Met Office winter NAO forecast...

[summer blizzard]

Is that really a lower then average value? Or just normal?

That is a very negative value.

[ribster]

That is a very negative value.

Excuse my ignorance, but I assume that this is a good thing, in that it will be one piece in the puzzle of helping us to a better winter (i.e., potentially cold and snowy?)

Thanks, rib.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Excuse my ignorance, but I assume that this is a good thing, in that it will be one piece in the puzzle of helping us to a better winter (i.e., potentially cold and snowy?)

Thanks, rib.

One piece in the puzzle...correct, and a decent Piece too. I agree with IB that an Indian Summer this year is not on the cards anD indeed I think [problematically] that a wet autumn beckons...after a wet summer!!!!

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

One piece in the puzzle...correct, and a decent Piece too. I agree with IB that an Indian Summer this year is not on the cards anD indeed I think [problematically] that a wet autumn beckons...after a wet summer!!!!

BFTP

While i agree that we wont be seeing an 'Indian Summer' this year, i actually expect the first half of Autumn to be quite dry, but also to record below average temperatures, mainly due to low minima.

[Don]

One piece in the puzzle...correct, and a decent Piece too. I agree with IB that an Indian Summer this year is not on the cards anD indeed I think [problematically] that a wet autumn beckons...after a wet summer!!!!

BFTP

I sincerely hope that we get a cool and wet September this year, although it probably won't be any cooler than average, but that would be much better compared to what we got last year. IMO this would be another good piece of the puzzle.

To be honest, I'm quite enjoying this wetter Summer so far, it makes a change! As long as it doesn't happen every year, I am missing those long warm dry evenings I have to say.

Edited July 3, 2007 by Don

[damianslaw]

I sincerely hope that we get a cool and wet September this year, although it probably won't be any cooler than average, but that would be much better compared to what we got last year. IMO this would be another good piece of the puzzle.

To be honest, I'm quite enjoying this wetter Summer so far, it makes a change! As long as it doesn't happen every year, I am missing those long warm dry evenings I have to say.

Yes lets have a cool wet september for a change I can't remember the last time we have had one of these, then I would like a sunny frosty october followed by a cold november. I feel like it is the end of august at the moment and we are looking into autumn not early July..

[Don]

Yes lets have a cool wet september for a change I can't remember the last time we have had one of these, then I would like a sunny frosty october followed by a cold november. I feel like it is the end of august at the moment and we are looking into autumn not early July..

September 2001 had a CET of 13.4C and was a fairly wet month if I remember correctly, so quite a while. However, look at the Winter that followed that

[Gavin P]

If the Met forecast an NAO value of -1 to -1.5, that really would be a turn up for the books.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

While i agree that we wont be seeing an 'Indian Summer' this year, i actually expect the first half of Autumn to be quite dry, but also to record below average temperatures, mainly due to low minima.

Good, can't abide this mild nonsense in the autumn. Halloween/Bonfire night etc need to be cold, not this rubbish 2-3c malarkey that we've had in the last 4-5 yrs.

In my day......etc etc....*yawn*

[sundog]

I have a good feeling about this years autumn/winter season.I have a feeling we could be in for quite a cold one at least by modern standards. One good thing aswell is at least there will be no el nino to contend with this year. i agree with some who said we are unlikely to get an indian summer this year.

[noggin]

Is the NAO forecast the same as the Winter forecast or is it just one part of the jigsaw used to try and forecast the Winter?

If it is the latter, when would the MetO start to give an indication of where our Winter might be heading?

[Guest Viking141]

Just spoken to the METO, they expect to release this forecast either next week or the week after.

[Gavin P]

No hints about what they will say, I suppose?

[Guest Viking141]

No hints about what they will say, I suppose?

Er, no!!

[Gavin P]

Not long to wait anyway.

[kold weather]

Another week to wait then it seems, ah well i had hoped it was this week but ah well. As you say Gavin if its as negative as a few round here think then we could well have a decent witner overall, the type of NAO that SB forecasts is up there with the true greats such as 62-63.

[noggin]

Just spoken to the METO, they expect to release this forecast either next week or the week after.

I am much obliged, Viking!

Between the 9th and 20th July, then.

Getting quite exciting, isn't it......I know, I'm a saddo! :blink:

[swfc]

Having read this thread and getting quite confused i could do with a bit of help. Not really sure what the nao is caused by and what the effect it has on the weather in generall.I know it promotes a less mobile atlantic and moves towards colder weather but how and why.Sorry if posted in wrong section.

Edited July 6, 2007 by swfc

[kold weather]

The SSTa config doesn't get any better right now for a -ve NAO for this winter, according to Chuck over on easternwxus it would seemingly rank easily as one of the most -ve NAO winters nearly on par with 62-63, doesn't mean same winter of course but a very -ve NAO combined with the easterly QBO helping northern blocking and a weak La Nina, looks similar to 95-96 winter but the easterly QBO could mean possibly even more northern blocking.

[TEITS]

Having read this thread and getting quite confused i could do with a bit of help. Not really sure what the nao is caused by and what the effect it has on the weather in generall.I know it promotes a less mobile atlantic and moves towards colder weather but how and why.Sorry if posted in wrong section.

Bascially the NAO is measured by the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. For instance a positive NAO is where pressure is high in the azores and low around iceland. A negative NAO is the complete opposite hence the chances of colder weather due to the HP to our N.

Let's be clear though the NAO doesn't drive the weather and like I say the state of it is caused by the pressure systems. What some members are saying on this thread is the SST pattern looks favourable for a negative NAO and the SST's are one of the factors that are used to predict the NAO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Changes seem to be going on and at a fast rate too. That cold band in the central north Atlantic is narrowing and the warmth below Greenland expanding fast. The May to Jul SST seems in my limited ability undoubtedly calls for a -ve NAO but the changes going on if continued I don' like.

BFTP

[cheeky_monkey]

The SSTa config doesn't get any better right now for a -ve NAO for this winter, according to Chuck over on easternwxus it would seemingly rank easily as one of the most -ve NAO winters nearly on par with 62-63, doesn't mean same winter of course but a very -ve NAO combined with the easterly QBO helping northern blocking and a weak La Nina, looks similar to 95-96 winter but the easterly QBO could mean possibly even more northern blocking.

winter 95-96 was no great shakes!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

winter 95-96 was no great shakes!!!

Average CET for Dec is 5.1, Jan 4.2 and Feb 4.2. 95/96 was 2.3, 4.3 and 2.5. So Dec and Feb were cold months and overall a cold winter....I'd certainly put it in the Decent/Res[pected bracket.

BFTP

[cheeky_monkey]

Average CET for Dec is 5.1, Jan 4.2 and Feb 4.2. 95/96 was 2.3, 4.3 and 2.5. So Dec and Feb were cold months and overall a cold winter....I'd certainly put it in the Decent/Res[pected bracket.

BFTP

i wouldnt! :lol:

[Stu_London]

i wouldnt! :lol:

It wasn't all that good in the south of the country with no snow at all in london, although it was very cold around the christmas and new year.

The midlands northwards had much more snow and Shetland had more snow than 1947 and 1963 if I am not mistaken