July CET

[Stratos Ferric]

Certainly an impressively cool month by any standards, doubly so given recent warmth, but as point data little more than proof of the fact that the weather varies fairly widely around the period mean.

In terms of absolute variation from the monthly mean the coldest sice March 2006. In terms of variation relative to its own month's 30 period mean you have to go back to May 1996 though to find a bigger blip. July was the 310th warmest by this measure; May '96 comes in 331st warmest amongst all Mays.

The year on year drop places July at 67th in the all time list of absolute change, and second in the July list, bettered only by 1921-22 (18.5 - 13.7). You need to go back to Feb 1991 to find a larger fall from 12 months previously.

A noteworthy month by any standard.

[Stu_London]

Perhaps the most shocking statistic of all

According to graphs in Philip Edens site, In July 2007, out of a possible 31 days, only 1 was above the average in the CET zone in terms of maxima

[Weather-history]

August 2006-July 2007

September 2006 is the warmest month in that period with 16.8 and that hasn't happened since August 1865-July 1866 and its only the third instance of this happening.

The other August-July period where September was the warmest month is August 1729 to July 1730

[Spirit of 1740]

Hi Kold.

I am one of those philistines still using the 1961-90 averages as I believe that they represent a good benchmark for the pre-recent warming climate, whereas I think the 1971-2000 are a bit of a half-way house between the last 10 years' climate and that before the warming set-in. Anyway, that debate can run and run. :lol:

Therefore, by the 61-90 averages, July 2007 was colder than March 2006. However, I accept your point on December 2001, so just 3rd coldest since Jan 97 then. The one thing on that, though, is that the cold of that month was focussed on the CET area (the METO areal series were not as cold) whereas with this month I expect the CET value to be fully reflected in the more extensive series.

Well in fact, I was utterly wrong:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2007/july.html

The UK anomaly was a mere -0.2c and the one for England -0.3c. I have to this strikes me as a little strange. Yes, I know there is no reason to expect the CET anomaly to the same as the Areal series, but look at the anomalies for earlier this year - they all match really well.

Then, just when you get a really good July CET, the relationship massively breaks down and the Areal series produce a paltry anomaly.

What are other people's thoughts? Was July really just 0.2-0.3c below 61-90 and more or less equal to 2004 or was it 0.8-0.9c below and close to 1993?

Edited August 2, 2007 by Spirit of 1740

[Optimus Prime]

They always confuse the hell out with me, the way they work the CET out in the review. I don't take much notice of it.

I remember when they called December 2001 'close to average' and yet it said it was 0.9c below normal....hardly close to average!

Also like the way they mention 24c during the last few days of the month, yet only say a few chilly nights! I would had thought they would have put the single figure minima down, some places below 5c!

But hey, with the global warming spin in existance it might look bad

[Duncan McAlister]

What are other people's thoughts? Was July really just 0.2-0.3c below 61-90 and more or less equal to 2004 or was it 0.8-0.9c below and close to 1993? :lol:

I suppose it depends which series you value the most. There's one thing for sure, if it were a CET warm record the Met Office would be very quick to cite the long-running CET - as they did for April and 2006 as a whole

Maxima really did suffer in the CET zone though on wet days, compared with other regions like the SE. Still, console yourself with the fact that the UK average is -0.7C below the 71-00 average

[Don]

They always confuse the hell out with me, the way they work the CET out in the review. I don't take much notice of it.

I remember when they called December 2001 'close to average' and yet it said it was 0.9c below normal....hardly close to average!

Also like the way they mention 24c during the last few days of the month, yet only say a few chilly nights! I would had thought they would have put the single figure minima down, some places below 5c!

But hey, with the global warming spin in existance it might look bad

December 2001 had a CET of 3.6C making it 1.1C below the 61-90 average and 1.5C below the 71-00 average! Don't know how they called it a close to average month either.

Pity about the rest of that Winter.

[Duncan McAlister]

Another remarkable stat about this month - July had fewer days with above average maxima than January had below average!

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0701.htm

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0707.htm

(courtesy of Philip Eden)

[Geordiesnow]

Its nice to see we can still have below average months in this day and age. Its just ashame it can't happen in Winter, if people want a below average month in Winter then cold and dry it has to be rather than cold and wet(Which is the best scnario). Just prooves that the weather is not as prdictable as its seems and that talk of the MO of 2007 being the hottest year ever looks a bit silly now and that there winter forecasts at this stage should be taken as a pinch of salt.

[Spirit of 1740]

They always confuse the hell out with me, the way they work the CET out in the review. I don't take much notice of it.

I remember when they called December 2001 'close to average' and yet it said it was 0.9c below normal....hardly close to average!

Also like the way they mention 24c during the last few days of the month, yet only say a few chilly nights! I would had thought they would have put the single figure minima down, some places below 5c!

But hey, with the global warming spin in existance it might look bad

Yes, as you say, it could well be a conspiracy by METO to inflate the numbers to convince people of AGW.

[Gavin P]

LOL! It was a well below average month (in the CET zone) whatever spin the Met Office try and put on it. So rejoice (if you like cool/cold) and be happy. They don't come along very often these days.

[Spirit of 1740]

LOL! It was a well below average month (in the CET zone) whatever spin the Met Office try and put on it. So rejoice (if you like cool/cold) and be happy. They don't come along very often these days.

Early sign of TomP's 2012?

[Spirit of 1740]

The mystery deepens. According to Philip Eden:

... and it was the coolest July over the country as a whole since 1993.

http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0707.htm

[Stratos Ferric]

<br />The patterns weren't especially cold this month, I believe, particularly in terms of circulation and the amount of sunshine. Therefore, I believe that a July CET of 14c, as recorded in 1965, could still be possible today. <img src="style_emoticons/default/wink.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=" " border="0" alt="wink.gif" /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

It's an interesting moot point. 14C would have been, relatively, colder than any month since December 1996. In theory one could argue anything regarding temperature and potential, and these boards are full of the same most winters, however, eventually, amongst the repeated "if onlys", a pattern may emerge in which the realisation is seen that we just don't get the right synoptics any more, and that when we do SSTs are modifying the boundary. The right synoptics might have occurred in 1965, combined with all the other necessary factors, but the underlying point of climate change is that the baseline moves. I very much doubt, in the modern climate, a month such as [absolutely cool as] the one you postulate is possible: it's not off the radar, but it's hugely unlikely.

[Weather-history]

Interestingly, July 2007 was sunnier than the Julys of 2002 to 2005 including July 2003.

Fascinating considering Philip says this July was the 5th most cyclonic, the last few days of July really raised the July sunshine total.

[VillagePlank]

....

Excellent job, as always

[kold weather]

Yeah the last few days helped and bar a few days a lot of the rain fell in convective episodes where there was sunshine inbetween the showers which no doubt helped.

[Optimus Prime]

BBC just released their review for July and yet again they make the above/below average mistake;

Wales;

"Unsettled, with below average temperatures."

"0.7°C above the 1961-1990 average"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/yea...iew_wales.shtml

They must do it on purpose?

[Stratos Ferric]

...

They must do it on purpose?

Remember though, it's your BBC!

[Bobby]

The BBC are hopeless. I'd go to the Met Office site.

[Duncan McAlister]

BBC just released their review for July and yet again they make the above/below average mistake;

Wales;

"Unsettled, with below average temperatures."

"0.7°C above the 1961-1990 average"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/yea...iew_wales.shtml

They must do it on purpose?

I knew they'd done something like that before, and here it is!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/yea...06_review.shtml

March 2006

"0.6 °C above the 1961-1990 average, which is in the below average category. Coldest since 1996."

Really is beyond a joke.

[Hiya]

I knew they'd done something like that before, and here it is!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/yea...06_review.shtml

March 2006

"0.6 °C above the 1961-1990 average, which is in the below average category. Coldest since 1996."

Really is beyond a joke.

I'm surprised you managed to get to a past month, most links lead to the wrong place and there isn't a link for 2006 on most pages. Bit of a shambles.

[WBSH]

The BBC are confusing.

They have the July CET at 15.2c, as does Phillip Eden.

Yet the BBC reckon it was 0.3c below the average (England 61-90) when Eden has it as 1.2c below.

Is Eden comparing the average to 71-2000 because it doesnt make sense!

Edited August 3, 2007 by WBSH

[Duncan McAlister]

The BBC are confusing.

They have the July CET at 15.2c, as does Phillip Eden.

Yet the BBC reckon it was 0.3c below the average (England 61-90) when Eden has it as 1.2c below.

Is Eden comparing the average to 71-2000 because it doesnt make sense!

Are you confusing the England average with the CET? Because the CET had a far greater anomaly than England as a whole.

Hadley CET - 15.2 (1.3C below 71-00 average, 0.9C below 61-00 average).

[WBSH]

Are you confusing the England average with the CET? Because the CET had a far greater anomaly than England as a whole.

Hadley CET - 15.2 (1.3C below 71-00 average, 0.9C below 61-00 average).

It says it was 0.3c below the 1961-1990 average. Although it is talking about the England Mean Temperature Series rather than CET.