Met Office Winter forecast - Updated Feb 6th

[dudechocky]

Dammit!!

I just knew they'd back away from a below average winter. Another mild one on the way then I suppose...

They may change back to the cold/mild,dry/wet/in out and shake it all about forecast from last month,in December.

[Anti-Mild]

Dammit!!

I just knew they'd back away from a below average winter. Another mild one on the way then I suppose...

Just because they forecast a mild winter doesn't mean it will be a mild winter.

As far as I know the MetO don't have a weather machine !

Bit of a disappointment though but they still stick with the 'colder towards the end' forecast they made back in September.

[VillagePlank]

Looks to me as if factors that would induce some form of certainty are missing or are correlating late this year, perhaps anomalous to a rather warm extended summer. Clearly the MetO are expecting the SST/Atmosphere latency rates to be slow this year which is why they are pushing the colder weather back to the end of Winter.

It could well be that a warm(ish) UK being bombarded from a cold, unstable air source (Am ) may indeed be on the cards, and it is, if you look through rose-tinted binoculars, alluded to in their forecast. Look for low atlantic blocks, then . . . .

[Gray-Wolf]

I think all we are seeing is a re-hash of the predicted ENSO event but I'm still not sure that they have it quite right. The waters around Indonesia have cooled quite in line with the event and the 'bulge' of warm waters sits astride the international date line. The small anomaly already at the South America's is not the main event (IMO) but is more likely associated with the bulge that is tracking across the Pacific. As such the cold end to winter is not in any way assured.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

I'd personally be surprised to see yet another cold end to February and start of March as per alot of LRF's are forecasting - I've been recording weather since 1983 and would be surprised to see the same trend for the third year running. The METO's LRF lean back toward the milder scenario is probably the correct call.

Edited November 1, 2006 by Timmy H

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Wouldn't some argue that because you've had two cold end of seasons in a row you're more likely to see a third? Don't believe it myself.

[MAF]

well they seem to be forecasting a change towards mild from the initial forecast. but mild in the sense of slightly above average. now seeing as last winter was bordering on the same sort of temps as average then, to me, mild will still produce a better wintery setup then we have had previous to 2005/6. i remember posting last year about having seen a frost for the first ime in years. so to get a few frosts and perhaps wintery ppn here in the SE would still make the season good.

[The Eagle]

Its worth remembering that an 'average' winter would be far different to the mild Winters of the late 90s and in fact the MO do say this on there website. We should, in the 30 year average Winter, get some good, potent cold spells at times. Having said that though the confidence does not seem to be as apparent with this forecast as it was this time last year so I guess we just wait and see

[Thundery wintry showers]

My personal hunch is that the colder spell is likely to occur earlier in the season, probably mid-February, with a warm-up into early March, but that's only a hunch.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think from my point of view, is whether the METO are correct with the Novmeber update or not, to have such free readily available data is only a good thing.

A long range forecast is just that. A prediction on current model situations. At the moment, the METO are forecasting up to a period of 4 months out (and perhaps beyond if going into March).

All the factors that are looked into to produce such forecasts do change. And with such a long span of time, these factors are likely to change (hence already this being the third update for their winter forecast).

Next month, it may be the same, it may be a milder outlook, it may be a colder.

But at the end of the day, it is a free service, using up to date models, forecast tools, and the most knowledgable people in the industry.

Last year, the forecast was correct, but for some reason, the predictions for one of the factors, ended up being different.

For me, that doesnt shout out to me inaccuracy, but difficulty. All the more reason not to dismiss it, but to take it into account.

[Snowly does it]

An average winter to even slightly above by 1971-2000 average would still be something. They are not forecasting sandcastles and sunburn, but I ge the impression they are relying erhaps on their NAO forecasts and statitstical analysis here in the absence of definitive data form all sources. Its a credit to them actually to have turned around a little, there is obviously quite a bit of uncertainty this year from the caveat at the bottom and their job is therefore not an easy one.

Something for everyone in an average winter maybe?

[kold weather]

I don't see much wrong with this forecast, looks like a pretty average winter, a little something for everyone as snowmaiden puts it.

[The PIT]

I can see a increase of confidence in this one. I suppose the sun will seize on the warmer than average and have everyone in shorts and on the Beach all summer.

Edited November 1, 2006 by The PIT

[acbrixton]

I think from my point of view, is whether the METO are correct with the Novmeber update or not, to have such free readily available data is only a good thing.

A long range forecast is just that. A prediction on current model situations. At the moment, the METO are forecasting up to a period of 4 months out (and perhaps beyond if going into March).

All the factors that are looked into to produce such forecasts do change. And with such a long span of time, these factors are likely to change (hence already this being the third update for their winter forecast).

Next month, it may be the same, it may be a milder outlook, it may be a colder.

But at the end of the day, it is a free service, using up to date models, forecast tools, and the most knowledgable people in the industry.

Last year, the forecast was correct, but for some reason, the predictions for one of the factors, ended up being different.

For me, that doesnt shout out to me inaccuracy, but difficulty. All the more reason not to dismiss it, but to take it into account.

Chris that is one of the fairest and most sensible posts I have seen on this topic: others might care to read and re-read!

Regards

ACB

[karyo]

The most discouraging part of their winter forecast is that they do not consider a southerly tracking jet as possible (they expect high pressure in southern Europe and low in the North).

The possibility for colder weather in late winter although mentioned, is too far out to seriously consider and can be easily canceled in their next update. Having said that, they ould get it wrong and end up with a colder than average winter.

Karyo

[mcweather]

It's what you call a cold reading. Doesn't really say anything really.

You can hear them down pub right now. '' Hello mate, I see the met office have changed their winter forecast yet again,

I dont think they've got a clue really!''.

To be fair the Met office would argue I,m sure, that they are just being just being open and honest about the

the process of long range forecasting and how difficult it is. The problem however from a public perception point of view

is that each time the forecast changes througout the autumn it may seem to negate the validity of the previous release. After all they are not weather anoraks like us.

Would it not perhaps be better for its reputation if the Met office were simply to offer these early prognostications to it's

private clients who being from weather dependent industries will have a greater understanding of the nuances that

are involved rather than releasing two or three changing forecasts to the public. Who when all is said and done, would probably be far far happier with one definitive forecast for the winter being given out the first week in December.

This would give the Met office the chance to take all of the developing factors into account, It would still be a long range forecast because it would look right through to the end of february but having taking as many of the developing factors into account as possible it would be more likely to be as accurate as any longe range forecast can be.

Just a thought!

[Snowly does it]

I think thats a fair point McWeather, but I guss if they advise to private clients, word will get out and if, for example, they are going for a cold winter at an early stage, the press will get wind of it, blow it out of all proportion and the MetO will be forced to comment anyway.

This way, their cards are on the table, and kudos to them for that.

Edited November 1, 2006 by snowmaiden

[mcweather]

I think thats a fair point McWeather, but I guss if they advise to private clients, word will get out and if, for example, they are going for a cold winter at an early stage, the press will get wind of it, blow it out of all proportion and the MetO will be forced to comment anyway.

This way, their cards are on the table, and kudos to them for that.

To be honest Snowmaiden I agree with you about their honesty and kudos, I,m just concerned that their reputation gets a battering, the general public holds weather forecasters in only very slightly higher regard than estate agents and politicians.

[Snowly does it]

To be honest Snowmaiden I agree with you about their honesty and kudos, I,m just concerned that their reputation gets a battering, the general public holds weather forecasters in only very slightly higher regard than estate agents and politicians.

Yeah, I know. And what makes it worse is its usually the clueless that batter them.

Still, better they lay their cards out than be seen as holding back I guess, especially if they were going for cold. They might then get blamed for excess cold related deaths and such.

[blitzen]

I personally would like to get November out of the way first and then hopefully things will be a little clearer and more predictable. The MetO can only work using the available data which, in my opinion, seemed to be a fair enough forecast. We all know how quickly things can change from day to day/week to week let alone a full season's forecast. I don't think that we can look for wall to wall freezing conditions given recent winters, but I hope that at some point over the coming winter we will all have a reminder of what it can be like!

Blitzen.

[chilly milly]

There still seems plenty of room for manouvre in that forecast, I wouldn't be surprised if they returned to a cold end to the month as they still seem to be hinting at that possibility.

[Mark Bayley]

The metoffice have now moved from below average to above temperature <_< in there winter forecast however they still say it could turn much colder around the end of winter (February) They still say we will have above average precipitation. I have copied there forcast and put it on this post.

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Following the finely balanced situation of last month, probabilities now slightly favour temperatures warmer than 1971-2000 averages over much of northern and central Europe.

For the UK, warmer-than-average or near-average temperatures are the more likely outcomes for the winter period as a whole. However, later in the season, there remains a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

Signals have changed since last month, with wetter-than-average conditions now favoured over parts of northern Europe and drier than average favoured in some southern and eastern regions.

For the UK as a whole, a winter with average or above-average precipitation is the more likely outcome.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

[DORSETSNOW]

Having a wetter than average winter can in some cases give us a snowy winter as in the past.

[Mark Bayley]

Having a wetter than average winter can in some cases give us a snowy winter as in the past.

lets hope so

[mcweather]

Having a wetter than average winter can in some cases give us a snowy winter as in the past.

Hi There Dorset snow you are quite right there, a quick look at the Met office uk Rainfall series show that the winter of 47 and the winter of 79 were both wetter than either the 61-90 and 71-2000 averages.