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Virtual Storm Chase 2


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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Tornado Vortex signatures now appearing in the southernparts of Louisiana.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

4 Tornadoes at the moment with just 1 Injury so far!

The Florida Tornado was near Cape Carnavarel heading towards the Kennedy Space Centre

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

13 tornadoes reported yesterday, one report mentions that a wall cloud was

observered and heard a possible tornado..??!!

Reports can be read here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

One tornado reported Florida within the last 3 hrs EF0 so real weak affair.

No warnings/watches for tornadoes as yet but severe thunderstorm watches

are now in force for the southern tip of Florida.

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

This does not look good for Sunday guys, am expecting a nasty situation in the Mississippi Delta and other Gulf Coasts, would not be surprised to see a Day 2 MODERATE Issued on Saturday if forecasts continue to verify!

post-24-1202940955_thumb.png

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0400 AM CST WED FEB 13 2008

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE ERN GULF STATES...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT

CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE. BUT...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AMPLIFICATION

WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST

LATE THIS WEEK WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF

THE U.S BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TO

THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...A SOUTHERN BRANCH

CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE

NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. AND...MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT

THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AS IMPULSES GRADUALLY

PHASE AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH

OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES.

GIVEN AN ANTICIPATED PRIOR COLD INTRUSION INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF

MEXICO...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM THE NORTH

CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS

WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND

DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST. AND...AS DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR STRENGTHEN...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... AND

TORNADOES...MAY INCREASE SUNDAY. THREAT COULD SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH

ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO

THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY

OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION AT THE

PRESENT TIME.

Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

SLIGHTs issued day 2 and 3 for Central/S/SE TX - nothing particularly indicating a tornado threat - more hail and straightline wind damage threat atm. Though day 3 could materialise a tornado threat - some severe squall lines expected to develop nonetheless ...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Good few days to be in Texas with a SLIGHT today - though only a small 5% risk area of a tornado near the Mexican border. However, a MODERATE risk tomorrow for SE/Central Texas:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

We have a team of guys doing an installation in Tampa at the moment and they have said that there are quite a few warnings going out in the Central Florida area.

"The opportunity for strong tornadoes is our concern, and we're looking at it closely," Sharp said. "We don't play around with events like this in February. "That's when people lose their lives."

More information here: CLICKY

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Just a heads-up for tomorrow - MODERATE risk for parts of Texas:

post-1052-1203109866_thumb.png

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1145 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ECNTRL

TX SWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPR TX COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO

THE LWR MS VLY...

...SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY...

UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN SONORA/SRN AZ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS

THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON

SATURDAY. IN THE LWR LEVELS...A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE

MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VLY INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTN...THEN

INTO SRN MO BY 12Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE S OF

THE LOW...THEN ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN TX SATURDAY

AFTN...REACHING CNTRL PORTIONS OF AR/LA...AND THE NWRN GULF BASIN BY

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX AND

THE SABINE RVR VLY ALONG/S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY LATE SATURDAY

AFTN...60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL EXIST AS FAR N AS THE RED

RIVER...WITH MID-UPR 60S INTO ECNTRL TX. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO

MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.

ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD

ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN PLAINS...WITH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY

ACROSS WCNTRL TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS

ASSOCD WITH THE UPR LOW.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN DOWNSTREAM IN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR

DURING THE AFTN...AS THE CAP ERODES AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE MODE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE APCHG

COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ECNTRL TX SWD TO THE MIDDLE TX

COAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT.

CONCERN FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE

DISCRETE STORMS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT 0-1KM EFFECTIVE STORM

RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2.

AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD DURING THE

EVENING...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH DMGG

WIND GUSTS/HAIL BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT ALONG THE SABINE RVR

VLY/UPR TX COAST. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED AT LATITUDES

FARTHER N...ESPECIALLY N OF THE RED RVR. HERE...LARGE HAIL MAY

STILL OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE N END OF THE SQUALL LINE.

ERN EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE JUST W OF THE MS RVR

VLY...WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY GRADIENT BEING CONFINED TO THE

IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION OF SERN LA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY

UNSTABLE PROFILES...ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR THROUGHOUT

SRN AR AND MOST OF NRN/CNTRL LA OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 02/15/2008

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Thanks for posting that Nick. Looks like I will be starting out in San Antonio for tomorrows Virtual Chase, and would favour staying just North of that City as the last time I went there the Ring Roads make the M25 Look like a Country Lane!!

The Slight for Sunday could still be Upgraded yet to a MODERATE, Depends on how this system evolves as the Squall line move Eastwards tomorrow Night across the Mississippi Delta.

The Pattern is looking VERY Springlike already (Slightly Worrying) with systems and Zonal flow all next week, Could be quite a risk at the end of next week across the Plains for FRI/SAT, One to Watch for Sure

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Thanks for posting that Nick. Looks like I will be starting out in San Antonio for tomorrows Virtual Chase, and would favour staying just North of that City as the last time I went there the Ring Roads make the M25 Look like a Country Lane!!

Fredericksburg to Austin a good bet, think we were on that road weren't we that evening to catch those anvil crawlers near Fred'burg, far enough away from the San Antonio metro area.

The Pattern is looking VERY Springlike already (Slightly Worrying) with systems and Zonal flow all next week, Could be quite a risk at the end of next week across the Plains for FRI/SAT, One to Watch for Sure

I think its looking good this year again, despite perhaps the early start, La Nina years are historically pretty productive in late spring for severe weather over the Plains.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Fredericksburg to Austin a good bet, think we were on that road weren't we that evening to catch those anvil crawlers near Fred'burg, far enough away from the San Antonio metro area.

I think its looking good this year again, despite perhaps the early start, La Nina years are historically pretty productive in late spring for severe weather over the Plains.

Tell Me about It, Nick have you seen this, read the few paragraphs!

Ah, Dear Old Fredericksburg, where on a Technicality You witnessed your 1st US Tornado/FC

http://climatesci.org/2008/02/12/relations...aks-to-la-nina/

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Morning SPC update, 15% risk of a tornado in MDT risk area, 30% risk or greater of 3/4" hail and 10% or greater risk of 2" hail over S Central and E TX:

post-1052-1203152973_thumb.pngpost-1052-1203152990_thumb.png

post-1052-1203153025_thumb.png

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1143 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL

TX...MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...TO E-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS

W-CENTRAL/SW TX TO LOWER TX COAST...ARKLATEX REGION...MUCH OF

LA...AND WRN MS....

OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH

SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES -- APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM S-CENTRAL TX

ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN INTO E TX DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR.

...SYNOPSIS...

MAIN UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE UPPER LOW -- NOW

EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER EXTREME SERN AZ. THIS

CYCLONE IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER PECOS VALLEY BEFORE TURNING

NEWD OVER ERN OK LATE IN PERIOD..IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW.

AT SFC...COMPLEX PATTERN SHOWS THREE MAIN FEATURES ATTM...

1. ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM ARKLATEX REGION

SWWD ACROSS CLL/SAT AREAS TO FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE BETWEEN

COT-DRT...THEN SWWD INTO MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL COAHUILA. THIS FRONT

IS FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY EARLY IN PERIOD...MOVING SEWD ACROSS

RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NWWD OVER CENTRAL/N TX.

THIS WILL OCCUR AS LEESIDE LOW -- INITIALLY OVER NERN

MEX...MOVES/REFORMS NEWD OVER N-CENTRAL TX. BY 17/00-03Z TIME

FRAME...WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER SERN OK WITH FRONT

MOVING EWD/SEWD OVER E-CENTRAL TX AND COASTAL BEND REGION. BY

17/12Z...EXPECT OCCLUDED/STACKED CYCLONE FROM SFC-500 MB OVER MO

OZARKS...COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS LA AND NWRN GULF.

2. DRYLINE...DIFFICULT TO LOCATE PRECISELY ATTM BUT EVIDENT OVER

PIEDMONT REGION BETWEEN MEX SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE AND RIO

GRANDE. THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE E OF RIO GRANDE THROUGH EARLY-MID

AFTERNOON...OVER PORTIONS DEEP S TX...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD

FRONT.

3. MARINE WARM FRONT...ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM ABOUT 125 SSW

MSY...JUST S OF GLS...TO FAYETTE COUNTY TX...INTERSECTING ARCTIC

BOUNDARY ABOUT 40 NNE VCT. THIS DENOTES NRN EDGE OF HIGH THETAE

GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. WARM FRONT SHOULD

LIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE TX FASTER THAN OVER SWRN LA. THIS

WILL CAUSE TRIANGULAR WEDGE OF RICHEST WARM SECTOR AIR TO LIFT NWD

ACROSS E TX BEFORE COLD FROPA. WARM SECTOR EXPANSION FARTHER NE

OVER LA AND ARKLATEX REGION PROBABLY WILL BE IMPEDED/PREVENTED BY

CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

...S-CENTRAL TX TO SWRN LA...WARM SECTOR...

GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS FCST INVOF COLD FRONT WHERE LINEAR

EVOLUTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY SWWD BACKBUILDING

WITH TIME. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL POSE RISK OF BOTH DAMAGING

WIND AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH HAIL. TRANSITION OF INFLOW PARCELS

FROM SFC-BASED TO ELEVATED MAY BE GRADUAL AND NEBULOUS ACROSS

DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...SO TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES ARE DRAWN

TO ALLOW CONSIDERABLE NWD TOLERANCE FOR WARM SECTOR EXPANSION OVER E

TX.

POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE/ROTATING TSTMS WILL BE GREATEST

ALONG SWRN/TAIL END OF CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW

IS MOST UNDISTURBED AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.

SUCH TSTMS...AS WELL AS ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE WARM SECTOR

CONVECTION...MAY PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES. EXPECT INFLOW

ENVIRONMENT OF RICH MOISTURE...LOW LCL...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE

SHEAR...AND VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH COMMONLY ABOVE 350

J/KG.

MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ATTM INVOLVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY

SUSTAINED CONVECTION S OF FRONT...AND ALONG OR E OF POSSIBLE

DRYLINE. PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF

THIS REGION THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING LAPSE RATES AND

CAPE...BUT ALSO SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING TO SUPPRESS

PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. LATE IN PERIOD...GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL

SHOULD SHRINK SEWD IN AREAL EXTENT ACROSS LA...AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT

IN MAGNITUDE...DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

PROFILES STILL WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL OVER WARM

SECTOR.

Still fancy the Hwy 290 between Fredericksburg and Austin, north of San Antonio, with the option of booting up the hwy 281 towards Lampasas

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

I'd pick a starting location East of San Antonio myself in the hope of something firing ahead of line. The squall line may well be a bit more broken further south also so I'll take Schulenburg on the I-10 as a starting spot :blush: Terrain looks passable in this area, Road options are ok also.

As an aside, I really like the Terrain option on google maps that is now present. Will help this May for sure in avoiding the winding roads. The detail when you zoom in is amazing!

Edited by Gorky
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

1 tornado reported Morganza South Louisiana, line of damage

estimated around 8 mile with 1 house severely damaged.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Tornado Watch in place now for SE/E Texas, quite a few discrete cells firing up along and east of the I-35 between San Antonio and Dallas/Ft Worth. Think I'd reposition to Bryan/College Station NW of Houston as earlier target too far west now :D

post-1052-1203196878_thumb.png

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN TEXAS

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL

900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

VICTORIA TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...

DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS DESTABILIZING

WARM SECTOR IN E TX LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH DEVELOPING

THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE QUICKLY

NEWD ACROSS WW. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS...EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH

ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

...EVANS

EWX_loop.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

All the ingredients are there for severe weather roughly east of the I-35 towards the Houston area and on towards LA - 12z Corpus Christi sounding showed near-perfect conditions for severe t-storms and the potential for tornadoes ... a 'loaded-gun' scenario - with a moist boundary layer up to around 800mb then a cap between 800-700mb (with a layer of wamer drier air) and alot of CAPE above that due to steep mid-level lapse rates - all it takes is a forcing mechanism, i.e. cold front or trough to break the cap. Also, the skew-t showed strongly backed winds towards the surface in relation to upper winds - with strong speed shear aloft too - ideal conditions for supercells and tornado formation:

post-1052-1203198457_thumb.png

Current sfc progs show sfc low and cold front the mechanisms for forcing and breaking any cap in the warm sector:

post-1052-1203198862_thumb.png

Mesoscale analysis shows strong storm-relative helicity and 0-1km shear east of the I-35 currently too:

post-1052-1203198548_thumb.pngpost-1052-1203198561_thumb.png

1000-2000 j/kg MUCAPE over eastern/southeastern TX:

post-1052-1203198621_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Great thunderstorm over Shreveport Lou!s!ana, l!ve stream!ng webcam

http://www.opentopia.com/showcam.php?camid=3506

Looks l!ke the f!reworks are about to explode..!!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Seems like the strongest severe weather was over Louisiana in the end yesterday, where two tornado touchdowns caused some damage, overall 5 tornado reports in the end: 3 in Louisiana and 2 in Texas:

1244  MORGANZA  POINTE COUPEE  LA 3074 9159 A LINE OF DAMAGE ESTIMATED 8 MILES LONG FROM MITCHELL LANE IN MORGANZA TO MANDELLA LANE JUST WEST OF NEW ROADS ALONG LA HIGHWAY 1. ONE HOME SEVERELY DAMAGED IN MORGANZA (LIX) 
0025 APPLE SPRINGS TRINITY TX 3122 9497 POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR APPLE SPRINGS. (HGX)
0335 LA MARQUE GALVESTON TX 2937 9499 TORNADO SPOTTED FROM 1700 MAIN STREET. (HGX)
0942 5 SSW GREENSBURG ST. HELENA LA 3076 9070 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 449 AND ROHNER RD...PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN (LIX)
1000 ROSELAND TANGIPAHOA LA 3076 9051 CAMPER TRAILER HIT IN ROSELAND...TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN...POSSIBLE TORNADO (LIX)

Plenty of hail reports though, golf ball size in Collin and Hill Counties TX.

A SLIGHT today east of the lower Mississipi over the Gulf States over to the Carolinas:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

.... currently a tornado watch for the Mississipi Delta area of LA (New Orleans) and the lower half of Mississipi State:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

... and a tornado warning over south/central MS, bearing in mind it's the night-time too:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

459 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SANDY HOOK...

LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WEST HATTIESBURG...

* UNTIL 600 AM CST

* AT 459 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANDY HOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50

MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

SANDY HOOK BY 505 AM CST...

PINEBUR BY 515 AM CST...

BAXTERVILLE BY 520 AM CST...

8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PURVIS BY 535 AM CST...

WEST HATTIESBURG BY 545 AM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Nobody here following the storms at the moment? Long lived tornadic Supercell has tracked through the FL panhandle and Southern Alabama now with lots of damage reports from this storm and others further north in central AL. The storm out on it's own ahead of the line looks really dngerous right now. Classic hook and impressive radar signitures.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Nobody here following the storms at the moment? Long lived tornadic Supercell has tracked through the FL panhandle and Southern Alabama now with lots of damage reports from this storm and others further north in central AL. The storm out on it's own ahead of the line looks really dngerous right now. Classic hook and impressive radar signitures.

any links?

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Cheers Gorky, ! was follow!ng earl!er but my laptop has been act!ng around,

keeps freez!n up...!!! aarrgghh..

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