Met Office Winter forecast - Updated Feb 6th

[Dawlish]

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/weather/seaso...06_7/index.html

Should provoke an outbreak of cold-hoping!

Paul

Edited September 21, 2006 by Dawlish

[ScandiHigh]

Very good news for most of us!

---

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

Edited September 21, 2006 by ScandiHigh

[John Cox]

Thanks Paul,

Looking excellent for cold lovers

[memories of 63]

Very good news for most of us!

---

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

How much more fence sitting could there be!!!!!

Even chance of wetter or drier and colder or warmer. Is this a forecast?

[Anti-Mild]

Seems like the MetO have moved from their forecast of a mild winter towards a more average type, something I didn't expect them to do! They even hint that the signals are there that may lean towards a colder winter!

AM

[ScandiHigh]

I think it is interesting that they have changed from mild to normal, and that they single out the late winter season with a signal for lower temperatures and increase in cold snaps!

The European precipiation map suggests that depressions may have a southerly track this winter, that is a good sign.

[Theresnoway]

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

End...

Think the bits in bold sum the forecast up, somewhat edging their bets at this time...

Dave

[johnholmes]

PLEASE when referring to this or anyone elses' LRF for winter PLEASE quote their EXACT words not some version of your own.

This is NOT a comment on the 2 already posted but a plea for those that follow.

John

[Anti-Mild]

I think it is interesting that they have changed from mild to normal, and that they single out the late winter season with a signal for lower temperatures and increase in cold snaps!

The European precipiation map suggests that depressions may have a southerly track this winter, that is a good sign.

I liked this bit at the end though:

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may continue as emerging signals become established

[ScandiHigh]

This is also interesting:

Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter. However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late-winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."

[Rollo]

Hmmm-well that clarifies what the coming winter will be doesn't it!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I liked this bit at the end though:

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may continue as emerging signals become established

I like that too AM. Scandi I agree it is hinting at southerly tracking jet and maybe they have been reading our views on this forum I must admit I was surprised at their early indication...it wasn't as I read the signs [not that means much ] but it certainly went against some of the early views of our revered friends on here. This hints at the Russian HP/Scandi wanting to show its hand...it will in early Jan

BFTP

[ribster]

Well, that sounds very promising, makes much better reading than I was expecting!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

PLEASE when referring to this or anyone elses' LRF for winter PLEASE quote their EXACT words not some version of your own.

This is NOT a comment on the 2 already posted but a plea for those that follow.

John

Quietly confident....

BFTP

[Joneseye]

In other words they don't know have a clue - I guess they can't exactly go on record and say that though can they?

[johnholmes]

admin/mods

we already have 2 on this topic, can you pse merge the other one into this. To be fair it was the first out on the site?

tks

John

Edited September 21, 2006 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

It's what you call a cold reading. Doesn't really say anything really.

[crimsone]

I like that ofrecast. From both the page there and the graphs for the UK on the link in the page, it's almost like the met office is saying "Your guess is as good as ours really, but at least we've come to this conclusion scientifically."

Absolutely fantastic. lol

Edited September 21, 2006 by crimsone

[smith25]

well its looks like they have covered all eventualitys...warm/colder than average and wet/dryer than average.......

[summer blizzard]

Yes, this is very good news, and fits in with a lot of thoughts about a milder start and a colder end.

[The PIT]

So it could be warmer than average or could be colder than average.

Well they ain't going to be wrong.

[Big Bear]

This is a big surprise to me. I was expecting them to stick with their beloved milder/ zonal/ westerly theme.

Basically its still too early to tell (even by LRF standards) but I get the feeling the Daily Express yesterday was tipped off by someone giving false information with their front page reading 'Winter to be our new Summer'... the usual sensationalist rubbish that puts stupid ideas into the minds of the public.

I notice that southern europe currently favours wet & wild conditions - this would suggest a southerly jet with northerly blocking perhaps, negative NAO style winter.. but with average precipitation values for UK could add the spice we missed in recent years.

[drgl]

So it could be warmer than average or could be colder than average.

Well they ain't going to be wrong.

It could be wetter or drier too-looks like they will be right

[summer blizzard]

I hope that it is not drier, winter 2006 was the 6th driest in the past 100 years.

[Big Bear]

This is a big surprise to me. I was expecting them to stick with their beloved milder/ zonal/ westerly theme.

Basically its still too early to tell (even by LRF standards) but I get the feeling the Daily Express yesterday was tipped off by someone giving false information with their front page reading 'Winter to be our new Summer'... the usual sensationalist rubbish that puts stupid ideas into the minds of the public.

I notice that southern europe currently favours wet & wild conditions - this would suggest a southerly jet with northerly blocking perhaps, negative NAO style winter.. but with average precipitation values for UK could add the spice we missed in recent years.