September CET

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is still 16.9C, personally i can not see a CET of less than 16.3C.

[Anti-Mild]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is still 16.9C, personally i can not see a CET of less than 16.3C.

I can't see it dropping below 16.7c.

[West is Best]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is still 16.9C

Though strictly speaking that figure is as of yesterday. Mind you, was glorious in the west country today with temps up to 22C. Worked outdoors in shirt sleeves and got sunburnt. Amazing!

Edited September 26, 2006 by West is Best

[The PIT]

Well with the mild weather continuing and a lack of days left in the month to make any real differance we can look forward to a 16.5C+ plus CET. Looking good for a record Autumn. Another year for sitting outside the pub until late on into the year. We can't have another one surely.

[su rui ke]

Though strictly speaking that figure is as of yesterday. Mind you, was glorious in the west country today with temps up to 22C. Worked outdoors in shirt sleeves and got sunburnt. Amazing!

It's stayed at 16.9 for the 1-26. I agree with Anti-Mild that 16.7 looks the lowest figure likely now - might even be 16.8 if Saturday is warm.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Has of yesterday 26th sept my average mean temp for the North east was 16.98c, the warmest september the north east has seen in the last 9 years

nigel

[PhilipEden]

It's stayed at 16.9 for the 1-26. I agree with Anti-Mild that 16.7 looks the lowest figure likely now - might even be 16.8 if Saturday is warm.

For those who are interested it was 16.94 after the 25th and 16.89 after the 26th. Some may also be interested that my Hadley CET emulation is running about 0.1degC higher than the Manley this month.

Philip

[West is Best]

For those who are interested it was 16.94 after the 25th and 16.89 after the 26th. Some may also be interested that my Hadley CET emulation is running about 0.1degC higher than the Manley this month.

Philip

Very interesting Philip. I'm beginning to think the September record is going to tumble ...

By the way, probably an impossible question this, but does anyone know the latest date after the summer on which the first air frost in England has been recorded?

[Weather-history]

By the way, probably an impossible question this, but does anyone know the latest date after the summer on which the first air frost in England has been recorded?

There were no air frosts during October 2001 recorded anywhere in England, so I think it was pretty late in 2001.

I'm not 100% sure that any air frosts was recorded in England during October 2005, I think it was the middle of November 2005 before the first air frost was recorded.

Edited September 27, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Scorcher]

There were no air frosts during October 2001 recorded anywhere in England, so I think it was pretty late in 2001.

I'm not 100% sure that any air frosts was recorded in England during October 2005, I think it was the middle of November 2005 before the first air frost was recorded.

I think I'm right in saying some places got close in mid September 2005, which is quite odd. I think some places recorded minimums only just above freezing on September 17th last year. Could you confirm this Mr Data?

[Weather-history]

I think I'm right in saying some places got close in mid September 2005, which is quite odd. I think some places recorded minimums only just above freezing on September 17th last year. Could you confirm this Mr Data?

Thats correct, in fact Shap and Benson recorded an air frost.

Edited September 27, 2006 by Mr_Data

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly, it was actually the remains of Hurricane Ophelia which casued the air frost during Mid-September 2005.

[Terminal Moraine]

Returning to a post made by Mr Data earlier in this thread, how interesting and anomalous the 1730s were.

The two warmest autumns on record, 3 years with a mean temp' of 10c or more when there had been only 1 in the previous 60 years and only 5 in the 80 years which followed, a January which was warmer than any we've experienced in the last 80 years ( o.k 1975 ran it very close ) and all in the middle of a period which was notable for the frequency of severe winters.

I'd love to know what happened to the general synoptics during the late 1720s and through the 1730s to cause all this, and why: what a major shock to the population it must have been when the winter of 1739/40 arrived.

I know years with a mean temp' of 10c or more are commonplace now but this is during a generally warm period, unless of course we suddenly enter a much colder phase. If this were to be the case would people look at the CET in many years to come and wonder what happened to the synoptics after the mid 1980s to cause such sudden anomalous warming?

Well, no they wouldn't because today we have a wealth of data to examine and all the answers would the there for the taking, but you get the point.

The late 1720s and the 1730s were contemporarily more anomalous than either of the last two decades and I'd love to know what caused it.

T.M

[summer blizzard]

If i had to name one thing, i would say that it was due to a Gliessburg Maxima around that time, the previous minimas being around the 1680's and 1810's.

[Guest Mike W]

The 1730's is no comparrioson really to recent years IMO and years that follow. This 'warm period' is longer and hotter and is only comparable to the Mediaval Warm period and Roman period.Hving said that Autumn 2005 is simialr to 1730 and '31, but then 1741 went 14.7, 11.0, 7.8 and that was after the coldest year on record not before it.

Edited September 27, 2006 by Mike W

[West is Best]

16.8C on Philip Eden's Manley site - going to be a close-run thing whether the 16.6C record falls or not. If he's right about the Hadley emulation being 01.C above his then there's a real chance.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Looks like 'Kippure' will win the 'forecast a CET' competition with his 16C, the remarkable thing is even this figure might well be 3/4 of a degree to low! I think I will run a league on this based over this month and the months to come so we can see who is 'king' or the luckiest at forecasting CET's based on a points system. i.e. 1 pt for being correct if you forecast the correct side of the CET - mild/warm, 3 pts for being the closest to the CET and an additional point for being within a degree centigrade.

Will start a thread on this soon!

Tim.

[Dawlish]

16.8C on Philip Eden's Manley site - going to be a close-run thing whether the 16.6C record falls or not. If he's right about the Hadley emulation being 01.C above his then there's a real chance.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Ouch! (he says crying into beer that may soon be someone else's).

[The PIT]

Two days left them beers could be rolling

I often wonder how accurate these ealrly readings are to be honest but thats another debate.

[West is Best]

I often wonder how accurate these ealrly readings are to be honest but thats another debate.

I agree Pit - there would be an argument for handing the record to this September even if it comes within 0.1C either side, purely on the grounds of uncertainty about the accuracy of the 1729 reading. Would be interested to see if people like Philip Eden and Mr Data have a view on this.

[West is Best]

Philip Eden has the CET holding at 16.8C up to midnight last night. With two days to go it is now almost certain the all-time September record will be at the very least equalled at 16.6C. If Philip is right that the Hadley figure is 0.1C above his then we're looking with increasing likelihood at the warmest September ever recorded in England. Coming on the back of this summer and July in particular it's another remarkable statistic.

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0609.htm

Edited September 29, 2006 by West is Best

[Thundery wintry showers]

There were no air frosts during October 2001 recorded anywhere in England, so I think it was pretty late in 2001.

I'm not 100% sure that any air frosts was recorded in England during October 2005, I think it was the middle of November 2005 before the first air frost was recorded.

I think there were one or two air frosts in Scotland around 22-24 October 2005 as a very brief Arctic incursion penetrated.

[West is Best]

Just for the record so this doesn't get lost because of the now more fulsome 'warmest ever recorded September' thread ... the official CET for September was 16.8C http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt

... and therefore the warmest September ever recorded.

[Dawlish]

Just for the record so this doesn't get lost because of the now more fulsome 'warmest ever recorded September' thread ... the official CET for September was 16.8C http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt

... and therefore the warmest September ever recorded.

So, Nobody guessed it correct. Guessing the record was beyond anyone!! Kippure was the closest, by the looks of it summer......what does he win!!

Paul

[Gray-Wolf]

So, Nobody guessed it correct. Guessing the record was beyond anyone!! Kippure was the closest, by the looks of it summer......what does he win!!

Paul

And Kippure notched his down from the outragous 16*c he posted first to a more reasonable 15.5*c half way through!!!