Summer 2007 thoughts

[kold weather]

I think this is certainly an interesting forecast but I think one has to really careful in assuming La Nina-cooler summers, I think there is really not a lot of evidence that points to this being true, indeed I've always found that La nina means a weaker jet, reason for this is the thermal gradient between the northern latitudes and southern latitudes of the Pacific is reduced and so a weaker jet is the result. Summer 2006 was driven by a mainly neutral pattern in terms of the ENSO, its neutral which is generally the best, though weak La Nina/el nino makes very little difference IMO. It may be the case that some sort of correlation is present in strong La ninas...but I have some doubts we'll even make it to La Nina...

In terms of other factors, its hard to go against the outstanding warmth still present around Europe and even normal set-ups will probably give temps on average 2-3C above the norm.

Also I suspect the track of hurricanes will have a larger impact then in recent years. Last years hurricanes had a huge role to play in September's warmth as the track always re-enforced the warm set-up already present. I expect a similar thing may occur at times this summer, esp in August when it gets going and is one of the major reasons why I go for such a warm August, August 1995 was really helped by a very active spell of cape Verde storms which all recurved into the Atlantic and propping up the very hot set-up still present.

In terms of hurricanes and La Nina, it should be noted that difference between numbers is actually not at all much, but what it does promote is stronger hurricanes. however what does have to watched is the possibility of several very hot heat-waves occurring as the ex-hurricanes stay to our west and drag up warmth. indeed this is what happened at time sin the 95 season and to a lesser extent what happened in august 04, which managed a CET of 1.2C above average despite being the wettest August since 1956, ironically this season occured....yep...in a developing El nino. The key really will be whether or not a block does decide to form over Scandinavia again, it wa s Strong strong feature in late 05 and first half of 06 when a weak La Nina last formed and an active season would cause a lot of heat to come up. if this feature isn't there then August could end up being rather miserable.

Anyway this is my forecast:

June- Agree with NW forecast, going to be pleasant though i suspect the Azores high will always be placed too far west for us to get any real heat. 14.5C

July- A very thundery month with fairly frequent 2-3 day heat-waves, warm month, July- 17.5C.

August- Wild-card month, hurricane season should be geared up by then, all depends on blocking positions. right now i expect some exceptional heat at times, not as warm as say July 06 and August 95 but constant heat should make for a very interesting month, convective matters late in the month should make rainfall totals very varied. Could go either way however.

[Uncle_Barty]

No scientific basis for this, just gut feeling.

We are long overdue a real shocker (e.g. 1985, 1988 bar June, ) think the last one was 1998 after a decent first three weeks of May.

So my guess.. a poor June after an unsettled May, first half of July seeing a few warm sunny days before the weather breaks for good (so far as the summer months are concerned) just before mid-month. August unsettled and cool but an Indian summer makes up for it to a small degree.

On track so far unfortunately - looks set for a poor start to June...

[Roger J Smith]

Just a note that I have slightly revised my forecast for the summer upwards in terms of June's CET, after studying the set-up and the analogues, I went for 17.4 in the monthly compy, still looking for near 19 C in July and possibly a record August into the 19s or so. I believe this would produce the warmest summer average on record.

With those averages in mind, there would almost have to be severe heat waves thrown in at times, so the all-time daily records for each month may come under attack as well. Times to look for the hottest weather, mid-June, late June, long stretches of July and first half of August. August may then become a case of hanging on for a record as it will probably turn a good deal cooler around the 25th.

Expect also some heavy to severe storms with some evidence of a weekly cycle peaking around Saturdays early, Sundays later on in the summer, as well as every 13.6 days from today and Friday, in two-day clusters, superimposed on this cycle at first then moving a little ahead of it through August (so back towards Thursday-Friday). These two slowly separating cycles of activity will run more like 15-13 days than twice 13.6, so the next peak comes around 15-16 June.

This severe weather analysis also applies to the central US and prairies of southern Canada, so if anyone is really thinking of a return visit, I would advise having 13-16 June in the mix, heading for Nebraska, SK-MB in Canada, the Dakotas and Minnesota in that case, with a major severe weather outbreak moving slowly east through that region.

Edited May 31, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[kold weather]

Certainly a hot summer you've got there Roger, it wouldn't just be a record breaking summer, but it would be exactly 0.6C above 1976 and more then 1C above the summer of 06!!!!

It wouldn't just beat the record, it would destroy it when it comes to seasonal temps!

Saying all that I'm not going for a cool summer by any means, just my summer forecast is a slightly toned down version, though intresting idea about August, I tend to agree though I won't dare go into any detail at this range.

In terms of hea tin June and July, I suspect rather then long drawn out heatwaves we'll have short and sharp, esp so in July with upper lows moving from the Azores firstly introducing the 2-3 day heatwave followed by the thundery breakdown, the actual temp regime may be close to August 2004 though not uite as wet.

[Anti-Mild]

I reckon that this summer will come in around 0.5c above the 71-00 average - still an OK summer but given what we've been used to it'll feel like a pretty poor one.

I predict that we will have the coolest summer since 2002, with some pretty unsettled weather in June and some nice hot stuff in July, but nowhere near as hot as last year with a high of less than 34c.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't have much of an idea about July and August, but agree with Ian Brown's seasonal forecast that July is more likely to be warm/settled/sunny than August, with a mean temperature 1.0-1.5C above the 1971-2000 average.

I expect June to be warm with near average rainfall and sunshine.

[Rustynailer]

I have a feeling that this Summer will be warm but not hot much, the main thing will be too much rain.

Its been on my mind for a while, I just don't think we are in for another scorcher. I cannot explain why as its just a feeling, all logic tells me its going to be hot with a draught again, like last year only more so

I must point out that Oak was well before Ash around here, me being a woodsman I know that this means draught by tradition, but still I think just warm and wet.....

Regards,

Russ.

Edited May 31, 2007 by Rustynailer

[Bottesford]

Well Met Office's updated forecast goes for above average with only 1 in 6 chance of beating 2003 or 2006 for heat.

Overall, warm but not as hot with driest weather in the SE. Normal 'modern' summer?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2007/index.html

[Gavin P]

Summer Forecast from me is as follows (Its very vague, but I don't feel confident to go into any detail)

JUNE:

A very warm and thundery month. High pressure frequently to the east and low pressure to the west. A lot of southerly plumes and thundery periods.

JULY:

A wet and cool first half, with high pressure migrating into the Atlantic leaving slow moving low pressure over the the UK. Much hotter in the second half with high pressure coming back. Probably thundery and cooler by the end of the month. Temps finishing up a little above average.

AUGUST:

This is the month thats causing the most problems. Generally I think we'll have a pretty zonal month, with a west to east flow. I think England and Wales probably has quite a bit of dry weather, with the Azores High usually close by. Scotland and Ireland has a very wet month, with frequent bands of rain and strong winds coming in from the Atlantic. I would say theres a small, but significant risk of the Azores High being much weaker and then all areas will have a very wet month with low pressure really dominating. If its option one, temps will be a little above average in the south and below average in the north. If its option two, temps may be near or below average for all.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Righteo,

Here i am back and refreshed ready to give you another forecast. Now firstly what was the weather like back in May? I remember as pleasant first halve interveined with showers but I wasn’t here for the second halve so please let me know what the weather was like so I can evaluate my May forecast. Onto the May forecast and I am generally happy with my forecast but not as happy as i would have liked to be as the previous two months forecast where very good but my CET forecast for May was some 2 degrees to high so I am not happy on that matter. So, hopefully I can redeem myself this month. So with May behind us now lets get onto the forecast;

CET Prediction; 15.8

Precipitation Forecast; North - 95 %< - <150% (higher than 95% and Lower than 150%)

South - 75 %< - <120% (Higher than 75% and lower than 120%)

Sunshine Forecast; AVERAGE

General Pattern;

I am looking at the AO at the moment to forecast for this month, in understanding the AO visit my file beneath called 'UNDERSTANDING THE AO' to find out more, and it is directing me to believe that at first we will see a moderate negative in the first week returning to a weak negative or neutral phase mid-month. This often then means that the UK will see some very sunny/drier weather especially to start. But as the strength increases I am confident we may see times of stormy weather which may increase into later June. Still very warm and daytime highs commonly reaching the high teens, especially to start. So basically a nice month all round but the odd day where the weather may turn for the worse.

Heat Periods; none to be warned of, but definitely a pleasant month.

Many Thanks and I hope this forecast has offered you some advice on what to expect over the coming month.

SNOW-MAN2006

Understanding_the_AO.doc

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Based on certain cyclical factors I think this summer will not be anywhere near a record breaker and indeed the overall set up pretty different to last year. I think there will be different positioning of HP cells producing periods of warm to very warm weather just as the approaching period is being shown on the models but no major heatwave and no record heat. I think a period will occur where a Scandi trough is responsible for unsettled conditions possible mid June and mainly in August. This is when I think La Nina will be in play and will lead us to a wet end of summer and a wet autumn...totally different to our expected Indian summer scenario.

June

The first half of June will be dry and fairly warm the 2nd-12th being main good period. Although warmer weather may arrive in the first few days, temperatures will cool again as we approach the mid month. I think a period of unsettled squally thundery shower activity is likely around mid month for a week but the expected upward change to summer temperatures won't be felt until about June 21st onwards. So overall slightly warmer than average but no scorcher but with some hefty downpours.

July

This will be the sunniest and warmest month. The warm up in late June will carry through into July with a breakdown period around the second week of the thundery activity although I think it will be shortlived as HP resets itself. I think a prolonged period of settled and very warm weather will then prevail latter half of July into early August. Above average and warmest month, drier than average

August

This is when I think La Nina will be evident and a breakdown to unsettled and [relatively] cool conditions. This for me will lead us into a wet autumn and bring summer to an early end....this is probably in comparence to recent long hot summers when I say an end to summer so I anticipate a more [good old British summer]. Close to average and wetter than normal.

BFTP

Someone mentioned the netweather summer forecast....why can't I find it?

Edited June 2, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[summer blizzard]

I'm still happy with my official July and August predictions of 17C and 17.2C.

[Weather-history]

An article in the Times reckons we could be in for a really wet summer.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle2013348.ece

[I remember Atlantic 252]

complete guess low pressure dominated zonal for the whole of july, no hot spells and no 25oC away from the SE, will rain a lot, i am thinking autumn 2007 has arrived early around 24th june

[Iceberg]

Re 2007 summer and beyond.

CFS has a pretty isn't going for a particularly fantastic Summer. (unfortunately !).

[yamkin]

An article in the Times reckons we could be in for a really wet summer.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle2013348.ece

Mr Data, Following this article, after scientists in Australia released particles into the atmosphere to enhance rain clouds due to their excessive drought conditions, they were successful making it rain, but things got out of control with severe storms and torrential rain causing flooding.

This seems to have effected the weather patterns, hence the Northern part of Europe experiencing sustained rain and the Southern part of Europe experiencing extreme high temperatures.

Edited July 2, 2007 by yamkin

[damianslaw]

This summer is beginning to have the same effect that a mild wet winter has on those looking for more 'seasonal' conditions i.e. we are beginning to get excited at even the mere chance of just one fine day under a temporary ridge, much like many of us feel about the chances of a similiar but cold dry day in winter.

However, strangely enough provided we can gather at least 1 week this summer of good fine warm conditions I am quite happy for the unsettled conditions to remain, it makes a change from recent summers of heatwave and drought conditions something that we are told we will have to get used to in the future, so why not at least make the most of an unsettled wet summer now as we may not if the global warmers believe see many comparable to which in the future.

[Rustynailer]

This rainy period were having, reminds me of the floods on the Continent in summer, that happen from time to time. I presume we are having out turn. More systems like this one thats currently sitting over central England and Wales are theoretically passable.

IMO nature does things in waves. Any thoughts?

Oh yes, I predicted this on 31 May, using a non scientific method(on page 4 of this thread), my feelings. Was I just lucky or is there a relevance with peoples feelings and instincts in all of this. I absolutely love the science b/w and am not trying to slag that off one iota :lol:

Russ(swollen headed smiley!)

Edited July 20, 2007 by Rustynailer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

im not gonna see a 25C this month like aug last year

as a guess aug 07 will be dominated by low pressure there will be no 25oC or higher away from the SE, it will be the coolest and rainiest month of this summer