July CET

[summer blizzard]

Phillip Eden has the 1st-10th as 14.9C, 1.1C below the rolling average, and below my prediction of 15.2C-15.4C for the 1st-10th.

After studying the charts, i believe that the period 11th-20th, will average 16.7C, which is 0.2C above average.

Thus after doing some calculations, i believe that the CET for the 1st-20th, will average 15.9C-16.1C, which is 0.5C below average.

After studying the last data available, i believe that the period 21st-30th will average between 15.8C-16.4C, which is 0.1C to 0.7C below average, thus, i anticipate the monthly CET to be in the range of 15.8C-16.4C.

[Snowly does it]

Phillip Eden has the 1st-10th as 14.9C, 1.1C below the rolling average, and below my prediction of 15.2C-15.4C for the 1st-10th.

After studying the charts, i believe that the period 11th-20th, will average 16.7C, which is 0.2C above average.

Thus after doing some calculations, i believe that the CET for the 1st-20th, will average 15.9C-16.1C, which is 0.5C below average.

After studying the last data available, i believe that the period 21st-30th will average between 15.8C-16.4C, which is 0.1C to 0.7C below average, thus, i anticipate the monthly CET to be in the range of 15.8C-16.4C.

If 1-10 = 14.9 and 11-20 realises your prediction of 16.7 then 1-20 = 15.8, not 15.9-16.1

Hadley on 15.1 to the 10th, 17.2 now required until month end to attain an average July (and for Manley to reach 16.5, 17.3 required)

[summer blizzard]

If 1-10 = 14.9 and 11-20 realises your prediction of 16.7 then 1-20 = 15.8, not 15.9-16.1

Hadley on 15.1 to the 10th, 17.2 now required until month end to attain an average July (and for Manley to reach 16.5, 17.3 required)

Thanks for that, dodgy maths on my part lol...

Therefore, i expect the CET to be between 15.7C-15.9C on the 20th...

Assuming that the acerage CET for the 21st-30th is again 16.5C, i expect the monthly CET to be between 15.3C-15.9C.

[Snowly does it]

Thanks for that, dodgy maths on my part lol...

Therefore, i expect the CET to be between 15.7C-15.9C on the 20th...

Assuming that the acerage CET for the 21st-30th is again 16.5C, i expect the monthly CET to be between 15.3C-15.9C.

Errr no

If the CET is 15.7 to 15.9 on the 20th then an outturn of 16.5 for the remainder cannot produce a lower CET - 16.5 for the 20-31st on top of your 15.8 would give an outturn of 16.1

Edited July 11, 2007 by snowmaiden

[summer blizzard]

Errr no

If the CET is 15.7 to 15.9 on the 20th then an outturn of 16.5 for the remainder cannot produce a lower CET - 16.5 for the 20-31st on top of your 15.8 would give an outturn of 16.1

I mean the expected average for the period 21st-30th is 16.5C, i actually expect the final third of June to average between 15.8C and 16.4C, thus a negative anomoly between 0.1C and 0.7C below average for that ten day period.

Yet again, my maths was flawed, and the monthly CET in my opinion will come in between 15.6C-16.2C.

I think i have it right this time.

[kold weather]

I suspect we will see something of a decent warm-up from the 20th onwards and I do see real signs of the Azores high finally making more inroads. As I said before the set-up right now looks to me to have a CET ending up close to 16C.

I have to say right now it looks fairly hard to get the CET above average. Problem is right now the jet just can't get meridional enough to allow anything more then 36-72hr warm plumes like we wil lsee this weekend and so while the Azores high attempt at moving in may well warm us up, the rate of warming up may well just be too slow to get much above average.

So as of now I think probably something close to 16C, temps look very close to average overlal bar the odd breif warm-up, I'd say 70% chance of a below average month.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, SSTs remain low to our W but high to the NW, and the jet core is consequently both quite energetic but displaced south. Something around 16C looks likely on the basis of current GFS runs, though this month is probably closer to the margin than last month and a warm end to the month can't be ruled out yet. Even so, 17 looks absolute tops at present, 16-16.5 is the favourite on the basis of the current runs.

Anyway, here's the early month projection.

[The Eagle]

Anyone got a link to how stratospheric temperatures are holding up atm? I had a link but then lost it! :lol:

Edited July 11, 2007 by Darkman

[Optimus Prime]

Looking at the current models I would favour something nearer to 15.5c

[Kentish Man]

Manley stands at 14.9C and Hadley 15.1C (Jul 1 -11). This may be the low point of the month with the CET likely to increase in the next few days with both warmer days and nights. The models indicate a return to cooler conditions by the middle of next week however.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Looking at the current models I would favour something nearer to 15.5c

If your right this July will be the first below average month since March 2006 in the C.E.T zone at least. :lol:

Worth noting how N England and Scotland are above average. How the tide can turn!

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Could it be a Fohn Effect is acting on the Southwesterlies to produce above average temperatures in Northern England and Scotland?

Edited July 12, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Snowly does it]

If your right this July will be the first below average month since March 2006 in the C.E.T zone at least. :lol:

August 2006 was 0.1c below the 71-00 mean.

[Stu_London]

Manley stands at 14.9C and Hadley 15.1C (Jul 1 -11). This may be the low point of the month with the CET likely to increase in the next few days with both warmer days and nights. The models indicate a return to cooler conditions by the middle of next week however.

Im not sure how much this period over the next few days will affect the CET. The only real warmth of note is if anywhere going to be to the south east of the CET zone. Yes nights will be warmer but there is a suggestion that any rain around may supress maximas too. I wouldn't be suprised to see us back to around 15.0C in a weeks time.

[kold weather]

Looking rather likely we are going to see a below average month now, still a chance of a heatwave late in the month but models don't hint at anything like that till at least the 22-24th and even there really any signs but thats the earliest shot at something like that but what I', trying to say is that chances are now very high for a below average month...even this weekend only look a little above average thanks to higher mins but a couple of days of higher temps will probably only rise it to 15.1-15.4 and after that there are hints at yet another round of below average temps starting and all the time the average required just to reach average increases.

The more likely quesiton now is will we get below the 61-90 average of 16C??

Edited July 12, 2007 by kold weather

[damianslaw]

Quite surprised to see figures for Scotland and N England coming in at just above average. Is is the high minimums that have caused it as maximums haven't been that great.

[frozen_north]

Quite surprised to see figures for Scotland and N England coming in at just above average. Is is the high minimums that have caused it as maximums haven't been that great.

Well going by the figures for Glasgow Airport the temperature is 0.8C below average. So maybe on a wider picture the temperature for Scotland could be above average but local places like Glasgow are recording below average temperatures.

[West is Best]

Manley on 15.1C at the moment.

Still thinking 16C+ is now on the cards, but I may well be wrong!

I wouldn't be suprised to see us back to around 15.0C in a weeks time.

I'll be extremely surprised if that's the case Stu. We have some very muggy nights (13C to 14C), and with temps today (for instance) hitting 23C+ in a lot of the CET zone it's going to be pushing sharply upwards for a while I'd have thought.

Edited July 13, 2007 by West is Best

[kold weather]

I think we will probably get upto 15.3-15.4C though the uncerttainty aobut this weekend will be where any thundery rain develops and wher eit place sitself, the 0z GFS places a heavy pulse right over the CET zone and gives surpressed maxes.

Then of course you have a set-up that actually looks rather cool towards the latter end of the week with low thickness and a general NW/N wind the mins will once probably quite low in such airflow and maxes will probably stay below average as well and long range models suggests we'll stay on the eastern side of any Azores. Given that we are going to be lucky to reach 16C I rekcon. Betweenthe 17-21st I can't see the CET averaging any more then 15C.

[Stu_London]

I concur

Whilst a rise is likely between now and Sunday it will start to drop off again early next week. We may even have some very unseasonable minima to deal with by mid week.

[Bobby]

Well, I think it's fair to say my guess is not going to happen. I was being optimistic for a change and thinking the last half of July would be a big improvement, so much for that!

[kold weather]

CET is still at 15.1C this morning so we've seen no rise since Thursday it seems though I think today may just push it up a little again. We will probably see a rise upto about 15.4-15.7C by Tuesday followed by a fall, possibly quite a sizeable fall if the models are right with us on the cool side of any attempt at an Azores ridge and then afterwards there appears to be a threat of another phase of southerly jet stream. Given this its looking very likely we will be below the 71-00 average of 16.5C and also more and more likely we will be below the 16C average of 61-90, the first time since March 2006.

By the way the CET could rise quite neatly as I said before over the next 3 days, I wouldn't be surprised by a 0.5-0.6C rise between now and then looking at how high last nights mins were generally.

Edited July 14, 2007 by kold weather

[cheeky_monkey]

it would be nice to see a below ave month..to justify all the rain...nothing worse than warm dull wet weather in summer..if it is going 2 be warm let it be sunny!

[Snowly does it]

CET is still at 15.1C this morning so we've seen no rise since Thursday

Although it was 15.05 rounded up Thursday and 15.15 rounded down Friday so really its a rise of 0.1 - Hadley will probably go to 15.3 today in response.

[snowray]

OMG :o A bellow average month now looking more and more likely, surely not...and who would have thought of it to have been July to stop the rot! Probably end up with a mega heat wave in the last week and it will be up into the 16s in the blink of an eye.

[Lettucing Gutted]

it would be nice to see a below ave month..to justify all the rain...nothing worse than warm dull wet weather in summer..if it is going 2 be warm let it be sunny!

Yeah it would nice to have a sub 1960-1991 month for a change. However what are the odds of the July C.E.T still being below 16.1C by the end of the month?