September CET

[Weather-history]

If you think about it, the first taste of excess warmth wasn't felt until about the 25th of March, it didn't first reach 20C until May, the latest date since 1983.

For January, February and most of March, the first half of April, the second half of May, part of the second half of June and most of August, there was no real excess of warmth.

Most of it has occurred in July and September, part of it in May and June, the last week of March and a little bit in the second part of April.

Edited September 19, 2006 by Mr_Data

[su rui ke]

I notice that in the whole of the 1960s only two months (July 1967 and July 1969) had a CET higher than than the record September CET (16.6). So, this month really has been as warm - or warmer - than a typical 60s summer in CETland.

[Bottesford]

If you think about it, the first taste of excess warmth wasn't felt until about the 25th of March, it didn't first reach 20C until May, the latest date since 1983.

For January, February and most of March, the first half of April, the second half of May, part of the second half of June and most of August, there was no real excess of warmth.

Most of it has occurred in July and September, part of it in May and June, the last week of March and a little bit in the second part of April.

Short but sharp as it were...

[Weather-history]

An exceptional September is going to increase the oddity of August 2006, sandwiched between the exceptional July and September. It is going to look a real cuckoo in the nest.

[summer blizzard]

I agree Mr Data, i think this will be one to go in the statistical quirks thread.

Phillip Eden has the current CET as 16.9C, that may rise to around 17.5C by the end of the week before dropping off again.

[Calrissian]

I agree Mr Data, i think this will be one to go in the statistical quirks thread.

Yet another quirk to add for the relentless warming trend. September has been great, how some can even doubt that this month will not be a record, I find astounding.

Calrissian: awaiting hurricanes Gordon and Helene to hit London

[reef]

The Manley CET has slipped another 0.1°C today to 16.8°C. However going by the 0z GFS run, the CET would be 17.1°C by the end of the 27th. I think its pretty safe to say that should the GFS do its usual underestimation of maxima, then this figure could be marginally higher even.

Either way, a record warm September is a serious consideration now (and 16 virtual reef's from Dawlish ).

[su rui ke]

The Manley CET has slipped another 0.1°C today to 16.8°C. However going by the 0z GFS run, the CET would be 17.1°C by the end of the 27th. I think its pretty safe to say that should the GFS do its usual underestimation of maxima, then this figure could be marginally higher even.

Either way, a record warm September is a serious consideration now (and 16 virtual reef's from Dawlish ).

I would think the record would be more likely than not if it's still 17.1 by the end of the 27th. If it turns out the way you suggest, the last three days would have to average below 12.1 for the record not to be broken - not ridiculously cold but even at this stage you would have to say there is a very good chance of the record going.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I would think the record would be more likely than not if it's still 17.1 by the end of the 27th. If it turns out the way you suggest, the last three days would have to average below 12.1 for the record not to be broken - not ridiculously cold but even at this stage you would have to say there is a very good chance of the record going.

I would say it is guaranteed, in the bag, end of story. Should be a warm start to October too

BFTP

Edited September 20, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Dawlish]

I would say it is guaranteed, in the bag, end of story. Should be a warm start to October too

BFTP

The 16.6C Sept CET record in the bag? Not with today's gfs charts to the end of the month. 16C is quite possible - 50/50 today, in my book (literally - such good odds for anyone who feels the Sept. record is on!!) - but I think that 16.6C would require more warmth than is apparent today in those charts. Thursday will boost the CET, ceratinly and the date record of 28.1C may go.

Paul

[Weather-history]

Kevin, Gordon Manley's published series ended at the end of 1973. He may well have kept a watch on the figures after that, but he didn't publish; he was an old man by then anyway.

The MO did not routinely publish a monthly CET until well into the 1980s, although the Synoptic Climatology Branch (as it was then) probably produced a figure in-house. It was not regarded as important - indeed Manley was often vilified inside the MO as being a "geographer" and therefore not a proper scientist.

When the MO finally did get around to publishing a monthly CET, at first they used all sorts of different methods to achieve the figure. Quite how and why they settled on the tri-polar scheme that forms the basis of the present Hadley calculation I have not been able to discover.

HTH, Philip

Hi Philip, thanks for your reply

I actually got a reply from the Met Office

"Dear Mr Bradshaw

Your enquiry about Central England temperature was passed to me.

When I joined the "Synoptic Climatology" branch of the Met Office in

1978, Central England Temperature was being calculated on a routine

daily basis by the late Arthur Jenkinson using an average of 6 stations

in the English midlands. I do not know whether this began as soon as

1974, but by the 1970s data were in digital-computer form and it would

have been easy to backdate. I think Gordon Manley devoted his remaining

years after 1974 to assembling manuscript data for the mid 16th to mid

17th centuries in order to extend the Central England temperature

record back in time.

The Climatic Research Unit at the University of East

Anglia may be able to confirm this.

I hope this helps

Regards

David Parker"

Edited September 20, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Mr Sleet]

An exceptional September is going to increase the oddity of August 2006, sandwiched between the exceptional July and September. It is going to look a real cuckoo in the nest.

It's all about synoptics, and the positioning of the HP. July and September have been characterised by the stubborn block over central/eastern Europe feeding warm air over us. Both months have been unusually warm because of unusual synoptics.

[acbrixton]

Hi Philip, thanks for your reply

I actually got a reply from the Met Office

"Dear Mr Bradshaw

I think Gordon Manley devoted his remaining

years after 1974 to assembling manuscript data for the mid 16th to mid

17th centuries in order to extend the Central England temperature

record back in time.

The Climatic Research Unit at the University of East

Anglia may be able to confirm this.

I hope this helps

Regards

David Parker"

Mr Data: this is rather interesting: I wonder if the UEA can confirm that Prof Manley had made any progress in extending the CET back from 1659 to in effect the start of "The Little Ice Age"?

Regards

ACB

[snowsure]

Can I offer 13.9oC to the list of guesses scientifically calculated CETs?

I am still quietly confident!!!

[shuggee]

Philip Eden's site is currently at CET: (Sep 1-20): 16.8°C (+2.5 degC) and it's certainly only on an upward trend for the next 5 days

[The PIT]

Well todays bumped it up quite a bit. Lovely day here pity I wasn't on the east coast.

[West is Best]

The 16.6C Sept CET record in the bag? Not with today's gfs charts to the end of the month. 16C is quite possible - 50/50 today, in my book (literally - such good odds for anyone who feels the Sept. record is on!!) - but I think that 16.6C would require more warmth than is apparent today in those charts. Thursday will boost the CET, ceratinly and the date record of 28.1C may go.

Paul

Well, the date record yesterday did indeed fall, with 28.8C recorded at Bedford http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/obs/yesterday.html

I will be amazed if September's 16.6C record falls from here. Although Philip currently has the CET on 17C, the final week of the month should see a slight falling away. I'm inclined to agree that something around 16C looks likely. Having said this, there is no serious cooldown showing. Edit - actually, just playing with the output temps and something above 16.6C is still possible I guess!

I haven't had time to check this, but aren't we on course for the warmest ever recorded June-September? And possibly the warmest ever recorded May-September?

Edited September 22, 2006 by West is Best

[stormchaser1]

Well after yesterdays sizzling temps up here in the north my average temp actuallly came down slightly ... My average mean for september is now reading 16.70c ,[ i still make this the warmest september the north east has seen in the last 10 years

nigel

[su rui ke]

Well, the date record yesterday did indeed fall, with 28.8C recorded at Bedford http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/obs/yesterday.html

I will be amazed if September's 16.6C record falls from here. Although Philip currently has the CET on 17C, the final week of the month should see a slight falling away. I'm inclined to agree that something around 16C looks likely. Having said this, there is no serious cooldown showing. Edit - actually, just playing with the output temps and something above 16.6C is still possible I guess!

I haven't had time to check this, but aren't we on course for the warmest ever recorded June-September? And possibly the warmest ever recorded May-September?

I think you're edited comments are nearer the mark, West. A 5-day GFS-based calculation shows it staying more or less steady until at least the 26th. That would mean a daily average of 10C was needed in the last four days to bring it down to 16C.

[Polar Continental]

Hi,

My mean temperature records currently running at 17c, 0.75c warmer than August so far. (+3.3c above the CET average.)

Paul

Edited September 22, 2006 by Paul Carfoot

[Weather-history]

!

I haven't had time to check this, but aren't we on course for the warmest ever recorded June-September? And possibly the warmest ever recorded May-September?

I mentioned this on the previous page

"June-September 1976 had a CET average of 16.68 (16.735 for Philip's data)

As long as the CET is above 15.0C for September, it will be the warmest such period on record

We've also had the warmest May- July period on record by the way

The warmest May-September period will be broken as long as the September CET is 14.9C or over"

[West is Best]

I mentioned this on the previous page

"June-September 1976 had a CET average of 16.68 (16.735 for Philip's data)

As long as the CET is above 15.0C for September, it will be the warmest such period on record

We've also had the warmest May- July period on record by the way

The warmest May-September period will be broken as long as the September CET is 14.9C or over"

Thanks for this Kevin. An amazing period ...

[Weather-history]

The July-September record is under threat

That was July-September 1995 with an average of 17.17, that would need a Hadley CET of 15.7 to achieve it.

If you are a purist and you use Philip's Manley series then there is a very good chance that we could be about to have our first ever year where 4 months have recorded a CET of 16.0 or greater.

[Bottesford]

Wow it's certainly been a warm period! If we hadn't have had that cold Jan-March period we might have been looking at a record year too.

[Summer of 95]

Now September is looking to stand a good chance of being warmer than August, what are the odds on it also being sunnier I wonder? looking at the Metoffice pages 3 out of the last 4 Septembers were sunnier than August 2006, and the other one only missed it by 5 hours. 1999 seems to have managed it as did 1986, however 1956 the only other year when September was warmer it was also very dull with only 97.4 hours. So as far as I can gather September being both warmer and sunnier has never happened- until now?