Virtual Storm Chase 2

[Gorky]

I've been following the models for almost a week now since it appeared on the short range GFS models. It has changed surprisingly little and it certainly looked like an event was on the cards as early as last week. The winds fields are impressive tomorrow and I imagine any storm is going to move in the 50-60mph range. Would not be a fun chase across through the the chase area. I think the moderate risk has been issued today primarily for wind threat but by tomorrow when we get an idea on what today's storms may do to the forecast, I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk of tornados also (I'd guess 15% hatched over Mississippi into Tennessee). Will certainly be an interesting one to follow.

[Paul Sherman]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1105 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...SRN

IL...SRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN KY...MIDDLE AND WRN TN...PARTS OF NRN

AND WRN AL...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN MS...PARTS OF NRN LA......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS

INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS AND TN/OH VALLEYS......

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LIKELY OVER LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH

CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY...

THE LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN U.S. WILL AGGRESSIVELY MOVE FROM

SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TUE AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM

ENTERS PAC NW.

AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY

AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NRN TX AND TO THE S OF FRONTAL

ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS.

WITH 60F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE NWD TO FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR E AS SRN

IN/OH AND MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS GULF STATES FROM ERN TX TO AL...THE

THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE

PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT WILL TRACK FROM SRN

PLAINS TO LOWER OH/WRN TN VALLEYS BY TUE NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THE LOW

LEVEL JET BACKING AND INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 50-60KT

LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...VERY

STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS

MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUE AM AHEAD OF THE

SURFACE LOW ERN OK/NRN TX INTO WRN AR. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD

NEWD ACROSS MID MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY

BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON SURFACED BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM

SECTOR SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS/WRN TN VALLEYS.

WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR

AND SUCH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH

WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND

WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU

THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT

AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE

POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK

PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.

Looks more like an April Set-Up this one, not often you see a MODERATE In the Day 2 Outlook!

I would expect quite a Tornado Outbreak in quite populated areas with terrible Chase Terrain. Possibly between 20-50 Tornadoes are possible tomorrow.

Will have to get Potty to find the Live links for the areas for this time tomorrow!

Paul S

[Cookie]

I would expect quite a Tornado Outbreak in quite populated areas with terrible Chase Terrain. Possibly between 20-50 Tornadoes are possible tomorrow.

Will have to get Potty to find the Live links for the areas for this time tomorrow!

Paul S

please do could be a great night :lol:

[WhiteFox]

I'm a couple of hours behind this time, on the West Coast. I'll try and keep an eye out for updates, but it'll be about 7pm CST before I even get back from work. We also have our own Pacific storm moving in here tomorrow. Going to be a busy weather day in the US tomorrow!

[Roger J Smith]

Expect a gradual development along the cold front as it reaches approximately Little Rock AR to Houston TX late tomorrow afternoon CST (which will be around 23z to 02z) ... there could be some severe weather earlier in TX and OK but I'm expecting this system to reach a peak later and maintain some severe weather through the night as it moves into TN, MS, LA and then AL.

Not the most violent upper set-up I've seen at this time of year, but probably well within severe limits. The air mass ahead of the front is generally around 25/18 temp/dp which is relatively high for early February in the region. Portions of this frontal system further east are probably going to remain below severe limits due to lack of forcing and cold ground temperatures producing a stable layer. But the very warm air will ooze further north as this front ripples along, allowing temps in WV and VA to reach 25 C. B)

[Paul Sherman]

Pretty much agree with what Roger has written there. To pick a Chase Target is pretty hard with such a Huge Moderate Risk, but I am leaning towards the Missouri Bootheel. As Nathan says these storms will be travelling like a Train as is expected at this time of year and also because of the 120kt Jet Max.

I just hope things go okay with the Super Tuesday Elections and it does not turn into a Terrible Tuesday. Places like Arkansas, Missouri etc are voting today and a lot of people will be out in the balmy temperatures ahead of the Surface Low!

It was 80f in parts of Oklahoma yesterday!

Paul S

[Cookie]

did you managed to get some links mate?

80f! crazy

[NL]

had loads of links and live report sites from last years chase, but unfortunately i've lost quite a lot of them coz i rebooted the laptop and forgot to save my fav's ..DOH..!! I've been searchin again got a few but not all the ones i had , i'm sure Potty will still have many as he's not as daft as me..!!! ..

Lookin forward to gettin some practice in today and tomorrow( that has been updated to a moderate risk also) for April onwards..

[NL]

Tomorrows risk has been downgraded in the last half hour to slight risk, still moderate for today though..!

[Gorky]

Tomorrows risk has been downgraded in the last half hour to slight risk, still moderate for today though..!

I don't think tomorrow was ever a moderate risk. The way they release the updates is that they don't put out the new day 2 until a few hours after the day 1 and they put the new day 3 even later after that so you often see yesterdays day 2 and todays day 1 at the same time in the morning when they are in fact for the same day.

As for todays risk, it's going to hinge a lot on if we get any warm sector activity ahead of the cold front. The SPC seemed to think it was a possibility and the models have been back and forth over this for the last day or so.

As I write this it looks like they have updated to High over Arkansas...!

Edited February 5, 2008 by Gorky

[NL]

Looking like an eventful day, lets hope everyone has fair warning, plus the speeds these storms will be moving

will put a lot of pressure on the forecasters to pinpoint where the tornadoes will strike.

[Nick F]

Interesting mesoscale analysis earlier today, some impressive instability across TX and OK in the early morning there given lack of sunshine - with 1000-1500 j/kg MUCAPE over this area topped by a low-levl jet:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0503 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/ERN

OK...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33...

VALID 051103Z - 051300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33

CONTINUES.

10Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SFC COLD FRONT FROM SRN MO OZARKS SWWD TO

NEAR 30 S TUL...35 SE OKC...20 S FSI...TO FRONTAL-WAVE LOW APCHG

SPS. DRYLINE INTERSECTS COLD FRONT NEAR LOCATION OF LOW...EXTENDING

SSWWD ACROSS ABI AREA TO JUST W DRT. MUCH OF DRYLINE N OF RIO

GRANDE HAS BEGUN TO PROGRESS EWD AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS

RESPOND TO APCH OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NM/CO.

DRYLINE WILL REPRESENT WRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL

AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN HILL COUNTRY AND N-CENTRAL TX. DRYLINE

PASSAGE ACROSS WRN COUNTIES OF WW SHOULD REMOVE SVR THREAT FROM W-E.

MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH INITIAL CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX CONVECTION BECAME

DIFFUSE AND WEAKENED...ADDITIONAL STG-SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS

POSSIBLE IN MOIST SECTOR FROM N TX NNEWD ACROSS ERN OK...PERHAPS

SPREADING NEWD INTO WRN AR AFTER 15Z. SVR HAIL AND STG/DAMAGING

GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUCH TSTMS...WHICH WOULD OCCUR IN

ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COMMONLY

40-50 KT. ELEVATED MUCAPE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT N OF SFC

COLD FRONT OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS AS BUOYANT LAYER BECOMES

PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER...THOUGH THETAE ATOP FRONTAL LAYER AND

ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. FCST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES

INDICATE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL WITH ACTIVITY

NOW OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL OK AND S-CENTRAL/SERN KS AS IT

MOVES/REDEVELOPS EWD.

Think I would target somewhere in Central Arkansas as the severe storm threat moves east during their afternoon - though some good fast roads away from large towns is a must as the linear t-storm squall lines will be moving very quickly.

[Gorky]

Arkansas is not a good chase area. The most chasable areas would be in the North East towards the Missouri Bootheel. that would put you out of the High Risk but you'd have a better chance of chasing there rather than being chased!. I remember the Pocahontas - Marmaduke - Bragadoccio - Caruthersville - Dyersburg monster tornado which went through the bootheel a couple of years back and all the videos I saw of that showed very flat terrain with few trees, so thats the sort of are I'll park myself in today With fast storm motions and low road options, I'd want to see these storms coming!

Edited February 5, 2008 by Gorky

[Nick F]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Judging my the impressive MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG over N TX and S OK earlier in the morning there in the warm sector ahead of the cold front and the strong LLJ - I'm not suprised!

Central/East AK up to MO bootheel a good bet for a target. Going to be compulsive following later!

I agree Nathan - central AK not good chase country with hills so I'd go east/NE of Little Rock upto MO bootheel

[Nick F]

More recent Meso analysis for AK, tornado watch likely to be issued:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0639 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN AR AND FAR ERN OK AND

SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051239Z - 051515Z

STRONG ASCENT UNDERWAY AHEAD OF VIGOROUS TROUGH AND IS REFLECTED IN

THE INCREASING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ERN OK. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES ABOVE THE CAP NOTED ON SHV/LIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAPID

INTENSIFICATION OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS CINH CONTINUES TO DECREASE.

POTENT VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL

POTENTIAL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MID LEVEL ROTATION ALREADY

EVIDENT WITH STORMS W OF FSM. AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO LOW 70S

MLCAPES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

TORNADIC POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO WRN AR DURING

MORNING AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 14Z.

[Nick F]

Latest meso discussion going for severe storm threat over Ern AK, N+Wrn MS and SWrn TN:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1211 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AND WRN MS...FAR ERN AR...SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051811Z - 051945Z

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS

WITH TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...AND A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE

NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE WARM

SECTOR WITH 63-66 F DEWPOINTS COMMON. SOME CAPPING REMAINS

ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUED HEATING AND DEEPENING OF

THE MOIST BL WILL ERODE CAP FROM BELOW.

OVERALL...FORCING IS RATHER UNFOCUSED IN THE FREE WARM SECTOR.

HOWEVER...DEEPENING LINES OF CU...WITH CONTINUED

DESTABILIZATION...MAY RESULT IN A FEW LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS LEADING

TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE

FOR STORM ROTATION...THUS ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE

TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

Think I will stick west of the Mississippi River and keep to the I-40 and Hwy 79 corridor between Little Rock and Memphis and maybe the I-55 upto the MO bootheel

[Paul Sherman]

Couple of Tornado Watch Boxes up already. Not going to change my Chase Target which was the Missouri Bootheel as this looks like taking a possible Hit!

Potty has all the links for Tn & Kentucky and also Missouri so when it all kicks off in the next few hours we should have some good links.

Paul Sherman

[Roger J Smith]

Current radar (will update) for Arkansas:

http://www.weatherimages.org/radar/klzk.shtml

Somewhat heavier activity at present to the north of this image in south central MO, but over time I think this is the frame that will become most active. Temp/dp at LIT is 22/18 with partly cloudy weather across most of Arkansas. Front is quite sharply defined and getting stronger now. I'm expecting a raft of severe storms from s.e. MO across AR into nw LA and e TX later today, probably around 23z for the peak.

[Nick F]

Got my eyes on this discrete warm sector tornado warned cell, possibly supercell, heading NE out of LA into SWern AK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

217 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

WEST CENTRAL OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

EASTERN UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 217 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES SOUTH

OF FARMERVILLE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF RUSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

JUST SOUTHEAST OF FARMERVILLE BY 235 PM CST...

Think there'll be better cells popping up further southwest than this one which will tend to weaken the Nern cells,

[Roger J Smith]

Keep clicking on the black bar at the top of the image in Nick's post, and it will update -- and you'll see the main front coming into view west of Tyler TX, looking quite active already, hail reported and 55 mph gusts in the DFW area, but just really getting started now. This is the big daddy of the bunch, I think, and it will move rapidly now towards Texarkana and into south central Arkansas and northern LA.

[Nick F]

Yes, quite an impressive squall line further west into NW Texas, might aswell put up the image for there aswell:

Has the advantage of some clear skies nearby too:

[pottyprof]

Can confirm some severe storms over Kansas during their morning with some fair sized hail thrown in..

All the links should be on here for the chase today!!

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36945

[NL]

Is this the first nado of the day??

Statement as of 3:07 PM CST on February 05, 2008

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 330 PM CST for Ashley

County... and northwestern Morehouse Parish...

At 307 PM CST... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking

a tornado. This tornado was located 6 miles west of Beekman... or

about 12 miles south of Crossett... moving northeast at 50 mph.

In addition... hail to the size of baseballs and damaging

straight-line winds are possible with this storm.

The tornado will be near...

pass near Berlin by 320 PM CST.

[Nick F]

PDS isssued for parts of AK and Nern LA:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0036.html

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY FROM

NE TX INTO WRN AR...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A

PRE-FRONTAL BAND NEAR MLU IN NRN LA. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM LZK AND SHV

SHOW THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED FROM BELOW VIA ASCENT...AND THIS

TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LEAD

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM NE TX/ERN OK TOWARD AR. THE

COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN

THE MID 60S AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 400

M2/S2/ WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO

EARLY TONIGHT.

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/streamaudio.html#livestream

Live Streaming Audio for all areas, effectively the NOAA Weather Radio on your Pluter.

Am listening to Little Rock (Ar) at the moment, just heard a Tornado Warning come through just now :lol: