July CET

[shuggee]

Here's a lovely fresh thread so that we can all keep on-topic

14.2C: Mike W

15.5C: Jim AFCB

15.6C: noggin

15.7C: Snowyowl9

15.8C: shuggee

15.9C: Beng

16.0C: fishdude

16.0C: ghrud

16.1C: Stephen Prudence

16.1C: VillagePlank

16.2C: Terminal Moraine

16.3C: Kentish Man

16.4C: DR Hosking

16.4C: cheeky monkey

16.4C: The underwriter

16.5C: Gavin P

16.5C: Stormchaser1

16.5C: The calm before the Storm

16.6C: Summer of 95

16.6C: osmposm

16.7C: Damianslaw

16.7C: Snowray

16.8C: Snowfluff

16.8C: Mr Maunder

16.8C: Stargazer

16.8C: acbrixton

16.9C: snowmaiden

16.9C: S4lancia

16.9C: mk13

16.9C: Stu London

16.9C: Thundery wintry showers

16.9C: vizzy2004

16.9C: Geordiesnow

16.9C: Osbourne One-Nil

17.0C: Don

17.0C: iceberg

17.0C: summer blizzard

17.0C: Paul Carfoot

17.0C: Red Raven

17.1C: Anti - Mild

17.1C: JohnAcc

17.2C: Mr Data

17.2C: mark bayley

17.2C: HighPressure

17.3C: Tamara G

17.3C: Persian Paladin

17.3C: Duncan McAllister

17.3C: phil n.warks

17.3C: SNOW-MAN2006

17.4C: windswept

17.4C: David Snow

17.4C: Mark H

17.4C: Joneseye

17.4C: kold weather

17.4C: Mammatus

17.5C: sundog

17.5C: Norrance

17.5C: Somerset Squall

17.5C: WBSH

17.6C: eddie

17.6C: Great Plum

17.7C: Optimus Prime

17.7C: Calrissian

17.7C: Blast From the Past

17.7C: West is Best

17.7C: Stratos Ferric

17.7C: Glacier Point

17.8C: SteveB

17.8C: reef

17.9C: The PIT

17.9C: Ukmoose

17.9C: Rollo

17.9C: JACKONE

17.9C: Paul B

18.0C: Optimus Prime

18.1C: The Penguin

18.2C: magpie

18.3C: parmenides3

18.4C: Bessy

19.0C: Roger J Smith

20.0C: Craig Evans

22.0C: tinybill

Moose

[Joneseye]

Not a lot to go on at the minute... other than the Net-Weather Tracker:

The current N-W UK tracker figure for July 2007 is: 15.19°C

(difference from average July CET is -1.31°C)

With no signs of anything warm on the horizon in the model output I am starting to think I may be way out this month...

Edit - sorry Stu noticed that Hadley is significantly higher at 16.6 ish

[DR Hosking]

Hadley now showing 16 degrees to the 3rd July. Sounds about right, cant see it changing much after today (maybe falling further) plus the days ahead look very similar to what we are having temperature wise. So wouldn't be supprised if were on 16 degrees or there abouts in a weeks time, probably even cooler rather than warmer.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nicely put Tamara....considering

July starting well below average......mmm interesting. Average to below looks the projected set up too...scratches head. I must admit waiting for the bus this morning and it was very autumnal...t-shirt defo not enough!

BFTP

[VillagePlank]

I think that July will continue to be the 7th month in the year, the month after my birthday and the month closer to next XMas than June.

What do you think?

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Appalling synoptics don't necessarily equal cold weather. Recent weather gives an illusion of chill even though temps have not been below average. The July pattern continued over from the last week of June is a better test of the ability for poor synoptics (ie atlantic wind and rain) to produce an average or below average month. We have lost the continental influences of the first two thirds of June. But having said this, the current pattern isn't going to produce the low overnight minima which would change the established profile pattern of the monthly CET.

In contrast to poor or 'appalling' synoptics, what is required is a settled set-up such as high pressure situated close to or better still just to the west/north west of the UK which would allow a clean cool airstream with low dewpoints without absorbing too much cloud in its circulation. In this way night time temps would drop much lower than we are used to and impact much more on the CET irrespective of day-time temps probably reaching similar or in sheltered areas possibly a little hgher than currently/recently.

Such a summer set-up is perfectly feasible, irrespective of background warming - and would put a different perspective on the ability of being able to achieve a lower than average CET. ... I think we have to stay open minded to this probably happening one day and producing some very different results from what we have grown accustomed to seeing. It doesn't change the fact that there is a warming trend - but it would change some perspectives as to what is and isn't achievable.

Tamara

So, Tamara, you seem to have:

1 - conceded that we can judge whether "cool" synoptics still deliver cool weather based on the next week or so. The answer seems to be "no they don't";

2 - stated that if we get polar air it will feel cold: yes it will, quel surprise! The fact is it never happens;

3 - have asserted that cold synoptics will make us believe that we can still get cold; this has never been disputed, it's just that sustained cold does not happen any more.

I know you don't like certain of us saying it, but the persistent "if only", "I think", "I believe" etc, is a poor substitute for cold actually ever happening in any sustained way. The fact is that (continuing mild) reality says that we're increasingly whistling in the wind on this one.

Yes, better synoptics might change things: so might winning the lottery. Neither are very likely.

[VillagePlank]

Yes, better synoptics might change things: so might winning the lottery. Neither are very likely.

Can I infer that you believe a below average anything is equivalent to 14,000,000:1, then?

[Stu_London]

Can I infer that you believe a below average anything is equivalent to 14,000,000:1, then?

maybe he meant 3 numbers and a £10 win

[Optimus Prime]

My 18.0c looks pretty poor at the moment. According to Hadley the mean maximum temperature is 1.2c below average to the 3rd. Minima is 2.0c above so the minima is slowly dropping.

[West is Best]

Nicely put Tamara....considering

Do you really really think that? Or are you just giving your general appui ? I ask because apart from one paragraph it had nothing to do with the points I made, which is why there's no point my responding to it. But, hey, cold lovers of the world unite (even if they are talking piddle).

From a statistical-metereological point of view you manifestly didn't just need a polar northerly in the period 1971-2000 to produce a below average July. The mean will contain a given number of months below and a given number above. If you look at the Julys on the CET list that is indeed the case. The range is from 14.7C to 18.7C, with the mean at 16.5C.

A variety of synoptic conditions produced below average months: westerlies, north-westerlies and possibly the type of anti-cyclonic to which Tamara refers (about which more anon). What Steve Murr has unwittingly acknowledged is that nowadays you do indeed seem to need something akin to a polar northerly to produce a below average July against the 30 year mean. I'm not totally sure we're quite there yet. As recently as 2004 a westerly dominated July produced a below average month. July 2002 was also below the 30 year average, and was also dominated by westerlies. The last predominantly northerly July was in 2000, which was also below average. What was particularly curious was the northerly-dominated August 2006 - the most northerly of the last 130 years and yet which was only average.

Tamara's post contained the comment about a static anticyclone anchored to the north-west of the UK giving a cool set up. I mostly agree with this, but it becomes a fine line between that and a true northerly feed under cloud (especially if the cloud is feeding around the west side of the hp). The HP has to be asbolutely static for that to work. If the HP eventually slips across us the temps gradually rise even at night.

I think the jury is out on this month. Hadley seems to suggest we're about average at the moment, but the NW tracker is well below.

[West is Best]

I posted constructively in my own way, and stick by it. It is unfortunate if it doesn't meet a list of your requirements - but that is certainly not, nor should be, my concern.

Tamara

You claimed it was a response to my post. It wasn't. I too have little concern, but at least if you say you're responding to it do so. I tried to make some carefully argued points about the 1971-2000 mean and associated synoptics, including in the post-2000 period. You went off on your usual tangent, which is fine, but please don't claim it responded to my points.

I still think the jury is out on this month. If it doesn't go below average with this set up it will be another nail in the cold coffin (which I certainly do not celebrate). We had westerly Julys in 2002 and 2004 - both of which went below average. Given just how westerly this one is at the moment (howling Atlantic gale here this afternoon!) we really should go below average, under the old rules of the game.

[Stu_London]

Manley figures to 3/7/07

15.7C (0.0C)

Rainfall - 17.9mm (325%)

Sunshine - 10.2hr (52%)

A warm night on the 1st seems to have skewed the figures for Manley and Hadley - everything since then is below average.

Might help to answer some of the arguments above (but I doubt it)

Thanks to P Eden for data

[summer blizzard]

I have just had a look at the latest data, and i expect the Manley CET to be in the 15.2C-15.4C range for the period 1-10th.

[Kentish Man]

It is interesting Manley is currently 0.3C below Hadley as that is the exact opposite of June where Hadley finished on 15.1C and Manley on 15.4C. I know it is very early days of the month but nevertheless it does suggest perhaps in westerly setups Manley fares worse than Hadley while in easterly setups such as June the opposite seems to be the case.

As regards July, the CET figures have been sliding each day and it is fairly evident if the current synoptics persisted to the end of the month it would be below average. That of course is a big call to make and it may be a warmer, more settled spell before months end will redress the balance.

PS Optimus Prime you appear to have two entries this month ie 17.7C and 18.0C

[kold weather]

July 2004 was more northerly based then anything that is progged right now West, the mean wind probably was closer to a NW wind then westerly, at least in the first 15 days of the month. July 2002 also had a stronger northerly element to it then this month in its first 10 days so to say what you've just said isn't really totally fair West though it is a closer match so far this month and isn't that different.

The type of set-up that we currently have should give pretty much exactly average CET given mins should stil lbe kept up fairly well by a more pure westerly/WNW/WSW type flow rather then the NW type flow in the two July's you mention. IF we ended up with a CET still over 0.7C above average then I'll be more worried...but don't be surprise dif it does come in higher then the two July's you mentioned...there is just not the type NW influence that those two years had, there has been a little in the way of NW so far but not enough to compare yet.

Comprasion momnths should be July 97 and 82, as the June was very similar to this one in terms of the synoptics, rainfall amounts and importantly the temps, both had CET's very close to average. I also think because theyare quite close we should watch this moth and compare it to 2002, there is similarties so far.

By the way worth noting West, the 12z GFS mean wind direction is actually very close to a SW airflow, there is one day which is WNW but thats about it.

Still overall looks like the airflow is gonig to be very westerly, i'll say now it could be one of the top 15 most westerly July's ever IMO. If we do come in decently above average again then it'll be almost certainly because of those overnight mins again.

[The Eagle]

Id personally go for somewhere ending near 16.3C - the reason for that would be the mild start but it has coolded off considerably since and no extreme of warm weather looks likely.

[Stu_London]

It is interesting Manley is currently 0.3C below Hadley as that is the exact opposite of June where Hadley finished on 15.1C and Manley on 15.4C. I know it is very early days of the month but nevertheless it does suggest perhaps in westerly setups Manley fares worse than Hadley while in easterly setups such as June the opposite seems to be the case.

As regards July, the CET figures have been sliding each day and it is fairly evident if the current synoptics persisted to the end of the month it would be below average. That of course is a big call to make and it may be a warmer, more settled spell before months end will redress the balance.

PS Optimus Prime you appear to have two entries this month ie 17.7C and 18.0C

I know one of Philip's Eden's biggest gripes with Hadley is that a coastal station is used. I would have thought that would be very significant in an easterly versus westerly comparison

With some colder minimas towards the weekend, we may even dip below 15.0C which, given the below average to average set up leaves a lot of ground to be made up later in the month, just to get to average.

Here is one for Mr Data - what is the wettest May-July period ever and where does 2007 stand in that list already!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Do you really really think that? Or are you just giving your general appui ? I ask because apart from one paragraph it had nothing to do with the points I made, which is why there's no point my responding to it. But, hey, cold lovers of the world unite (even if they are talking piddle).

From a statistical-metereological point of view you manifestly didn't just need a polar northerly in the period 1971-2000 to produce a below average July. The mean will contain a given number of months below and a given number above. If you look at the Julys on the CET list that is indeed the case. The range is from 14.7C to 18.7C, with the mean at 16.5C.

A variety of synoptic conditions produced below average months: westerlies, north-westerlies and possibly the type of anti-cyclonic to which Tamara refers (about which more anon). What Steve Murr has unwittingly acknowledged is that nowadays you do indeed seem to need something akin to a polar northerly to produce a below average July against the 30 year mean. I'm not totally sure we're quite there yet. As recently as 2004 a westerly dominated July produced a below average month. July 2002 was also below the 30 year average, and was also dominated by westerlies. The last predominantly northerly July was in 2000, which was also below average. What was particularly curious was the northerly-dominated August 2006 - the most northerly of the last 130 years and yet which was only average.

Tamara's post contained the comment about a static anticyclone anchored to the north-west of the UK giving a cool set up. I mostly agree with this, but it becomes a fine line between that and a true northerly feed under cloud (especially if the cloud is feeding around the west side of the hp). The HP has to be asbolutely static for that to work. If the HP eventually slips across us the temps gradually rise even at night.

I think the jury is out on this month. Hadley seems to suggest we're about average at the moment, but the NW tracker is well below.

West

Put it this way...you are putting too much emphasis on the UK....globally in a meteorological sense I think we are small coal. The cold sources clearly exist...we just ain't tapped into them. I am as amazed by how last year in an allegedly spiralling out of control warming world with sheer perfection synoptics how certain records still stand after summer 06.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Comprasion momnths should be July 97 and 82, as the June was very similar to this one in terms of the synoptics, rainfall amounts and importantly the temps, both had CET's very close to average. I also think because theyare quite close we should watch this month and compare it to 2002, there is similarties so far.

Still overall looks like the airflow is going to be very westerly, i'll say now it could be one of the top 15 most westerly July's ever IMO. If we do come in decently above average again then it'll be almost certainly because of those overnight mins again.

I hav'nt had a chance to look at 1982 or 1997, but 2002 does like quite similar to this month and what is forecast.

Aside from an easterly spell, i also expect a very westerly month, though in the top 30% as oposed to the top 15.

[West is Best]

West

Put it this way...you are putting too much emphasis on the UK....globally in a meteorological sense I think we are small coal. The cold sources clearly exist...we just ain't tapped into them. I am as amazed by how last year in an allegedly spiralling out of control warming world with sheer perfection synoptics how certain records still stand after summer 06.

BFTP

There's a lot of truth in your first sentence Fred and I agree. I wonder if we should have more on global temps on NW - and I mean by that not just the worthy reports from the likes of Carinthian, but some really detailed actual measurements (surface and air) akin to what we have on SSTs. It seems to me to be a slight weak link in the whole teleconnection chain. I and others have suggested that what we see in the CET is an outturn of what we are seeing globally. But I do agree with you in many ways, and there's a lot of flabbiness in the arguments, and lack of proof.

In fact, one of my bugbears right now is that whenever some sort of wild weather occurs it's immediately attributed to climate change, as if we've never had freak weather before. Ultimately if GW is occuring (as I believe) it does the cause of raising the issue no good at all to have such carefless and unscientific ideas bandied around. We need more proof, for which we need facts.

KW - Interesting to see your thoughts. We'll see how it pans out, but at the moment I do think we're going to be close to the flow of 2002 by the time this month is through. It's a very interesting month this one in lots of ways.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Prediction: similar pattern to June but with cooler SSTs (negative anomalies) we will get -0.5C.below CET instead of +1.5C above CET.

Interesting month.

[Stratos Ferric]

Can I infer that you believe a below average anything is equivalent to 14,000,000:1, then?

It would be flawed inductive logic. I didn't say the odds were the same, just that neither was very likely. Like I always say, I pick my words carefully, hopefully to be read carefully too.

There is no robust argument against the fact that cold weather is far less prevalent, and therefore less likely, than it used to be. Even Tamara, in her more progressive moments, concedes this much.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

With some colder minimas towards the weekend, we may even dip below 15.0C which, given the below average to average set up leaves a lot of ground to be made up later in the month, just to get to average.

...

Not really, after only five or six days. If we were twenty days in, maybe. That said, with things resolutely as they are, that much cannot be ruled out. Can;t say I see anything desperately cold ahead of the w/e though: earlier in the week GFS was progging 2-3C in the Welsh Marches, but as at the end of last month in a similar projected set-up, that was modelling silliness in the extreme. Even in conditions favourable to cold at this time of year, anything below 7-8 (away from frost hollows and favoured locations) is very unusual.

[shuggee]

Not really, after only five or six days. If we were twenty days in, maybe. That said, with things resolutely as they are, that much cannot be ruled out. Can;t say I see anything desperately cold ahead of the w/e though: earlier in the week GFS was progging 2-3C in the Welsh Marches, but as at the end of last month in a similar projected set-up, that was modelling silliness in the extreme. Even in conditions favourable to cold at this time of year, anything below 7-8 (away from frost hollows and favoured locations) is very unusual.

I've been thinking (uh-oh) for a while about the last point in your post SF regarding the expected low temps and want to play a bit of a 'Devils Advocate'. How do we know that 2-3ºC weren't widespread in many locations across the Welsh Marches in that period? Not every field has a thermometer in it and those few towns and villages (in proportion to the many) that do record and publish the temps might record distorted coolness through UHI effect. The forecast temp maps don't predict the temps just for the areas that record and publish temperatures - they include that field belonging to the spinster, Miss Grant and her lovely border collie, miles from anywhere...

[Stratos Ferric]

Prediction: similar pattern to June but with cooler SSTs (negative anomalies) we will get -0.5C.below CET instead of +1.5C above CET.

Interesting month.

Can't be ruled out, though I'd still reckon 0.5-1C above par is a better bet; it's looking like a more W'ly regime this month, suggesting moderate warmth. The continued cyclogenesis off Newfoundland is remarkable, and perhaps what we should be more exercised by reference the poor summer to date is not the cold in the S Atlantic, so much as the great anomalous warmth in the NW ocean.

I've been thinking (uh-oh) for a while about the last point in your post SF regarding the expected low temps and want to play a bit of a 'Devils Advocate'. How do we know that 2-3ºC weren't widespread in many locations across the Welsh Marches in that period? Not every field has a thermometer in it and those few towns and villages (in proportion to the many) that do record and publish the temps might record distorted coolness through UHI effect. The forecast temp maps don't predict the temps just for the areas that record and publish temperatures - they include that field belonging to the spinster, Miss Grant and her lovely border collie, miles from anywhere...

I think it was a short while Shuggee! Anyway, sort of, though there is an excellent proxy in the location. The station at Shawbury is a notoriously cold spot, and Leek is not a warm location. It would be remarkable - and highly unlikely - if all the monitoring stations (official and unofficial) missed cold temps whilst other spots, unmeasured, got them: doubly so if the locations of the official stations have a fairly even scatter. I do occasionally look at the sites hosting unofficial temps if I want to check something, e.g. the fantasy winter temps last year, and the apparent variation / noise in the data is usually fairly small. Also, most official UKMO sites are reasonably rural; and certainly far from being super-urban where UHI would really kick in.