Met Office winter NAO forecast...

[Big Bear]

I gather from another thread that ice formation on "our side" of the Arctic is much better than this time last year. I imagine that without a heatwave (yet) this Summer our SSTs will be a bit lower than last year, too.

Now to my very simple mind this is looking positive for an increased amount of :lol: this Winter!

In support of this theory I would like to remind people that winter 05/06 (or 06/07 - can't remember which) Japan and parts of the far east at similar latitude had the coldest & certainly the snowiest winter for nearly a century. Arctic ice was more prominent on the opposite side of the globe to us that year, while we bathed in mild rubbish. My point is, who's to say the sypnosis cannot be reversed this year providing the ice build/ pattern continues as it is at present, plunging NW Europe into a deep freeze with record snowfall.

All in the name of speculation of course.

Here we are - it was winter 05/06. A couple of links related to the heavy falls of that winter in Japan:

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4591950.stm

[Sue Bates]

In support of this theory I would like to remind people that winter 05/06 (or 06/07 - can't remember which) Japan and parts of the far east at similar latitude had the coldest & certainly the snowiest winter for nearly a century. Arctic ice was more prominent on the opposite side of the globe to us that year, while we bathed in mild rubbish. My point is, who's to say the sypnosis cannot be reversed this year providing the ice build/ pattern continues as it is at present, plunging NW Europe into a deep freeze with record snowfall.

All in the name of speculation of course.

Here we are - it was winter 05/06. A couple of links related to the heavy falls of that winter in Japan:

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4591950.stm

Hello big bear - I like your photograph! You had better get 'er indoors to knit some thick wooly gloves if we are going to get all that snow! Meanwhile, I am looking at two greenhouses full of green tomatoes, peppers and chillies waiting for some 'B' sun! Sure

ly, there won't be any moisture left to fall as snow later! Kind regards Big Bear so glad you are still about.

[Big Bear]

Hello big bear - I like your photograph! You had better get 'er indoors to knit some thick wooly gloves if we are going to get all that snow! Meanwhile, I am looking at two greenhouses full of green tomatoes, peppers and chillies waiting for some 'B' sun! Sure

ly, there won't be any moisture left to fall as snow later! Kind regards Big Bear so glad you are still about.

Hello Sue and thanks. I don't think we're in for a very warm August but it would be nice to get some more sun - that's for sure!

Since this summer has almost been written off I am prematurely looking forward to winter 07/08, especially with the encouraging early NAO signal.

[summer blizzard]

Goood news, i have just been reading something on TWO, and 80% of below average winters in the past 150 years have occured following a wetter than average average Autumn.

[shuggee]

How's that good news SB? It's not even autumn yet - so how do we know whether it will be wet or not?!

[summer blizzard]

Its good news in that a link has been found.

[kippure]

Its good news in that a link has been found.

Between the two?

Edited August 5, 2007 by kippure

[cheeky_monkey]

yeah but how many milder than average winters have followed a wet autumn?

[summer blizzard]

yeah but how many milder than average winters have followed a wet autumn?

20% of the dataset including Autumn 2006.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Bad news. The SSTs around Britain are heading towards above average again... Same old story again like last year.

Edited August 6, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Guest Viking141]

Quick question, when does this fx get updated? I seem to think about 3rd wk in Sept is that right?

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Can someone delete my post above? I sorry but I mistook this thread for August CET! :o :)

Otherwise ignore me and carry on :o

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Anyone have an idea when the METO NAO forecast/update/review is due. Could be interesting reading.

BFTP

[Gavin P]

Their first official MetO LRF will be released on September 27th.

[Don]

Their first official MetO LRF will be released on September 27th.

Thought it was due around that date. Don't expect it to be any great shakes mind.

Edited September 5, 2007 by Don

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thought it was due around that date. Don't expect it to be any great shakes mind.

All depends IMO re their thinking or rethinking of their La Nina projection. NAO was to be weak signal beacuse they expected moderate to strong La Nina to be in place....that seems to have not happened.

BFTP