Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

AURORAS OVER THE SOUTH POLE: On July 10th, observers are reportingbutterfly-shaped auroras directly over the South Pole. The shape of the southern auroral oval often leaves the South Pole in a "doughnut hole" of poor visibility, but today is an exception. [aurora gallery] Spaceweather.com

Edited July 10, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

POISED TO EXPLODE? Big sunspot AR1520 has been relatively quiet for the past 24 hours, but this could be the calm before the storm. The sunspot has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.

SOLAR ARCHIPELAGO: Sunspots are magnetic islands on the sun. Sunspot AR1520 is a complete archipelago. Scroll down to scan more than 200,000 miles of island chain:

Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman took the picture on July 10th from his backyard observatory in Buffalo, New York. "AR1520 is a tremendous archipelago and a wonderful target for backyard solar telescopes," he says.

The tangled magnetic canopy of the sunspot group, shown here in an extreme UV image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-class flares during the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

CALM BEFORE THE STORM? Big sunspot AR1520 has been relatively quiet for the past 48 hours, but this could be the calm before the storm. The sunspot has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Spaceweather.com

Sunspot 1520 harbors energy for X-class solar flare

BY CHILLYMANJARO – JULY 11, 2012POSTED IN: SOLAR WATCH

Sunspot 1520 remains a large sunspot cluster and may produce isolated M-Class and X-class flares. Aside from the pocket of sunspots in the southern hemisphere, the remainder of the visible solar disk is currently spotless. AR1520 stretches more than 140,000 km (11 Earth diameters) from end to end.

Size comparison of AR1520 to Jupiter. (Credit: Camilla_SDO on Twitter)

Big sunspot AR1520 has been relatively quiet for the past 24 hours, but this could be the calm before the storm. The sunspot has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.

An extreme UV image of active region 1520 from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory

A 5-day sequence of sunspot group AR1520. (Credit: Shahrin Ahmad, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

The tangled magnetic canopy of the sunspot group, shown here in an extreme UV images from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-class flares during the next 24 hours.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

X flare in progress!

[Polar Maritime]

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the blast site:

The UV and X-ray pulse from the flare will have partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere on the dayside of our planet, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals. Watch the Realtime Space Weather Gallery for possible reports of sudden ionospheric disturbances and other effects. Spaceweather.com

[Love Snow]

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the blast site:

The UV and X-ray pulse from the flare will have partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere on the dayside of our planet, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals. Watch the Realtime Space Weather Gallery for possible reports of sudden ionospheric disturbances and other effects. Spaceweather.com

Ain't an X flare the biggest one you can get?

[Polar Maritime]

Ain't an X flare the biggest one you can get?

There are different types of X flares, but yes.... it's in the highest category. Here is a link to explain http://www.nasa.gov/...ass-flares.html, and this current one is earth directed.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Crepuscular Ray]

Ain't an X flare the biggest one you can get?

Yes, X flares are the biggest, but X1.4 is at the low end of the category. The major event in 2003 was variously described as X28 or X45, depending on who you believe.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Crepuscular Ray

[Polar Maritime]

The CME has a speed of about 1400 km/s and is directed towards Earth. But its impact will more than likely be very minor. We await more information but we may only be graced with some cool aurora at higher latitudes tomorrow night or into the next day. More soon.

Type O CME detected July 12, 2012 at 16:54 UT; spacecraft between Sun and Earth can be impacted

Read more: http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/20120712-AL-005

Data: http://go.nasa.gov/LSvyzm

[Love Snow]

Thanks both how big the flare was that caused the Carrington event of the 1850?

Edited July 12, 2012 by Love Snow

[Crepuscular Ray]

No one knows for certain how big the Carrington flare was, but it's been guessed at as at least X10.

[Polar Maritime]

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation, shown here in a movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The UV pulse partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway, Irelandand Italy recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.

Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks "S1" on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned. Spaceweather.com

Edited July 13, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

REVISED FORECAST: The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

SOUTH POLE AURORAS: In a possible preview of the light show to come, bright auroras have been dancing over Earth's south pole. Robert Schwarz took this picture on July 12th from the grounds of the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station:

"Yesterday we had some of the best auroras I've seen," says Schwarz.

Despite its high latitude, the South Pole is not always a good place to see the lights because it is often located in the "doughnut hole" of the aurora oval. July 12th was an exception: "Look carefully at the picture and you can see the actual Pole in the foreground" Schwarz points out.

NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of strong polar geeomagnetic storms on July 14th when a CME is expected to crash into Earth's magnetic field. More South Pole auroras could be in the offing. Spaceweather.com

[frogesque]

Now all we need is this infernal grey to clear for the weekend.

[Crepuscular Ray]

There's a possibility for some, by Sunday. Hopefully it won't be too late!

[Polar Maritime]

Aurora this weekend! The current predictions are for CME impact on Earth today between 5 - 9 am. Then on the 15th we expect a moderate geomagnetic storm. The effects should be minor but those at higher latitudes should keep an eye out for Aurora. This includes the northern most 48-states, canada, alaska, northern europe and southern most australia/new zealand. Take note that the maximum range for the predictions is a severe strong.

[Polar Maritime]

IMPACT! As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 14th (1800 UT). Geomagnetic storms and auroras are in the offing. Stay tuned for updates. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

SUNDAY MORNING SKY SHOW: Set your alarm for dawn on Sunday morning, July 15th. Venus, Jupiter and the crescent Moon are gathering for a bright three-way conjunction in the eastern sky before sunrise. Must-see! [

] [photos]

HOT COMET: Periodic comet 96P/Maccholz is passing by the sun today deep inside the orbit of Mercury. At closest approach, the icy visitor from the outer solar system will be less than 12 million miles (0.13 AU) from the solar surface.Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory are monitoring the encounter:

"Discovered in 1986, Comet 96P/Machholz is a fascinating comet that has passed through SOHO coronagraph images four times now," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab. "It's not a huge comet but it is very photogenic, and puts on quite a display with its beautiful dusty tail."

In an essay posted on his web site, Battams explains why the comet is so fascinating. Many researchers suspect 96P/Machholz is not a native of our solar system; some chemical evidence suggests it came from another star. Also, 96P/Machholz appears to be dynamically related (that is, the comet's orbit is related) to a diverse collection of other objects in the solar system including asteroid 2003 EH1 and the Quadrantid, Southern Delta Aquariid, and daytime Arietid meteoroid streams. All of these things--the asteroid, the comet, and the meteoroids--might be fragments of a single "foreign" body that broke apart thousands of years ago.

Comet 96P/Machholz will be visible in SOHO coronagraphs until July 17th. Battams believes the comet will reach a peak brightness of 2nd magnitude--not its best show. "But who knows," he says, "maybe Comet Machholz will do something completely and utterly unexpected like fragment into a swarm of Machholzlets." Join SOHO for a ringside seat. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

CME IMPACT: As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 14th at approximately 1800 UT or 11 am Pacific Daylight Time). A geomagnetic storm is brewing in the wake of the impact. At the moment, conditions appear favorable for auroras over high-latitude places such as Canada, Scandinavia, Antarctica and Siberia. It is too early to say whether the storm will intensify and bring auroras to middle latitudes as well. Stay tuned for updates. Spaceweather.com

Data showing impact of CME with Earth's magnetosphere...

Edited July 14, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[frogesque]

Starting to see a noticeable darkening in the twighlight tonight and, surprise, surprise, there's some clear sky to the North. Might be an interesting night after all!