September CET

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is now 16.7C.

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the Current GFS run the CET will end up at 16.3c by the 19th. That would be 2.6c above average, The record being set in 1949 when 16.3c was record so it would be unlikely we would equal or breach that due to a more than likely cooler second half.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is still 16.7C, which is 1.8C above the rolling average and would put us on course for a CET of 15.5C, i still think that my estimate of 15.2C is reasonable, due to a likelyhood of a cool final ten days of the month.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET has risen by 0.2C to 16.9C, aside from some warm nights, it looks as though we will lose the high maxima and the CET will probably fall back to around 16C by the 20th.

[Dawlish]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET has risen by 0.2C to 16.9C, aside from some warm nights, it looks as though we will lose the high maxima and the CET will probably fall back to around 16C by the 20th.

I think a 16C CET average, for this September is possible, at the moment. Hence the short odds I'm offering (some of those must interest yu SB!). 16C would be close to record-breaking.

Paul

Edited September 12, 2006 by Dawlish

[summer blizzard]

Dawlish, as my ensemble analysis in the technical model thread suggests, there is an increased likely hood of a pattern change after the 20th, this will most likely knock the CET back to around the 15C mark.

[Scorcher]

Dawlish, as my ensemble analysis in the technical model thread suggests, there is an increased likely hood of a pattern change after the 20th, this will most likely knock the CET back to around the 15C mark.

I personally think the CET will stay steady until at least the weekend- there have been some very high minima overnight and if temperatures can reach the low to mid 20s widely again it's possible that it could even rise today. If it's still above 16.5 by the 20th- which is possible, it's going to take a lot to drop it to 15C.

[Dawlish]

Dawlish, as my ensemble analysis in the technical model thread suggests, there is an increased likely hood of a pattern change after the 20th, this will most likely knock the CET back to around the 15C mark.

I agree, summer. Somewhere 15C - 15.5C is now more likely. Still exceptionally warm for Sept.

Paul

[Optimus Prime]

This september is looking extremely similar to last years September...generally very warm but with some night frosts. Last years CET averages out at 15.2c which is 1.5c above average.

Unless we get a cold snap late on this month a carbon copy of last years CET average looks likely.

Edited September 13, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[summer blizzard]

The CET has risen to 17.2C according to Phillip Eden, after the 15th, average weather looks likely, can somebody post the daily CET values needed to reach the figures below...

Tinybill: 11C

Stormchaser1: 12.6C

SteveB: 13C

Snowmaiden: 13.1C

Snowprincess: 13.3C

Cheeky_monkey: 13.4C

Optimus Prime: 13.5C

Steve Murr: 13.5C

Mr Sleet: 13.5C

Hiya: 13.6C

Viking141: 13.6C

Tesaro: 13.6C

Snowyowl9: 13.7C

Beng: 13.8C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 13.9C

The Abominable Snowman: 13.9C

Snowsure: 13.9C

Bottesford: 14C

Snowman2006: 14C

Ian Brown: 14C

Stargazer: 14.1C

kold weather: 14.2C

Jackone: 14.2C

Hammer: 14.2C

Shuggee 14.3C

Mr Maunder: 14.3C

Windswept: 14.4C

Anti-Mild: 14.4C

Nick F: 14.4C

Tugmistress: 14.4C

Wilson: 14.5C

PhilipEden: 14.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 14.5C

Stratos Ferric: 14.6C

Northern Light: 14.6C

Cymru: 14.6C

Bham Chris: 14.7C

Stricklands: 14.7C

ScandiHigh: 14.7C

Senior ridge: 14.7C

Great Plum: 14.8C

Steve M: 14.8C

AtmosFear: 14.9C

Terminal Moraine: 14.9C

Glacier Point: 14.9C

Scribbler: 14.9C

Roger J Smith: 15C

WindWatcher: 15C

Blast From The Past: 15.1C

West Is Best: 15.1C

Skiwi: 15.1C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

Timmy H: 15.2C

Summer of 95: 15.2C

Reef: 15.3C

Scorcher: 15.4C

The PIT: 15.5C

Thundery wintry showers: 15.5C

Rollo: 15.6C

Kippure: 16C

Edited September 14, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Weather-history]

The CET has risen to 17.2C according to Phillip Eden, after the 15th, average weather looks likely, can somebody post the daily CET values needed to reach the figures below...

Tinybill: 11C

Kippure: 16C

The range is from 6.3C for Tinybill to 15.1C for Kippure, everyone else is in between

Edited September 14, 2006 by Mr_Data

[J10]

Full Details as per SB request

Tinybill 6.3

Stormchaser1 9.1

SteveB 9.8

Snowmaiden 10.0

Snowprincess 10.3

Cheeky_monkey 10.5

Optimus Prime 10.7

Steve Murr 10.7

Mr Sleet 10.7

Hiya 10.8

Viking141 10.8

Tesaro 10.8

Snowyowl9 11.0

Beng 11.2

AtlanticFlamethrower 11.4

The Abominable Snowman 11.4

Snowsure 11.4

Bottesford 11.6

Snowman2006 11.6

Ian Brown 11.6

Stargazer 11.7

kold weather 11.9

Jackone 11.9

Hammer 11.9

Shuggee 12.1

Mr Maunder 12.1

Windswept 12.3

Anti-Mild 12.3

Nick F 12.3

Tugmistress 12.3

Wilson 12.4

PhilipEden 12.4

Michael Prys-Roberts 12.4

Stratos Ferric 12.6

Northern Light 12.6

Cymru 12.6

Bham Chris 12.8

Stricklands 12.8

ScandiHigh 12.8

Senior ridge 12.8

Great Plum 13.0

Steve M 13.0

AtmosFear 13.1

Terminal Moraine 13.1

Glacier Point 13.1

Scribbler 13.1

Roger J Smith 13.3

WindWatcher 13.3

Blast From The Past 13.5

West Is Best 13.5

Skiwi 13.5

Summer Blizzard 13.7

Timmy H 13.7

Summer of 95 13.7

Reef 13.8

Scorcher 14.0

The PIT 14.2

Thundery wintry showers 14.2

Rollo 14.4

Kippure 15.1

[summer blizzard]

Given that data, i think a CET between 15C and 15C is almost guaranteed.

[Thundery wintry showers]

thus a CET of 15.0 then?

(I'm guessing it was a misprint!)

[Weather-history]

September 1729 is the warmest September on record: 16.6C

It is also the oldest "warmest" month record, currently 276 years old

[Dawlish]

September 1729 is the warmest September on record: 16.6C

It is also the oldest "warmest" month record, currently 276 years old

I know, that's what I mean about September being so anomalous to the general warming trend. It just seems to step outside it!

Paul

[su rui ke]

September 1729 is the warmest September on record: 16.6C

It is also the oldest "warmest" month record, currently 276 years old

Using the GFS as a guide, the CET could still be at or above 16.6C by the 20th - which would still be above the 1971-2000 July average. It would, of course, be expected to fall towards the end of the month but around 16 doesn't look impossible. (This is not a forecast, by the way, just a comment on the trend!)

[Dawlish]

Using the GFS as a guide, the CET could still be at or above 16.6C by the 20th - which would still be above the 1971-2000 July average. It would, of course, be expected to fall towards the end of the month but around 16 doesn't look impossible. (This is not a forecast, by the way, just a comment on the trend!)

It is possible su rui ke. Not likely at the moment, but more possible than it was yesterday, if one believes the fast-changing charts at T+240+. I've altered my September CET odds as a result of you reminding me of the possibilities (note to self - stay alert: your odds needs a lert!).

Interesting that, last year, the CET was at exactly the same mark, on the 15th. OP referred to this a few days ago, but nothing is guaranteed summer, this far out (post yesterday). By the looks of today's charts, this September won't follow quite the same path, to 15.2C, as last September did.

Paul

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

What does the CET stand at the moment? with the Atlantic forecast to become more active next week I can still see central and southern parts still being on the warm side with no particular polar airmasses effecting the British Isles apart from the far north maybe later, as a guesstimate I reckon we're going to end up around high 15's maybe 16 - yet another ridiculously warm month.

[Dawlish]

What does the CET stand at the moment? with the Atlantic forecast to become more active next week I can still see central and southern parts still being on the warm side with no particular polar airmasses effecting the British Isles apart from the far north maybe later, as a guesstimate I reckon we're going to end up around high 15's maybe 16 - yet another ridiculously warm month.

Philip Eden has the Manley CET: 17.1°C (+2.5 degC) (Sep 1-15).

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Paul

[Weather-history]

September 1729 is the warmest September on record: 16.6C

It is also the oldest "warmest" month record, currently 276 years old

The length of warmest month CET records.

January record: 90 years

February record: 227 years

March record: 49 years

April record: 141 years

May record: 173 years

June record: 150 years

July record: 0

August record: 11 years

September record: 276 years

October record: 4 years

November record: 11 years

December record: 31 years (71 years)

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interesting Stats Mr D.

Has more than one record CET been broken in a year? We could be close this year, although personally, I think we'll be short. Still, without a doubt, a very warm September looks likely.

[Weather-history]

Interesting Stats Mr D.

Has more than one record CET been broken in a year? We could be close this year, although personally, I think we'll be short. Still, without a doubt, a very warm September looks likely.

1796, the warmest January on record at the time, followed by the joint warmest April on record at the time, followed by the joint second coldest December on record

Back in 1865, the warmest April on record was followed by the second warmest September on record.

1938, the warmest March on record at the time was followed by the second warmest November on record at the time

An interesting one from 1916, the warmest January on record was followed by the joint second coldest June on record

[Thundery wintry showers]

1995 came close with a record warm August, and then October was only 0.1C short of setting a record.

[Nick H]

Has more than one record CET been broken in a year?

In 1660 the records for April, June and November were all broken. But the CET had only been devised the previous year!

There are many examples of this in the second half of the 17th century.