required IMHO, never mind statistics....get out there and feel it and observe it!

There is argument that both matter, but statistics, used properly (the problem is that a lot of people don't know how to do so), avoid the filtering that is always present in observation (in the general sense that I take you to mean it Noggin). It's like a football fan saying that their team is playing better week by week, but the results going backwards.

A nice example of this is seen on these pages in the discussions of "how was [season] for you". Recent winters have had one or two respondents waxing on about how wintry winter was, where thos of a certain age or older, who can remember genuinely harsh winters, have been mystified. There is simple psychology at play to do with frames of reference and selective bias in recall. The one thing I know, indisputably, is that 1C is always 1C, and a day with snow is always a day with snow.

I forget who it was (JH I think) the other day who reminded the readers on here that meteorology is, at the end of the day, a science, and science requires empiricism.

[The Enforcer]

It's great to see that more and more people are noticing/observing a change.

There has certainly been a trend in recent winters towards pronounced blocking late in winter, but this has produced neither exceptionally cold nor particularly snowy conditions. Yes, good in the context of the "modern" winter, but against a broader frame of reference less spectacular.

This pattern change hasn't actually changed the 'on the ground' results, as yet.

Edited September 1, 2006 by The Enforcer