Met Office Winter forecast - Updated Feb 6th

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

As in last month's forecast, probabilities weakly favour temperatures warmer than 1971-2000 averages over much of western and central Europe. However, there has been a return to a finely balanced situation over northern Europe where the influence of El Niño may encourage cold outbreaks during mid to late winter; at times such outbreaks can be expected to affect parts of the UK.

For the UK, December is expected to continue mild in most regions. Near average or warmer-than-average temperatures are the more likely outcomes for the winter period as a whole with the potential for lower temperatures (relative to average) in mid to late winter.

Precipitation

Signals for precipitation from our forecasting methods are mixed over Europe, and in most regions there is no clear indication for either above or below normal.

For the UK, above-average rainfall is likely to continue through much of December, and best estimates slightly favour average or above-average precipitation for the winter as a whole.

[Theresnoway]

Thanks Atlantic!

[Glacier Point]

That's actually a pretty good revision to the concecensus forecast on NW with increasing probability of colder snaps January onwards.

UKMET were on their own with their strong El Nino and have revised this down to moderate. They may still be over-doing this and we could be in 'weak' territory making the next revision of the forecast downward further a distinct possibility.

Also, what gets me, they seem to have completely abandoned or not mentioned the statistical guidance (its mentioned in the preamble) but I fail to see where +ve NAO comes into the forecast ?

Once again, I think they have gone with their global forecast model and not the May SSTA method (they did claim last year was a statistical method forecast but I have my doubts about this).

[karyo]

That's not as bad as I expected and in fact it is not far from GR's and Sm'S winter forecast. I quite like the mentioning to "a return to a more finely balanced situation"!

Karyo

[The PIT]

Perhaps they ought to drop europe into a seperate forecast as it's one huge area and leave the UK on it's own. I'm not particularly interested in Europe unless it's storms moving up from France or Spain or the wind comes from the east.

Well they seem confident that Decemeber will be mild. I presume the nexts update is Jan

[The Enforcer]

"However, there has been a return to a finely balanced situation over northern Europe where the influence of El Niño may encourage cold outbreaks during mid to late winter; at times such outbreaks can be expected to affect parts of the UK."

This suggests to me nothing more in terms of snowfall than we've been getting in recent winters, irrespective of whether it generates a winter CET at average or below. The use of the words "finely balanced" alludes to the fact that any snowfall would not be widespread, rather it would be marginal and localised with higher ground exposed to the northern and eastern coasts doing ok and lower ground inland faring poorly.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi TE.

As you would probably know yourself, I would say the METO forecast would be in relation to temperature and rainfall, rather than any specific snow falls (amounts, locations or severity) B)

[kold weather]

Hmm, pretty much what most of us have been saying in terms of long range forecasts, mild December, cooling down for Jan and Feb, but uncertainty over El nino, sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[VillagePlank]

"However, there has been a return to a finely balanced situation over northern Europe where the influence of El Niño may encourage cold outbreaks during mid to late winter; at times such outbreaks can be expected to affect parts of the UK."

This suggests to me nothing more in terms of snowfall than we've been getting in recent winters, irrespective of whether it generates a winter CET at average or below. The use of the words "finely balanced" alludes to the fact that any snowfall would not be widespread, rather it would be marginal and localised with higher ground exposed to the northern and eastern coasts doing ok and lower ground inland faring poorly.

Yes, all indications seem to point to an average winter. Average being the sort of winter one expected between 1971-2000 which means it could do almost anything!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Finely balanced means not marginal events IMO but literally it could go either way from Jan onwards. As expected by the big guns the METO have revised back again....and this even with the way Dec is going. Don't lose hope folks B)

BFTP

[Lincs Observation]

Well looks like splinters in the buttocks of the meto as they edge their bets on the fence, seems to me little change from the last one. Mind you in thier defence still long way off mid winter and frankly anything could happen.

LO

[Snowly does it]

Very similar to the last forecast except they now clearly favour some of their September thoughts comin into play for Jan/Feb. December mild with it running at 10 or so now is not that much of a shock. Interesting..

[Evo]

As Ian states, they've got most bases covered there. I'm certain this is as a result of the current fads of litigation-awareness and accountability in public office. It's no longer acceptable for someone in a public organisation such as the Met Office to have an opinion which could possibly turn out wrong. I don't blame them, I blame others further up the pecking order...

I also wonder if their statistical analysis continues to throw up oddball outcomes as analogues (such as 1962/3, with which there is plenty to correlate with what's going on now) How do you handle that? There's no way you could say that in January it's going to be like 1963. Then you have confusing signals with the NH El Nino reaction in the last couple of weeks being stronger than it perhaps should have been - will it continue?

I think their call of "average" is all they can do in their position, probably remembering that "the trend is your friend" (long term trend that is).

[Gavin P]

I would say the most likely explaination is that the Met's dynamic model continues to throw out this kind of output;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

Which has been consistenly showing a marked cool down for February and March. Of course, its much to far out to take this kind of experimental model output with certainty, hence the caveats.

[mcweather]

Finely balanced means not marginal events IMO but literally it could go either way from Jan onwards. As expected by the big guns the METO have revised back again....and this even with the way Dec is going. Don't lose hope folks B)

BFTP

quite so blast from the past if one is finely balanced upon a high wire one can fall either way. and however one descrobes it a fall from a high wire is never marginal

[The Enforcer]

"However, there has been a return to a finely balanced situation over northern Europe where the influence of El Niño may encourage cold outbreaks during mid to late winter; at times such outbreaks can be expected to affect parts of the UK."

I have highlighted the key words here that in my view indicate that the metoffice are not predicting the sort of sustained cold spell that might generate widespread snowfall, otherwise the above caveats would not exist.

[Snowly does it]

"However, there has been a return to a finely balanced situation over northern Europe where the influence of El Niño may encourage cold outbreaks during mid to late winter; at times such outbreaks can be expected to affect parts of the UK."

I have highlighted the key words here that in my view indicate that the metoffice are not predicting the sort of sustained cold spell that might generate widespread snowfall, otherwise the above caveats would not exist.

However under their last 'milder' update they caveated with the possiblity of cold snaps, this is a backtrack towards colder than they originally expected however they caveat it.

Naturally, no results are confirmed correct until after the event.

They cannot at this point, nor would they, predict widespread snowfall, the synoptics necessary for this cannot be seen 2 months out from the event, only generic flow and potential.

[The Enforcer]

I appreciate that their outlook has got colder and that they have not made any predictions as far as snowfall is concerned. What they have done is made some fairly clear comments as to how cold incursions are likely to develop and from that I am able to deduce what the likely implications for snowfall would be from such colder interludes, based on the experiences of recent UK winters.

Edited December 5, 2006 by The Enforcer

[Gavin P]

The thing is, you don't need a massive amount of severe cold, to get snow. At this far out, the Met simply wouldn't know how much snow may fall in any cold snaps in February.

[The Enforcer]

The thing is, you don't need a massive amount of severe cold, to get snow. At this far out, the Met simply wouldn't know how much snow may fall in any cold snaps in February.

True, but I don't see the word "severe" being used in the forecast.

[Gavin P]

True, but I don't see the word "severe" being used in the forecast.

Thats what I'm saying. It could just be moderatly cold, but still quite snowey, as long as the jet and the pressure belts are all in the correct positions (which the met wouldn't know this far out)

[shuggee]

Update here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...06_7/index.html

[The Enforcer]

Consistent with IB's updated forecast and with GP/SM/BF's predictions for colder weather to pitch up in the latter half of the winter. I wouldn't discount cooler periods, but I do think that, as usual, snowfall will be very limited for one reason or the other.

[VillagePlank]

The 'frequency' of cold spells to increase? As far as I can tell there's only been one (and that because of the H in December), so if we have two in the remaining 7 weeks then their forecast will be a resounding success!!

[Theresnoway]

Updated Winter forecast from the Met-Office - Released 6th Feb

Issued 6 February 2007

The Met Office forecast for the winter period (December 2006 to February 2007) was first issued in August 2006 with monthly updates thereafter. The forecast indicated that:

for temperature, near-average or warmer-than-average were the more likely outcomes for the winter as a whole, but that there was potential for lower temperatures (relative to average) later in the season.

for rainfall, average or above-average amounts were predicted to be the more likely outcomes.

Forecast for the remainder of Winter 2006/7

The forecast update below is based on latest indications for the remainder of the winter season.

Temperature

The Met Office is expecting further cold snaps with the possibility of snowfall through the remainder of this month and these are likely to extend into March. Although there will be variations in the temperature from week-to-week, overall, for the rest of February, the temperature is expected to be around average.

Precipitation

There continues to be an indication for average or above-average precipitation through the remainder of the winter.

See how the winter is shaping up...

Although this forecast runs until the end of February, it is recognised that winter weather can often extend beyond this period.

In March, we will publish a review of the actual winter season and how it compared with the forecast we issued.