September CET

[Snowly does it]

Wow it's certainly been a warm period! If we hadn't have had that cold Jan-March period we might have been looking at a record year too.

We still could be if Sept does end up very high and October gets warm too.

On th other hand, if September broke the record but October was more towards 10 we could see a fourth consecutive fall in yearly CET depsite two record months.

Figures are strange

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Going by the GFS I'd be very surprised to see this month fall below 16C, I'm not sure what forum member will be the closest with their guess (sorry I mean forecasted CET), I wouldn't be surprised to see October 'plummet' down to near normal temps as per August after July.

Edited September 22, 2006 by Timmy H

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

I thought the record was 15.6C - (only going by the TWO CET record) or is this only for the 20th century??, either way it should be warmer than last years September which wasn't bad either!

[johnholmes]

mean temp here is at 17.7C, I've had many a June, July or August below that value. Seems unlikely it will lower much before the end of the month.

Edited September 22, 2006 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

Going by the GFS I'd be very surprised to see this month fall below 16C, I'm not sure what forum member will be the closest with their guess (sorry I mean forecasted CET), I wouldn't be surprised to see October 'plummet' down to near normal temps as per August after July.

I'm the main monthly forecaster on this site and I think of my CET predictions as guesses... It is very difficult to accurately predict one month ahead.

My Cleadon Temperature for September 1999 was: mean max 19.0, mean min 11.0, mean 15.0.

For September 2006 (provisionally) the values are max 19.9, min 13.2, and mean 16.6. Still 8 days to go, but that September 1999 figure looks highly likely to be beaten. Remarkable is that the minima have been as anomalously high as the maxima.

If September turns out warmer than August (which also seems likely), it will be the first time only since 1999 at this location.

[Dawlish]

Funny how things can change, which is why I've made no "spots" over the last few weeks!

18z shows a cooler last week of September in prospect. If that leads to cooler nights, even 16C is not certain. That run needs to stick for a while, but the trend, over the last 4 runs, has been towards a cooler end to September, than the models showed even 2 days ago. I've said all along that a Sept. max. CET temp record is unlikely and I'm sticking to that.

Paul

[su rui ke]

Funny how things can change, which is why I've made no "spots" over the last few weeks!

18z shows a cooler last week of September in prospect. If that leads to cooler nights, even 16C is not certain. That run needs to stick for a while, but the trend, over the last 4 runs, has been towards a cooler end to September, than the models showed even 2 days ago. I've said all along that a Sept. max. CET temp record is unlikely and I'm sticking to that.

Paul

But the number of days available to produce such a drop is fast running out! From yesterday's 18Z I get a CET of 15.5 for 23rd-27th and from today's 00Z 16.0 for the same period. That produces CETs of 16.6 and 16.7, respectively by the end of the 27th.

This weekend, at least, looks warm enough for the CET to stay the same or maybe even rise very slightly.

After that there is a cooling trend but still with maxima in the mid- to high-teens by 28th/29th and the nights don't look particularly cold. I still think the final CET will be closer to the record than it is to 16!

[Scorcher]

But the number of days available to produce such a drop is fast running out! From yesterday's 18Z I get a CET of 15.5 for 23rd-27th and from today's 00Z 16.0 for the same period. That produces CETs of 16.6 and 16.7, respectively by the end of the 27th.

This weekend, at least, looks warm enough for the CET to stay the same or maybe even rise very slightly.

After that there is a cooling trend but still with maxima in the mid- to high-teens by 28th/29th and the nights don't look particularly cold. I still think the final CET will be closer to the record than it is to 16!

I agree, it will take quite some drop for the CET to fall below 16C now. Daytime temperatures still look above average for the coming week, with most nights being warmer than average too. Time is running out for the CET to drop now.

[The PIT]

Well with no sign of any cold weather on the way in the near future a +16C CET is fairly certain. It's been a very interesting year so far. Early on Months coming in below average for the first time for a long way. June going crazy followed by a huge drop in temp.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Well with no sign of any cold weather on the way in the near future a +16C CET is fairly certain. It's been a very interesting year so far. Early on Months coming in below average for the first time for a long way. June going crazy followed by a huge drop in temp.

In the charts temperatures are atlast beginning to drop over the north of Scandinavia and things getting colder over canada. as for us the charts show a gradual cool down over the next few weeks.

Cool temperatures will eventually arrive... i hope

SNOW-MAN2006

[Weather-history]

Hi Philip, thanks for your reply

I actually got a reply from the Met Office

"Dear Mr Bradshaw

Your enquiry about Central England temperature was passed to me.

When I joined the "Synoptic Climatology" branch of the Met Office in

1978, Central England Temperature was being calculated on a routine

daily basis by the late Arthur Jenkinson using an average of 6 stations

in the English midlands. I do not know whether this began as soon as

1974, but by the 1970s data were in digital-computer form and it would

have been easy to backdate. I think Gordon Manley devoted his remaining

years after 1974 to assembling manuscript data for the mid 16th to mid

17th centuries in order to extend the Central England temperature

record back in time.

The Climatic Research Unit at the University of East

Anglia may be able to confirm this.

I hope this helps

Regards

David Parker"

A Phil Jones from the University of East Anglia has replied to me

"Dear Mr Bradshaw,

There were several CET series in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

There was a paper in Weather about them by David Jones in the

mid-1980s.

Gordon Manley came to a conference we organized in Norwich

in 1979. His talk was about possible extension of the series

back before 1659 from tree-ring data, win harvest dates etc.

I don't think he finished the work. His widow did send us his

working papers, but they were basically a collection of reprints

with no current manuscripts.

Best Regards

Phil

[Dawlish]

A Phil Jones from the University of East Anglia has replied to me

"Dear Mr Bradshaw,

There were several CET series in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

There was a paper in Weather about them by David Jones in the

mid-1980s.

Gordon Manley came to a conference we organized in Norwich

in 1979. His talk was about possible extension of the series

back before 1659 from tree-ring data, win harvest dates etc.

I don't think he finished the work. His widow did send us his

working papers, but they were basically a collection of reprints

with no current manuscripts.

Best Regards

Phil

Well done Kevin and thank you. Interesting emails, from both the Met Office and UEA. I think John was lucky to have met Gordon Manley. I'd have enjoyed meeting him too.

Paul

[Weather-history]

Noticing the sub headline: "Indian Summer?", I wouldn't really call any heat in September, an Indian summer. For me, if it occurs during October and November, then thats a true Indian summer spell. :huh:

[Scorcher]

For me this month has been remarkable for its lack of cool temperatures so far. Nearly everything has been average, with very few days or nights below average. Using Manchester as an example, the coolest maximum in September so far was 17C on the 14th, which I think is the average for that time in September.

[frozen_north]

Well here in Glasgow the coldest max has been 15C which is 1C below the September max.

[Weather-history]

Its been a while since we had a quirk in the CET such as April colder than March, November colder than December, March colder than January etc

The last occasion was March 1998 7.9, April 1998 7.7 , 8 and a half years ago.

Before 1998, here are the years where those type of quirks happened.

1995, 1993, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1985, 1981, 1980, 1978, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1969, 1965, 1964, 1962, 1957 etc.

So its pretty unusual to have such a length of gap between such quirks.

[WBSH]

My lame(ish) records show that so far max daytime temperatures in my location for September is actually 1.7c higher than August!

Only three days for September (so far) have been below 20c (68f) with the lowest "only" been 18c on the 2nd compared with the 9 days in August which were below 20c (68f).

Of course this is only for my location so it may be different for each individual but it's still interesting to compare!

WBSH

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 16.9C, because of this i now agree with Dawlish in that the record is unlikley to be beaten but the CET may be above 16C.

[conor123]

Luckily there is nothing coming this week to lower the CET.

Wednesday looks good again for rising the CET with temps

of 22-24c possible.

[Scorcher]

Perhaps there is still an outside chance of the record going. The CET has now gone back over 17C according to Philip Eden's site. Not really surprising when you consider most places didn't get below 15 or 16C last night and then rose into the low 20s during the day. I think we can safely say now that a 16C+ CET is a certainty. It's just a question of how far above that figure it will be.

[West is Best]

Its been a while since we had a quirk in the CET such as April colder than March, November colder than December, March colder than January etc

Speaking of quirks I'll pop something in the 'Yearly CET' thread about the 2002 quirk. http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...pid=788814&

Incidentally, Philip's current figure is 16.95C rounded up to 17C, rather than 'over 17C'. Splitting hairs, I know, but every fraction may count if the record is to fall!

Edited September 25, 2006 by West is Best

[su rui ke]

Speaking of quirks I'll pop something in the 'Yearly CET' thread about the 2002 quirk. http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...pid=788814&

Incidentally, Philip's current figure is 16.95C rounded up to 17C, rather than 'over 17C'. Splitting hairs, I know, but every fraction may count if the record is to fall!

Yes, it will be close - I'm 90% sure the final figure is going to be 16.6 +/- 0.1C now. It could come right down to the last day 'deciding' whether the record falls or not.

I honestly can't see why some people are still talking about it possibly falling by a whole degree in these last 6 days. That would require a CET of 12C from now until Saturday and none of those days looks like having a CET anywhere near as low as that!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

This Net-Weather Tool gives you an 'indication' o how temperatures will be over the next 16 days.

So you are quite right in saying what you did SRK.

Also, October looks like starting off well above average (although perhaps another topic me thinks).

[Dawlish]

The business of hoping/wishing for something and then constantly looking for things to fit the "forecast" that you are wishing for is soooo strange!! It grabs you and even though you know that what you are looking at is telling you a story, you don't really wish to know it and you still keep on maintaining that what you are wishing for is still likely to happen.

The psychology of posters on weather sites has fascinated me, ever since I first noticed this phenomenon, not long after I first began contributing to them.

Now I've been caught up in the same conundrum and it is so difficult to get out of!!

Look; I make a book on the odds of the Sept CET being warmer/colder than average. As usually happens, there are only so many participants (in this case, 5) so the stakes are stacked towards one particular outcome (a true book will only give a guaranteed outcome for a bookmaker if the amounts to be paid out either way are fairly equal - like the stakes from thousands of people on a fruit machine, or a roulette table. In the end, the house will win). I'll lose some virtual pints if the Sept CET is above 16C and I'll lose even more if the Sept CET goes to 16.6C, or above.

I'd love to pay out for a boozing session down the Smugglers, but I know and my punters know, that's quite unlikely to happen. It's for fun really, BUT (and here's the big BUT), the fact that I'm likely to come off down has affected my judgement!! I hung on, later than I should, looking at the gfs charts, in declaring that the Sept temp is likely to end up above 16C and somehow I'm refusing to admit to myself a reasonable possibility of the Sept CET being 16.6C.

It's potty!! Why?? it's there staring me in the face on the gfs and it has been for several days.

Why does a pretty rational person (well, I think I am, when it comes to writing about weather and climate) convince themselves that something is likely to happen, when all the evidence is pointing to exactly the opposite occurring??

There is a chance of 16.6C, su rui ke, you are right. With my highly sensible and see through glasses on now, I can admit it! I don't think it will, still; I think the last 2 days will scupper it - exactly what you imply, but the chance is there and it has increased over the last 4 days, since Gordon. I don't want it to; but what I'm wishing for doesn't count doody!

It is just weird. I see it all the time with people hoping for a cold winter; seeing cold pattern after cold pattern, in charts that are shouting that it is very unlikely to turn colder, or putting their faith in statistically useless, or well written individual forecasts; people really hoping for Britain to be battered by a gale and hoping that the probability cone will send an extra-tropical depression our way, with power, even though it is beyond the limits of that forecasts accuracy range and yet I find myself doing exactly the same thing, when I'm hoping something will happen!!

I understand folks and it is a rather salutary lesson to admit, but I will also learn from it; trust the stats and what quite believable things are telling you and don't let what you are hoping for cloud your judgement and your argument.

Ouch!

Paul

Edited September 25, 2006 by Dawlish

[Weather-history]

The warmest autumn on record are 1730 and 1731 with 11.8

So the very warm September has given a good base to have another chance to break it, we were well on course last year by mid-November to break it, then came that cold second half of November.

Say September 2006 is 16.7, then to equal that autumn CET of 11.8, October/November combination needs to average 9.35

That has been achieved on numerous occasions including last year

The warmest Sept/Oct combination is 2005 with 14.15

This September is warmer than Sept 2005, so we have got a chance of beating it. October 2006 doesn't have to be as warm as October 2005

Say again Sept 2006 is 16.7, to equal it October 2006 would only need a CET of 11.6

Edited September 26, 2006 by Mr_Data