July CET

[Kentish Man]

The fact July will be below average on whatever scale you use (100 yrs , 61-90 71-00) is a given. The question now is how far below will it be. Also will it be the first July since 1970 (I think?) to record a CET lower than June. Manley's June CET was 15.4C so its by no means impossible, although some warmer weather (warm sector) is predicted for next weekend in the models.

Both Manley and Hadley today stand on 15.4C (Jul 1 -23).

Edited July 24, 2007 by Kentish Man

[West is Best]

The fact July will be below average on whatever scale you use (100 yrs , 61-90 71-00) is a given.

Hate to dissent, but it's not entirely a given that it wouldn't match the 61-90 and 100 year average of 16.1C. It may be unlikely, but it's not impossible; well not quite.

[Spirit of 1740]

So you reckon the last 8 days (including today) could have a mean of 18.1c? <_<

[kold weather]

A 71-00 below average July is nailed on now I think, I still think somewhere between 15.5-16.0C is the most likely outcome and our first below average 61-90 month for quite some time is looking very likely.

[West is Best]

So you reckon the last 8 days (including today) could have a mean of 18.1c? <_<

Well obviously they could.

Doesn't mean they will , just don't think one can quite go so far as to describe it as a given that the 16.1C won't be reached. Granted it's pretty unlikely, but it's not quite a given.

our first below average 61-90 month for quite some time is looking very likely.

Funny how memory can play tricks though Kold ... it's only in February last year that we saw the 61-90 average broken. December of that winter also broke it.

Edited July 24, 2007 by West is Best

[VillagePlank]

Well obviously they could.

Doesn't mean they will , just don't think one can quite go so far as to describe it as a given that the 16.1C won't be reached. Granted it's pretty unlikely, but it's not quite a given.

Funny how memory can play tricks though Kold ... it's only in February last year that we saw the 61-90 average broken. December of that winter also broke it.

Hope it does. That'll be me spot on.

[TEITS]

Funny how memory can play tricks though Kold ... it's only in February last year that we saw the 61-90 average broken. December of that winter also broke it.

Yes you are right.

Dec 05 4.4 61-90 CET is 4.6

Feb 06 3.7 61-90 CET is 3.8

[reef]

Well obviously they could.

Doesn't mean they will , just don't think one can quite go so far as to describe it as a given that the 16.1C won't be reached. Granted it's pretty unlikely, but it's not quite a given.

Funny how memory can play tricks though Kold ... it's only in February last year that we saw the 61-90 average broken. December of that winter also broke it.

The memory does indeed play tricks. Lets not forget March which was below it by some way. The CET came in at 4.9°C compared to the 1961-90 average of 5.7°C. Quite a cold month by recent standards and arguably a very large outlier.

Edited July 24, 2007 by reef

[Stratos Ferric]

Can't believe how crap the internet is at this flippin' hotel; what flumoxes me is that it's the same chain as the Holiday Inn across the road where my lappy work like a dream. Anyway, I have persisted...

The month end projection: looks like something around 15.5C. Hurrah for those who bid unusually low! Whilst the detail has varied this month the overall projections have been fairly consistent, though those looking to next month note that the settled, warmer stuff always looks like it's ten days or more away.

[DR Hosking]

Yes, 16 degrees will not be reached. I cant see it going above 15.5 personally, looking at the forecast I think 15.3 or 15.4 will be the final outcome. Highs for the rest of the month in the late teens or early 20's and lows between 8 and 12. Anyway, whatever it turns out to be, temperature wise for me its been a good month, Being an Asthma and Eczma sufferer last summers heat was a real nightmare for me. OK we could have done without all the rain for it to be a good month. I suspect if it had been as hot as last year all those people moaning about this July's weather would also be moaning that the heat is too much!

[NorthantsSnow]

The Meto's Summer forecast has been updated and it says that 'near average' temperatures are likely to continue until the end of July, but above average temperatures are possible for a time during August.

Edited July 25, 2007 by Dancc

[kold weather]

Funny how memory can play tricks though Kold ... it's only in February last year that we saw the 61-90 average broken. December of that winter also broke it.

Hehehe, as Reef said that actually wasn't the last month to record a CET below the 61-90 series, it was March. However whatever way you put it months like this haven't exactly been common in recent years and indeed is the first below average month since August 06 and the first below 61-90 month since March 06 so I think its fair to say thats quite a long time when all is said.

[VillagePlank]

I can't believe I revised upwards. I would have nearly been spot on damn it

[Lettucing Gutted]

and the first below 61-90 month since March 06 so I think its fair to say thats quite a long time when all is said.

Indeed the 16 month interval from March 2006 to July 2007 must be the longest interval on record between sub 1960-1991 C.E.T months.

Edited July 25, 2007 by Craig Evans

[DR Hosking]

yeah but were not in 1960 - 1991 are we? Why does it matter? 1971 - 2000 is what we should be comparing too surely?

[The PIT]

Yes, 16 degrees will not be reached. I cant see it going above 15.5 personally, looking at the forecast I think 15.3 or 15.4 will be the final outcome. Highs for the rest of the month in the late teens or early 20's and lows between 8 and 12. Anyway, whatever it turns out to be, temperature wise for me its been a good month, Being an Asthma and Eczma sufferer last summers heat was a real nightmare for me. OK we could have done without all the rain for it to be a good month. I suspect if it had been as hot as last year all those people moaning about this July's weather would also be moaning that the heat is too much!

Luckily I've grown out of Eczma. Used to be a nightmare as I had the type that blistered and weeped. Luckily it never got to my face which I was grateful for. Nothing worse than Hot sunny weather used to be very painful as you couldn't cover it. If you did it made it worse.

AS for Asma still got that but thankfully this summer no problem. I can go to sleep at night.

[Lettucing Gutted]

yeah but were not in 1960 - 1991 are we? Why does it matter? 1971 - 2000 is what we should be comparing too surely?

I use the 1960-1991 period because this period looks normal for the C.E.T zone's expected climate "Cool Temperate" because warm and cold extremes were roughly even matched in the 1960-1990 period thus producing roughly normal conditions over this period in the C.E.T zone.

However warm extremes have dominated the 1971-2000 period more than anything else thus producing a warm skew in the C.E.T zone towards an unexpected "Mediterranean Climate".

Edited July 25, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Duncan McAlister]

The minima have actually been surprisingly cool this July for such a low pressure dominated month. Above average for CET zone, but not by a great deal. My local weather station, Prestwick Airport, has recorded 7 sub-10C minima this month so far.

This compares favourably with previous cool Julys:

Sub 10C nights in

1998: 3

2000: 10

2004: 8

It is possible that 2000 may be equalled with a few cooler nights at the end of the month.

Even at Heathrow most of the nights have been below 14C, the July average.

Stats from weatheronline.co.uk

[Stu_London]

Manley CET from www.climate-uk.com

to 25th July 15.4C

There is a chance that nobody will score a direct hit with their CET prediction this month as there is a gap between 14.2C and 15.5C.

Nothing particularly warm coming up, although a great deal of uncertainty at close range still.

[Weather-history]

Philip's value is actually rounded up because it went down by 0.05C, the actual value is 15.35

[DR Hosking]

I use the 1960-1991 period because this period looks normal for the C.E.T zone's expected climate "Cool Temperate" because warm and cold extremes were roughly even matched in the 1960-1990 period thus producing roughly normal conditions over this period in the C.E.T zone.

However warm extremes have dominated the 1971-2000 period more than anything else thus producing a warm skew in the C.E.T zone towards an unexpected "Mediterranean Climate".

I don't really see your logic here, you may be right in saying that the 1961 0 91 period was closer to the "Cool Temperate" climate but that climate is always on the change, currently for the warmer, so comparing too it is getting less and less relevant. I think im right in thinking that there is a 5 year lag in the official climate stats so that in 2015 we will then be using 1981 - 2010 stats to compare against. This will obviously mean because of the warming of the last 20 years until we reach 2015 and start to use those stats we will be less & less likely to have temperatures comparable to the 1971 -2000 averages and the 1961 - 1990 figures will become increasingly irrelevent. At somke point you have to face facts that our climate is warmer than it was 30 years ago and use the most relevant dataset i.e the official 30 year mean.

[Optimus Prime]

The latest temperature according to the Metoffice is 15.4c which is 1.1c below the 71-000 average.

The average temperautre accordin to the GFS from today until the 31st is 14.3c (a low calculation due to some unlikely cold minima on the last 3 nights, typically 7c) meaning by the end of the month the average temperature will be;

15.2c. 0.8c below the 61-90 average and 1.3c below the 71-000 average. Or 1.7c below the 2000-2007 average and 1.6c below the 1997-2007 average.

If it was to end up at 15.2c it would make this July around the top 85 coldest julys in history.

[kold weather]

Yeah GFS mins are too low and probably maxes are a little low as well but its not really going to make any difference now to whether the CET is belw average or not, thats pretty much nailed on now, both the 61-90 average and the current 71-00. It'll be interesting to see whether we can end up 1C below, that would be quite impressive given the very warm last 12 months.

Looks like a range of 15.2-15.6C is most likely now and thus the first below average month of 2007.

[Stu_London]

What is quite remarkable about this month is although it is going to be below average, the dominant pattern hasn't been northerly.

In fact we have probably had as much southerly influence as northerly in a generally westerly theme.

I think the low temps on this occasion owe as much to supressed daytime maxes in periods of rain and the lack of sunshine as it is the daytime temps that have taken the brunt of things.

[cheeky_monkey]

The latest temperature according to the Metoffice is 15.4c which is 1.1c below the 71-000 average.

The average temperautre accordin to the GFS from today until the 31st is 14.3c (a low calculation due to some unlikely cold minima on the last 3 nights, typically 7c) meaning by the end of the month the average temperature will be;

15.2c. 0.8c below the 61-90 average and 1.3c below the 71-000 average. Or 1.7c below the 2000-2007 average and 1.6c below the 1997-2007 average.

If it was to end up at 15.2c it would make this July around the top 85 coldest julys in history.

i think u missed 4.7c below the 2006 average...how many averages do u need???