North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[If Wishes made Weather]

I'm putting this question in here - but mods, feel free to move if its better placed elsewhere.

In New England, most winter there are several snowstorms that would, by UK standards, be considered extreme. Typically there are -20c or colder 850 temps, very low heights (if that isn't tortological), and at the surface temps of 10 F or below, 20 to 40 knot winds and anything up to (think Jan 23 2005) several feet of snow falling as the system moves through.

Are there any Northern Hemisphere larger scale patterns that could, albeit very occasionally, lead to such weather in the UK, particularly lowland UK where precipitation levels are not being sigificantly affected by topography?

T

[Staffordshire]

I would like to add something to this also, I know it's rather specfic but is there anywhere in new England which recieves regular summer thunderstorms and is also prone to winter snowstorms?

I'm putting this question in here - but mods, feel free to move if its better placed elsewhere.

In New England, most winter there are several snowstorms that would, by UK standards, be considered extreme. Typically there are -20c or colder 850 temps, very low heights (if that isn't tortological), and at the surface temps of 10 F or below, 20 to 40 knot winds and anything up to (think Jan 23 2005) several feet of snow falling as the system moves through.

Are there any Northern Hemisphere larger scale patterns that could, albeit very occasionally, lead to such weather in the UK, particularly lowland UK where precipitation levels are not being sigificantly affected by topography?

T

[cheeky_monkey]

I would like to add something to this also, I know it's rather specfic but is there anywhere in new England which recieves regular summer thunderstorms and is also prone to winter snowstorms?

pretty much most of new england away from the coast would experience regular summer storms and winter storms too

[knocker]

The midday plots for the US and Canada. I notice the temp is -4C at Cecil Airport, Florida.

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm putting this question in here - but mods, feel free to move if its better placed elsewhere.

In New England, most winter there are several snowstorms that would, by UK standards, be considered extreme. Typically there are -20c or colder 850 temps, very low heights (if that isn't tortological), and at the surface temps of 10 F or below, 20 to 40 knot winds and anything up to (think Jan 23 2005) several feet of snow falling as the system moves through.

Are there any Northern Hemisphere larger scale patterns that could, albeit very occasionally, lead to such weather in the UK, particularly lowland UK where precipitation levels are not being sigificantly affected by topography?

T

It's theoretically possible, although surface temp's of 10f is pushing the boundaries.

Something similar occurred in January 1740 when low pressure moving up the English Channel met a bitterly cold air mass sitting over Europe and the British Isles resulting in an easterly gale and peratures around -7 to -9c in southern England.

The major difference between here and New England is that they have a huge, cold, continental landmass to the west from which to draw bitterly cold air, both in advance of, and in the wake of passing depressions and a very large supply of warm, moist air to the east to produce the snow. On this side of the Atlantic the continental land mass to the east is not guaranteed to be cold and is rarely, if ever, as uniformly cold as the interior of the northern U.S.A and Canada. The situation over there is rather as if we had an almost permanent Siberian block extending westward into Europe to provide the cold and a supply of depressions approaching on the right track bumping into it to provide the snow.

[knocker]

Plus I'm assuming the Labrador Current must have some effect on the coastal regions of NE.

[knocker]

Talking about NE some quite cold temps forecast for there at 0600z tomorrow.

[cheeky_monkey]

Just come in from clearing my drive of snow...its a balmy -21c and more like -32c with the windchill...still was hot work and ended up in just a jumper and gloves by time had finished

[Staffordshire]

pretty much most of new england away from the coast would experience regular summer storms and winter storms too

The coast has more thunder storms?

[cheeky_monkey]

The coast has more thunder storms?

no less

[Roger J Smith]

It would be hard to beat the Ontario snow belt region for its combination of winter snow and cold plus frequent severe thunderstorms. The best areas for that combination would be north of London, Ontario and also around Barrie north of Toronto.

They also get spring and autumn windstorm events and a wide variety of weather all year round, including remnant tropical storms that can bring 100-200 mm rainfalls on occasion. This would also apply to parts of upstate New York and Ohio.

It's not just lake-effect snow, some of the synoptic scale snowstorms in the Great Lakes are every bit as intense as a New England blizzard. I recorded 45 cms of snow in 24 hours from the storm on 10-11 Dec 1992 that was entirely synoptic (at a location northeast of Toronto) and over three days in April 1975 had a storm total of four feet, the first half of which was synoptic and the second half lake-effect (that was in a different location north of Toronto).

As to New England, I would say Hartford CT to Worcester MA for the best combination, that region has seen EF4 tornados, hurricane to tropical storm inland events, and had around 100 inches of snow last winter (so far nothing much this winter except for that October snowfall).

Some of the rapid changes in weather in these regions would be on a scale unknown in western Europe. I've seen the temperature fall from 15 C to -15 C inside of six hours, but also warm advection on a similar scale, and once even saw the mercury moving in a wall thermometer as the temperature rose from 5 C to 20 C in half an hour (this was an inversion breakdown warm frontal passage). I was recording in Fahr on that date (at a location west of Toronto that has a minor downsloping effect) and my daily high and low were 82/32 ... that was 17 April 1964. In the Great Lakes superstorm of 26 Jan 1978 the temperature at Toronto dropped from +4 to -10 in about two hours and the pressure dropped to 954 mbs at the south end of Lake Huron.

There can be long intervals of rather bland weather too, it's not like every week produces a major weather event, but in the course of a year you can expect half a dozen or more significant weather events, I think it's fair to say that North America has the ideal geography for severe weather, rather ironic that I moved here to the rather bland climate of the west coast. I would say (subjectively) that we get even less interesting weather here than in most parts of western Europe, just the very occasional windstorm but our "severe thunderstorms" are rather tame affairs, a few lightning strikes and pea sized hail would be as severe as we ever seem to get locally. Inland of course it's a much different story.

[knocker]

Wind chill advisory out for Maine today. Current 0600z US and Canada plots.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

532 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

MEZ001>005-010-161500-

/O.CON.KCAR.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120116T1500Z/

NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-

NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...

FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...VAN BUREN...

MARS HILL...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT...BAXTER ST PARK...

CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...CHURCHILL DAM...MOUNT KATAHDIN...MILLINOCKET...

EAST MILLINOCKET...PATTEN...MEDWAY...GREENVILLE...MONSON...

BLANCHARD

532 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS

MORNING...

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 32 BELOW.

* WINDS...WEST AROUND 5 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...3 BELOW TO 16 BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS

WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN

FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...WEAR A WARM COAT AND GLOVES AND

COVER YOUR HEAD.

&&

[knocker]

Some cold weather sneaking down in central areas on Thursday.

[Coopsy]

minus 26oC this morning and minus 36oC with the windchill. Not that bad getting in the car in the garage (I have moved and its the first time I havent had a heated garage)

Due to get colder with temps down to minus 32/33oC by Thursday. We were doing so well lol

[cheeky_monkey]

minus 26oC this morning and minus 36oC with the windchill. Not that bad getting in the car in the garage (I have moved and its the first time I havent had a heated garage)

Due to get colder with temps down to minus 32/33oC by Thursday. We were doing so well lol

same temperature here this morning -26c and forecasting a low of -39c tuesday into wednesday...so of course my heating has decided today of all days to stop working!!

Edited January 16, 2012 by cheeky_monkey

[Coopsy]

same temperature here this morning -26c and forecasting a low of -39c tuesday into wednesday...so of course my heating has decided today of all days to stop working!!

Oh dear what a time to pack up. Murphy's law. My sewage decided to back up on New Years day - its the curse of 2012 lol

[Roger J Smith]

Coldest reading at present is -46 C in Mayo, Yukon. It's -38 at High Level in northwest Alberta and -41 C at Uranium City in far northern SK. Currently -3 here with light snow and watery sunshine, expecting 5-10 cms later.

Meanwhile, Nome in western Alaska has been running 30 F deg below normal so far this month, Fairbanks in central Alaska about 20 F deg below, and parts of the south coast of Alaska (Valdez, Cordova) have been buried in 15-20 feet of snow, with near normal temperatures.

[Coopsy]

Coldest reading at present is -46 C in Mayo, Yukon. It's -38 at High Level in northwest Alberta and -41 C at Uranium City in far northern SK. Currently -3 here with light snow and watery sunshine, expecting 5-10 cms later.

Meanwhile, Nome in western Alaska has been running 30 F deg below normal so far this month, Fairbanks in central Alaska about 20 F deg below, and parts of the south coast of Alaska (Valdez, Cordova) have been buried in 15-20 feet of snow, with near normal temperatures.

I see the ships finally got through to Nome to deilver their fuel

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Coldest reading at present is -46 C in Mayo, Yukon. It's -38 at High Level in northwest Alberta and -41 C at Uranium City in far northern SK. Currently -3 here with light snow and watery sunshine, expecting 5-10 cms later.

Meanwhile, Nome in western Alaska has been running 30 F deg below normal so far this month, Fairbanks in central Alaska about 20 F deg below, and parts of the south coast of Alaska (Valdez, Cordova) have been buried in 15-20 feet of snow, with near normal temperatures.

And its staying there Roger....we ain't getting it

BFTP

[Coopsy]

Its not often I'm in awe of the Canadian winter but tonight the air temp is -30oC, the wind is howling and the temp with windchill must be in the minus 40oC's, the snow is coming down side ways whilst the laying snow is being blown around all over the place, swirling around the house encasing us. Its a truly awesome sight to see the Canadian winter in full force and all It's glory..

[leicesternosnowzone]

Just had a quick look at the data for Canmore on the environment canada website and it was giving a windchill temperature of -39C, good luck with the snow clearing tomorrow!!

Down here in the deep south of Canada (Hamilton) we have rain and a max temp of 8C tomorrow, its been very mild and very little snow so far this winter in southern ontario. Ski areas of southern ontario have been snow making over the weekend (max temps were below -10C) but still have very little snow base and the Canadians are wondering whether winter will ever arrive! Looks like another cool down later in the week and possibly a couple of inches of snow but nothing on the scale of out west!

[Roger J Smith]

CM in Edmonton may have set a new NW record (for active posters) with a 484 dm thickness on the 00z charts. The minimum value shown on the chart is 471 dm just east of Great Slave Lake at about 61N 107W. Temperatures actually warm up considerably just to the north of that thickness min, in a NNW flow, it is only about -18 C in the Mackenzie valley. Pressures over northern interior Alaska have risen to near 1067 mbs, but on the "north slope" there's a westerly hurricane force wind blowing the snow around.

Currently getting some snow here but it's heavier off to my southeast where a convergence zone has set up. Temperature is a relatively moderate -2 C. The coldest air has just stalled a few miles north of here and is waiting for this weak low to ripple past before spreading out into Puget Sound and across this region. Then it may drop to -5 to -10 C.

A stronger snowstorm is expected on Wednesday, likely to be very heavy in parts of western Washington state closer to the front at that point.

[knocker]

A stronger snowstorm is expected on Wednesday, likely to be very heavy in parts of western Washington state closer to the front at that point.

Yes I see they have a storm warning out for your area Roger.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR

836 PM PST MON JAN 16 2012

...A STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO WASHINGTON AND

OREGON THIS WEEK. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES

OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD

INTO THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ORZ044-507-WAZ028-029-171300-

/O.UPG.KPDT.WS.A.0001.120118T0000Z-120119T0300Z/

/O.EXB.KPDT.WS.W.0001.120118T0300Z-120119T0300Z/

LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-

FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-

LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-

FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOARDMAN...HERMISTON...IONE...

PENDLETON...PILOT ROCK...CONNELL...PROSSER...TRI-CITIES...

DAYTON...WAITSBURG...WALLA WALLA

836 PM PST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM PST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PENDLETON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY

TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE

FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA

BASIN.

* ELEVATION: ALL ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW

SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: TRI-CITIES...PROSSER...DAYTON...WALLA

WALLA...PENDLETON...PILOT ROCK

* WINDS: 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL BLOWING AND

DRIFTING OF SNOW.

* IMPACTS: SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE FOOTHILLS

OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. ROADS MAY BECOME VERY ICY

WEDNESDAY EVENING IF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE HEAVY

ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. FOR

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON.

&&

[Coast]

http://youtu.be/mBSXvfGJrn8

Weather models suggesting changes to Wednesday's snow storm

SEATTLE -- Winter is set to continue its onslaught on Western Washington with more snow in the forecast Tuesday leading up to a major snow event on Wednesday. However, latest forecast model guidance shows some changes to Wednesday's forecast that could keep the snow around longer. But in the short term, we are still dealing with some occasional snow showers as a weak weather disturbance passes by the area. Snow showers will be most frequent and heaviest in the southwest interior, along the coast and from Skagit County north to the Canadian border where Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect until 6 a.m. Tuesday for potentially 2-5 inches of snow in spots in those areas.

Outside those areas a general Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for random hit-and-miss accumulations of up to 1-3" both Monday night and Tuesday. That includes the greater Seattle area, which along with Everett has been protected by snow showers from shadowing effects of the Olympic Mountains. But some showers could develop as the low progresses further away. The snow in the forecast and on the ground has already prompted some schools to post delays and cancellations for Tuesday. Snow showers will linger in the front's wake Tuesday afternoon and we'll be in another lull until Tuesday night when a much larger storm heads in. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of Western Washington for this Tuesday night/Wednesday storm.

Washington will be right in the battleground between a very warm air mass being pushed north from the tropics and a very cold, arctic air mass dropping south from Alaska. This will aid in storm development, but also means that a slight change in track is all the difference between whether you're on the warm side or cold side - and it's possible it could split the state in half north-south. The general theme is for heavy snow to begin late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as the storm approaches, but latest forecast models generated Monday night are starting to paint a different evolution of the storm where the change over to rain is delayed or perhaps doesn't come at all.

Models indicate the storm will take a further south track, which would prevent warm, southerly winds from reaching the Seattle area and points north, and in fact would help draw in colder air from Canada. On the other hand, with the more southerly track, much less moisture would reach the far northern interior and spots like Bellingham could be left cold and relatively dry (but windy) For the greater Seattle area, this is still a very snowy scenario with anywhere from 6-10" possible with isolated higher amounts, especially south of Seattle where areas could approach a foot or more. But if the new models are correct, the snow may continue to fall and stick around on the ground through Wednesday night and even into early Thursday morning with little or no rain to wash it away.

There are even some models hinting at a second shot of snow on Thursday as Seattle and points north remain in the cold air -- although much less moisture this time around and not quite as much snow. Suffice to say, winter weather could be around for a while.

Other concerns

Depending on the storm's track, we could also be in for a period of strong, gusty winds through the day Wednesday as the storm progresses. If the storm stays south, as models are trending, Whatcom and San Juan Counties could be in for a prolonged period of strong northeast winds out of the Fraser River Valley. If the storm goes north, much of the region could be in for a gusty Wednesday evening or night And if we get the change from snow to rain, the problems likely won't end. We'll then have to deal with slushy messes and urban flooding as snow clogs storm drains. Some models indicate over an inch of rain could fall with this storm.

Forecast by region:

* Seattle, Tacoma, Bremerton: Period of snow possible late Monday into Tuesday morning, ranging from 1-3 inches with highest amounts on the hilltops away from water. Lull afternoon into evening Tuesday, then big snow arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday and Wednesday night. 6-10 inches possible there until changeover to rain, if it occurs. If storm does push north and warm air arrives, expect heavy rain and gusty winds.

(Note for Kitsap County: You've been in the relative lull due to Olympic snow shadowing, but Hood Canal area likely to get among the worst of Wednesday's storm with 10-14 inches likely, perhaps more.)

* Cascade Foothills & Island & Snohomish County Convergence Zone area (Everett and vicinity): Potential for band of snow in the convergence zone Monday night that could bring 2-4. There is still some uncertainty to this front, so not a slam dunk. Heavy snow begins anew Tuesday night through Wednesday. Snow totals 6-10" or more.

* Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan Counties: Snow showers, heavy at times, for MOnday night into Tuesday with 2-5" of new snow possible. Gusty northeast winds to 20-35 mph developing by late Monday night as well. Relative lull in snow Tuesday with minor accumulations, then snow returns early Wednesday morning with winds gusting again to 30-40 mph. Latest models back off on amount of moisture that reaches here Wednesday, but what does fall would stay as into Thursday morning and may or may not change to rain. Snow totals in Wednesday storm are now highly variable depending on storm track.

* Strait of Juan de Fuca area: A relative lull Monday night with just a few scattered snow showers. More snow expected Tuesday and Tuesday to the tune of 1-3" with winds still gusting to 20-25 mph. Heavy snow begins toward dawn Wednesday. Snow likely to remain until around midnight Thursday morning before changing over, if it does. Snow totals could be 6-10 inches.

* Coast: Snow showers Monday night with another 2-5 inches possible (mainly away from beaches). Relative lull Tuesday then snow develops Tuesday night into Wednesday. Changeover to rain will happen from south to north along the coast as Wednesday afternoon progresses. Snow totals range from 6-14 inches.

* Southwest Interior: Snow at times with 2-4" possible by Tuesday morning. Then snow will develop late Tuesday night with the big storm, although this area will be among the first to change over to rain, likely around midday Wednesday. Still, snow totals could reach 6-14 inches.

Video here:

http://www.komonews....-137451358.html

[knocker]

An extensive area of snow in Michigan at the moment. The latest Gaylord radar.