August CET

[Jack Wales]

Slightly better then June/July with more dry but not necessarily warm conditions. On the basis I expect us to be under a predominantly cool W/NW airflow I'll go for 16.6C.

Edited July 25, 2007 by Jack Wales

[Don]

OK, time for my August punt. My feelings are for a warmer than average month, so I'm going for 17.3C.

Edited July 25, 2007 by Don

[SP1986]

Actually I suggested above average, I do have an inclin it will be well below average now, but I will keep my original CET punt, because it may yet happen.

[VillagePlank]

Looks to me as if it will be just over 16C at the minute. Too early for a guesstimate, though.

[Lettucing Gutted]

August 2007 C.E.T 20C.

This August will be dry and the warmest on record based on the following factors:-

1 "As the nights get longer the heat gets stronger" between June 21nd and August 31st on average due to the seasonal lag between the commencement of shortening days and cooling land and sea temperatures.

2 Runaway Global warming

[summer blizzard]

August 2007 C.E.T 20C.

This August will be dry and the warmest on record based on the following factors:-

1 "As the nights get longer the heat gets stronger" between June 21nd and August 31st on average due to the seasonal lag between the commencement of shortening days and cooling land and sea temperatures.

2 Runaway Global warming

The thermal peak occurs on the 12th August on average, afterwards, its all downhill.

[NorthantsSnow]

My CET prediction for August would be 16.8C, a slightly above average month with close to average rainfall.

Edited July 26, 2007 by Dancc

[Weather-history]

August 2007 C.E.T 20C.

This August will be dry and the warmest on record based on the following factors:-

1 "As the nights get longer the heat gets stronger" between June 21nd and August 31st on average due to the seasonal lag between the commencement of shortening days and cooling land and sea temperatures.

2 Runaway Global warming

Craig

Lets be honest here, do you treat this seriously or as a big joke?

[Lettucing Gutted]

Craig

Lets be honest here, do you treat this seriously or as a big joke?

I do treat it seriously. I am very worried about the stability of our climate and the world's climate for that matter. I don't deny that global warming is real. I hope that the world stops it before it is to late...

[Optimus Prime]

Is it everywhere we go we have to read/hear about how people are concerned for our climate but in actual fact do a minimal ammount to change their ways? I.E not recycling properly, abusing their cars (driving a 1/4 mile up the road for milk) and throwing litter on the ground outside.

Anyway, my final prediction is 16.4c and with generally less rainfall then what we've had. And so still a warm summer but nothing out of the ordinary.

Edited July 26, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18.2C for me please.

Lots of hot weather in August, but not universally so.

Richard

I won't be calling the same as you this month....maybe one of us will get closer this time

BFTP

[Duncan McAlister]

Craig

Lets be honest here, do you treat this seriously or as a big joke?

I just admire his eternally optimistic nature

[Stu_London]

Time for my punt

Summary

Still wetter than average, but not as extreme as May/June/July

Sunshine levels recovering to average or locally above average

Expect the dominant wind direction in 1st half of the month to be NW (around HP to the west of the UK), no particular dominant direction in the second half.

Expecting a coolish start, one warm spell of 4-5 days and some cool minima at the end of the month with much longer nights.

CET Prediction 15.7C

[NorthYorksWeather]

16.3 for me

[Mark Bayley]

I think i will go for 16.5c. Slightly above average however i have a fealing that it might be below average

Rainfall above average but as stu london said i don't think it will be anything like june and july hopefully.

Sunshine levels slighly below average

Edited July 26, 2007 by mark bayley

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Until this month, my CET predictions have been way off. This month I predicted -0.5C which looks about right (or slightly on the warm side!) :o so I'll use the same methodology.

My prediction for July was influenced by Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies around the British Isles. SSTAs have a passive bias on local temperatures, they modify the temperature of the air that comes toward us, and therefore the CET.

In July, particularly the first half, the sea temps were cooler than average. That fact, plus a persistent maritime/northerly airmass helped deliever 2007's first below average CET.

Now August? SSTAs are warming again, in the North Sea and to the West of the British Isles and Ireland, where waters are as much as +1.5C above the average. To the south west of England and directly north of Scotland SSTAs are average or below average.

The pattern of recent charts has been toward warming SSTAs. Therefore for August I expect warmer SSTAs and a bias to warm of +1.5C for the CET.

This would result in a 17.7C CET. But, there is the dominant weather pattern to factor in. Will this be hot, continental, or cool, oceanic?

GFS runs currently suggest no pattern change. << closest smiley you can get to an umbrella!

CET +0.8C above average

Edited July 26, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[kold weather]

I have a funny feeling that the cooling of the SST's in July may well have been due to upwelling, it would make sense given how extremely unsettled June was and they are now recovering back though it'll be interesting to see whether or not the warm-up is delayed thanks to the low pressure dominated 5-7 days we've just had.

August is going to be tough to try and forecast because the pattern has now reached the stage where its becoming very stale. The northern blocking is finally weakening and is to be replaced for a little while by a Greeland low and though the jet is still very much zonal any southern blocking from the Azores that tries and moves NE may not find to omuch resistance as a few long range runs from various models have shown...

However equally other various global patterns seem to hint that while we may well see an attempted shift I think the global pattern will eventually try and force a synoptic re-bound back to the pattern of the last 45-60 days. Until that happens the Azores high may wlel get its chance to move in, how long it lasts depends on whether the re-bound happens at all and how long it takes.

The other wild card has to be the hurricane season and what tracks these take.

[ukmoose]

August CET

Still a few days to go but here's the list so far:

15.0C: fishdude

15.0C: Gavin P

15.5C: kold weather

15.7C: Stu London

16.0C: Rollo

16.0C: eddie

16.2C: beng

16.3C: Sunshine

16.3C: charlton north-downs

16.3C: vizzy2004

16.4C: Optimus Prime

16.5C: The PIT

16.5C: smith25

16.5C: mark bayley

16.6C: Jack Wales

16.7C: Anti-Mild

16.8C: Big Bear

16.8C: Dancc

16.8C: SteveB

16.9C: Soaring Hawk

17.0C: snowmaiden

17.0C: Atlantic Flamethrower

17.1C: Cymru

17.2C: summer blizzard

17.3C: Don

17.5C: Mr Data

18.1C: Stephen Prudence

18.2C: West is Best

20.0C: Craig Evans

As I was miles out last time, I might just hang on for a day or so yet to see how things are shaping nearer the time.

Moose

[kold weather]

Final change from me, as I said hard to call because of the attempted change, hard to know whether its a longer term pattern shift or just a blip. I'll raise mine this time to 17.3C, close to my first punt. Thats final from me!

[West is Best]

Final change from me, as I said hard to call because of the attempted change, hard to know whether its a longer term pattern shift or just a blip. I'll raise mine this time to 17.3C, close to my first punt. Thats final from me!

Starting to worry that my 18.2C is going to be too low. Tempted back to my original post 20C guess. Hmmm ....

Beautiful start to August looking distinctly possible anyway. Yummy. About time we had a nice August.

[ukmoose]

Final change from me, as I said hard to call because of the attempted change, hard to know whether its a longer term pattern shift or just a blip. I'll raise mine this time to 17.3C, close to my first punt. Thats final from me!

Is that 'final final' kold, or just, well, final?

Moose

[kold weather]

Hehehe, yeah that really is final final!

[ukmoose]

There you go, kold, final final from you:

15.0C: fishdude

15.0C: Gavin P

15.7C: Stu London

16.0C: Rollo

16.0C: eddie

16.2C: beng

16.3C: Sunshine

16.3C: charlton north-downs

16.3C: vizzy2004

16.4C: Optimus Prime

16.5C: The PIT

16.5C: smith25

16.5C: mark bayley

16.6C: Jack Wales

16.7C: Anti-Mild

16.8C: Big Bear

16.8C: Dancc

16.8C: SteveB

16.9C: Soaring Hawk

17.0C: snowmaiden

17.0C: Atlantic Flamethrower

17.1C: Cymru

17.2C: summer blizzard

17.3C: Don

17.3C: kold weather

17.5C: Mr Data

18.1C: Stephen Prudence

18.2C: West is Best

20.0C: Craig Evans

Moose

[Snowyowl9]

I maybe punting a little lower than I want at 16.7c but August will be much drier to recent months hope... but not necessarily overly warm with how cool/wet July has been and the soil is sodden with everything saturated or flooded,so cooler nights are very likely under clear skies with it been damper more dew.

And the last time 16.7 was reached was 1906 so it`s overdue.

Edited July 26, 2007 by Snowyowl9

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I'll go for 16.7

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