December CET

[guitarnutter]

I have opened this topic a poll to see what you think the December CET will be.

Edited November 21, 2006 by guitarnutter

[kold weather]

Oh i'm very uncertain about this December, I suspect we are going to be on the edge of both some decent cold and some very mild weather, with prehaps a bit of both in the month. I suspect we will find oursleves being ruled by one way or another by the jet stream for a good period of the month but exactly where all the other blocks fall into play will o my mind determine the exact CET for December and its something I've not made my mind up on yet.

My intial punt went for 4.4C but I think I'm going to adjust it upwards before I make my final punt as I suspect overall it'll be a touch milder then I first expected until we see a change to a colder pattern...though not cold straight away.

[Weather-history]

There has never been a December with a CET of 5.9, despite a number having a CET of 5.8 or 6.0

[summer blizzard]

I believe we will have a below average first week followed by a very warm second week before a very wet second half, so i will go for a December CET of 5.6C.

[Snowly does it]

I have been going for December as a cold month for quite a while and see no reason to alter that stance (being wrong aside)

I will go for a sub 3 month. 2.9 to be precise. Cold first week before returning to average/mild and a bitter 20th-31st

[Don]

I'm going for 5.6 with general wet weather with the odd northerly incursion.

[Optimus Prime]

Interesting, December is the only month in the last 11 years to have shown no warming trend. And in comparison to the 71-000 average a significant cooling trend.

The last 11 Decembers;

1995; 2.3c

1996; 2.9c

1997; 5.8c

1998; 5.5c

1999; 5.0c

2000; 5.8c

2001; 3.6c

2002; 5.7c

2003; 4.7c

2004; 5.3c

2005; 4.4c

The average period 1995-2005 4.6c. 0.5c below the 71-000 period and average to the 61-90 period.

From 1990-1999 6/10 December were below average. 3 well below average (1992, 1995 and 1996) Since then only 2001 was well below average (1.6c below the 71-000 period)

Even the 2000-2005 period is slightly below the 71-000 average and slightly above the 61-90 average.

I have a feeling December will carry on some sort of cold trend. I'm going for 3.1c.

[Anti-Mild]

My own seasonal LRF had a December CET of 5.9c.....but......now I'm not so sure. I think we will see a pattern change to colder conditions around the end of the first week and that may persist.

As a result, my punt for December is......

4.4c 3.8c 5.1c 10.1c

Oh I don't know at the moment!! I'll have decided in a few days !!

[Rollo]

I feel December will be a month of two halves meteorologically speaking-mild to very mild at first then much colder-my punt is 4.1c.

[kold weather]

Very intresting to see people are going for decently below average condtions, also some intresting stats OP. i'm really in two minds about December's CET. i suspect the first 5 days will be decently above average, by exactly how much depends exactly on the flow. After that it'll probably slowly but surely erode.

For now I think depsite wanting to go with a slightly higher CET I'll hold fire with 4.4C and the same CEt as last Dece,ber...though I wil lchange that as the models resolve the set-up after the transition period between 144-300hrs currently.

[Evo]

6.0

Yes, yes, I know *Booo* *Hisssss*

[Serendipity]

3.6 is my prediction

[Geordiesnow]

4.6!

[Mark Bayley]

My call is 3.9C. I expect a major change to colder conditions to take place by the end of the first week of December.

I favour northerly episodes and settled anti-cyclonic weather thereafter before we see the Atlantic return before Xmas.

I agree with you i think we should see very cold temps and a big snowfall around the second week with mild weather returning for the last week

[West is Best]

6.8C

Very intresting to see people are going for decently below average condtions

Not me!

Mild winter here we come ...

[Snowyowl9]

So far my stab at the CET have all come in below what the actual figure is so only for this month of the winter I`ll go for an above average month at 5.9c.

[Nick F]

5.2C - near average for me, cold end to first week, mild midmonth then cold end.

[ukmoose]

A little early...but I'm going for 5.4 for December.

Mostly mild and breezy with a couple of short frosty spells in the second and third weeks. Very mild between Christmas and into the New Year but quite possible colder in the north at times with snow over the hills at least. No snow in the south at all.

Moose

[fishdude]

I reckon, 4.0C

[Stargazer]

Not much sign of any cold weather yet - let's say 6.1.

[SP1986]

7.1C mild, rain, no snow below 200m

[memories of 63]

I believe in Father Christmas Rick Leming. 2.0 for me :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Optimus Prime]

I'd be really surprised if we get a very mild one. Others years have shown that a below average December often follows a very warm year.

1995 a great example. Apart from March all months were above average. One of the warmest summers on record and the warmest August should have guarenteed a yearly CET around the 11.0 mark? But one of the coldest Decembers ever prevented that.

If December 1995 had come out bang on average (5.1c) the yearly average would have been 10.8c. But December ended up at just 2.3c and it was even colder for Scotland. That was also after a rather mild November. In fact there are some fairly notable simularities between 1995 and 2006;

1995 2006

January; 4.8c 4.3c

February; 6.5c 3.7c

March; 5.6c 4.9c

April; 9.1c 8.6c

May; 11.6c 12.3c

June; 14.3c 15.8c

July; 18.6c 19.7c

August; 19.2c 16.1c

September; 13.7c 16.6c

October; 12.9c 12.9c!

November; 7.7c ??? (possibly 8.0c)

The average from January-October 1995, 11.6c. In comparison to so far this year its 11.49c only slightly cooler than 95'...a strikeingy resemblance!

Also, 1976 if not an even better example;

1976 2006

January; 5.9c 4.3c

February; 4.5c 3.7c

March; 4.8c 4.9c

April; 8.1c 8.6c

May; 12.1c 12.3c

June; 17.0c 15.8c

July; 18.7c 19.7c

August; 17.6c 16.1c

September; 13.4c 16.6c

October; 10.6c 12.9c

November; 6.3c ???

January-October 1976 had an average temperature of 11.3c in comparison to this year of 11.49c...an incredible resemblance.

Once again December was the saving grace, it had a CET almost as cold as December 1962 at 2.0c. If December was average (5.1c) the year would have come out at 10.3c instead due to a very cold December it came out at 10.08c...still quite a warm year.

1933 and 1950 also being a good example. As recently as 2005 as well.

I have a feeling that's going to be repeated this year...

Edited November 22, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[Nick H]

Others years have shown that a below average December often follows a very warm year.

I assume you mean a below average December often concludes a very warm year, but, leaving that aside, your proposition is utterly wrong.

Of the 10 warmest years in the CET records, four Decembers (1949, 1959, 1997, 2002) recorded above average temperatures, five Decembers (1989, 1990, 1999, 2003, 2004) recorded normal or near-normal temperatures, and just one (1995) recorded a below average temperature.

In fact, it's entirely logical that a warm year overall should contain a normal- or above normal-temperature for December. For any given warm year, the chance of any given month having normal- or above-normal temperatures is bound to be higher. Don't need to be Einstein to work that one out!

Edited November 22, 2006 by Nick H

[summer blizzard]

I just thought that i would say that the average December CET is 5.1C.

The warmest December CET is 8.1C set in 1934 and 1974.

The coldest December CET is -0.8C set in 1890.

Having done looked at the October data for ten teleconncetion patterns, the primary anologue is 2002, with the secondary anologues being 1982, 1980 and 1968.

Based on these anologues, i have increased confidence in my own prediction, because of the following probabilities based on thos anologues...

40% chance of a December CET between 5C and 5.9C.

20 % chance of a December CET between 4C and 4.9C.

20% chance of a December CET between 3C and 3.9C

20% chance of a December CET not between 3C and 5.9C.