Virtual Storm Chase 2

[Paul Sherman]

Pretty amazing June 07 for the US, They have had at least a slight risk for 21 straight days in June now, today sees a MODERATE Before another 7 days of at least slight risks, this could even go through the whole month. An amazing spring season in the Plains.

Paul S

[NL]

Moderate risk over Iowa, Illinois, but tornado watch over Nebraska....

[pottyprof]

What an amazing year.. You sort of get the feeling that weather patterns are trying to reset themselves. Still no signs that more destructive tornadoes are on the increase despite the unfortunate destruction of Greensburg. These things happen once in a while.. It's just unfortunate.

Can't believe the length of the season though..

[Paul Sherman]

7 straight days of risks over Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma etc, they have already has 2 Slights this week, amazing spell of weather considering this is the Middle Of July, will be interesting to see how many Nado's they get, biggest threat today seems destruction to property from Hail Bombing Supercells!!

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Been a mighty long time since I have seen one of these, but a pretty good chance for some Nado's today across Western Kansas and Colorado, nice Chase Country, would have chosen a Target along the I70 Interstate probably near to Burlington.

Hope Eric Nguymen is up there watching this one. If you did not know Eric Passed away last week at the age of 29 after Comitting Suicide, this guy was not just a Chaser but an awesome Photographer as well,his was the iconic picture of the Mulvane Tornado with the Rainbow in the same shot, I had the pleasure of meeting him on his last ever chase on 6th June in Nebraska.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 672

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO

WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

BURLINGTON COLORADO TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY

KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM

SECTOR /S OF A WARM FRONT S OF I-70/ AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM

INTO THE 80S AND REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. EXPECT THE THREAT

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE

INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR

OF 35-50 KT...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON

ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE

MAXIMIZED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

It's been a very interesting year for these setups Paul. I'll get me google thingy out...

[Paul Sherman]

Google away Are we already in Training Mode for next year........................surely Not!!

Think the chances are getting slimmer at the moment, the initial storms that fired at 7z were the ones that warranted the Tornado Watch Box, but as the Warm Front moves Northwards it depends on how the outflow boundary reacts, but with temps up in the 80's and enough low level shear, anything can happen i suppose. Probably a Large Hailer event me thinks.

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Well here's the map..

Not sure what to make of that warning though... Still early I suppose.

Sorry Paul.. missed your post.. Looked like we were at it together...

Some fairly high cloud tops looking at the temps..

I wouldn't be surprised if the watch was to move further east..

Current meso discussion..

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0602 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...NE CO...SW NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 672...

VALID 192302Z - 200030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 672 CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW KS

SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NNWWD WITH TIME. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NE CO AND SW

NEB...THE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SW

KS EXTENDING NWWD INTO ERN CO. AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS

LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD INTO FAR SW

NEB AND FAR NE CO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F. INSTABILITY IS

MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND THIS SHOULD BE THE FAVORED

LOCATION FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG IN THIS AREA AND SUPERCELLS WILL STILL BE

POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS ON RADAR. MID-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER TO THE WEST AND IF A SUPERCELL CAN

ORGANIZE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR.

..BROYLES.. 09/19/2007

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Hope Eric Nguymen is up there watching this one. If you did not know Eric Passed away last week at the age of 29 after Comitting Suicide, this guy was not just a Chaser but an awesome Photographer as well,his was the iconic picture of the Mulvane Tornado with the Rainbow in the same shot, I had the pleasure of meeting him on his last ever chase on 6th June in Nebraska.

http://www.ericnguyengathering.com/

http://www.mesoscale.ws/biography/family.htm

http://www.mesoscale.ws/biography/

Edited September 19, 2007 by *Stormforce~beka*

[Paul Sherman]

Good shot at some Tornadoes today in parts of OK/KS/MS/IO/NE

Slight Risk and a huge Squall line has set up already, A Tornado Watch box has just been put up ahead and North East of the Squall Line atm, clearing skies and agitated CU Field taking shape.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

305 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. STORM SPOTTERS NEAR PERRY AND WILLIAMSTOWN IN SOUTHEAST

JEFFERSON COUNTY RECENTLY REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED

6 MILES WEST OF TONGANOXIE...AND RACING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

LANSING BY 320 PM CDT.

LEAVENWORTH BY 325 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF JARBALO AND FAIRMOUNT ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...

PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Paul Sherman

**Just need Potty to upload the 300 mile squall line radar - LOL

[pottyprof]

Amazing.. What a season..

[Nick F]

I've been looking at the SPC forecasts most days over the last month, and most of the time out to day2 there have been SLGT risks somewhere over the mid-West. Certainly been a long storm season this year.

[Paul Sherman]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

326 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MECKLING...

OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF VERMILLION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

RURAL CLAY COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM CDT

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY

ISSUED FOR THE WARNED AREA.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE

COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR

NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

Paul S

[pottyprof]

That's here then...

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for those Potty, they are fantastic!!

And to put into perspective from the Kansas Squall line, that is about 307 miles long

[pottyprof]

Got the sat pic too..

[Paul Sherman]

You can really see the trailing Cold Front from that Sat Pic Pots. Goes all the way down to South West Oklahoma.

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Super Paul innit??

I did have the colour IR but lost it.. Purple and even blue on the Cloud tops so some very high tops

[Nick F]

I think the cold front goes as far SW as SE New Mexico Paul, though the active part stretches NE of N Central OK where the tail thins:

[Paul Sherman]

That is absurd Nick. Got to be about 750 miles. The action is near the Triple Point on the 4 corners of Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri though. Might get some tail end action down in Oklahoma though as more Instability is down there I would guess.

And i thought Training would start in March 2008 LOL

Paul S

[Nick F]

Yes, strongest instability/CAPE (1000-2000 j/kg SBCAPE) is suggested over much of OK SE of the cold front and over the far SE of Kansas too:

This overlayed by some fairly strong deep layer shear - upto 50kts:

[mettalfabrik]

just for interest heres the last 24h metars from S Dakota

sorry did,nt work to well

Edited September 30, 2007 by blackdown

[Nick F]

Another SLGT risk today over the mid-west, from Oklahoma upto Iowa:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Current sfc progs shows short-waves mentioned ahead of the frontal boundary triggering lines of storms,

upto 70kts deep layer shear on hourly mesoscale analysis suggests linear bowing multicells or supercells possible - low level shear maybe strong enough for tornadoes:

... upto 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE over OK to tap into:

LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW TSTMS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING

ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ABOVEMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND FROM WRN MO

INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY COUPLED WITH

DECREASING STABILITY IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO

SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF MO SWWD INTO OK.

REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE

STRONGEST LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDES INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT

LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH OF

300-400 M2 PER S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KT/...WITH A

GENERAL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THESE VALUES SWWD THROUGH

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WHILE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY

BE LINEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING OR SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES IN

ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

000

WUUS54 KTSA 022007

SVRTSA

OKC113-022045-

/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0190.071002T2008Z-071002T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

308 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS

TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIGHEART...

MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIGHEART AND

HULAH.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3681 9600 3683 9647 3700 9643

TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 264DEG 31KT 3692 9633

$$

I think somewhere over North Central or Central OK would be a good spot later to catch a supercell with perhaps a tornado.

[pottyprof]

Radar and sat picture

Cloud temps..

Current warnings..

[Nick F]

Two distinct lines of convection visible over SErn KS and Nern OK ... most Nerly must be the cold front and further SE the main area from shortwave troughs creating lift in the warm moist air.

Looks rather messy over MO for chasing, think SE KS or N OK probably best target areas for tail end action IMO - also where highest CAPE and shear is progged.