July CET

[Kentish Man]

Manley is still on 15.4C (15.35C to be exact) for the period Jul 1 -26 which is 1.0C below the 1971-2000 average.

Although this month will not be expecially cool thanks to average night minima , suppressed daytime maxima (currently 2.3C below), the frequency and quantity of rain and lack of sunshine will make this a thoroughly miserable July for most people.

[kold weather]

Also this is the coolest July since 2000 and maybe since 1993 which isn't too bad really givne how warmt the previous 12 months were.

Stu, yeah the surpressed maxes have been the main story of this month temp wise, mins have been pretty close to average but the constant frontal systems combined with some fairly cool thickness (hence why mins are about average despite lots of rain and cloud) have allowed us to have a below average month, the question is now will we have a 1C below average month?

[Snowly does it]

the question is now will we have a 1C below average month?

Which, coincidentally, would make the June-July period spot on average for the 71-00 series giving us the possibility of a below average summer - a rare beast

[Don]

Which, coincidentally, would make the June-July period spot on average for the 71-00 series giving us the possibility of a below average summer - a rare beast

I think August will be a above average month making this Summer another above average season, although not by much this time.

[Snowly does it]

I think August will be a above average month making this Summer another above average season, although not by much this time.

Me too actually, but there's always that intriguing chance!

[snowray]

Mmmm I can just imagine that happening as well, August warms up nicely, then an Indian Sumer lasting well into October last last year...

[Cymru]

Mmmm :lol: I can just imagine that happening as well, August warms up nicely, then an Indian Sumer lasting well into October last last year... :lol:

I really hope so. I wouldn't care if it lasted well into November after all this wet weather. I just want to see some sun :lol:

[Lettucing Gutted]

What is quite remarkable about this month is although it is going to be below average, the dominant pattern hasn't been northerly.

In fact we have probably had as much southerly influence as northerly in a generally westerly theme.

I think the low temps on this occasion owe as much to supressed daytime maxes in periods of rain and the lack of sunshine as it is the daytime temps that have taken the brunt of things.

Indeed it is reassuring that we can still get below average months without potent Northerlies and cool nights.

With a predominating Returning Maritime Polar airmass July 2007 is also part of that short list of cool Zonal Westerly months since January 1984.

Edited July 28, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Optimus Prime]

The GFS run suggest from Today - Tuesday 31st the average temperature will be 14.3c which is about 2.6c below average for the second half of July. This is almost entirely due to minima, maxima although below average for the time of year may just average very slightly above the 18.8c we're at now.

I don't think we'll have much further movement. I suspect around a 0.2c - 0.3c drop from it's 15.5c presently. But I'd say minima will end up no more then 0.1c above average. Just possibly dipping below average all depending how cold the CET zone gets.

Finishing number, no higher then 15.5c and no lower then 15.0c. Almost certainly going to be the coolest since 1993 (beating the other cool ones of 2004, 2002, 2000 and 1998) and depending on just how cold the nights will be possibly the coolest since 1988.

[The PIT]

For us if theres no warm up and I'm not expecting any sudden heatwave this will be the coldest July since 1988. An impressive reverse from all the record breaking months we've had.

Indian Summer lasting into October. Indian Summer round these parts is October not before.

Edited July 29, 2007 by The PIT

[Rustynailer]

For us if theres no warm up and I'm not expecting any sudden heatwave this will be the coldest July since 1988. An impressive reverse from all the record breaking months we've had.

Indian Summer lasting into October. Indian Summer round these parts is October not before.

Quite often in Nature things happen in "waves", with peaks and troughs, so it does not surprise me one bit, neither would it surprise me if we had a run of cold winters suddenly. I shan't hold my breath on that last bit though

Regards,

Russ.

[Stu_London]

The GFS run suggest from Today - Tuesday 31st the average temperature will be 14.3c which is about 2.6c below average for the second half of July. This is almost entirely due to minima, maxima although below average for the time of year may just average very slightly above the 18.8c we're at now.

I don't think we'll have much further movement. I suspect around a 0.2c - 0.3c drop from it's 15.5c presently. But I'd say minima will end up no more then 0.1c above average. Just possibly dipping below average all depending how cold the CET zone gets.

Finishing number, no higher then 15.5c and no lower then 15.0c. Almost certainly going to be the coolest since 1993 (beating the other cool ones of 2004, 2002, 2000 and 1998) and depending on just how cold the nights will be possibly the coolest since 1988.

Manley (courtesy of www.climate-uk.com) is 15.4C although this is rounded up from 15.35C

with only three days to the following average daily values will be needed.

15.3 - we need 14.8

15.2 - we need 13.8

15.1 - we need 12.8

15.0 - we need 11.7

On the upside

15.4 - we need 15.9

15.5 - we need 16.9

15.2 or 15.3 for me - with no overall winner of this months competition

[Optimus Prime]

I suppose it all depends on the minima then. Tonight looks cool, towns and cities down to 10c and in the countryside as low as 7c in most parts of Northern England so noticeably cool for late July a drop in minima is almost certain as it is around +12.0c at the moment.

Monday night/Tuesday morning looks even colder. Unusually cold for the height of summer. Down to 9c typically in the towns and cities and even possibly as low as 5c or 6c in the countryside, cold spots perhaps a little lower still. Even 9c in the south east is around 4-5c below normal.

A small chance I suspect of record low minima recorded locally in some areas for July.

[Kentish Man]

And also possibly now a better than evens chance of the July CET being below the June figure of 15.4C . However this is only on the Manley data as Hadley recorded a June CET of 15.1C and this month is unlikely to drop that low.

[Snowyowl9]

It does look rather chilly monday night.

I`ll believe that when I see it..9.0c is the lowest I`ve had so far this July be interesting to see how low it does get to drop the CET down aswell with sunny days it`s like a cold HP in winter.

Edited July 29, 2007 by Snowyowl9

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Snowyowl9, that's the dewpoint chart.

You are right, however: 9c looks widespread and it may go as low as 5C in the North West.

[damianslaw]

It does look rather chilly monday night.

I`ll believe that when I see it..9.0c is the lowest I`ve had so far this July be interesting to see how low it does get to drop the CET down aswell with sunny days it`s like a cold HP in winter.

Philip Eden in today's telegraph was saying that it will be the coldest July for England and Wales since 1993, for some parts it could even be the coldest since 1988, quite some feat in these times of rising temperatures...

As for tonight and tomorrow night expect some very low readings for late July. Tonight could see widespread minima in north England and Scotland of around 8 degrees coldest in sheltered valleys where 5 degrees could be a average figure, indeed some places may record 2 or 3 degrees but I doubt anything lower but still for the 29th July quite cold indeed.

For tomorrow night south of england and midlands will see a colder night whereas more northern areas won't be quite as cold as tonight. Again many inland parts of central southern england and Wales likely to see widespread minima below 10 degrees with some parts possibly recording 5 degrees locally below this.

All in all wouldn't noramlly expect to see such low minima for another month or so...

[Tucco]

Philip Eden in today's telegraph was saying that it will be the coldest July for England and Wales since 1993, for some parts it could even be the coldest since 1988, quite some feat in these times of rising temperatures...

As for tonight and tomorrow night expect some very low readings for late July. Tonight could see widespread minima in north England and Scotland of around 8 degrees coldest in sheltered valleys where 5 degrees could be a average figure, indeed some places may record 2 or 3 degrees but I doubt anything lower but still for the 29th July quite cold indeed.

For tomorrow night south of england and midlands will see a colder night whereas more northern areas won't be quite as cold as tonight. Again many inland parts of central southern england and Wales likely to see widespread minima below 10 degrees with some parts possibly recording 5 degrees locally below this.

All in all wouldn't noramlly expect to see such low minima for another month or so...

Last night several sites in N England/Scotland got to 5C, so 2/3C should be on the cards for sheltered locations.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[kold weather]

Not sure the mins will drop quite as low as the GFS is suggesting though no doubt some sites will be rather cool and maybe even quite cold tonight. Also while mins may not go quite as low as the GFS is forecasting widespread mins of 10-12C ios still decently below average for most of us at this time of year. We'll probably hold steady now at 15.4C, though a decent chance we could slip to 15.3C given the night-time mins do look quite low.

Edited July 29, 2007 by kold weather

[Snowyowl9]

Snowyowl9, that's the dewpoint chart.

You are right, however: 9c looks widespread and it may go as low as 5C in the North West.

Oh yes wrong chart.

I`ll post this instead not much difference by the looks of it.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Oh yes wrong chart.

I`ll post this instead not much difference by the looks of it. :lol:

Oh my! uly 31st and 2c? 7c widespread. July might just lean far enough for the line and record 15.3c.

[kold weather]

Temps in the end last night widely got down to about 8-9C with 4-5C in some sheltered spots in N.England and Scotland so a cold night for July. We should therefore see a drop in the CET today unless maxes are higher then progged but even then I can't see maxes getting high enough to prevent a slight drop in the CET again.

[Stu_London]

Temps in the end last night widely got down to about 8-9C with 4-5C in some sheltered spots in N.England and Scotland so a cold night for July. We should therefore see a drop in the CET today unless maxes are higher then progged but even then I can't see maxes getting high enough to prevent a slight drop in the CET again.

15.3C accoridng to climate-uk.com

Rounded down this time though

We may squeeze 15.2 if the tonight is cold as well, which would be 1.3C below average. Remarkable as the month did contain 1 warm (albeit quite short) humid spell and hasn't exactly been raging northerlies the rest of the time.

[Snowyowl9]

Temps did drop to 7.7c here so 1.3c lower than the last cool night this month that making that the coolest July night here with maxes looking a touch lower to yesterday perhaps.

[Anti-Mild]

As I mentioned on another thread, I recorded my lowest July reading since my own recording began here in 2000 with a chilly 5.5c and there's a possiblilty of beating that again tonight.

I should mention that I have established long ago that I live in a mini frost hollow and I often record temperatures lower than the surrounding areas.