Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

CORONAL HOLE: Spewing a stream of high-speed solar wind, a dark gap in the sun's atmosphere is turning toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the coronal hole during the early hours of June 27th:

Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular opening should reach Earth on July 1-2. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot 1512 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of such an eruption during the next 24 hours.

X THREE MILLION: On the Richter Scale of Solar Flares, X3 is considered to be a big explosion. How about X3 million? NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has seen what happens when a planet gets hit by such a flare. This artist's concept, released today by the space agency, illustrates the impact of an X3000000-class stellar flare on exoplanet HD 189733b:

The flare, detected by NASA's Swift satellite, scorched the top of the planet's atmosphere with a powerful blast of ultraviolet radiation and X-rays. Hours later, Hubble detected more than 1,000 tons of gas every second flying away at 300,000 mph. HD 189733b is a gas giant about 14% more massive than Jupiter, so it hardly misses the atmosphere it lost. Millions of years of these flares, however, will eventually make a dent even in such a massive world. So the next time there's an X-flare here in the solar system, just remember, it could be worse. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

GOES X-ray Emission for June 27-29, 2012

Over the past 24 hours, sunspot group AR11513 has increased in complexity, producing several C-class flares and 2 M-class flares, an M2.2 on June 28 at 16:07 and an M2.4 on June 29 . Both AR11513 and AR11512 show some promise for more activity including M-class flare events over the next 24 hours.

Current Sunspot Groups for June 29, 2012 (solarmonitor.org)

Here is a video of the M2 flare from June 28, 2012 at 16:07. The video was created by ahelioviewer.org user. It shows the flare in 304 angstrom light from the SDO/AIA instrument. A spray of material shoots out of the region after the peak of the flare. There might be a CME associate with the ejection of material.

Another video from the region on Jun 28, 2012 shows a C3 flare that peak in at 21 UT in X-rays. Shortly, after the flare a faint cloud of darker, cooler material flies away from the region off the solar disk to the left or East limb. This video in the 304 angstrom wavelength channel was shared by the helioviewer.org team.

Solar Ionospheric Monitor Observations from Birr, Ireland (courtesy: Dave Gradwell and spaceweather.com)

The extreme ultraviolet and X-rays from the M2 flare changed the density of the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) when it illuminated the sunward side of Earth. Radio wave propagation was disrupted by this temporary change and NOAA issued an R1 radio blackout alert. The wave of ionization was also observed as a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID). Dave Gradwell detected the disturbance over Birr, Ireland with a SID monitor.
AR11515 has also been producing some nice activity. The region produced a C4.6 X-ray flare on June 29, 2012. Edited June 29, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1513 is crackling with impulsive M-class solar flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash from one of them at 0920 UT on June 29th:

This M2-class flare (like a similar eruption yesterday) illuminated Earth's upper atmosphere with a pulse of X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation. Waves of ionization rippled over Europe, altering the propagation of low-frequency radio signals around the continent. Using a receiver tuned to 60 kHz, Rob Stammes detected the sudden ionospheric disturbance over Norway. His antennas also picked up radio waves from the flare itself at 26 MHz and 56 MHz.

More ionization waves and solar radio bursts are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of continued M-flares during the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

MASSIVE PROMINENCE: Amateur astronomers around the world are monitoring a massive, active prominence dancing along the sun's southeastern limb. If you have a solar telescope, take a look. The latest images suggest an eruption might be in the offing. Stay tuned for action.

DARK HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: Ultraviolet telescopes onboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory are monitoring a vast dark hole--a "coronal hole"--in the sun's upper atmosphere. It has just turned directly toward Earth:

Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular gap is en route to Earth, due to arrive on July 2nd or 3rd. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms and auroras. Spaceweather.com

Edited June 30, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF MAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms today in response to a high-speed solar wind stream blowing around Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.Magnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

MASSIVE PROMINENCE: Amateur astronomers around the world are monitoring a massive, active prominence dancing along the sun's southeastern limb. Andre van der Hoeven sends this picture from HI-Ambacht, the Netherlands:

Prominences are filaments of magnetism filled with glowing-hot plasma. This beautiful "prom" rises more than 40,000 km above the stellar surface and stretches more than 20 Earth-diameters from end to end. Such structures are naturally unstable, and this one could collapse at any time. Keep and eye on the latest images for developments. Spaceweather.com

[Crepuscular Ray]

Spot 1515 produced an M5.6 flare this morning. The resulting CME's not directly heading for us, but still might catch us a glancing blow in a couple of days' time. Meanwhile, there is a chance that those in the far north of the country (if there are any clear patches of sky) might see some autorae tonight as there appears to be quite a bit of activity caused by a strong solar wind.

[Polar Maritime]

ALMOST X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1515 erupted on July 2nd at 10:52 UT, producing an M5.6-class solar flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

A pulse of x-rays and UV radiation from the flare illuminated Earth's upper atmosphere, producing waves of ionization over Europe. Such waves alter the propagation of low-frequency radio transmissions. In Lofoten, Norway, Rob Stammes recorded the ionospheric disturbance using a 60 kHz receiver: data.

The eruption also hurled a CME into space, but not directly toward Earth. The south-traveling cloud could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere on July 4th or 5th. Stay tuned for updates. [SDO movie]

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

POLAR MAGNETIC STORMS: Auroras are dancing around the poles in response to a high-speed solar wind stream buffeting Earth's magnetic field. Stefan Christmann sends this picture from icy Atka Bay in Antarctica:

"On July 1st we enjoyed a beautiful display of aurora australis over the German Antarctic Research Station Neumayer III" says Christmann. "The air temperature was -30°C with 10 knots of wind. Even so, this was one of the most beautiful expierences so far."

NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of continued geomagnetic activity as the solar wind continues to blow. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I69m_o4iB-E

[Polar Maritime]

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

Solar wind

speed: 594.2 km/sec

density: 0.3 protons/cm³

The Radio Sun

10.7 cm flux: 133 sfu

Planetary K-index

Now: Kp= 2 quiet

24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field

B_total: 3.7 nT

B_z: 1.5 nT south

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (2200Z on 02 Jul 2012)

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515 (S17E04) produced an impulsive M5/2b flare at 02/1052Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 1063 km/s), a 380 sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) with most of the mass directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. It also produced an impulsive M3/2b flare at 02/2007Z associated with a 190 sfu Tenflare. This region remained large and magnetically complex (beta gamma-delta). Region 1513 (N16W09) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 02/0035Z as well as frequent B- and C-class flares. Gradual spot growth was noted in its intermediate and trailer portions and it retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the period (03 – 05 July) with M-class flares expected from Regions 1513 and 1515.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels with minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes. This activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). ACE data indicated solar wind speeds in the 580 - 722 km/s range with no discernible trend. IMF Bz was variable and ranged from +6 nT to -5 nT. Todays observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux (166 sfu) was flare-enhanced due to the M3/2b at 02/2007Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 July) as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 – 3 (04 – 05 July) as CH HSS effects gradually subside. The CME associated with todays M5/2b flare is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast period. http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2012/07/03/increased-solar-activity-another-m-class-solar-flare-from-sunspot-1515/

[Polar Maritime]

BIG SUNSPOTS: The solar disk is peppered with sunspots so large onlookers are seeing them with the naked eye. Earlier today, the clouds over Paris, France, acted as a natural solar filter to reveal active regions AR1513 and AR1515:

VegaStar Carpentier took the picture using an off-the-shelf Canon EOS 1000D digital camera set at ISO 100 for 1/80 of a second. Photographers, take note of those settings because the sunspots should remain large and obvious for at least a few more days. (Caution: Do not look at the unfiltered sun through camera optics because focused sunlight can damage your eyes. Use the LCD viewscreen for pointing.)

The sunspots are also showing up in sunrises and sunsets around the world. Browse the Realtime SpaceWeather Photo Gallery for more examples. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS: Chances of an X-flare today are increasing as sunspot AR1515 develops a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for the most powerful explosions. The sunspot's magnetic canopy is crackling withalmost-X class flares, the strongest so far being an M5-flare at 09:54 UT. Each "crackle" releases more energy than a billion atomic bombs, so these are 4th of July fireworks indeed.

The sunspot itself is huge, stretching more than 100,000 km (8 Earth-diameters) from end to end. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the behemoth growing and turning toward Earth over the past five days:

Another picture that dramatically illustrates the size of AR1515 is this 4th of July sunrise shot from Stefano De Rosa of Turin, Italy.

If any major eruptions do occur today, they will certainly be Earth-directed. The sunspot is directly facing our planet, so it is in position to cause radio blackouts, sudden ionospheric disturbances, and geomagnetic storms. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

INCOMING CME: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. On July 4th the active region hurled at least four minor CMEs into space, including one toward Earth. Click to view an animated forecast track of the incoming cloud:

According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather lab, who prepared the forecast, the cloud will reach Earth on July 7th around 0600 UT. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on that date. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

SOLAR STATIC: Sunspot AR1513 erupted on the 4th of July, producing an M2-class solar flare and a burst of shortwave radio noise that roared out of the loudspeakers of receivers on Earth. Amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft of New Mexico recorded the solar static at 21 MHz:

Dynamic spectrum courtesy of Wes Greenman, Alachua Radio Observatory, FL

"While waiting for a potential X-flare in AR1515, I captured this 'radio-active' M-flare in AR 1513," says Ashcraft. "The audio sample contains two types of solar radio emission: The Type III solar bursting starts at 15 seconds and the Type V kicks in at around one minute or so."

These radio sounds are caused by beams of electrons accelerated by the flare. As the electrons slice through the sun's atmosphere, they generate a ripple of plasma waves and radio emissions detectable on Earth 93 million miles away. More radio bursts are in the offing as AR1515 and AR1513 crackle with magnetic explosions. Ham radio operators, point your Yagis toward the sun!. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. X-flare alerts: text, voice.

NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, and it appears to be a big one. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught a first glimpse of the spot's dark cores during the early hours of July 6th:

Solar activity is already high. The addition of this new active region could boost the chance of flares even more. Check back later today as the sunspot turns more squarely toward Earth, affording a better view of its size and potential for eruptions.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

WAVES OF IONIZATION: Sunspot AR1515 is strobing Earth with C- and M-class solar flares. Each pulse of x-rays and extreme UV radiation creates a wave of ionization in our planet's upper atmosphere. These sudden ionospheric disturbances, also known as "SIDs," alter the propagation of radio signals around Earth. Yesterday, amateur scientist Roberto Battaiola detected a series of SIDs over Pantigliate, Italy:

"I monitored the radio frequency of 21.75 kHz," he says.

More SIDs are in the offing as AR1515 continues to crackle with strong solar flares. In fact, a really big SID could occur if, as expected, AR1515 produces an X-class flare before it rotates off the solar disk a few days from now. Stay tuned.

INCOMING CME: On July 4th, sunspot AR1515 hurled at least four minor CMEs into space. Most flew south of the ecliptic plane (the orbital plane of the planets), on track to miss everything. One of them, however, appears to be heading toward Earth. Click to view an animated forecast track of the incoming cloud:

According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the forecast, the cloud will reach Earth on July 7th around 0600 UT. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on that date. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

X-FLARE: For days, giant sunspot AR1515 has looked capable of producing a really strong explosion. On July 6th it finally did. Yesterday, the sunspot's magnetic canopy erupted, producing a brief but potent X1.1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

The explosion hurled a CME into space. According to this movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, the cloud appears to be heading south and away from Earth. However, we cannot yet rule out a glancing blow to our planet on July 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for further analysis.

Look at the CME movie one more time. The speckles near the end are caused by energetic protons accelerated by the flare. Guided toward Earth by solar magnetic fields, the protons are peppering Earth-orbiting satellites, causing "snow" in imaging systems and posing a slim threat for single-event upsets (computer glitches). Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

ANOTHER BIG SUNSPOT: As one big sunspot (AR1515) turns away from Earth, another one is turning toward our planet. AR1520, now emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, stretches more than 127,000 km (10 Earth diameters) from end to end:

AR1520 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. So far, however, the sunspot's magnetic canopy is crackling with lesser C-flares. The calm before the storm? NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnin3X8rTBQ&list=UUIp0KTgnQNZJIOQZqrVDw1g&index=1&feature=plcp

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) detected in the near Earth environment - second SEP event in the last 48 hours!

Full alert text: http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/20120709-AL-001

Edited July 9, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

AURORA SURPRISE: July 9th began with a brief but beautiful display of auroras over North America. "I had gone out to search for noctilucent clouds, but instead I found these Northern Lights," says Robert Snache of Rama First Nation, Ontario:

The source of the display was not an explosion on the sun, but rather a fluctuation in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF near Earth tipped south, briefly opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in and ignited the lights.

More auroras could be in the offing. A CME that left the sun on July 6th might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on July 9-10. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% to 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms if and when the cloud arrives.Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

MANY CMEs: During the late hours of July 8th, a series of rapid-fire explosions on the sun propelled three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded their exit:

Despite the number of eruptions and the breadth of the billowing ejecta, Earth is little affected. All of the clouds appear set to miss our planet. Nevertheless, this flurry of CMEs highlights the currently-high level of solar activity. It is only a matter of time before a significant CME comes our way. Stay tuned for stormy space weather. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

NORTHERN LIGHTS: For the second day in a row, Earth's polar magnetic field isunsettled and glowing with auroras. Paul Zizka sends this picture from Banff National Park in Alberta, Canada:

"Yet another sleepless night at Lake Minnesemolinaa--and it was worth it," says Zizka. "The aurora danced on and off for hours. Most of the time it was barely visible to the naked eye, but now and then Mother Nature would put on a show that was hard to miss. The displays ranged from a very interesting, long-lasting pink streak directly overhead to wild green curls and purple pillars to the north and east."

The source of the display was not an explosion on the sun, but rather a fluctuation in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). On July 9th, the IMF near Earth tipped south, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in and ignited the lights.

Solar wind conditions remain favorable for high-latitude auroras on July 10th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms. Aurora alerts:text, voice.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

BIG SUNSPOT: One of the biggest sunspots in years, AR1520, is turning toward Earth. Christian Viladrich of Nattages, France, photographed the behemoth on July 7th:

"It looks like an expanse of land on the sun," says Viladrich.

Despite the resemblance to land, however, the vast dark cores of sunspot AR1520 are not solid. They are made of magnetism. Each one is a magnetic island nearly as wide as Earth floating in a sea of solar plasma.

The magnetic field of this enormous sunspot is tangled, and harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com