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Met Office Winter forecast - Updated Feb 6th


Dawlish

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Posted
  • Location: Oslo
  • Location: Oslo

Very good news for most of us!

---

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
Very good news for most of us!

---

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

How much more fence sitting could there be!!!!!

Even chance of wetter or drier and colder or warmer. Is this a forecast?

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

:D

Seems like the MetO have moved from their forecast of a mild winter towards a more average type, something I didn't expect them to do! They even hint that the signals are there that may lean towards a colder winter!

AM

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Posted
  • Location: Oslo
  • Location: Oslo

I think it is interesting that they have changed from mild to normal, and that they single out the late winter season with a signal for lower temperatures and increase in cold snaps!

The European precipiation map suggests that depressions may have a southerly track this winter, that is a good sign.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

End...

Think the bits in bold sum the forecast up, somewhat edging their bets at this time...

Dave

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

PLEASE when referring to this or anyone elses' LRF for winter PLEASE quote their EXACT words not some version of your own.

This is NOT a comment on the 2 already posted but a plea for those that follow.

John

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
I think it is interesting that they have changed from mild to normal, and that they single out the late winter season with a signal for lower temperatures and increase in cold snaps!

The European precipiation map suggests that depressions may have a southerly track this winter, that is a good sign.

I liked this bit at the end though:

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may continue as emerging signals become established

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Oslo
  • Location: Oslo

This is also interesting:

Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter. However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late-winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I liked this bit at the end though:

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may continue as emerging signals become established

:D

I like that too AM. Scandi I agree it is hinting at southerly tracking jet and maybe they have been reading our views on this forum :D:D I must admit I was surprised at their early indication...it wasn't as I read the signs [not that means much ;) ] but it certainly went against some of the early views of our revered friends on here. This hints at the Russian HP/Scandi wanting to show its hand...it will in early Jan ;)

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

:D

PLEASE when referring to this or anyone elses' LRF for winter PLEASE quote their EXACT words not some version of your own.

This is NOT a comment on the 2 already posted but a plea for those that follow.

John

Quietly confident.... :D

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

admin/mods

we already have 2 on this topic, can you pse merge the other one into this. To be fair it was the first out on the site?

tks

John

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

It's what you call a cold reading. Doesn't really say anything really.

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

I like that ofrecast. From both the page there and the graphs for the UK on the link in the page, it's almost like the met office is saying "Your guess is as good as ours really, but at least we've come to this conclusion scientifically."

Absolutely fantastic. lol

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Yes, this is very good news, and fits in with a lot of thoughts about a milder start and a colder end.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

So it could be warmer than average or could be colder than average.

Well they ain't going to be wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Location: West Sussex

This is a big surprise to me. I was expecting them to stick with their beloved milder/ zonal/ westerly theme.

Basically its still too early to tell (even by LRF standards) but I get the feeling the Daily Express yesterday was tipped off by someone giving false information with their front page reading 'Winter to be our new Summer'... the usual sensationalist rubbish that puts stupid ideas into the minds of the public.

I notice that southern europe currently favours wet & wild conditions - this would suggest a southerly jet with northerly blocking perhaps, negative NAO style winter.. but with average precipitation values for UK could add the spice we missed in recent years. :D:D

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
So it could be warmer than average or could be colder than average.

Well they ain't going to be wrong.

It could be wetter or drier too-looks like they will be right :D:D

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I hope that it is not drier, winter 2006 was the 6th driest in the past 100 years.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Location: West Sussex

This is a big surprise to me. I was expecting them to stick with their beloved milder/ zonal/ westerly theme.

Basically its still too early to tell (even by LRF standards) but I get the feeling the Daily Express yesterday was tipped off by someone giving false information with their front page reading 'Winter to be our new Summer'... the usual sensationalist rubbish that puts stupid ideas into the minds of the public.

I notice that southern europe currently favours wet & wild conditions - this would suggest a southerly jet with northerly blocking perhaps, negative NAO style winter.. but with average precipitation values for UK could add the spice we missed in recent years.

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