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July CET

shuggee

By shuggee
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Though to be fair Stu you said a few days ago that you'd eat your pants if it wasn't 15.2C by now!

16C is certainly very possible from here.

Once again you quote inaccurately - I said by the end of Sunday

Good job you didn't take up a career in journalism, you would not have got far

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AtlanticFlamethrower Explorer

AtlanticFlamethrower

Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
Posted

SSTAs around UK are edging to the warm side again.

North sea and Atlantic west of Scotland and Ireland above average; North of Scotland and the Atlantic SW of Cornwall and Devon below average.

Sea temperature bias favours warmer than average CET toward the end of the month. If the sea bias is matched by warmer than average air source (continental plume) then we can, heroically, nip the CET above average for the month of July, and look forward to a better August.

It remains interesting that June 21 to July 21 has been significantly below average - about the same as SST bias. Coincidence? I'll keep making the predictions and see how it goes. With no movement in sea temperature anomalies I'd expect August CET to be above average (exactly how much I'll guess nearer the time!).

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
I think it is almost a certainty now that this July will be the mildest November on record. :)

Strewth! November is warmer than July! My next Christmas dinner will be...Aug 25th!

BFTP

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted
Strewth! November is warmer than July! My next Christmas dinner will be...Aug 25th!

BFTP

And your next BBQ will be in January :)

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Atlantic, the seas around our shore are shallow enough to warm and cool very quickly, its not surprising the cooler SSTA have matched the cooler spell, because we've had cooler synotpics of course the SSTA are going to become on the cool side, its not so much the temps in the sea thats driving the cooldown of the CET but the cooler synoptics that is cooling the sea and the temps, its all one of the same thing so to speak.

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osmposm Apprentice

osmposm

Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
Posted
Once again you quote inaccurately - I said by the end of Sunday

OK, nitpicker.....but now it's the end of Sunday, ain't it, and it's still 15.4??!!

Looking forward to the public pants-eating in due course.....

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
OK, nitpicker.....but now it's the end of Sunday, ain't it, and it's still 15.4??!!

Looking forward to the public pants-eating in due course.....

Had them for lunch with a large portion of humble pie.

I was going to have the sour grapes too, but I'll leave them for Richard.

Seriously, the old minimas held up once again under a regime that was much more damp and humid than expected. Even the beeb were predicting low minimas

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Gavin P Explorer

Gavin P

Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants
Posted

The CET is actually 15.38, with another fiarly cool afternoon in the CET zone, so I don't think we're too far away from Stu's 15.2 prediction. ;)

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

The weekend should see some mild night temperatures, the day temperatures will probably be quite depressed due to heavy rain, but I dont see it moving down alot. I think with 7 days of the month left - probably stay around 15.2 to 15.4C

A shock to the system, and no doubt itll be blamed on global warming ;)

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AtlanticFlamethrower Explorer

AtlanticFlamethrower

Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
Posted
Atlantic, the seas around our shore are shallow enough to warm and cool very quickly, its not surprising the cooler SSTA have matched the cooler spell, because we've had cooler synotpics of course the SSTA are going to become on the cool side, its not so much the temps in the sea thats driving the cooldown of the CET but the cooler synoptics that is cooling the sea and the temps, its all one of the same thing so to speak.

My suggestion is not that these anomalies "drive" anything - they don't. They simply are a passive bias on local temperatures.

It is important to keep track of these anomalies because they can change quickly and have an affect on the CET.

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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Posted (edited)

I think this is the moment to be candid:

This is the worst summer I can ever remember and it's obviously going to be a below average month.

What an abysmal awful summer. Mrs WIB doesn't mind being heavily pregnant, but even the cats are gloomy. It's all Global Warming of course. Just like last summer's arid and hot one was GW. Afterall, didn't the scientists say we should expect long dry Mediterranean summers torrential downpours and flooding for years to come, until Britain turns into a giant desert iceberg?

:rolleyes::(:(;);)

Edited by West is Best
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Duncan McAlister Aficionado

Duncan McAlister

Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
Posted (edited)
I think this is the moment to be candid:

This is the worst summer I can ever remember and it's obviously going to be a below average month.

What an abysmal awful summer. Mrs WIB doesn't mind being heavily pregnant, but even the cats are gloomy. It's all Global Warming of course. Just like last summer's arid and hot one was GW. Afterall, didn't the scientists say we should expect long dry Mediterranean summers torrential downpours and flooding for years to come, until Britain turns into a giant desert iceberg?

:D:):):):)

Richard, your candour is most refreshing!

Still, we have the best weather in Britain today :lol:

www.xcweather.co.uk

Edited by Duncan McAlister
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Optimus Prime Rising Star

Optimus Prime

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Posted (edited)

1 consolation for the ones tuned into mild more then cold is if July ends up at 16.0c (-0.5c-average respectively) against your favourite, the classic 1961-1990 average the summer will still be 0.4c above average. Ok wet but wet and warm.

Against the 1971-000 , the cold biased's average where it makes the month seem less warm the summer will be only 0.2c above normal.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

16C will not be reached, infact aside from two days, i expect movement to be downward.

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Gavin P Explorer

Gavin P

Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants
Posted

I think it'll be very stable now. 15.3 looks to be the lowest to me (which it'll be tomorrow) It won't be any higher than 15.6 by months end, IMO.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

I can see a little downward movement, 15C to 15.4C looks to be the likely boundary to me.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Whatever the final CET will be at long last it will be a below average CET how very very very refreshing it has restored my confidence in the idea that we won't necessarily see month after month of continuously above CET values in this period of global warming.

On a downside what a shame it has had to arrive in July, in my opinion it should have waited until September.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
19.2C average from here needed to reach average

17.5C average from here needed to reach 16C

Highly unlikely IMHO

19.6 needed now to reach average (16.5C)

17.7 needed to reach 16C

ever more unlikley

EW Rainfall now over 100mm

Thanks to www.climate-uk.com

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