North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[mettalfabrik]

yeah they sure do

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virga

[Coopsy]

Virga is quite common here, many times you will see it snowing/raining over the mountains, but it doesnt reach the ground in town

[WhiteFox]

Virga is quite common here, many times you will see it snowing/raining over the mountains, but it doesnt reach the ground in town

Quite often radar will show ppn over New York in winter, but due to very low dew-points it never actually reaches the ground. Happened quite a lot last year when fronts were moving onto Cold Canadian airmasses.

I'm going to be paying close attention to the weather of Winnipeg this winter, as I plan to spend a few months out there in a few years time, probably no time soon but its a long term goal and I should be able to feel some pretty severe cold there, even above average temps will feel pretty bitter compared to what we normal have in the UK, record high in Jan is 8C!

Fairly cool day today with maxes of 4-6C generally it seems with rain. 850hpa profiles to the east suggestive of a wintry mix, esp tomorrow as the 850hpa profiles dip and the colder air digs in the states and on higher ground I wouldn't be surprised if there will be some heavy snow for a time.

Beyond that and looks like temps are going to rise again in the Winnipeg region, indeed long term does look warm for the time of year but its just a suspense of what is to come for that region.

I think they have already had some wet snow in the Winnipeg region. I believe I saw it forecast for overnight last night or tonight.

All I can say is make sure you bring plenty of books! Winnipeg is in what you would call the 'Great Wide open'. There really is nothing nearby for hundreds of miles and it's as flat as an ironed pancake; it makes East Anglia look positively mountainous. Of course if you're looking for cold then average highs of -13oC in January should keep you awake during the long, dark winter! The average high doesn't climb above freezing until the 21st March (probably about 5-10 days earlier these days, but that's a different discussion).

[debs]

I've been on this site more or less since it opened and never spotted this forum before.......HI Y'all.

I gave up with British Weather and moved here in July. Looking forward to snow this year at Christmas and beyond. Came over for a visit in March and loved seeing the lakes all frozen with thick ice and the hills and mountains and towns covered in snow.......can't wait. I know people keep telling me I'll get sick of the snow after a few years but I doubt it. No such thing as cold weather just bad clothing or so I've been told. so even if I have to dress up in a snow suit and look like a tellytubbie I'll be out there enjoying the white stuff.

Weather here in NB is cloudy today and its actually nice to see some clouds and feel the change in the weather. I went for a walk along the beach on Friday and got sunburned and although I'm not complaining, it does take some getting used to. The weather is pretty diverse though and all I can say is BRING IT ON......

TTFN

Debs

Edited October 10, 2007 by debs

[WhiteFox]

I've been on this site more or less since it opened and never spotted this forum before.......HI Y'all.

I gave up with British Weather and moved here in July. Looking forward to snow this year at Christmas and beyond. Came over for a visit in March and loved seeing the lakes all frozen with thick ice and the hills and mountains and towns covered in snow.......can't wait. I know people keep telling me I'll get sick of the snow after a few years but I doubt it. No such thing as cold weather just bad clothing or so I've been told. so even if I have to dress up in a snow suit and look like a tellytubbie I'll be out there enjoying the white stuff.

Weather here in NB is cloudy today and its actually nice to see some clouds and feel the change in the weather. I went for a walk along the beach on Friday and got sunburned and although I'm not complaining, it does take some getting used to. The weather is pretty diverse though and all I can say is BRING IT ON......

TTFN

Debs

Welcome to the other side Debs!

You'll be sure to get some interesting weather up there in New Brunswick... I love the anticipation of winter at this time of year. With the drop in temperatures it finally feels like autumn is here; last night was the first time I've seen people wearing coats because it was cool since about May!

[kold weather]

Yeah Whitefox, it was a sort of wintry mess with both rain and snow reported but the temps did drop to about 2C and there was some wet snow breifly looking at the reports last night as the coldest air dug down.

Those average highs really caught my eye, I'm not too bothered about snowfall amounts, even a snowfall of 5-10cms would be up there with some of the deeper falls I've seen in my life, its really just the whole extreme cold i want to feel. Still its probably a few years away yet but its nice to observe the pattern out there over thiw winter.

Edited October 10, 2007 by kold weather

[debs]

Welcome to the other side Debs!

You'll be sure to get some interesting weather up there in New Brunswick... I love the anticipation of winter at this time of year. With the drop in temperatures it finally feels like autumn is here; last night was the first time I've seen people wearing coats because it was cool since about May!

Hey Whitefox

I notice you are from Reading, we just moved from Basingstoke. Last year we had one day of snow, well actually half a day of snow which accumulated to about 3 inches and the whole of Basingstoke practicaly came to a standstill. Schools closed and companies were debating whether to shut early and let workers gohome. A journey of around 10 minutes took me 45 minutes. By lunchtime the snow had gone and that was that for our snow this year.

When did you jump ship to this side of the pond? Why did you jump ship?

TTFN

Debs

[WhiteFox]

Hi, White Fox - thanks for all these updates. As long as New York gets the rain before next Monday, I don't mind. I'll be more than happy with high teens and dry weather. Although these sudden torrential downpours you get do sound exciting (as long as I'm watching it from indoors!

You're looking good for next week!

The possible Nor'Easter didn't phase fully, so some heavy rain pushed through today but has cleared leaving a chilly North Westerly breeze and dry conditions, a pretty active cold front in fact; I believe there was quite a lot of flash-flooding across New York this afternoon.

For next week it looks predominately dry with mostly sunny skies and temperatures around the low-twenties all week. Just about perfect in fact!

Enjoy your trip to New York.

Yeah Whitefox, it was a sort of wintry mess with both rain and snow reported but the temps did drop to about 2C and there was some wet snow breifly looking at the reports last night as the coldest air dug down.

Those average highs really caught my eye, I'm not too bothered about snowfall amounts, even a snowfall of 5-10cms would be up there with some of the deeper falls I've seen in my life, its really just the whole extreme cold i want to feel. Still its probably a few years away yet but its nice to observe the pattern out there over thiw winter.

The thing about snowfall in places like Winnipeg is that it really sticks around. Of course, it is possible to get a thaw if the winds come from the South, but weeks of sub-zero temperatures are more than likely up there. I was in Minneapolis last January which is a good few hundred miles south of Winnipeg and a 2cm snowfall stays around like powder even in full sunlight.

Those sort of temperatures have to be experienced to be believed. I felt -20oC in Minnesota last year and that was cold enough, although I wasn't outside for very long. I also experienced -12oC in New York with a very strong wind from the North West and exposed skin felt like it was going to crack and fall off. In Winnipeg I'd guess you'd need a full set of thermal underclothes, plus balaclava and many layers beside! You'll probably find that people don't spend any time outdoors!

Hey Whitefox

I notice you are from Reading, we just moved from Basingstoke. Last year we had one day of snow, well actually half a day of snow which accumulated to about 3 inches and the whole of Basingstoke practicaly came to a standstill. Schools closed and companies were debating whether to shut early and let workers gohome. A journey of around 10 minutes took me 45 minutes. By lunchtime the snow had gone and that was that for our snow this year.

When did you jump ship to this side of the pond? Why did you jump ship?

TTFN

Debs

I shipped over here last May and spend my time travelling round the US and Canada with work. I really moved over here because of my job, but at the moment it is not permanent; my work permit is good for another 2-4 years so I have to decide whether to move back to the UK, go for a green card, or look at emigrating to Canada (which would probably be more likely).

I do love it over here though; it's such a vast country, especially if you consider the fact that you can travel pretty much any where you want in the US and Canada.

Anyway, last winter we were a good bit below average in snow in New York, about 13-14 inches in total I think, but we did have two mighty ice storms into the bargain. Hopefully this year will be snowier...

[Coopsy]

The fall weather continues to be fantastic here in Southern Alberta, compared to the past 3 years, no snow in sight, day time temps around the 10oC, and just touching freezing or below at night , even hitting 20oC last weekend. Snow levels at about 7000ft so still a good base for the skiing.

On a personal note with regards to the above, the coldest I have felt is minus 38oC with a wind chill of -45oC back in '05 sometime. Not a pleasant experience but one I wouldnt have missed.

[kold weather]

Another warm day for Winnipeg today it seems, temps nw upto 15-17C generally in the region though the mins do look to be fairly cool. In truth actually its not all that much different to what we have here in the UK right now!

models are seemingly suggesting this sort of pattern may continue for a little while yet with no sign in the next 7 days of anything cold enough for snow though the thickness are lower which suggests cooler maxes then recently. Long range GFS ensembles are however suggesting a pattern change with a greater chance of some colder air digging down towards the end of the month. Numerous runs going for something in the region of -10C at 850hpa and thicknesses of 515-525 would suggest maxes around 1-2C at this time of year, though probably deeper in winter with a far bigger supply of cold that would equate to a temp closer to 0- -2C in terms of maxes.

[Coopsy]

Autumn continues to be warm and sunny here in southern alberta. Temps maxed at 18oC today, settled snow in town remains at zero so far this season. A worry for the ski hills as snow melt is rapid on the mountains, but hopefully this will change next week

[WhiteFox]

Long range GFS ensembles are however suggesting a pattern change with a greater chance of some colder air digging down towards the end of the month. Numerous runs going for something in the region of -10C at 850hpa and thicknesses of 515-525 would suggest maxes around 1-2C at this time of year, though probably deeper in winter with a far bigger supply of cold that would equate to a temp closer to 0- -2C in terms of maxes.

Indeed it does. Autumn continues to be considerably above average for Northern US/Southern Canada. The temps show a downward trend, and they are usually pretty good at forecasting so far out for places like Winnipeg:

Trough digging down through the High-Plains and MidWest:

Possibility of some back-edge snow for the UP of Michigan and Northern Wisconsin from this system as well as Lake-Effect snow setting up for Upstate New York. Of course, such a long way off that it will be completely different, but it definitely looks like a

pattern change.

Before that, it looks to stay above average for at least the next week, but even on the Chicago ensembles you can see the downward trend:

Highs hovering around the low-twenties for the next week and then down to the low-teens next week; average highs are 18oC at this time of year.

[Roger J Smith]

KW, here are a few factoids about the weather in southern Manitoba that will whet your appetite, I am sure.

This past summer, the suburbs of Winnipeg experienced the strongest tornado ever recorded on Canadian soil, it was a borderline F4/5 at its peak. Good warnings were out for it and nobody was killed or even seriously hurt. But it totally demolished a row of houses and flipped large trucks over on its outer margins.

The summer of 1936 was hot in the central US and eastern N America, and this heat extended into Winnipeg to give them several days of 108 F highs. One night during this July heat wave, the overnight low was 82 F. Al Gore wasn't even born yet.

Winnipeg records an average of 30 thunderstorms a year, but this average rises to 40 in southern SK and 50 in parts of Alberta. Most of these are in June, July and August.

There is significant lake effect snow in southern Manitoba in October and November before the large lakes there freeze over in December (on average). Not only Lake Winnipeg, but smaller Lake Manitoba can generate powerful squalls in 30-50 mph NW winds that often blow down out of the subarctic at this time of year. The squall bands are narrower than Great Lakes snow streamers and often only a few miles wide, but they tend to come in on both sides of the city from the two lakes and make for blizzard conditions on the main east-west highway through Manitoba.

The lowest temperature recorded in Winnipeg is something like -46 C, at least on the outskirts of the city. It probably doesn't fall much below -35 C in the city due to urban heat island effects, but some rural parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan have recorded -51 C or lower (that's -60 F).

Winnipeg is known across Canada as Winterpeg. The joke is that they have ten months of winter and two months of black flies. Actually, they don't have it quite that good, it's eight months of winter and four months of black flies.

Winnipeg can get on the backside of a strong low and find itself buried in snow pretty fast, 30-50 cm falls are not that unusual and they tend to come on the flanks of winter, like November and April, when the thermal gradient is closer. Sometimes in October, March or April, they can get a prodigious rainfall too when one of these lows tracks right over top of them. I've seen 75 mm rainfalls in the past few years in 24 hour periods, with the temperature at 2-3 C.

Freezing rain often occurs to the south and east of Winnipeg, not so frequently to the west and north. There are also winter storms that drop ice pellets, sleet and the whole devil's brew of precip types, with thunder and the whole lot.

But also, the weather in Winnipeg can be settled and quite pleasant for weeks at a time. When there's a ridge over the Rockies, quite often the track of high pressure is NW to SE across Manitoba, and they get a succession of cold starts and warm finishes with dry cold fronts in between. This is quite typical of October as well as April and May in some years.

The main feature of the weather in Winnipeg is the wind. It is often very windy there, not only is the topography flat, but there is a large-scale channelling from NW to SE that accelerates winds from those directions. Winnipeg is famous for its bitterly cold southerly wind ahead of warm fronts in winter, sometimes it can be -18 C, with a 30 mph wind and a wind chill of -40. There would be a little thin snow or snizzle in the air, and you would wish for a very rapid death after a few minutes out in it.

I can assure you and anyone else on NW that a year or two in Winnipeg will satisfy all your winter cravings and then remove them in short order.

[WhiteFox]

*snip

Good stuff Roger. Informative and entertaining!

Incidentally, the record summer heat you mention is interesting because in that same year, Bismarck, ND, had a record low temperature of -43oC and a record high temperature of 46oC in July. I imagine that Winnipeg also had a fairly cold winter in 1936; do you have the figures anywhere?

[Roger J Smith]

I am sure it would have been the same, WF, temp anomalies in ND and MB are almost always very similar.

The EC site only has data on line back to 1938, sadly, and the published records that I have looked at in the past, are in various libraries rather than in my possession.

The 1930s had higher temperatures in general for mid-summer than we've ever seen since, although 1936 holds most of the really astounding ones, like three days in a row with 105 F in Toronto, the only other days at or over 100 F there were in 1854, 1911, 1916, 1918, 1948, and 1953 -- Al Gore didn't know that I betcha. Canada's highest ever temperature officially recorded was 45 F (113 F) in southern Saskatchewan on 10 July 1937, it was a touch lower in Manitoba in 1936 and also in southern BC on a number of occasions. I have been in 45 C heat myself in Arizona, it's not that hard to take in the shade if it isn't too humid.

The winter of 1936 was fairly cold across the continent but especially in the central portions, however, it didn't last well into March as some others have done, then May started into the brutal heat that was building up. I guess it was partly because of the desertification of the high plains after drought in 1933-34, also very hot summers across the continent. The upper air charts are not available, so we have little to assess whether heights or thicknesses exceeded record values seen more recently. The highest temperature in the 1936 heat wave was something astronomical like 50 C or 122 F in the eastern part of SD. Nowadays, 43 C is considered exceptional in that region.

[kold weather]

Very interesting facts Roger, your quite right it certainly has whet my appetite. This winter will be trying to learn the set-ups and watching them closely to get a feel for it.

Anyway hints of a possible cold snap for central Canada early next week as a NW flow comes down from the S.Arctic regions around a deepening low pressure with a secondary depression to the south of it which spawns a very active frontal system right down into SE USA by 168hrs. Those places having a severe drought right now would be thankful if this is the case though early days.

The GFS ensembles are less keen on bringing down the cold air as far south as the operational 06z run was and keep the -5C isotherm north ofWinnipeg. Cool from the looks of things but the op run does look maybe on the marginal side of being just cool enough to support wintry condtions overnight. Thickness gets down to between 531-535, once again marginal. Precip would be lacking a little as well.

Does look like over the next 15 days the Arctic air will finally be getting a tighter grip on Canada, the 06z op run had sub 540mbs thickness from 204hrs onwards in Winnipeg and uch of central Canada would be the same I'd guess.

[Candice]

I'm hoping for temperatures to drop in Manitoba over the next week as I'm off to Churchill to see the polar bears. Currently in Churchill it's 14oC at 1.30 pm today - I've just bought all my thermals, woolley gloves, ugg boots etc. Mind you, yesterday it only got to 4oC under fog. Looking at the charts it would appear to be turning colder but still above freezing for the next week or so. Would rather see the polar bears in the snow.

[Coopsy]

Its been exceptionally mild in some parts of the prairies just of late due to the southerly winds. I would say within a week temps will be at or below normal.

[WhiteFox]

The GFS ensembles are less keen on bringing down the cold air as far south as the operational 06z run was and keep the -5C isotherm north ofWinnipeg. Cool from the looks of things but the op run does look maybe on the marginal side of being just cool enough to support wintry condtions overnight. Thickness gets down to between 531-535, once again marginal. Precip would be lacking a little as well.

Does look like over the next 15 days the Arctic air will finally be getting a tighter grip on Canada, the 06z op run had sub 540mbs thickness from 204hrs onwards in Winnipeg and uch of central Canada would be the same I'd guess.

The rule of thumb over here tends to be a thickness of 540 for snow. If the dewpoints, upper air and surface temperatures are right then sub-540 thickness will generally deliver. 538 with upper temps at -5 and surface of -3 delivered snow in March in New York before the upper atmosphere warmed and the snow turned to freezing rain.

Remember, the rules are somewhat different over here!

Anyway, this chart for next Friday (I'm using it for a demonstration - this will almost certainly not verify!) illustrates something to watch out for in Winnipeg:

Some PPN there, between 0.25 to 0.5 of an inch with a ratio of 1:10 to :12 could give up to 4 or 5 inches of snow. Note the 540 thickness line in blue representing the approximate rain/snow line.

Upper air temps would probably support snow:

Of course, it's the sort of system which would cause headaches with forecasting; it could easily shift a couple of hundred miles and give either rain or nothing. Not a problem you would get in winter obviously!

[kold weather]

Yeah in winter I've heard about the 540 rule. The only reason I think 535 would be marginalis because the time of year. The cold simply hasn't probably built up quite well enough yet to give snow at even thickness values. Its a bit like when we get an frontal battle here in the UK, on Feb 7-9th we had snow depsite thickness getting upto 537-539 because the air was coming off a cold Europe which had little moderation.

Still yeah 540 does appear to be sort of the magic line. Models stil lsuggesting a possibly fairly borderline set-up with thickness down to 535mbs and 850hpa temps down to -4C, maybe just cold enough for some wet snow, esp as the cold front pulls away and the colder air digs down from the north-west as a low pressure system moves eastward. Also still looks very wet for Se states which generally do need the rain right now.

By the way where do you get those charts from?

Edited October 18, 2007 by kold weather

[WhiteFox]

By the way where do you get those charts from?

The only place I've found the GFS charts past 180 hours:

http://models.easternuswx.com/gfsloop.php?...1&rtype=op#

[Paul Sherman]

How would you try to guess the CET For this Location!! Answers on a Very Big Postcard

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0104

[pottyprof]

Looks like a Woolies pick n mix..

[kold weather]

The GFS this morning still has a fairly cool set-up coming early next week which will drop temps to a little below average for the time of year tohugh not really any great shakes. Problem as per normal will probably moisture , maybe some wintry flurries coming form the lakes but the atmosphere does look fairly stable as of now.

Then the GFS goes for quite a large warm-up on its 0z run, I've not seen it go quite to that extreme over the last few days but this run warms the 850hpa upto 15C and thicknesses upto 565!!!

Would probably give siome very impressive maxes for the time of year!

After that and as you'd expect the first much colder stuff of the year finally comes down as the LP responsible for the warm-up swings away tothe east and with a HP to the east allow the floodgates to open from the north. In this run we get 850hpa profiles down to -8C and thickness down to 525 though once again precip would be hard to come by except maybe close to the lakes with some light LES possible close to the lakes. Certainly would be cooler then anything seen this Autumn if that occured.

[WhiteFox]

After that and as you'd expect the first much colder stuff of the year finally comes down as the LP responsible for the warm-up swings away tothe east and with a HP to the east allow the floodgates to open from the north.

Something which occurs quite often in Chicago. The extreme example for me last year was ahead of a potent system we had temperatures of 21oC on the Wednesday; not bad for the end of November! Then the cold front came through and knocked us down to just above freezing on the Thursday. ahead of the next storm we rose to about 7oC, and then had six inches of snow on the Friday! Temperatures then stayed below freezing for a week as two clipper systems from Canada reinforced the cold air.