Met Office winter NAO forecast...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Every year there are positive signs we could be heading towards a colder winter.

Along much the same lines as the positive signs were of this "Record Breaking, frying eggs on the pavement" type summer of 2007.

[kold weather]

I think given the SSt's right now I'll be surprised if they don't go for a -ve NAO, as Beng mentioned using the method of the met on that forum has shown that we could have a very negative NAO. i think the met office won't be quite as bold and have a overall slightly negative NAO but with the range generally between +1 down to -1.

[summer blizzard]

I personally think that they will call for a value between -1 and -1.5, very negative.

Glacier Point, could you post the anomoly charts of May-June combined??

Brickfielder, i agree with your thoughts about a strong vortex forming however if the current pattern of outgoing radiation continued, i would expect the main Polar Vortexes to form in Siberia and Canada, favouring high pressure in the GIN Sea.

[Iceberg]

The problem is that there is not a direct correlation between SST's and NAO, It's only one factor in the METO's and UCL's NAO forecast.

It's not so much the SST's themselves but the driver behind the SST set up.

[mcweather]

Interesting topic this one, The cold and snow lovers amongst us will all ways live in hope. Yes We all know that even when many good pointers are in place we still don't get a proper winter here in the uk. Which is why I think the next colder and snowier than average one is likely to come out relatively of the blue with little or no long range prediction picking it up.

Much though I have huge respect for the Met office, their long range forecasts are generally so cautious that even if all their predictors were screaming that another 63 or 79 was on the way they would probaby just say they were expecting a colder than average winter and then play it up as they went along. I don't blame them though really. Reputations are hard won but easily lost in the weather game.

[Gavin P]

Glacier Point, if possible, could you post the anomaly for May 1995 and how its compares to 2007. I'm of the belief that 1995 is a closer match to this year, than 2005. Cheers. :lol:

Edited July 2, 2007 by Gavin P

[Glacier Point]

Here you go....

May 1995 May June 1995

May 2007 May June 2007

[Gavin P]

Thanks GP. There is definatly a similarity, IMO. The anomalies were more intense in 1995 though. Nevertheless it looks like a clear and definate -NAO call from the ,et Office to me. I'll be amazed if they call anything other than negative. The only question, IMO, is how negative they go.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Here you go....

May 1995 May June 1995

May 2007 May June 2007

The two points of note for me, and I don't know how that will play out are

1] The much cooler west Greenland area

2] The much warmer area to north of the UK

Will this make a difference? I have a nagging feeling it will.

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

I certainly think a weaker signal than 95 is likely to be the outcome.

Tamara

Agreed. Because of many other factors, foremost being the warmer North Sea and continental mass, even should the NAO end up being negative for the coming winter I think it would be foolish to be looking for an 80's type season (even though this summer is 80's in style).

I would suggest that it is almost certain that we will have a better winter than 06/07 and if we are lucky it could be better than 05/06.

Incidentally, when is the MetO NAO forecast released?

[PersianPaladin]

I would suggest that it is almost certain that we will have a better winter than 06/07 and if we are lucky it could be better than 05/06.

Incidentally, when is the MetO NAO forecast released?

Almost certain? With respect, you have no evidence to prove such.

:o

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Almost certain? With respect, you have no evidence to prove such.

:o

In fairness I think that assertion is based on the belief that it cannot be any worse than last winter....as bad as it gets for cold lovers and if it is on that basis it is a reasonable quote IMO

BFTP

Edited July 3, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Stu_London]

Agreed. Because of many other factors, foremost being the warmer North Sea and continental mass, even should the NAO end up being negative for the coming winter I think it would be foolish to be looking for an 80's type season (even though this summer is 80's in style).

I would suggest that it is almost certain that we will have a better winter than 06/07 and if we are lucky it could be better than 05/06.

Incidentally, when is the MetO NAO forecast released?

I for one would not welcome a 05/06 type winter. All we got was a displaced Euro High which meant stagnant cool air over the UK for long periods. It wasn't until mid/late Feb that some proper Northern Blocking came along

[Anti-Mild]

Almost certain? With respect, you have no evidence to prove such.

:o

But there is also no evidence to suggest that it would be worse than 2006/07. I am relying on the law of averages and the assumption that the winter ahead will have a negative NAO signal. The only time in the entire CET series where there was 2 consecutive winters with a CET of more than 6c was 88/89 and 89/90 and both of those winters had moderately positive NAO signals.

So you are correct in saying that there is no direct evidence but if the forecasted -ve NAO signal is accurate then I would be fairly confident in my assumption.

[Glacier Point]

The only time in the entire CET series where there was 2 consecutive winters with a CET of more than 6c was 88/89 and 89/90 and both of those winters had moderately positive NAO signals.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/ao.data

[urgghhh] [horahh]*, and check out the AO for those [horrid] [wonderful]* years - indicating that there was more than just SSTA forcing going on there.

*delete as applicable.

Edited July 3, 2007 by Glacier Point

[Mr Sleet]

In fairness I think that assertion is based on the belief that it cannot be any worse than last winter....as bad as it gets for cold lovers and if it is on that basis it is a reasonable quote IMO

BFTP

We had our best snowfalls for 13 years this last winter, 4 inches in Jan and a whacking 9 inches in february- I'll have some more of that I think !

[Yorkshire Snow]

I for one would not welcome a 05/06 type winter. All we got was a displaced Euro High which meant stagnant cool air over the UK for long periods. It wasn't until mid/late Feb that some proper Northern Blocking came along

Hi Stu,

Guess this all depended on your location. Here in Yorkshire (East) we had a very good Christmas / New Year cold spell. The Easterley of late December brought settled snow to sea level for the better part of a week and I recorded one of the coldest daytime temperatures since the early 80's (-6 degrees on 28 or 29 December .... not sure which ... I'm at work...) I even managed to get myself and my 6 year old son on the front page of the local paper sledging at Terrington bank (we were the first there and I had to help the evening press guy push his car up the hill !!!)...... so for me I'd happily settle for a 2005/2006. In this modern climate and continued warming it could end up being classed as quite severe for the time !!!

YS

[Anti-Mild]

I would also be looking for a cooling of SSTs around the UK and no indian Summer this year.

It would also be helpful if the summer wasn't too wet as I'm sure there is a correlation between wet summers and mild winters.

Oh, and can we please have a below average Atlantic Hurricane season - keep all that tropical air down south!

And if we must have a polar vortex can someone make sure it is anchored in the Canadian Arctic or in Siberia? Thanks!

[Gavin P]

I've never heard of a correlation between wet summers and mild winters. In my view there is really no relationship between winter and summer, or summer and winter for that matter. You look at some summers like 1939, 1962, 1978, etc.... And they hardly set the world alight for good weather.

I agree with Ian that we could do with seeing a general cooling through the remainder of the year, and a cool and wet September would be most welcome. I know most will disagree, but I wouldn't mind seeing summer arrive in October, personally.

[kold weather]

05-06 winter was not too bad, however one must remember that in that winter the NAO was pretty much neutral for a good chunk of it till we reached March and that month ended up decently below average. I think a weak-moderate -ve nAO will be the likely call, I say that because the signal isn't quite as strong as some years (though the sub-surface signal is as strong as 1962-63 according to Chuck on easternuswx) and so will probably call for something like -0.4 as the middle point I guess. If the subsurface idea is right (and it was very impressive last winter, nailed it really) then this winter could hold a surprise or two. i think we will still have towatc hthe Pacific signal as well, weak La nina is very good, anything below say -1.0 and then it starts to beocme worse, if we gt a strong La Nina then southerlies start to beocme the most likely option, thankfully strong La nina is looking just about out of the question right now.

The 06-07 winter was a poor one but if there was one thing to come from it, it is that we can still have a widespread 2-3 day snow event that gives moderatly deep snowfalls depsite having just had one of the mildest Jan's in the CET history!

Edited July 3, 2007 by kold weather

[swfc]

So given the the southerly jet at the moment would anyone consider a big turnaround during this winter even given the forecast nao.Meaning the jet moving north come dec.

[Damien]

The 06-07 winter was a poor one but if there was one thing to come from it, it is that we can still have a widespread 2-3 day snow event that gives moderatly deep snowfalls depsite having just had one of the mildest Jan's in the CET history!

Really? I must have been asleep during this "event".

Anyhow in around a year or two I'll be in Norway. I can put all this stuff behind me then. No longer will events in the Pacific (like a small pool of warm water off the coast of Ecuador or wherever it is) affect my remaining winters of "youth".

Edited July 3, 2007 by Osbourne One-Nil
Because what happens on TWO is no concern of us here.

[summer blizzard]

Here you go....

May 1995 May June 1995

May 2007 May June 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso.../nao/index.html

Given that 2006 has a better tropical allignment of anomolies, but slightly warmer anomolies to the noth, i would say that a value in the region of -1 to -1.5 is likely to be predicted.

[kippure]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso.../nao/index.html

Given that 2006 has a better tropical allignment of anomolies, but slightly warmer anomolies to the noth, i would say that a value in the region of -1 to -1.5 is likely to be predicted.

Is that really a lower then average value? Or just normal?

[kold weather]

It'd be a very negative NAO if he means the overall winter forecast, in the top 10 winters overall for the most negative NAO I'd guess.