Virtual Storm Chase 2

[NL]

NOAA have another 'slight' risk agan today affecting lower/mid Missouri Ohio area, at present it dos'nt

look as serious as yesterday with cape values not exceeding 500J/kg http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[NL]

Tornadoes warnings

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

NORTHERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

and

CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTHEASTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

In the last 3 hours 5 tornadoes have been reported.

Latest radar/ warnings and watches.

[Nick F]

Another severe convective weather event in the making tomorrow for SE US Gulf States this time, strong WAA out of Gulf ahead of cold front will provide warm moist air - forcing likely from slow moving cold front and also right entrance of strong jet streak - where upper winds diverge causing lift:

SPC forecast: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1110 AM CST WED JAN 09 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE

TN VALLEY...

...GULF STATES TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG SPEED MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL

ADVANCE ACROSS THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL DEMAND RAPID LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CORRECTIONS AND

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF

STATES...NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. LATE

MORNING BUOY DATA INDICATES SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70F JUST

OFFSHORE...SOUTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED FROM

THE FL PANHANDLE...SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. LATE DAY1

SWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM THE SABINE

RIVER OF TX/LA INTO MIDDLE TN. LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING

THE PERIOD WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 90KT EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO THE

OH VALLEY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...STRONG FORCING WILL BE OBSERVED ALONG

ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND DEEP CONVECTION WILL EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN

MARGINAL LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AT

THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN AXIS OF SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COULD

DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY MID DAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION STRONGLY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL

FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...HOWEVER SUCH STRONG FORCING ALONG COLD

FRONT MAY ACTUALLY LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE SW-NE ORIENTED SQUALL LINE.

IF A SQUALL LINE DOES INDEED DEVELOP...AS IT APPEARS IT

WILL...SUPERCELLS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINEAR MCS

THAT SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING

WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF BOW ECHOES FORM. EVEN SO...STRONG SHEAR DOES

SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONG/SEVERE SQUALL

LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES AS COLD FRONT SURGES

INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/GA/FL PANHANDLE BY 11/12Z. ANY STORMS

THAT FORM DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO SO WITHIN A VERY

WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE APPEARS

EXTREMELY LIMITED DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 01/09/2008

[Nick F]

Would you believe it??!! A MODERATE risk in early January: over the Gulf States today, maybe they are covering their backs after the other day's tornado outbreak. Soon one will be able to go chasing all year round somewhere in the CONUS :lol: .

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1003 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF EASTERN MS...NORTHERN

AND CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LA EWD TO FL

PANHANDLE NWD TO KY...

POTENT S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD TO ACROSS OH

VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD AS 100KT 500MB WIND MAX RED RIVER VALLEY SRN

OK MOVES TO MO BOOTHEEL BY THIS EVENING.

SURFACE LOW SWRN MO ATTM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO LOWER OH VALLEY THIS

EVENING AS 50-60KT LLJ IS RAPIDLY INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND

INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS LOWER MS INTO TN VALLEYS.

SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY

STRETCHES SWWD THRU SRN AR INTO ERN TX. IN EARLIER OUTLOOKS THE

PRIMARY LIMITATION FOR A TORNADO THREAT WAS HOW MUCH HEATING AND

CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE

DEFICIENT IN SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. CURRENT

OBSERVATIONS AND BREAKS NOTED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORT

TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL AL AND MID 60S

MIDDLE TN. THUS MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY

MID AFTERNOON NWD TO CENTRAL AL ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH.

WHILE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG ASCENT WRN

TN INTO MS...MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON

EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MID TN. LOW

LEVEL SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH APPROACH OF 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX

SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A

POSSIBILITY OF STRONG /LONG TRACK TORNADOES IF DISCRETE STORMS

DEVELOP. DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INTO SRN MS AND THESE

SHOULD PERSIST WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THEY TRACK NEWD.

A MORE LINER MODE SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY WITH

ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS AL INTO NWRN GA.

..HALES.. 01/10/2008

[Nick F]

The convective line ahead of the cold front is already in full swing, stretching NE from SW Lousiana - all the way up to Nern Kentucky:

Plenty of bow echoes and hook segments to cells withing the band of ppn:

Already been reports of tornadoes over Mississipi and Alabama, plenty of warnings have been issued:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

http://www.weather.gov/view/national.php?prodtype=tornado

[Gorky]

I had this week off. I should have gone chasing! :lol:

[Nick F]

I had this week off. I should have gone chasing! :lol:

Indeed, I'm sure I would too - bet flights are fairly cheap atm! Not too sure about the chase terrain over the Gulf States though, lots of trees comes to mind ...

[Nick F]

Getting quite serious over MS, TN and AL, numerous reports of tornadoes touching down in MS in particular:

Caledonia [Lowndes Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TORNADO at 02:13 PM CST -- *** 3 inj *** elementary school destroyed, 3 kids injured, trees and power lines down.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0142 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MS/SERN LA/WRN AL/PARTS OF SRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16...17...

VALID 101942Z - 102115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 16...17...CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WIDESPREAD/ONGOING ACROSS WW 16 AND

PORTIONS OF WW 17 ATTM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS MULTIPLE SEVERE STORMS AND SEVERAL

SUPERCELLS ONGOING ATTM...MOVING GENERALLY NEWD. MOST

SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND

VICINITY ATTM...WHERE SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY-SHEARED

ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE. OTHER SEVERE STORMS EXTEND SWWD INTO

SWRN LA...AND NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO SWRN KY. THREAT WILL

CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE

TN AND INTO MUCH OF AL.

..GOSS.. 01/10/2008

Could be quite nasty after dark too, more particularly for TN and AL as the convective line shifts further northeast.

[Nick F]

Things seem to have calmed down a bit recently but still a tornado warning out for Central Alabama:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

443 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

EAST CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 439 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BURNWELL...

OR NEAR CORDOVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

SUMITON AND SIPSEY BY 450 PM CST...

PARTRIDGE CROSSROADS BY 455 PM CST...

ARKADELPHIA BY 500 PM CST...

SMOKE RISE AND WARRIOR BY 505 PM CST...

HAYDEN...BLOUNT SPRINGS AND TRAFFORD BY 510 PM CST...

MT OLIVE BY 515 PM CST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT

TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates nick, shame about the kids.

[Nick F]

Looking back to the Thursday 10th - when SPC forecast a MDT risk - there were 35 tornado reports in the end:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080110_rpts.html

There was an EF3 at Wyndham Springs, Tuscaloosa County, AL:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_ev...01_10/index.php

EF2 in Wayne County, TN:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OHXPNSOHX

EF1 in Noxubee County, MS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/events/2008/Jan10/index.php

[Paul Sherman]

Pretty active Start to 2008 Nick !!

But when Tornadoes are breaking out in the South East Conus it is not out of the ordinary as opposed to Wisconsin and Illinois. And the South East's main Tornado Season is in fact January and February.

Paul S

[Cookie]

thanks for proving those interesting links nick f

[Nick F]

Fascinates me when SPC produce a risk area for more unusual locations - I don't really associate the climate of southern California with severe thunderstorms - even as a very occasional event, but SPC have a Slight risk over part of this area, including Los Angeles basin:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Obviously LA area would be the last place to want to storm chase, though the lower California valley to the north beneath the Sierra Nevada it maybe just about possible.

[dogs32]

Nick when does the Tornadoes start picking up in the pan handle....Is it mainly April.....I mean can things start to get going in March is this not rare..

When to start watching the radars of the US

Edited January 27, 2008 by dogs32

[Nick F]

April is usually when the tornado season kicks-off over the Plains in ernest, though last year it started quite early in March I recall in the south towards the gulf states. April was a pretty active month in 2007, particularly early on when there was a tornado outbreak in N central and NW Texas on the 13th:

(4/13/07) -- Two tornadoes ravaged parts of northwest and north central Texas Friday. Hardest hit was the area near Seymour, about 120 miles northwest of Fort Worth, and the Fort Worth suburbs of Haltom City and Bedford. The storms formed ahead of a powerful Pacific front that emerged from the Rocky Mountains Friday morning, prompting SPC to put Texas in a rare high risk area.

The first isolated storm developed north of Abilene and moved across Seymour around 3 p.m. CDT before weakening in cooler air. During its hour-long romp it brought baseball-sized hail and torrential rain to the U.S. 277 corridor, causing widespread damage to vehicles in Seymour and destroying skylights at the hospital. Further west, a squall line quickly formed and moved east to Fort Worth. No major severe weather was reported until about 6 p.m. when a cell embedded in the squall line rapidly strengthened in Tarrant County. This cell produced a tornado near Haltom City along with hail and high winds as it moved along US 183 through the mid cities, across the Mockingbird area of Dallas, and into southern Garland where it strengthened again. Other supercells developed elsewhere in Texas. A large supercell with a tornadic circulation threatened parts of southwest San Antonio around 9 p.m.

The weather system was blamed for two deaths, both in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. In Haltom City northeast of Fort Worth, a man was killed at a lumber yard after a pile of wood fell on top of him. An Irving police officer died after his patrol car slid off a rain-slick highway and hit a light pole. Five injuries were reported at a Fort Worth store whose windows blew out.

[dogs32]

thanks..I thought it was April...like you say it can be earlier though....

I was looking at all the pics you lot taken last year...them mamatus clouds and the wall clouds looked terrifying....must of been exciting and scarey at the same time

I bett everyone counting down the days

Edited January 27, 2008 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Make that the 2nd Moderate Risk of January.

This one nearly slipped by un-noticed. Was a Text risk yesterday, Upgraded overnight to a Slight and Now a Moderate!

From the SPC - 1 Tornado Reported So Far

Paul S

[WhiteFox]

Make that the 2nd Moderate Risk of January.

This one nearly slipped by un-noticed. Was a Text risk yesterday, Upgraded overnight to a Slight and Now a Moderate!

From the SPC - 1 Tornado Reported So Far

Paul S

Severe thunderstorm warnings posted for 25 counties at the same time for Indiana. Very well developed squall line and some of the temperature swings are wild behind the front! St. Louis hit a high of 73oF today and currently stands at 28oF. That's the Midwest for ya!

[Cookie]

I hope nothing interesting happens state side for the rest week, got enough to keep an eye on this side of the pond :lol:

[Roger J Smith]

So far today, would describe the cold front as active but sub-tornadic in general, some very strong wind gusts in AR, TN, KY and IL moving east towards IN, generally 60-70 mph at peak. This system lacks one critical component, inflow of very moist Gulf air is limited, dew points generally 12-14 C ahead of the front. Could see one or two tornadoes later though.

As to the season, March to June is probably the peak of the season, but January and February have had their share of killer storms in the past, especially later in February. Some of the biggest storms in terms of overall damage and casualties have been in March in the past, notably in 1925 when the largest single tornado on record developed and killed 700 people in a number of towns across IL and IN on the 18th. Another very strong tornado outbreak was in early April of 1974 on the 3rd-4th. May and June are better chase months because of warmer weather, better visibility of the severe storms, longer daylight and more storms in the open country of the western plains states. Most of the major March or April storms seem to be closer to the Mississippi valley where chasing is more difficult.

To put that 1925 storm into perspective, it was like the Greensburg tornado last May, only it lasted four hours and went across two states and a bit of two others, and it hit much larger towns with populations of 10,000 or more. :lol:

[NL]

Two reported tornadoes, one unconfirmed and the other a 'possible' brief touchdown, plenty of large hail.

One man in Illinois was treat for a cut to his forehead caused from 1" hail..

No virtual chasing today but slight risk tomorrow for the far south gulf

basin/ Carolina's.

[NL]

Slight risk for today.

Tornado watch issued.

[NL]

Slight risk for tomorrow

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Nick F]

Going to be an action-packed next three days looking at the SPC convective outlooks, SLIGHT today over the eastern plains MODERATE risk near and just east of the Mississippi tomorrow, then A SLIGHT for a similar area on Wednesday:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/