Met Office Winter forecast - Updated Feb 6th

[Guest Viking141]

Sounds a reasonably good forecast to me, probably indicating a winter that's likely to be close to last winter in terms of overall temperature which would be reasonable for recent years anyway. They mention about El Nino developing, and in 97-98 there was a strong El Nino and we all know what a disastrously mild winter in the UK that one turned into. At least they have not gone for a 97-98 disaster. Is this coming winter's El Nino likely to be a strong one or a weak one? They did issue a positive NAO forecast in July, but to me it suggests they are now expecting a more neutral NAO with it going either way at times.

The Met Office to me seem as though they are suggesting that a winter similar to 05-06 or even 00-01 is a likely outcome at this stage, but with an El Nino on the development, in my view increases the chance of the winter turning out a real stinker like 97-98.

I know winter 97-98 had a strong El Nino in place, but what other winters did. I do not know myself and neither do I know winters that had a weak El Nino in place.

Given all that I have read on here recently regarding this I think what is expected is a very weak El Nino which shouldnt have too much effect - hopefully!

[crimsone]

My god! It's Satsigs 2 already! lol

With regard to the average - would I be mistaken in saying that with this kind of long range forecast, the methodology lies with comparison to the most common setups of previous years related to given signals?

This being the case, surely the average would need to move with the times to an extent (like 30 year spans) in order to have a better comparison for likely setups?

I would have thought that where information is so limited, such a source of information would be an invaluable piece to the puzzle, and so would need to be kept reasonably recent in order to be valid for the forecast.

Or on the other hand, I may be completely looney. lol

[Guest Viking141]

My god! It's Satsigs 2 already! lol

With regard to the average - would I be mistaken in saying that with this kind of long range forecast, the methodology lies with comparison to the most common setups of previous years related to given signals?

This being the case, surely the average would need to move with the times to an extent (like 30 year spans) in order to have a better comparison for likely setups?

I would have thought that where information is so limited, such a source of information would be an invaluable piece to the puzzle, and so would need to be kept reasonably recent in order to be valid for the forecast.

Or on the other hand, I may be completely looney. lol

No, you're right, you are a loony!

[crimsone]

lol. thought I might be

I should add here though that there is a bit of a typo in my post there. I didn't mean to imply that I was wondering if that was the methodology for the whole forecast - just whether it might play a substantial part. Not that it matters, the answer is no. lol

Viking - I award you the advanced certificate in BS detection. (unfortunately it's quite large, and so if you could paypal me £10 for postage, or better still, sent cash to... :lol:

Edited September 22, 2006 by crimsone

[High Altitude]

What gets me is that the average temp. is getting higher and higher with the continual warming trend. If we get an average winter this year then compared to maybe 30 years this would be considered above average winter.

So if the warming trend continues it could be possible that in another 30 years time even a below average winter could be considerably mild as the average gets higher.

In time this could distort our perception of what to expect in a cold winter and what to expect in a warm one.

What the general public would consider cold in todays times would be considered quite normal x amount of years ago so as the average goes up so does perception of hot and cold.

I hope this makes sense as i know what i'm trying to say but i'm struggling somewhat to put it into words!

[drgl]

What gets me is that the average temp. is getting higher and higher with the continual warming trend. If we get an average winter this year then compared to maybe 30 years this would be considered above average winter.

So if the warming trend continues it could be possible that in another 30 years time even a below average winter could be considerably mild as the average gets higher.

In time this could distort our perception of what to expect in a cold winter and what to expect in a warm one.

What the general public would consider cold in todays times would be considered quite normal x amount of years ago so as the average goes up so does perception of hot and cold.

I hope this makes sense as i know what i'm trying to say but i'm struggling somewhat to put it into words!

Makes perfect sense to me!

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't know what to believe! At first I thought we had a 'pattern shift' with some good blocking over both summer and winter starting to suggest that this winter would bring more of the same, and of course depending where the 'block' lies could lead to some very cold periods.

Now we have an El-Nino throw a spanner in the works (one that was not spotted 'a year out') but , because it wasn't writ large over the preceding months, is set to be a 'weak event' which may, or may not, change things. If it is to bring more precipitation then that (to me) casts doubts on the blocking scenario and so too the extended cold periods.It does however bring into play the PM events that occasionally dump a lot of frozen precipitation on our western side through winter courtesy of deep lows drawing in cold PM flows packed with showers.

What to think? what to think?

[The Enforcer]

On the plus side, I suppose at least it means the winter may not be yet another write off. Something for everyone would be good, but I have this suspicion that it will only be wet when it is mild and dry when it is cold, as usual.

[Bilz]

Well last winter looked full of promise after the Met Office issued their 'below average' forecast during the autumn of 05, but I don't seem to recall a more bitterly disappointing and uneventful winter during my lifetime. Although it was below average in the south, there weren't really any notable cold snaps, snowfalls or gobsmackingly-cold temperatures. Instead it was week after week of rather cold weather by day and a slight frost by night, and these conditions just dragged on into late-March.

So I don't want a repeat of that thankyou - too boring. Give me mild and wet if it means we get a decent storm this winter.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Bilz, from memory, the forecast for below average was actually for the s/e quadrant. So it was pretty good in terms of forecast accuracy. But I get what your saying in terms of personal disappointment.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don't know what to believe! At first I thought we had a 'pattern shift' with some good blocking over both summer and winter starting to suggest that this winter would bring more of the same, and of course depending where the 'block' lies could lead to some very cold periods.

Now we have an El-Nino throw a spanner in the works (one that was not spotted 'a year out') but , because it wasn't writ large over the preceding months, is set to be a 'weak event' which may, or may not, change things. If it is to bring more precipitation then that (to me) casts doubts on the blocking scenario and so too the extended cold periods.It does however bring into play the PM events that occasionally dump a lot of frozen precipitation on our western side through winter courtesy of deep lows drawing in cold PM flows packed with showers.

What to think? what to think?

GW

Jan 1978 was CET of 3.4 which is .6C below average. It was a wet month but clearly cold and mobile. Remember just because we are affected by LP and precipitation it doesn't mean zoneality at all and if we get continuous true zoneality only then has blocking gone. There was what I call a zonal start but Blocks throughout the month appeared over Greenland, Scandi and the arctic HP and we saw Lps cross us bringing very cold air over us and also periods of LPs travelling from NW to SE. Admittedly the NW benefited most overall but it was a good winter month and I'm sure would be acceptable to most

BFTP

Edited September 22, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[VillagePlank]

For five months away there is an awful lot of hot air, here; don't scare the snow away

[Big Bear]

GW

Remember just because we are affected by LP and precipitation it doesn't mean zoneality at all and if we get continuous true zoneality only then has blocking gone.

BFTP

Sorry but I have to disagree there. In recent winters with high precipitation is has nine times out of ten been spawned from the large tepid mass of liquid to our south west in the form of filthy Atlantic lows.

Can anyone remember getting a soaking NOT originating from the SW or a proper powdering from the north or east since 1991? (Scotland excluded).

[Hiya]

Sorry but I have to disagree there. In recent winters with high precipitation is has nine times out of ten been spawned from the large tepid mass of liquid to our south west in the form of filthy Atlantic lows.

Can anyone remember getting a soaking NOT originating from the SW or a proper powdering from the north or east since 1991? (Scotland excluded).

That reminds me actually, Scotland never got any snow on low ground last winter purely from a westerly. I like them, a casual couple of inches.

[Big Bear]

That reminds me actually, Scotland never got any snow on low ground last winter purely from a westerly. I like them, a casual couple of inches.

Better than the south coast, which saw nothing other than a couple of sleety showers and a few frosts in December.

I am predicting a huge anti cyclone to position itself over Norway by the end of December. Whether we get the lows diving underneath this HP into France or not, is the question on everyones lips.

With a southerly tracking Jet also predicted for early Jan I think we can safely say it will be a very cold new year perhaps with some snow if the high pressure holds.

[Dawlish]

GW

Jan 1978 was CET of 3.4 which is .6C below average. It was a wet month but clearly cold and mobile. Remember just because we are affected by LP and precipitation it doesn't mean zoneality at all and if we get continuous true zoneality only then has blocking gone. There was what I call a zonal start but Blocks throughout the month appeared over Greenland, Scandi and the arctic HP and we saw Lps cross us bringing very cold air over us and also periods of LPs travelling from NW to SE. Admittedly the NW benefited most overall but it was a good winter month and I'm sure would be acceptable to most

BFTP

January 1978 was in a different climate, effectively. A pre-warming trend climate. Much as it would be nice to compare to such months and much as it is interesting to remember what they were like, sitting here in 2006, we are just in a different climatic world. The odds against a CET of 3.4 have lengthened considerably since then. Not impossible, just a fair bit more unlikely than it was nearly 30 years ago.

Paul

Edited September 22, 2006 by Dawlish

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

January 1978 was in a different climate, effectively. A pre-warming trend climate. Much as it would be nice to compare to such months and much as it is interesting to remember what they were like, sitting here in 2006, we are just in a different climatic world. The odds against a CET of 3.4 have lengthened considerably since then. Not impossible, just a fair bit more unlikely than it was nearly 30 years ago.

Paul

Save me checking what odds are you offering

BFTP

[Bilz]

For five months away there is an awful lot of hot air, here; don't scare the snow away

5 months? I thought winter began in December?

[VillagePlank]

5 months? I thought winter began in December?

The cold part is progged for February?

[Guest Mr_S]

5 months? I thought winter began in December?

/me waits for a new thread to appear as per every year on when the seasons officially start

Winter solstice happens around 22 December and marks the start of winter. From then on, the days start getting longer.

Well done Bilz

but thats a wee off topic...

I Think reading everyones posts and looking at the meto forecast - they are making a very fair call.

Yes ok it did make me laugh how they've sat on the fence for most part of the forecast - but they did hint towards a colder winter.

"The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may continue as emerging signals become established"

And we are only in september, Alot can change in the coming months, And as we all know its very hard 2 predict the weather, even a week away (T144) is only really worth looking at for trends and comparrison. I would imagine even our very own LRF-ers have gotten it wrong - and who here is right 100% of the time? I know im not.

I dont think we should nitpick at the meto for this fact. Even more so given La nina was forecast if im not mistaken at the start of the hurricane season and now with higher then forecast SST's - El Nino has taken affect.

Only time will tell and fair play to the meto for braving a call and admitting their early signals were wrong so they changed it.

Could many of us actually sit here and say 100% certain what will happen in detail??? And be 100% accurate. I doubt it (no offence to the actual forecasters here of course)

Edited September 22, 2006 by Mr_S

[KTtom]

/me waits for a new thread to appear as per every year on when the seasons officially start

Winter solstice happens around 22 December and marks the start of winter. From then on, the days start getting longer.

Well done Bilz :blink:

but thats a wee off topic...

I Think reading everyones posts and looking at the meto forecast - they are making a very fair call.

Yes ok it did make me laugh how they've sat on the fence for most part of the forecast - but they did hint towards a colder winter.

"The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may continue as emerging signals become established"

And we are only in september, Alot can change in the coming months, And as we all know its very hard 2 predict the weather, even a week away (T144) is only really worth looking at for trends and comparrison. I would imagine even our very own LRF-ers have gotten it wrong - and who here is right 100% of the time? I know im not.

I dont think we should nitpick at the meto for this fact. Even more so given La nina was forecast if im not mistaken at the start of the hurricane season and now with higher then forecast SST's - El Nino has taken affect.

Only time will tell and fair play to the meto for braving a call and admitting their early signals were wrong so they changed it.

Could many of us actually sit here and say 100% certain what will happen in detail??? And be 100% accurate. I doubt it (no offence to the actual forecasters here of course)

Could never agree more Mr.S

After last year the METO got it 100% right IMO after others got it 100% wrong lets be honest whatever the MET predict be it mild or cold they have access to more info than everyone here has,,,if they predicted the new ice age then they would be god on here..(sure John will back me on this) but at least they have had the guts to release their thoughts as they appear at the moment.

Without the MET most here would not koow what they do...don't knock them.....last year shows who knows best??

KT

[coldfingers]

I think the MetO winter forecast is superb! Mild for all the mild rampers in early winter then Jan/Feb/Marfor us cold lovers Personally I would love Atlantic Gales until new Year then heavy drifts of snow after but I better warn you, I am the unluckiest person on this earth!! :blink:

[Snowly does it]

I think the MetO winter forecast is superb! Mild for all the mild rampers in early winter then Jan/Feb/Marfor us cold lovers Personally I would love Atlantic Gales until new Year then heavy drifts of snow after but I better warn you, I am the unluckiest person on this earth!! :blink:

They don't really say it will be mild in December though.... thats just the implication from close to average with a possible cold ending

[mcweather]

A very interesting Met Office winter forecast this time round. The inference being that although things are on a knife edge at the moment, they feel that the 'further developments' they mention will take in a colder direction rather than a mild one. I expect that the November update will confirm this and probabaly put a bit more meat on the bones.

[The Enforcer]

I expect that the November update will confirm this and probabaly put a bit more meat on the bones.

Probably go back to mild again.

The late winter rally is becoming old hat now. It reminds me of The Battle of The Bulge in WW2 where in spite of a tremendous amount of effort the impact is very limited in the greater scheme of things.