Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

DOUBLE CME TARGETS EARTH: On June 14th, sunspot AR1504 erupted and hurled a CME toward Earth. The fast-moving cloud swept up another CME already en route, and the two clouds are expected to deliver a double blow to Earth's magnetic field on June 16th around 10:16 UT. This animation shows the likely progression of the approaching storm:

According to the forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CMEs will also hit Venus on June 15th and Mars on June 19th. Because Venus and Mars do not have global magnetic fields to protect them, both of those planets will probably lose tiny amounts of atmosphere when the CMEs strike.

Here on Earth, the impact is likely to trigger a geomagnetic storm around the poles. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 16th. spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

STRONG COMPRESSION OF EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE: As expected, adouble CME hit Earth's magnetic field on June 16th around 0900 UT. Intitially, the impact appeared to be weak, but now the effects are growing. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing some geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma. Geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible in tthe hours ahead. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT: A geomagnetic storm is in progress in the wake of a double CME impact on June 16th. The hit, which strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, lit up both poles with bright auroras. Stephen Voss sends this photo from Southland, New Zealand:

"We enjoyed a beautiful display of the Southern Lights from the south of New Zealand," says Voss. "A dull arc hung around for a couple of hours before suddenly exploding with a mixture of rays and curtains."

Meanwhile, in the Americas, Northern Lights descended as far south as Wisconsin,Minnesota, Iowa, Washington and the Dakotas.

Solar wind conditions in the wake of the CME favor continued disturbances. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of more high-latitude geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours.

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZiOO4p_Lfk&list=UUIp0KTgnQNZJIOQZqrVDw1g&index=1&feature=plcp

Edited June 17, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

SUBSIDING STORM: A geomagnetic storm that began on June 16th when a double CME hit Earth's magnetic field is finally subsiding. At the height of the disturbance on June 17th, Northern Lights descended as far south in the USA asMichigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Utah, Maryland, Nebraska, Washington, andthe Dakotas. Brad Goldpaint sends this picture from Crater Lake, Oregon:

Although the storm is mostly over, it could re-ignite as magnetic knots in the wake of the CME drift past Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more high-latitude geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

TRIPLE SUNSPOT: Sunspot 1504, the source of many auroras on June 16th and 17th, is decaying. Nevertheless, the behemoth is still an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Amateur astronomer François Emond sends this picture from Chorges in the French Alps:

The dark cores in Emond's image are about twice the size of Earth. Floating in a sea of hot plasma, these vast islands of magnetism are surrounded by boilinggranules big enough to swallow Texas.

It should come as no surprise that such a structure, while decaying, still poses a threat for explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-class fllares during the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5wQb9Lnef8&list=UUIp0KTgnQNZJIOQZqrVDw1g&index=1&feature=plcp

NEARLY-BLANK SUN: The departure of active sunspot AR1504 has left the Earth-facing side of the sun quiet and nearly blank. Only one small emerging sunspot interrupts the empty expanse photographed this morning by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

With no significant active regions facing Earth, NOAA forecasters estimate a mere 1% chance of strong M- or X-class solar flares. Solar activity should remain low for at least the next 24 hours. Spaceweather.com

Edited June 23, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[cooling climate]

Posted 28 April 2012 - 12:43

Solar activity continues at low levels even very low levels at times with just the occasional spike

in activity. I would not be surprised to see a blank sun at some point later in the year.

As far as solar max is concerned I think we will see another three or four spikes and that will be it

for cycle 24.

Pure conjecture of course but the sun is no where near as active as it should be so close to

max so who knows.

Above is a quote from what I had written back at the end of April.

Almost there but not quite. Spaceweather.com has a sunspot number of 13 for today,and considering

we are ment to be less than a year from solar max this is another big indicator of just how weak cycle

24 is turning out to be.

I would not be at all surprised to see the highest activity of this cycle already behind us back in

mid November last year with a sunspot number of 210 and flux of nearly 185.Perhaps tomorrow will

bring a blank day who knows although I am still fairly confident we will see one before the years end.

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

PHOTOGENIC, NOT GEOEFFECTIVE: A long filament of magnetism snaking over the sun's northwestern limb erupted this morning, hurling much of itself into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:

A bright CME billowed away from the blast site. Because of the explosion's location on the NW edge of the solar disk, the cloud will not hit Earth. This event was photogenic but not geoeffective. Spaceweather.com

[Polar Maritime]

Here is a look at the CME observed with the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The sun is blank. This is incredible and worrying.

BFTP

[Polar Maritime]

One thing is clear: During long minima, strange things happen. In 2008-2009, the Sun´s global magnetic field weakened and the solar wind subsided. Cosmic rays normally held at bay by the Sun´s windy magnetism surged into the inner solar system. During the deepest solar minimum in a century the heating action of UV rays normally provided by sunspots was absent, so Earth´s upper atmosphere began to cool and collapse.

[Polar Maritime]

COLDER DAYS AHEAD?: Sun is set to enter 'hibernation' period

The sun may be entering a period of reduced activity that could result in lower temperatures on Earth, according to Japanese researchers.

Officials of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation said on April 19 that the activity of sunspots appeared to resemble a 70-year period in the 17th century in which London’s Thames froze over and cherry blossoms bloomed later than usual in Kyoto.

In that era, known as the Maunder Minimum, temperatures are estimated to have been about 2.5 degrees lower than in the second half of the 20th century.

The Japanese study found that the trend of current sunspot activity is similar to records from that period.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075

[jonboy]

Layman's sunspot site has called for the second day a spotless sun. As others have said very unusual for so called max. Will be intresting to see what effect this might have later in the year

[Weather-history]

I don't know if this has been posted before but it is interesting how early predictions have gone awry about this solar cycle.

http://solarchaos.blogspot.co.uk/2008/11/history-of-cycle-24-predictions.html

[karyo]

Layman's sunspot site has called for the second day a spotless sun. As others have said very unusual for so called max. Will be intresting to see what effect this might have later in the year

Also, the solar flux has crashed to 88 which must be the lowest it has been for the last year!

Karyo

[Polar Maritime]

NEARLY-BLANK SUN: Except for a cluster of tiny sunspots near the sun's southwestern limb, the Earth-facing side of the sun is almost completely blank:

With no active regions in view, the chances of an Earth-directed flare are low. NOAA forecasters say the odds of an X-flare during the next 24 hours are less than 1%. Stay tuned for quiet. Spaceweather.com

[jonboy]

3rd day spotless on the laymans site and F10 flux continueing it's fall

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

COMING ATTRACTION? An active sunspot on the farside of the sun is only days away from showing itself. During the late hours of June 25th, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded an explosion which heralds the sunspot's approach:

The farside blast hurled a cloud of plasma over the sun's southeastern limb. Earth was not in the line of fire, but Mars might be. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory saw a coronal mass ejection (movie) heading in the general direction of the Red Planet. The rover Curiosity, en route to Mars now, might

as the cloud passes by. A glancing blow to Mars itself is possible on June 29th or 30th. Spaceweather.com

[jonboy]

Day 4 spotless according to the laymans site and F10 flux continues at low levels. Can we get one more day I wonder?

[Crepuscular Ray]

What does the Layman use? Gallileo's telescope? And why is sticking to his count rather than using the latest scientific information available of such importance?

Edit: Now the clouds's clearing off, I can see that spot through the loo-roll-and-microscope-objective solar scope that my Dad made me. If i can see it through that, it counts as a spot!

Edited June 26, 2012 by Crepuscular Ray

[jonboy]

The laymans site is worth a visit if only to understand why they use the method they do but in brief they are aiming to compare eggs with eggs rather than trying to compare old records with records obtained with the latest technology. If you visit the site they do use modern scientific papers to try and explain what is happening.

Perhaps the artic ice discussion would benefit from this approach as modern satelite technology in my opinion skews our perspective of how ice extent may have been in the past.

[Methuselah]

Surely, with all the cutting-edge software available, someone ought to be able to calibrate things in such a way as to facilitate direct comparisons between modern equipment and 'ancient' telescopes?