Hurricane Gordon

[kold weather]

Other way round, Gordon is indeed the small one, while the big one is hurricane Helene, category-3 and even strongere then Gordon was at its peak.

[Thundersquall]

Other way round, Gordon is indeed the small one, while the big one is hurricane Helene, category-3 and even strongere then Gordon was at its peak.

Where's Helene heading to?

[P.K.]

Down another 2hPa to 975hPa, winds still at 80kts.

HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

800 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006

...GORDON MOVING FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...

...HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE AZORES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES. A TROPICAL

STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH COULD BE

UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED BY

SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR

ABOUT 880 MILES...1415 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44

KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... GORDON WILL

BE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105

MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER

PORTIONS OF THE AZORES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...37.9 N...44.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[Roger J Smith]

Gordon now needs a very close watch as it moves rapidly towards a large-scale trough that is shown on the 00z models deepening in 36 hours to contain a 517-dm centre near 20 W. This tells me that Gordon as an intact cat-1 or 2 hurricane could swerve around the base of the trough northwest of Iberia and move as a strong tropical storm towards the British Isles on Thursday. This potential is by no means certain, but based on the rapid evolution of the whole complex of low pressure, things need to be watched very closely until it's certain that Gordon has moved off in some less dangerous (to the UK or Ireland, that is) direction, or fizzled out. I think there is some chance here of explosive development in the extratropical phase, on Thursday if it happens.

Also Helene has the potential to follow along in roughly the same path around Tuesdsay of next week, so lots to watch and analyze now.

Edited September 19, 2006 by Roger J Smith

[BrickFielder]

Gordon

INITIAL 19/0900Z 38.1N 38.7W 90 KT

12HR VT 19/1800Z 38.3N 33.6W 75 KT...APPROACHING AZORES

24HR VT 20/0600Z 38.8N 26.1W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 20/1800Z 40.8N 17.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 21/0600Z 43.6N 8.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

Some storms perhaps in the south west and heavy rain in Ireland expected as the reminants of Gordon send a vorticity pulse up the frontal system.

[Calrissian]

Some storms perhaps in the south west and heavy rain in Ireland expected as the reminants of Gordon send a vorticity pulse up the frontal system.

Sounds menacing, but I have little doubt it'll just be a cloudy day with a somewhat stiff breeze. Sure, the far SW and tip of Ireland 'might' get gust of 50-75mph, but thats barely worthy of note. Meanwhile, the media fantacism is already starting to note the oncoming 'hurricane'.

Calrissian: will lose his roof to the Cat'3 in t-100 hours ?

[crimsone]

Inded - from the Ex-Florence thread, the models were predicting just a few days ago that there would be a very strong and deep low out to the W/NW of the UK which would absorb the re-strengthened ex-Gordon just to the SW of Cornwall. Obbviously, this would at least initially swing the remnants of ex-Gordon up into the UK Mainland. It sounds as though the Models haven't given up on the idea and are suggesting something similar?

It appears that the one thing that could stop ex-helene or the low we have before it from making progress over the UK is the European high - it appears to be holding firm and pushing most stystems up to the North before they reach us.

Interestingly though, even after Extra-tropical transition, Helene doesn't weaken one iota according to the GFS at the moment. In fact, it gets stronger

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT0.../074512W_sm.gif

Edited September 19, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

I kinda think we'll not get a proper handle on where and what from Gordon until tomorrow when we can see where he's at and what he is doing!

Personally I think he will outrun the feature progged to overtake and absorb him and run up the cold front (or infront of it) as a tropical storm (with his structure intact) which would bring a spectacular end to summer. If Helene is to follow suit then she'll possibly be better still.You can only hope (of course nobody wants any harm to persons or property from this event)

[The PIT]

I think they've got Gordons track pretty well in the bag now. Unless theres a huge forecasting cock up like the good old days, then saying that we did get blown around two winters ago in an unforecast storm. Hit 80 MPH in that one overnight.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think they've got Gordons track pretty well in the bag now. Unless theres a huge forecasting cock up like the good old days, then saying that we did get blown around two winters ago in an unforecast storm. Hit 80 MPH in that one overnight.

I think they've outlined the 'flavours' of what may occur pretty well but so far as 'in the bag'........well. Until we start pulling in enough data on a smaller (micro not meso) scale then we're following the lead of models that don't have the capacity to look as close as is needed with such a tight system. Time alone will tell.....

EDIT: I'm still waiting 'till it's on the local Sat./Radar systems to make my 'final ' assessment (probably on Friday....LOL)

Edited September 19, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Terminal Moraine]

I don't want to see injuries or death from any storm either but, by god, I'd sacrifice my roof to see Gordon scythe across the middle of the country.

Yours with muted anticipation.

T.M

[Gray-Wolf]

I keep watching his last 6 hrs movement and measuring it against the two forcast track points (the first one is spot on ,a plot no doubt, but the second is now far too far north ) so Gordon had better start being dragged north or he'll sit for longer over marginal waters before shifting north (or not....look out Spain/Portugal) all of which isn't what the last best geuss was. Look out for updates I'd say.

Anyone know how 'Marginal ' the SST's are at 37.5 degrees North at that point?

EDIT: and why does he appear to be 'flareing up on his eastern/Northern side again? surely it's past the days heat so what's all that about?

Edited September 19, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Calrissian]

I don't want to see injuries or death from any storm either but, by god, I'd sacrifice my roof to see Gordon scythe across the middle of the country.

Yours with muted anticipation.

T.M

I never did much like Birmingham anyway. Interesting image...Birmingham, with a giant 100 mile wide scythe. Yes, we can hope...if only for another day.

---

Gordon, hmm, its all in the name really.

Calrissian: not on the farm.

[Paranoid]

I'd happily lose a few tiles and a few fences (we're getting them replaced anyway) for this to hit us whilst tropical as well.