July CET

[West is Best]

Thing is though that with Hadley on 15.5C to the 15th it was actually only 0.4C below at that point.

Bet you we have an average or above average month! The cold part has done it's major work, but not really produced much in terms of the CET - very surprising to me.

If we do hit 15.5C tomorrow

The official CET hit that figure after Saturday. Should be markedly higher than that by close of play tomorrow - probably up near 16C.

[kold weather]

Well todays temnps should rise it to 15.6 and maybe just 15.7 rounded up and I can see tomorrow being verey close to today in terms of temps so we should end up being around 15.7-15.8C on the Hadley and 15.5-15.6C on the Manley. Wednesday will probably see it hold steady i suspect.

After that West I think we will see a dip again and if the 12z set-up is anything to go by we won't be seeing any more rise in the CET after Wednesday till at least the 28th so if we are still below average by that point i suspect there is little chance of us getting to above average, esp with charts like this!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

Edited July 16, 2007 by kold weather

[West is Best]

No I think it will rise KW - possible holding or slight dip a couple of times this week but basically upwards from here in my view. This is largely because of decreasing precipation. Doesn't take much at this time of year for temps to lift without rain.

[kold weather]

Hehehe, well I think its going to be fairly hard to get to 16.5C from here on, esp given the long range models still show us being in lower thickness (sub 550mbs according to the UKMO by 144hrs, would suggest a CET mean for that day between 14-15C, not much higher at 120hrs either) and therefore a cooler airmass from Wednesday onwards, plus there is likely to be more rain then I think your expecting (indeed the UKMO model indicates Friday could be a bit of a washout in the south) as well though to be fair it does look more showery which will help up the maxes.

Edited July 16, 2007 by kold weather

[Stu_London]

No I think it will rise KW - possible holding or slight dip a couple of times this week but basically upwards from here in my view. This is largely because of decreasing precipation. Doesn't take much at this time of year for temps to lift without rain.

Models have consistently shown single figure mins from tomorrow night through to sunday widely thorough the CET zone

If we have 8C at night we need 24C during the day to make the CET rise, indicators are that 20c will be isolated and 18 probably average.

If Manley is not 15.2 or lower by the 22nd, I will eat my lucky pants (and post the photos on here to prove it)

[West is Best]

If Manley is not 15.2 or lower by the 22nd, I will eat my lucky pants (and post the photos on here to prove it)

If you were a Jessica Alba lookalike that would be a challenge worth wishing for. But somehow that makes me hope desperately that the CET is below 15.2C

There might be a few single figures from Thursday night onwards (not tomorrow night nor Wednesday), but nothing much to write home about. Lots of double figures to offset most of it I suspect. Don't think it looks all that warm, but the finale to the month should increase things a little more I suspect. Think 16C+ is pretty likely now personally. But we shall see!

Edited July 16, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

If you were a Jessica Alba lookalike that would be a challenge worth wishing for. But somehow that makes me hope desperately that the CET is below 15.2C

There might be a few single figures from Thursday night onwards (not tomorrow night nor Wednesday), but nothing much to write home about. Lots of double figures to offset most of it I suspect. Don't think it looks all that warm, but the finale to the month should increase things a little more I suspect. Think 16C+ is pretty likely now personally. But we shall see!

dont worry, i will wear some not so lucky pants whilst eating the lucky ones.

Anyway Richard, given your recent record in short term predictions, I would suggest that if you think 16C+ is on the cards then 15.2C or lower is a near certainty

[West is Best]

Pot kettle black Stu ... ?

Not been my best month I'll admit though!

[kold weather]

To be fair to West I somewhat agree with him upto Wednesday anyway and I think we'll be upto 15.8C by that point. After that and i think we will see a drop, maybe not quite as low as 15.2 by the 22nd, i just can't see mins being low enough generally.

If your using the GFS as a base for your predictions then you'll likely be too cool in term sof the temps, because honestly its really not been great recently. In contrast the UKMO model has been excellent out to 72hrs anyway. The beeb use this model and it only goes for one night with the mins down to 9C this week in the CET zone, most nights are between 11-14C which is more likely IMO.

Edited July 16, 2007 by kold weather

[Stu_London]

To be fair to West I somewhat agree with him upto Wednesday anyway and I think we'll be upto 15.8C by that point. After that and i think we will see a drop, maybe not quite as low as 15.2 by the 22nd, i just can't see mins being low enough generally.

If your using the GFS as a base for your predictions then you'll likely be too cool in term sof the temps, because honestly its really not been great recently. In contrast the UKMO model has been excellent out to 72hrs anyway. The beeb use this model and it only goes for one night with the mins down to 9C this week in the CET zone, most nights are between 11-14C which is more likely IMO.

That would require an average for the next three days of 18.3C - Not sure things are quite that warm

[Lettucing Gutted]

(The Met Office also use the 1961-1990 stats alongside the 1971-2000 stats)

Thats what I do as well.

[kold weather]

Todays temps looks like averaging out to be about 17.5-18.5C at first look so we are target for that sort of CET. Tomorrow however does look a little cooler then that but I suspect that we will see average out about 17C. The GFS suggests aCET of about 15C for Wednesday BUT the UKMO/Beeb are higher then that and knowing that the GFS has a habit of being too cool outside of 36-48hrs, esp in regards to the mins I trust them more and they average close to 18C

Stu, what do you think the CET will be come Thursday morning?

[Duncan McAlister]

Thing is though that with Hadley on 15.5C to the 15th it was actually only 0.4C below at that point.

Bet you we have an average or above average month! The cold part has done it's major work, but not really produced much in terms of the CET - very surprising to me.

The official CET hit that figure after Saturday. Should be markedly higher than that by close of play tomorrow - probably up near 16C.

I believe that's the 1961-90 figure though, if you regard the average as 1971-00 then it's more like -0.8C

[Stu_London]

Todays temps looks like averaging out to be about 17.5-18.5C at first look so we are target for that sort of CET. Tomorrow however does look a little cooler then that but I suspect that we will see average out about 17C. The GFS suggests aCET of about 15C for Wednesday BUT the UKMO/Beeb are higher then that and knowing that the GFS has a habit of being too cool outside of 36-48hrs, esp in regards to the mins I trust them more and they average close to 18C

Stu, what do you think the CET will be come Thursday morning?

15.5C

Edited July 16, 2007 by Stu_London

[West is Best]

That would require an average for the next three days of 18.3C - Not sure things are quite that warm

Stu - Hadley (the real CET) was already on 15.5C to the 15th. A rise of 0.3C over 3 days is incredibly little.

I believe that's the 1961-90 figure though, if you regard the average as 1971-00 then it's more like -0.8C

I think it was more to do with rounding to the average for the time of the month - I don't think Hadley use 61-90 at all now do they?

[Duncan McAlister]

Stu - Hadley (the real CET) was already on 15.5C to the 15th. A rise of 0.3C over 3 days is incredibly little.

I think it was more to do with rounding to the average for the time of the month - I don't think Hadley use 61-90 at all now do they?

Check out the averages for this year

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

March for example, if you take away the anomaly, it gives an average of 5.6C - this is the 61-90 average

Still, if you're a cold weather fan, a below average month isn't really cold until it's below 61-90

[Gavin P]

In 2007, I really have no idea why people talk about 61-90. This 30 year average should have been consigned to the history books years ago.

[Duncan McAlister]

In 2007, I really have no idea why people talk about 61-90. This 30 year average should have been consigned to the history books years ago.

I just find it interesting to see how difficult it is to match it these days - look how rare 3.8C Januaries or Februaries are now!

[Gavin P]

Yeah, I was meaning more professional forecasting agencies. Why does the Met Office, for instance, still mention and use 61-90? They actually started the change over to 71-00 in 2005, yet still 61-90 is alive and well on the Met Office site? Why?

Philip Eden changed over to 71-00 on New Years Day 2001, I believe? Whilst I know it will take the Met longer than that to change over, i still can't see any possible reason why in 2007 they should still have not consigned 61-90 to the hirsty books.

[West is Best]

Check out the averages for this year

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

March for example, if you take away the anomaly, it gives an average of 5.6C - this is the 61-90 average

Still, if you're a cold weather fan, a below average month isn't really cold until it's below 61-90

I do believe you're right! The Met Office have moved to 71-00 but I hadn't realised that Hadley don't look as if they have there.

[Duncan McAlister]

Yeah, I was meaning more professional forecasting agencies. Why does the Met Office, for instance, still mention and use 61-90? They actually started the change over to 71-00 in 2005, yet still 61-90 is alive and well on the Met Office site? Why?

Philip Eden changed over to 71-00 on New Years Day 2001, I believe? Whilst I know it will take the Met longer than that to change over, i still can't see any possible reason why in 2007 they should still have not consigned 61-90 to the hirsty books.

Like I've said before Gav, it helps prove their point about GW

I've read another poster saying it is also quite close to the 1901-2000 average?

[West is Best]

Like I've said before Gav, it helps prove their point about GW

Oh come come.

I've read another poster saying it is also quite close to the 1901-2000 average?

The 100 year rolling average is mostly somewhere between the two:

The 3 figures are, in turn, 1961-1990 then 1971-2000 and finally the 100 year rolling 1906-2005 average

January 3.8 4.2 3.9

February 3.8 4.2 4.1

March 5.7 6.3 5.9

April 7.9 8.1 8.1

May 11.2 11.3 11.4

June 14.1 14.1 14.2

July 16.1 16.5 16.1

August 15.8 16.2 15.9

Sept 13.6 13.7 13.6

Oct 10.6 10.4 10.2

Nov 6.5 6.9 6.6

Dec 4.6 5.1 4.7

The annual CET from the 3 means is as follows:

1961-1990: 9.5

1971-2000: 9.75

1906-2005: 9.6

[Gavin P]

LOL! So, the Met Office use 71-00 and Hadley (which is part of the Met Office?) still use 61-90.... What a daft situation.

[Stu_London]

Stu - Hadley (the real CET) was already on 15.5C to the 15th. A rise of 0.3C over 3 days is incredibly little.

I was talking about Manley( and KW knew I was ) which rightly or wrongly is the basis of the CET competition and that is currently 15.3C

A rise to 15.8 is significant as it would require an average of 18.3C over three days - As maximas are only just going to exceed this, I can be fairly safe in the knowledge that 15.8C wont be reached by in three days time.

[Duncan McAlister]

Oh come come.

Well, 1.6C above average sounds a lot better than 0.9C above average if you are pushing the AGW case (I am no sceptic, btw)

The 100 year rolling average is mostly somewhere between the two:

The 3 figures are, in turn, 1961-1990 then 1971-2000 and finally the 100 year rolling 1906-2005 average

January 3.8 4.2 3.9

February 3.8 4.2 4.1

March 5.7 6.3 5.9

April 7.9 8.1 8.1

May 11.2 11.3 11.4

June 14.1 14.1 14.2

July 16.1 16.5 16.1

August 15.8 16.2 15.9

Sept 13.6 13.7 13.6

Oct 10.6 10.4 10.2

Nov 6.5 6.9 6.6

Dec 4.6 5.1 4.7

The annual CET from the 3 means is as follows:

1961-1990: 9.5

1971-2000: 9.75

1906-2005: 9.6

Interesting, so 1961-90 was actually a relatively cool period in our climate (in the context of the last century).

Thanks for the 100-year averages, I didn't know where to find them before.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2007/june.html

61-90 alive and well here on the MetO too!

Edited July 16, 2007 by Duncan McAlister