Met Office winter NAO forecast...

[Cymru]

Am I the only one on here who is wishing for a mild, dry and sunny winter? After all the rain we've had I feel we deserve a few months of dry weather. I like snow but not if it's Atlantic driven which means wet, sloppy snow. I'd be willing to give up all snow for a dry winter this year.

[eddie]

Am I the only one on here who is wishing for a mild, dry and sunny winter? After all the rain we've had I feel we deserve a few months of dry weather. I like snow but not if it's Atlantic driven which means wet, sloppy snow. I'd be willing to give up all snow for a dry winter this year.

Mild, dry and sunny is quite a tall order in winter. I would settle for dry.

[Don]

winter 95-96 was no great shakes!!! :lol:

No, it wasn't any great shakes in my area either. We barely got a decent covering of snow all Winter. Still pretty damn cold though, especially going by todays standards!

[Snowyowl9]

Am I the only one on here who is wishing for a mild, dry and sunny winter? After all the rain we've had I feel we deserve a few months of dry weather. I like snow but not if it's Atlantic driven which means wet, sloppy snow. I'd be willing to give up all snow for a dry winter this year.

I certainly agree about not wanting an atlantic wet winter as last year was no exception it`s the last thing I want to see as it dragged on and on, although we did get a huge amount of snow at one time but just for 3 days,as for a mild ,dry sunny winter it`s better but no thanks a cold mainly dry winter with more snow than rain like 2 years ago oh yes.

I`d like to see summer arriving firstly though. then a cool/cold autumn not like last year.

[skifreak]

Hell. I'll happily take a 95/96 winter, esp with we get another Xmas Eve 95 Polar Low!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hell. I'll happily take a 95/96 winter, esp with we get another Xmas Eve 95 Polar Low!

Just fr you Skifreak

Perfection

BFTP

[Mark Bayley]

Heard that the met-office winter NAO forecast will be out on Thursday. Can anyone confirm this?

[summer blizzard]

Heard that the met-office winter NAO forecast will be out on Thursday. Can anyone confirm this?

I'll confirm it for you in around 24 hours.

[Mark Bayley]

Ok

Edited July 11, 2007 by mark bayley

[SMU]

Afternoon All-

Here is the latest unysis SST anomaly chart-

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

that is a corker for the atlantic tripole....

Also the Met office use the coastal waters around newfoundland to assert the mode of the NAO-

I would hazard a guess that the statistical probability of a negative NAO this Winter is high & I expect to see this mentioned in their outlook when it updates this week-

S

[Michael Winston]

Afternoon All-

Here is the latest unysis SST anomaly chart-

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

that is a corker for the atlantic tripole....

Also the Met office use the coastal waters around newfoundland to assert the mode of the NAO-

I would hazard a guess that the statistical probability of a negative NAO this Winter is high & I expect to see this mentioned in their outlook when it updates this week-

S

That's very good news. Thanks Steve,

Kind regards,

Mike.

[SMU]

4000 posts ! :lol:

Lets hope it is not overridden by the 'usual' suspects

Tamara

WOW I didnt even see that!!!

Im glad my 4000th was one of at least a modicum of hope for the forth coming winter......

S

Cheers Mike

Edited July 11, 2007 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Hi Steve, thats one of the best tripoles I think I've seen tohugh I'd have prefered it to have turned up in late summer rather now as it could change quite quickly if hurricanes decide to take that route up in the higher lattiudes...the one good piece of news is that the Azores high has been rather mighty thanks to the strong jet. I'd say they will go for a reasonably strong -ve NAO, tohugh a caveat will no doubt be added about the stat eof La nina in the pacific.

[Don]

Just fr you Skifreak

Perfection

BFTP

Ah, those were the days! Not that we got much in the way of snow in down in Surrey, but a nice cold traditional Christmas period nevertheless.

:lol:

[Don]

I believe the Met Office issued their first Winter 2006/07 forecast on July 10th last year, so it is due this week. Fingers crossed that it makes a better reading than last years, although their forecast wasn't as bad as the actual Winter turned out to be (if you like cold weather of course).

An 'average' Winter this year would be something. My confidence is very low about getting anything below average :lol:

[Michael Winston]

WOW I didnt even see that!!!

Im glad my 4000th was one of at least a modicum of hope for the forth coming winter......

S

Cheers Mike

Whoops! :lol: Missed that! Thanks, Tamara. Sorry Steve. Here's to the next 4000!

Kind regards,

Mike.

[Gavin P]

I can confirm its going to be issued tomorrow. I emailed them on Monday and they replied telling me it would be issued on July 12th.

I agree with Steve that the Atlantic SST pattern is perfectly set-up for a negative NAO and has been getting better and better since April. May was had a decent -NAO pattern, and this will lead the Met to issue a -NAO call for the winter of 2007/2008, IMO.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Hi Mike

There is a thread open in the lounge :lol:

Lets hope that things stay on course through the rest of the summer and autumn. We all have 'been here' before and there is time for things to change as we know !

Tamara

hi tamara long time no see. nice to see talk of the up and coming winter starting early, although i believe so it should with things that happen now possibly being so important to what happens later. I'm not to sure why everybody goes for a majour negative neo thinking thats a good thing. We all know most people want snow and a negative neo would point to a very dry season over northern europe and the uk. albeit cold. I would settle for a netutal neo to be honest which would in turn give us a much more even chance of getting majour cold spells . More to it than that of course but wouldnt want southern europe stealing all our snow again.

regards

Chris

[Guest Viking141]

I can confirm its going to be issued tomorrow. I emailed them on Monday and they replied telling me it would be issued on July 12th.

I agree with Steve that the Atlantic SST pattern is perfectly set-up for a negative NAO and has been getting better and better since April. May was had a decent -NAO pattern, and this will lead the Met to issue a -NAO call for the winter of 2007/2008, IMO.

Excellent, look forward to that.

:lol:

[tinybill]

I can confirm its going to be issued tomorrow. I emailed them on Monday and they replied telling me it would be issued on July 12th.

I agree with Steve that the Atlantic SST pattern is perfectly set-up for a negative NAO and has been getting better and better since April. May was had a decent -NAO pattern, and this will lead the Met to issue a -NAO call for the winter of 2007/2008, IMO.

I can’t wait let’s hope they bring good news loll temp in the 90s sunbathing in the garden, sorry just dreaming thought I was in Australia,!!! Let’s hope for a very cold winter well it can’t be any worse than this summer can it

[kold weather]

Not sure I can agree with that at all really Chris, if you have a very -ve NAO then that generally implies a lot of northerly airflows and easterlies which would no doubt eventually have some sort of major disturbance and a -ve NAO also indicates a southerly jet. I suppose if you have a very -ve NAO is can keep lows surpressed but even then there will bound to be some sort of set-up that will give plenty of snow, if only by sheer persistance of cold set-ups. Put it this way, its far easier to get shnow if you have loads of cold spells which in broad terms would be the case in a -ve NAO dominated set-up, compared with a neutral set-up. In the end a -ve NAO is far better for chance sof cold then a neutral/positive NAO, I'm sure the stats will back this up as well, its not by chance that nearly all cold winters have -ve NAO.

The SSTA signal is nearly perfect for a -ve NAO however when things come near to perfection there is only one way it can go!!

Once ex-hurricanes come through then it'll ruin that signal somewhat.

Edited July 11, 2007 by kold weather

[Lincs Observation]

evening all

ill pose a senario and see what the reaction is.... ok suppose the Azores high situation was not to change significantly, and therefore experiance another quite hurricane season what does this mean for NAO as we get into late autumn early winter? and not really knowing what a negative NAO means what kind of winter senario do you think that we might get?

LO

just seen Kolds post kind of explains what im asking lol

Edited July 11, 2007 by Luton Observation

[Gavin P]

Kold, although we can probably expect the -NAO signal to fade somewhat over the immediate future, I believe the Met issues these forecasts, believing not that the signal will last for the next 6-9 months, but that it'll re-emerge in 6-9 months. So if we get to September and October and the SST's look to moving in the wrong way, the expectation will be that as we go into winter, the -NAO signal should re-emerge.

Edited July 11, 2007 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

evening all

ill pose a senario and see what the reaction is.... ok suppose the Azores high situation was not to change significantly, and therefore experiance another quite hurricane season what does this mean for NAO as we get into late autumn early winter? and not really knowing what a negative NAO means what kind of winter senario do you think that we might get?

LO

just seen Kolds post kind of explains what im asking lol

Very unsettled but with a few marginal snow events.

A wild punt, but i believe that the NAO value will be -1.3.

[Gavin P]

What you have to remember though, is that if the Atlantic SST set-up we have now, was replicated in winter, the jet stream would be a lot further south than it is now. I mean, the jet stream has generally been further south than it should be, but its summer, so it'll never be *that* far south. But in winter, I believe it would be a lot further south, and so the Azores High would also be a lot weaker and northern blocking, much more stronger.