The Ongoing Warmth in the UK

[Stu_London]

Last autumn was dominated by tropical maritime air rather than tropical continental air. The first half of September was mostly tropical continental as the source of the air was from the Mediterranean, whereas from mid September onwards it was tropical maritime as the air was mainly from SW'lies originating from the sub tropical Atlantic.

Still pretty close tp the warmest origin possible - esp for the second half of autumn

[Bottesford]

No matter what the causes are and how very worrying it is - I'm finding it hard to wish away these changes. I know GW is a big problem and god knows what the next stage will be here in the UK but despite this - this April has been just fantastic. Summers are getting longer & more reliable and, as a summer lover, find it hard to want a return to some of the dreadful summers of the 80s I remember as a kid. Rain, rain, rain!

There's more & more time to enjoy the outdoors and people are generally happier.

Winters are milder which is 'easier' to cope with (less disruption, frozen pipes, expensive heating, etc.) although I think most people (def me) will really miss snow. Milder winters are more practical but extremely dull.

I'm certainly worried as to whats going on with the planet and how we're responsible but despite this I find it hard to wish it to be cooler at the moment. Maybe by August after 3 months of searing heat I'll change my mind but for now - its just lovely.

[SP1986]

I'm certainly not including myself in the 'cry for winter' stuff. Currently it's 16C in a relatively (should be) cool airmass, and the wind feels warm. I'm very happy with a warming climate, as long as nature can re adjust itself. We're not talking about a sub-tropical climate here afterall. There is still scope for snow events etc!

[The PIT]

I'm certainly not including myself in the 'cry for winter' stuff. Currently it's 16C in a relatively (should be) cool airmass, and the wind feels warm. I'm very happy with a warming climate, as long as nature can re adjust itself. We're not talking about a sub-tropical climate here afterall. There is still scope for snow events etc!

Wait for stage four

[Weather-history]

What worries me is the lack of variation in the weather. Mild, mild, mild and mild. Warmth is fine up to a point but lets have some variety. You take snow out of the process and the British climate becomes duller.

Edited April 25, 2007 by Mr_Data

[snowray]

I remember some of those dreadful 80s summers very well. Around 85 I set up a kiosk selling ice cream and all it did was rain, the following year was just as bad and I ended up closing down having made hardly any money, me and my bright ideas....

I still believe that we could get heavy snow fall though in Milder winters, seems that a lot of places around the world have had some very heavy falls in the last couple of years in the colder snaps that have been around due to the higher temp gradient I expect. North America this year, Japan this and last year, many parts of Central and Southern Europe were virtually snowbound in the Winter of 05/06, places like Northern Italy and the South of France. Just need a little bit of luck, well in the UK a whole lot of luck but hey....with weather paterns all over the place I'd say expect the unexpected.

Edited April 25, 2007 by snowray

[mk13]

What if man is responsible for the type pf weather the UK/Europe is experiencing now? When the planet warms it may reach critical stages that change weather pattern/setups. Example, in the UK once the mean annual temperature reaches 10C and sustained year on, this might trigger a set of advents that change weather patterns slightly and we get stuck in a self replicating mode, as it's self replicating it add more and more heat into the equation once the mean temperature nears 11C, changes happen again reinforcing the replication.

C4, Britain's drowned world - Time team special, were looking for neolithic remains under the north sea (as this was once land connecting the UK to Europe).

A scientist spoke about how the mean temperature of Europe rose by 7C in just 15 years, flooding the bridge between the UK and Europe! I am not for one moment suggesting that this is going to happen now, but it does illustrate how at times in the past history of the earth's climate, sudden violent changes can occur.

The worrying aspect of this warming trend is how will this affect nature and the wildlife?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Re the points on warmth, it is true that generally, the increased warmth in our climate has been associated with increased sunshine. However, the increased sunshine has been caused by changes in synoptics. More high pressure in spring, summer and autumn, and more mobile, wet but sunny westerlies in winter.

It is far from clear that as the global climate warms up, synoptics will continue to change to favour more and more sunshine.

Take summers in the North East for example. We certainly saw a dramatic increase in summer sunshine into the warm 1990s, with only summer 1998 producing below average sunshine at Durham between 1988 and 1999 inclusive; in particular the summers (and years) of 1989 and 1995 both broke many sunshine records. However, the 2000s have since seen a decline back towards the 1980s values, with summers 2000-02 and 2004 all rather below the long-term average. In the meantime, the Northern Hemisphere has continued to warm up.

I was fine with global warming in the 1990s; we had a succession of reasonably variable springs, fine summers, and though the winters were mild, there were some fairly snowy ones (1990/91, 1993/94, 1995/96, also 1996/97 in places). But:

What worries me is the lack of variation in the weather. Mild, mild, mild and mild. Warmth is fine up to a point but lets have some variety. You take snow out of the process and the British climate becomes duller.

My sentiments exactly.

[North-Easterly Blast]

By variable springs in the 1990s the spring of 1995 was a great example. Although not particularly cold overall, that spring featured frequent northerly outbreaks in April and May and even cold polar maritime zonality in March. Switch Arounds, as Kevin (Mr Data) describes them, where there is a change from spring warmth to winter cold in a few days, featured on many occasions that spring, and it is true to say that those synoptics and the Switch Around scenario are another type of weather that has dissappeared in recent years.

It does create interest some of the time, but only so far, to have months recording above or well above average temperatures, but it is boring to death month after month. I have to say that I am sick to death of the current weather pattern we are in now, high pressure glued to the east of the UK giving dry and unseasonably warm weather that is at times more like the summer months. I just find it so difficult to live without more variety than this. It is spring, let's have some switch around scenarios which give great interest weatherwise.

Yes, the 1990s did still have some variety weatherwise to get excited about, there was a pretty cold winter in 1995-96, and a severe Feb 1991, and some pretty good varied springs such as 1995, a not really cold winter overall in 1993-94 that still featured some cold snowy spells.

Whereas this decade, the 2000s, just seems the most boring decade to write about weatherwise.

Another month of interest is April 1998, which featured heavy rains and floods, then an Easter cold spell with frosts and snow in many areas. April 1999, although quite warm overall, still managed a cold northerly outbreak with frosts and snow in places mid-month. May 1997 is another varied month that featured a heatwave at the start with 25*C in many areas then a cold northerly outbreak with even snow in some areas.

Whereas, most of the springs this decade have had almost nothing of interest to write about or look forward to, just almost weather dead is the way I would describe them, as have most years all the year round much of the time.

[PersianPaladin]

This millenium decade has been pretty forgettable indeed. The 90s were salvaged by an excellent Feb 91 and the year 95/96 as a whole with the best winter we have seen since . Not too much else, but better than nothing.

However this decade has been worse, with only some coldish weather in winter 00/01 and a two moderately reasonable cold spells in Feb and Dec 05 respectively. The first in Feb for length of the spell and several (shortlived on the ground) snowfalls. The second one in the Dec for being relatively potent and producing good accumulations of snow -albeit far too brief at just three days.

Because at the new millenium, we are at the end of history imo.

[Bottesford]

Still - how much worse would it be if it was global cooling instead of warming? A steady cooling of the planet bringing on a steady ice age.

Shortened growing seasons, long freezing winters making large areas almost uninhabitable, food shortages. And more importantly - it'd be horrible and cold all the time.

[skifreak]

And more importantly - it'd be horrible and cold all the time.

Awsome, nearly 4000ft of vertical descent at Nevis Range, doing laps of the access Gondola on a winter powder day, then bashing the spring snow bumps in Goose Gully in August! Sweet!

Edited April 25, 2007 by skifreak

[Bottesford]

Aye a gale force NEly and heavy snow would be great! For me, gimme severe but short (2-3months) winter and a hot summer (3 months) with pleasentness inbetween.

[osmposm]

Bizzare...would be interested to hear when bluebells flower this year. I recall that I saw bluebells in flower in the hills above Mallaig in the last week of June 1994

I generally try and avoid quoting flowering dates in central-ish London, ACB, as the microclimate is so mild (I have seen mediterranean Oleanders grown successfully outside for at least 25 years), but my bluebells have been out for ages - indeed they are well past their best. So this year they were at their peak here at least a week before the end of April! And there are lilacs in full bloom everywhere, too: so much for "Lilac Time". I have never seen anything like it before.

And then there are those wonderful harbingers of summer, the Swifts, whose arrival date I have recorded almost every year since 1990. They always appear here in a one-week period - 29th April the earliest (2005), 6th May the latest (2000). This year I first saw (and heard) them hurtling overhead on the 22nd, a full week before they normally come in even an early year. Mind you, their delicious, excited screams are now often drowned out by the screeches of the exploding numbers of (alien) ring-necked parakeets, a species that even last year was only an occasional visitor to my trees, but is now around all the time, and in quantity. I cannot but think that the mild winters are accelerating their breeding success.

So, yes: I do actually think we have moved semi-permanently - at least for my lifetime, that is - into a new phase of much milder climate. Like others on here, I am just glad that I am old enough to have experienced some wintry humdingers in the 60s, 70s & 80s (and '91), and a normality that was substantially cooler. I earnestly hope that it doesn't have another upwards lurch in store for us.

A final bit of anecdotal something-or-other that I found a few days ago and wanted to share. In the 1906 sale catalogue for Gt Lodge Farm at Bardfield in Essex, the auctioneers wrote: "The beauty of the garden is enhanced by a moat or fish pond about 285 ft long by 49 ft wide, affording angling for the summer and capital skating in winter". Hard to believe that just 100 years ago that was a sensible selling-point for a lake in South East England - and the previous 10 years had not had unusually cold winters either, judging from the CET record.

Edited April 25, 2007 by osmposm

[acbrixton]

Hello Osmposm: interesting findings (esp. liked the 1906 catalogue...).

Yes we do enjoy a warm microclimate esp. re night time minima giving an extended growing season. I doubt that we have had a severe frost (defined as -5 or below) since early 2001. Dahlias flower into November in the absence of frost and I no longer bother to lift store and replant them (just some mulch). Here in Brixton the first climbing roses were in flower before the end of the first week of April (and not just odd rogue flowers either). One unfortunate effect of the summer like weather in London this month is that spring bulbs flower only briefly before succumbing to the heat.

It cannot be too long before the vineyards of south east England start to produce serious red wine (it can be done in the mid to upper Loire valley...).

Regards

ACB

[Thundersquall]

This year could well be yet another record warm one, as I notice no months so far

this year have been colder than average (remember last March 2006?)

April is already an astonishing 3.22C above average with a very high average of 11.32C.

With this next bout of warm weather, could we even push 12C average before the month is out?

Edited April 25, 2007 by Thundersquall

[Matty M]

It's going to be just fine just fine..

We'll just all fly off to that new planet that they found!

[acbrixton]

This year could well be yet another record warm one, as I notice no months so far

this year have been colder than average (remember last March 2006?)

April is already an astonishing 3.22C above average with a very high average of 11.32C.

With this next bout of warm weather, could we even push 12C average before the month is out?

A quick back of an envelope calculation: we would need a CET of 15.5 for the last 5 days to get to 12.0, e.g. average minima of 10c and average maxima of 21c. Just possible but unlikely!

Regards

ACB

[Calrissian]

It's going to be just fine just fine..

We'll just all fly off to that new planet that they found!

Its a bigger planet, plenty of room. Doubtless though, the gravity will squish you down to a somewhat shorter height.

---

Back on topic...the warmth..with go go.

Calrissian: stating the obvious

[Gavin P]

"The 90s were salvaged by an excellent Feb 91 and the year 95/96 as a whole with the best winter we have seen since . Not too much else, but better than nothing."

Don't forget 1993. 5 consecutive months (July to November) below average. I remember thinking at the time what an awful month July 1993 was, but I would LOVE to see a July like it now, just to see if we could still see one. Likewise September. Infact I would love to see a September like 1993 more than a July, because of how bizzarely warm September has become in recent years.

Its certainly hard to imagine a run of 5 cesecutive below average months now. Its hard to imagine 1 below average month, really.

Edited April 25, 2007 by Gavin P

[Northernlights]

The rapid early leafing up of all the deciduous trees up here is the amazing result of April 2007"s weather Over the years I have kept old dated photos from springtime. Our horsechestnut is in full leaf and flowering something which did not happen till the end of May 40 years ago and our old ash tree is coming into leaf something which it never did till early June 40 years ago . It would retain green leaves until well into November then in spite of any frost but today seems to drop its leaves earlier perhaps trying to keep to the same length of time of leaf retention as in the past in the face of a warming climate and earlier spring growth and more droght prone summers as we live in a low rainfall area.

[Thundery wintry showers]

"The 90s were salvaged by an excellent Feb 91 and the year 95/96 as a whole with the best winter we have seen since . Not too much else, but better than nothing."

Don't forget 1993. 5 consecutive months (July to November) below average. I remember thinking at the time what an awful month July 1993 was, but I would LOVE to see a July like it now, just to see if we could still see one. Likewise September. Infact I would love to see a September like 1993 more than a July, because of how bizzarely warm September has become in recent years.

Its certainly hard to imagine a run of 5 cesecutive below average months now. Its hard to imagine 1 below average month, really.

Locally it went even further than that; at Stornoway, between July 1993 and June 1994 inclusive, only January 1994 failed to produce a below average mean temperature.

[Stratos Ferric]

The rapid early leafing up of all the deciduous trees up here is the amazing result of April 2007"s weather Over the years I have kept old dated photos from springtime. Our horsechestnut is in full leaf and flowering something which did not happen till the end of May 40 years ago and our old ash tree is coming into leaf something which it never did till early June 40 years ago . It would retain green leaves until well into November then in spite of any frost but today seems to drop its leaves earlier perhaps trying to keep to the same length of time of leaf retention as in the past in the face of a warming climate and earlier spring growth and more droght prone summers as we live in a low rainfall area.

I have to say I've been struck by the same thing. Leaves appear to have come from nowhere. Also agree re the leaf drop, and like you I'd attribute it to drought / dry summers causing stress.

...but my bluebells have been out for ages - indeed they are well past their best. So this year they were at their peak here at least a week before the end of April! And there are lilacs in full bloom everywhere, too: so much for "Lilac Time". I have never seen anything like it before.

...

A final bit of anecdotal something-or-other that I found a few days ago and wanted to share. In the 1906 sale catalogue for Gt Lodge Farm at Bardfield in Essex, the auctioneers wrote: "The beauty of the garden is enhanced by a moat or fish pond about 285 ft long by 49 ft wide, affording angling for the summer and capital skating in winter". Hard to believe that just 100 years ago that was a sensible selling-point for a lake in South East England - and the previous 10 years had not had unusually cold winters either, judging from the CET record.

Bluebells not out yet in the north, and barely even showing in my garden, though here in hertford my sister's look like they've been out for ages. I agree re other flowers though. My grape hyacinth are out and dying - and we're barely past mid April.

I like the estate agent's blurb. Just shows that even back then they were creative regarding the upside of any feature, however spurious.

What worries me is the lack of variation in the weather. Mild, mild, mild and mild. Warmth is fine up to a point but lets have some variety. You take snow out of the process and the British climate becomes duller.

Oh come on Mr D. It's mild, very mild, very warm, then very mild again. You can't call that "not varied". To borrow from "Monty Python", don't you have anything without any mild in?

[noggin]

Blimey, what a gloomy and doomy thread this is. The climate varies. It always has done. It is all this constant dissecting of every little detail that is sowing the seeds of panic that seem to be present here. What also helps/hinders things is the internet because it allows the "panic" to spread all over the World.

Well, that's how it looks to me. There is always something that is going to destroy mankind. When I was little, the panic was about nuclear war. Now it is about the climate. What will it be when the climate panic is over, I wonder?

As sure as eggs is eggs, climate panic will be replaced by something else.

[Gray-Wolf]

Bluebells not out yet in the north, and barely even showing in my garden, though here in hertford my sister's look like they've been out for ages. I agree re other flowers though. My grape hyacinth are out and dying - and we're barely past mid April.

I'm sure we are higher than you in parts (Calder Valley, we are a measly 200m ASL) but our bluebells have been flowering for well over a week and some of the woodlands are on their way to finishing! Do you live in a deep dark cave there?

I would say that if May ends up cooler and damper than April (similar to last years May) then we may be looking at a new 'summer synoptic' taking over and that would be dire for June ,July and this year August (El-Nino blip last year). So ,for me ,it all hinges on Mays weather (our 2 week 'monsoon come early).

Edited April 26, 2007 by Gray-Wolf