Virtual Storm Chase 2

[Gorky]

There is someone streaming their GR Level 3(or 2?) here...

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/theweatherboard

Don't know of any local links. ABC33/40 was streaming the action further North in central AL.

[Gorky]

Tornado Emergency for Northern Montgomery Suburbs.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR ELMORE...

EASTERN AUTAUGA AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY...TORNADO EMERGENCY...

AT 304 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED

JUST SOUTHWEST OF MILLBROOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

ELMORE...BOB WOODRUFF LAKE AND SPEIGNER BY 315 PM CST...

WETUMPKA BY 320 PM CST...

WALLSBORO AND TEN CEDAR ESTATES BY 325 PM CST...

DEXTER BY 330 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS

STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE

PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY...UNDERGROUND IF

POSSIBLE!

[NL]

Looks like the same one has been spotted a few times..long track tornado..??

[Gorky]

Yes, and it's looking as strong as it ever has. It'll probably continue on into Georgia too. It's maxing out the Gate-to-Gate velocities on GR Level 3. Unable to get GR Level 2 data from either nearby radar site to see how much stronger it actualy is.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

[Gorky]

WFSA is streaming live coverage btw...

http://www.wsfa.com/

The storm crossing over into Georgia is Maxed out on the Atlanta radar also and that must be scanning very high up in the storm due to how far it is away. There is a high chance that there is a strong tornado with this storm right now.

[Gorky]

This is the same storm that started out in Florida, taking aim on Cusseta, Georgia. Does not look good for the town. A tornado is confirmed on the ground with this storm

[NL]

Premilary reports have 35 tornado touchdowns, though you would

expect this number to fall as some would have been the same one.

Most storms last night where travelling 50-60mph hence 1 or 2

having long tracks, 9 injuries no fatalities ...

[Cookie]

this may sounds like a daft question, but how do they prove its the same storm?

[Paul Sherman]

this may sounds like a daft question, but how do they prove its the same storm?

Cookie

If they find a Continous Damage Path from either Air or Land then it will be the same Tornado, if the Damage Path is broken at any point then the Meso on the Supercell probably Occluded and a New Mesocyclone Formed and New Tornado dropped down, they have Historical Radar as well and can see what Supercell tracked where, they then piece it all together and when the Damage is found then an EF Rating is given.

Paul S

[Cookie]

thanks mate that was a great help.

[NL]

Slight risk today..........

AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND

WEST GULF COAST REGION DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE

SEEMINGLY WITHIN TWO REGIMES. FIRST...SEVERE STORMS /WITH A DOMINANT

HAIL THREAT/ WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SOUTHEAST

ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. FARTHER EAST

WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...00Z

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME

INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST

TX/MUCH OF LA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS MID-UPPER 60S F

SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND LA

AND SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG

MLCAPE/...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 35-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET

WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND

TORNADOES. AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE

MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND PERHAPS

SOUTHERN AL.

[NL]

Tornado watch issued.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

[Paul Sherman]

Slight Risk for the Lower Mississippi Valley today, Tornado Potential all relies on the sufficient Return of Gulf Moisture to the Risk Area. If 60-65 Dews can move North then there is a good chance of some Discrete Supercells and with quite a strong LLJ Expect Fireworks, if Moisture is lacking expect Elevated Storms or Lines and SLW The Main Threats.

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

Slight Risk for the Lower Mississippi Valley today, Tornado Potential all relies on the sufficient Return of Gulf Moisture to the Risk Area. If 60-65 Dews can move North then there is a good chance of some Discrete Supercells and with quite a strong LLJ Expect Fireworks, if Moisture is lacking expect Elevated Storms or Lines and SLW The Main Threats.

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

Slight risk over the ARKLATEX area and the lower half of the Mississipi Valley:

EDIT: Sherman beat me to it ...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1023 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY TONIGHT FROM THE

ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS MS/AL...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NM AND KS WILL PHASE TOGETHER BY LATE

AFTERNOON ACROSS OK/NRN TX...AND AID IN AMPLIFYING THE LARGE SCALE

TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS

VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN

NERN KS...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY ESEWD AND INTO WRN KY BY

DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE

CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

OF INITIAL CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE...AS DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AS OF

MID MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN SRN TX IS

EXPECTED TO SURGE NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE TODAY...IN

RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY

LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL

RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR

FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD TO THE ARKLATEX BY EVENING.

THE INITIALLY SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG CONVECTIVE

INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY

DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THEREAFTER...AS THE

STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFTING SPREADS EWD...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP IN THE ARKLATEX AREA...AND THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EWD OVERNIGHT

ACROSS AR/NRN LA/MS/TN/AL.

LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT AND MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW OF 70-90 KT WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG LOW/DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE

INITIAL CONVECTION IN THE ARKLATEX MAY CONSIST OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN

ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND

LARGE HAIL.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO

MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO

EVOLVE TO A MORE DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF

TN/MS/AL...AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES ALONG THE COLD

FRONT.

Looks like alot of the severe weather will be in their overnight period or early to mid morning for us.

Some very warm air over TX currently, 30C at DFW airport currently!:

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/Dallas-F...ernational.html

Tomorrow it is forecast temps of just 13C at DFW as the cold front to the NW passes through overnight and is the trigger for some of the squall lines expected overnight further east in the SLGT area:

-Tues 00z UTC

[NL]

1've been watch!n these updates all day and look!n more favourable as the day progresses, gonna be late for us

here when !t does k!ck off though.. m!dn!ght???

Sorry for the use of !, the keyboard _(eye) !s knacked aga!n....

[Roger J Smith]

Some tornadic activity likely in northern FL around Ocala to Daytona Beach later (23z to 01z) as the cold front enters from the Gulf of Mexico. Further north the front has now moved offshore through the Carolinas with reports of scattered minor severe weather earlier today.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1've been watch!n these updates all day and look!n more favourable as the day progresses, gonna be late for us

here when !t does k!ck off though.. m!dn!ght???

Sorry for the use of !, the keyboard _(eye) !s knacked aga!n.... B)

Thought it was only me that had keyboard issues!! LOL

[Paul Sherman]

That wording sounds like a Possible MODERATE Risk for Monday or Tuesday to me.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0354 AM CST THU FEB 28 2008

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SVR OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY

DAY-5/3RD-4TH FROM MS DELTA REGION TO GA.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING NOW OVER N-CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD MOVE ACROSS

WRN CONUS DAYS 3-4/1ST-3RD...THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DAYS

5-6/3RD-5TH. PROGS NOW AGREE ON SRN STREAM DOMINANCE OF MID-UPPER

TROUGH...AND RESULTANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS INVOF CENTRAL GULF COAST

REGION AROUND DAY-5/3RD-4TH. DURING PAST 24 HOURS...OPERATIONAL

SPECTRAL AND ECMWF MODELS NEARLY HAVE SWAPPED 500 MB PROG TRENDS FOR

WHAT IS NOW DAY-5...WITH ECMWF SOMEWHAT FARTHER E IN CLOSING CYCLONE

ALOFT AND SPECTRAL MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER W. MREF PACKAGES HAVE

TENDED WWD AS WELL...TOWARD OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...WITH THEIR

CONSENSUS SOMEWHAT WWD OF ECMWF. WILL UTILIZE BLEND OF ECMWF AND

MREF MEAN...WHICH RESULTS IN THIS GENERAL SCENARIO --

1. ORGANIZED SVR MAY OCCUR DAY 4 OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN

TX...PERHAPS LIMITED ON N END BY PROBABLE ANAFRONTAL SFC REGIME AND

MORE UNCERTAIN QUALITY OF RETURN FLOW...

2. SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS GULF COAST

STATES LATE DAY-4 INTO EARLY DAY-6...SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING OF

BOTH RETURN FLOW AND WARM SECTOR SHEAR AS SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES

INLAND. THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS PORTIONS FL PENINSULA...AND

AS FAR E AS PORTIONS CAROLINAS LATE DAY-5 INTO DAY-6.

[NL]

Yes indeed Paul, looks to be quite interesting, hope my laptop can be fixed and have it back by then,

using my daughters at the moment, maybe if i give her some cash she might hire it out to me.

[Paul Sherman]

Chase Targets for Tomorrow Boys Please!

I am opting for Witchita Falls at the moment, this gives me a North Road into Oklahoma and the Highway to Heaven (287) if I need to drop South East for anything that develops ahead of the Squall Line.

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

Morning Paul, my chase target is Gainesville TX, north of DFW in the I-35 corridor with option north to Ardmore and E-W along the Hwy 82, think Wichita Falls maybe too far west by the evning when it kicks off.

Looking at the t+48 sfc prog, cold front lying roughly SW-NE through the Witchita Falls area, tink I'd like to be further east in the warm sector:

GFS ppn forecasts 00z-06z Monday:

Dallas forecast Sounding for 06z Monday (00z Monday their time) looks rather juicy CAPE wise, with winds stronglyy backed towards the surface with plenty of speed shear aloft, ideal conditions for severe t-storms to develop in the warm sector ahead of the cold front - but could be a late evning/overnight show though,

... be interested to see where the dry line/cold front intersection on the sfc synoptic chart above ends up - as this maybe the focal point for severe storms as it heads NE/E.

[Gorky]

It'll be further south for me I think, looking to position myself somewhere around Brady, TX. I'm sure I remember Paul mention a decent BBQ restaurant in this area last year! Roll on Steak Chase 2008 - only 56 days to go.

[Nick F]

Well, the SLIGHT risk has been extended alot further north and northeast this morning - covering much of OK; parts of KS, MO and AR. Think I will stick with my target area of Gainesville - with a possible trek north towards Ardmore or east towards Sherman. Looks like the main risk will be pretty late after dark unfortunately, but possibility of some discrete/isolated storms in the warm sector breaking the cap ahead of the cold front mush before nightfall though.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1152 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF KS AND SWRN MO

SWD ACROSS WRN AR/OK AND INTO CENTRAL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES IS

EXPECTED TO DIG/AMPLIFY WITH TIME...WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD

INTO/ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING WRN TROUGH

WILL ALSO MOVE STEADILY SEWD WITH TIME. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO

EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS IA/KS TO A FRONTAL WAVE

INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FROM THE

UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT --

ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF KS/MO SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...AS LOW-LEVEL SLYS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE

ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. A LEAD SHORT-WAVE

TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY MAY

CONTRIBUTE TO CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...LIKELY RETARDING

DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE. BY

AFTERNOON...MIXED-LAYER CAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST

ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MO AND SERN KS...MUCH OF OK...AND SWD INTO TX --

WITHIN WARM SECTOR BOUNDED TO THE NORTH BY THE COLD FRONT AND TO THE

WEST BY AN ADVANCING DRY LINE.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND THE LACK OF A

CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM MAY HINDER AFTERNOON STORM

DEVELOPMENT IN THE FREE WARM SECTOR. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL

LIKELY BE NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS DURING

THE MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL SHIFT/EXPAND SEWD ACROSS OK AND

PERHAPS THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN OK AND SWD INTO

WRN N TX INVOF ADVANCING DRYLINE.

SOMEWHAT MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY A FAVORABLE WIND

FIELD...CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT.

THUS...DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE/BECOME SEVERE. WHILE

PRIMARY STORM MODE INVOF FROM SHOULD BE LINEAR -- POSSIBLY WITH

SMALL-SCALE BOWS...ANY STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT

OR SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH

THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG

WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD

ACROSS PARTS OF MO/ERN OK/AR AND TX...WITH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT

LIKELY SHIFTING SWD WITH TIME INTO CENTRAL TX AS 100 KT H5 JET DIGS

SEWD ACROSS FAR W TX LATE. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT

WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT

WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/02/2008

Tomorrow is a MODERATE risk further east across the lower Mississipi area, think I might play Mississipi state upto Tennessee border, perhaps heading north or NE of Jackson:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html