Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?

[Bobby]

How many record breaking months have there been in the past 3 or 4 years?

Well, in the last year, we have had:

- The warmest ever month (July, 2006)

- The warmest ever July (2006)

- The warmest ever day in many parts, including Wales. (July 19th, 2006)

- The warmest ever September (2006)

- The warmest ever Autumn (2006)

- The warmest ever 12 month period (this record still holds I believe)

- The warmest ever first half to a year (2007)

- 3rd warmest summer ever (think it was third, top 5 anyway. 2006)

- 2nd warmest winter ever (think it was 2nd, again, correct if wrong. 2006-2007)

- Warmest ever April ever (2007)

All of this in just over a year! Now, looking at those facts, I don't see any sort of sign of a cooling trend, do you?

[cheeky_monkey]

Well, in the last year, we have had:

- The warmest ever month (July, 2006)

- The warmest ever July (2006)

- The warmest ever day in many parts, including Wales. (July 19th, 2006)

- The warmest ever September (2006)

- The warmest ever Autumn (2006)

- The warmest ever 12 month period (this record still holds I believe)

- The warmest ever first half to a year (2007)

- 3rd warmest summer ever (think it was third, top 5 anyway. 2006)

- 2nd warmest winter ever (think it was 2nd, again, correct if wrong. 2006-2007)

- Warmest ever April ever (2007)

All of this in just over a year! Now, looking at those facts, I don't see any sort of sign of a cooling trend, do you?

the warmest winter on record in the south west

[noggin]

Well, in the last year, we have had:

All of this in just over a year! Now, looking at those facts, I don't see any sort of sign of a cooling trend, do you?

When have I said there is a cooling trend? I haven't and I am annoyed with you for always putting words into my mouth and implying that I have said things which I have NOT said.

Yes, there have been some hot months during 2006. Were there record-breaking hot months in 2004 or 2005?

I am only going to say this one more time:

I believe that any GW has plateau'd. I believe that this plateau was reached about 3/4 years ago. I do not know precisely when the plateau will end and when the cooling trend will start, but I firmly believe it will be within the next few years. Until then we will continue along this plateau and, yes, we may well still break the odd heat record occasionally, but these occasions will be fewer and further apart as time elapses. Then will come the time when the cooling trend really sets in.

I am now going to go outside and cool off for a bit!

[Duncan McAlister]

Um, in the CET zone, no less than three, I think - all of them, astonishingly, in the last 12 months: July 06 (nearly a whole degree over previous hottest)

Sorry to nitpick, but wasn't it just 0.2C higher than the previous warmest, 1983?

[noggin]

Hi Ribster,

Just what I have been saying on this forum for 2 years but have not had too much support.

Glad someone else thinks the same.

Quote SF

"Not sure rainfall is exceptional, though it's certainly memorable."

I have not had to top up my bird bath with water this year and that is "execptional"

John, you know you can rely on my support. (FWIW!)

...and I haven't had to top up my bird bath for months, either!

[Bobby]

When have I said there is a cooling trend? I haven't and I am annoyed with you for always putting words into my mouth and implying that I have said things which I have NOT said.

Yes, there have been some hot months during 2006. Were there record-breaking hot months in 2004 or 2005?

I am only going to say this one more time:

I believe that any GW has plateau'd. I believe that this plateau was reached about 3/4 years ago. I do not know precisely when the plateau will end and when the cooling trend will start, but I firmly believe it will be within the next few years. Until then we will continue along this plateau and, yes, we may well still break the odd heat record occasionally, but these occasions will be fewer and further apart as time elapses. Then will come the time when the cooling trend really sets in.

I am now going to go outside and cool off for a bit!

Well if you are saying the warming is at a plateau, you mean there is a cooling off in the warming. I don't see how you can say we are on a plateau after the astonishing warmth in the last 12 months or so.

[Eugene]

I am now going to go outside and cool off for a bit!

You won't need to stay out for long before you come back rushing in needing to warm up

[noggin]

Well if you are saying the warming is at a plateau, you mean there is a cooling off in the warming. I don't see how you can say we are on a plateau after the astonishing warmth in the last 12 months or so.

Because I am not just referring to the last 12 months or so. I am referring to the last 3 years.

You won't need to stay out for long before you come back rushing in needing to warm up

The kettle is on for a nice cup of tea!

[Duane S.]

Well if you are saying the warming is at a plateau, you mean there is a cooling off in the warming. I don't see how you can say we are on a plateau after the astonishing warmth in the last 12 months or so.

Yeah, just like the astonishing warmth we are currently experiencing.

I too believe we are beginning to plateau. The 'plateau' is likely to be a slow tapering off as opposed to a sharp instantly noticable one. Naturally there WILL be many further 'ups' and 'downs' along the way

[osmposm]

Sorry to nitpick, but wasn't it just 0.2C higher than the previous warmest, 1983?

You're quite right, Duncan. Completely missed that one when I was trawling visually through the CET record. Deeply embarrassing, as I greatly value the evidence of the accurate record, and dislike those who inflate and exaggerate to make a point. Apologies, everyone.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi Ribster,

Just what I have been saying on this forum for 2 years but have not had too much support.

Glad someone else thinks the same.

Quote SF

"Not sure rainfall is exceptional, though it's certainly memorable."

I have not had to top up my bird bath with water this year and that is "execptional"

John, ony you can gauge whether or not the birdbath measure is exceptional. Alas, the standard measuring equipment required for an official UKMO site is, if I recall correctly, NOT a bird bath.

Persistence of water is less a function of quantity of rainfall than it is of absence of drying weather. For this reason, and almost this reason ALONE, the net moisture in the ground in the UK is positive in winter and negative in summer. Annual precipitation varies slightly summer to winter, but the main difference is warmer ground in summer increasing net evaporation. The same will be true of your birdbath.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

I didn't say that temperatures have peaked, I said they'd plateau'd. There is a difference.

"An unprecedented run of record breaking months" you say? There have been a lot of above average months, but that is not the same as unprecedented record breaking months. Again, there is a difference. I wish you would read what I have written. How many record breaking months have there been in the past 3 or 4 years?

Struggling to find evidence of significant cooling? There has been record breakingcold and snow in the USA. There has been snow in South Africa for the past two years, which is the first they've had in decades. There are many other examples, but in order to prevent boredom I won't list them all.

Nice talking to you again. B)

Noggin, Noggin, Noggin;

oh that we had a long audit trail of posts on N-W, and before that Slowwatch. Year after year there are peole like you trailing out the same wishful thinking; "temperatures have peaked / plateaued" (you might want to explain the difference to me as it relates to this argument: either way they net out the same - your assertion is that temperature will go no higher; the subtle difference is whether they stay as high, or drop back: this subtlety is, to my mind, an irrlevance to your argument because it is, in my view, almost certainly the case that in four or five years' time we will be higher still than we are now. Even so, there will still be people like you, suggesting things have peaked).

To your point regarding whther or not we have unprecedented record breaking in the past year (let alone the past 3 or 4). You might be careful to check you facts before challenging lest you appear rather silly.

In a temperature record stretching back 350 years, with twelve months in a year, you might ordinarily expect a current record to have been set once every thirty years or so (350/12). In the last twelve months alone we have set three new monthly records, as well as seasonal records, the annual record and, repeatedly, new records for a rolling 12 month period. On monthly records alone we have had almost a century's worth of records in less than a year. If you can find me a point in the data set (once it was well established) when such a run of warm records occurred, with an equal probablilty, then I will give you that it's not unprecedented. However, since you will not be able to - I'll save you the bother of looking - we'll leave it at the fact that the past year alone, since your claimed "plateau" comment, quite literally is unprecedented. Sorry, you can't argue with facts.

As to one off snowfall events and the like, there are plenty of romantic snow fans on here all the time clinging to the flotsam and jetsom that occasionally gets thrown up; we say it time and over, even in a warming global climate there is stilla lot of variation around the mean; there wil continue to be warm and cold events, but the point is that the former slowly become more frequent (this isn't to the same as persistent) and extreme (i.e. records are broken more frequrntly, more widely); the latterless frequent and less extreme.

Against you localised short-lived snowfall in Jo'berg see the exceptional persistent warmth in SE Europe.

I would love to see cold return, but unlike several on here who have the blindness of the committed fan, I prefer to simply survey the facts as they occur and report accordingly. That may or may not make unpleasant reading to fans of cold, just like the financial morass surrounding Leeds United upsets me as a fan; but facts is facts. Leeds aren't going to win the League this year, or any time soon, for all that I might wish them to. Maybe one or two of the cold "fans" needs to take an equally robust approach to assessing where our climate is headed just now.

we are now in the top 3 of MAY JUNE JULY wettest Periods since records began & after this weekend look to be in pole postition - Id say that is exceptional V the norm...

...S

Agree. The key words, in my (as ever) carefully chosen phrasing were "not sure" (I hadn't checked the data) and "yet" (recognising that there was every chance of things changing).

Sorry SF but you are simply quite wrong. This rainfall is clearly 'exceptional' and reaching unprecedented...the record is under severe threat no doubt.

Its a bit like saying last year was just memorable...I mean it didn't break all records did it?

As for being selective its precisely what you are doing with warmth. Look south of the equator and there massive amounts of cold records being tumbled easily balancing out any warmth. Continued GW? We still haven't exceeded 1998....and we won't this year either.

BFTP

Blast. First up, read CARFEULLY what I write please (see my response to Steve, above). June didn't break the national record, July doesn't look like it will either. As Steve suggests, the period rainfall clearly is heading towards being exceptional. Perhaps it depends on where we draw the line for "exceptional" being "much greater than usual".

Re GW, I don't believe I mentioned GW. The argument in this thread has largely been reference the UK climate; it is the cold fans who keep introducing spurious references to one off examples of cold here and there as if they are proof of some impending ice age. Fans are, by their definition, selectively blind to facts.

[osmposm]

Yes, there have been some hot months during 2006. Were there record-breaking hot months in 2004 or 2005?.........I believe that any GW has plateau'd. I believe that this plateau was reached about 3/4 years ago.

A plateau is a high point reached, followed by a period when it stays for a while at this high level, but does not go significantly or regularly higher or lower. Do I understand this correctly?

If the plateau was reached 3-4 years ago, why have we since then had three monthly highest-ever figures in the CET record, all three of them in a single 12 month period - a pretty potent sign that any plateau is being regularly exceeded, I'd have thought? 2006 - the average for the whole year, not just a couple of freak months - was the warmest-ever. 2nd half 2006/first half 2007 was again a record, by a huge margin. How can these be part of a plateau?

If you were to suggest that 2006-7 marks the beginning of a plateau, that would at least be possible, and a reasonable statement of faith (in the absence of any evidence to the contrary). But to believe that the plateau began in about 2004 is to have faith in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Oh, and I just wondered if you had any reflections on my quite detailed comments about your cold weather evidence from the US and South Africa?

[Stratos Ferric]

A plateau is a high point reached, followed by a period when it stays for a while at this high level, but does not go significantly or regularly higher or lower. Do I understand this correctly?

Oh, and I just wondered if you had any reflections on my quite detailed comments about your cold weather evidence from the US and South Africa?

1 - but if you draw the plot then twist it around by say, 20 degrees clockwise, you can create a plateau. I've also seen people do amusing things with the vertical axis at times, and even rub out points that didn't align with what the trend 'should be'.

2 - don't hold your breath.

[TEITS]

I do not think any of us deny there is a warming trend.

Where my doubts are is the cause of this and this assumption that we are going to get warmer & warmer. Nobody on this planet can say this is going to be the case and if they do they are either extremely arrogant or related to Nostradamus!.

There are some on this forum who are as bad as the media when it comes to blaming our weather on GW. If there are floods GW is to blame, if there are heatwaves GW is to blame and the same could be said for gales, thunderstorms, tornados. Only recently an article on my local newspaper called a bolt of lightning freaky weather, and yet what on earth is freaky about a thunderstorm in July B) . Who remembers the media frenzy during the 90's after Jan/Feb storms when they said these atlantic storms will become more frequent & intense in the future due to GW. Well correct me if im wrong but since then we haven't seen the frequency or intensity change in these winter LP's and if anything the reverse could be said for my region anyway.

[Bobby]

I do not think any of us deny there is a warming trend.

Where my doubts are is the cause of this and this assumption that we are going to get warmer & warmer. Nobody on this planet can say this is going to be the case and if they do they are either extremely arrogant or related to Nostradamus!.

There are some on this forum who are as bad as the media when it comes to blaming our weather on GW. If there are floods GW is to blame, if there are heatwaves GW is to blame and the same could be said for gales, thunderstorms, tornados. Only recently an article on my local newspaper called a bolt of lightning freaky weather, and yet what on earth is freaky about a thunderstorm in July B) . Who remembers the media frenzy during the 90's after Jan/Feb storms when they said these atlantic storms will become more frequent & intense in the future due to GW. Well correct me if im wrong but since then we haven't seen the frequency or intensity change in these winter LP's and if anything the reverse could be said for my region anyway.

I don't think anybody with sense is saying GW caused a particular event, just that warming is going to make such events more frequent and more extreme in the future. Our climate is warming and more heat = more energy = more evaporation = more rain.

[ribster]

Hi Ribster,

Just what I have been saying on this forum for 2 years but have not had too much support.

Glad someone else thinks the same. :huh:

Quote SF

"Not sure rainfall is exceptional, though it's certainly memorable."

I have not had to top up my bird bath with water this year and that is "execptional"

Hi John, well I can assure you that you are not alone! As for unexceptional rainfall - must be from another planet!

I do not think any of us deny there is a warming trend.

Where my doubts are is the cause of this and this assumption that we are going to get warmer & warmer. Nobody on this planet can say this is going to be the case and if they do they are either extremely arrogant or related to Nostradamus!.

Absolutely! Again, back to my earlier point, I'm amazed that people can become so brainwashed, are we to question nothing? Has science never been wrong? The whole scientific community doesn't agree anyway. Theres plenty of evidence to suggest that the planet has been both alot cooler and a lot warmer than it is now, I see no reason why that cycle should change. There are bound to be fluctuations. Yet again, man seems to think he is the be all and end all on this planet!

[Stratos Ferric]

...Yet again, man seems to think he is the be all and end all on this planet!

I can't see anywhere on this thread where this point has been made, mentioned, or even inferred, nor, as Magpie points out, can I recall GW being mentioned by anybody other than those most inclined to argue against it.

I cannot better Magpie's pithy observation: overall the climate is starting to behave as generally projected; warmer and wetter.

[ribster]

I can't see anywhere on this thread where this point has been made, mentioned, or even inferred, nor, as Magpie points out, can I recall GW being mentioned by anybody other than those most inclined to argue against it.

I cannot better Magpie's pithy observation: overall the climate is starting to behave as generally projected; warmer and wetter.

Firstly, it is in implicit in some of the posts on here - that's a matter of opinion, so don't ask me to provide evidence for such. I believe that man cannot and will not change the weather, to think that he can is pure arrogance. On which point I might add, I thought your response to noggin was rather strong, if not patronising. I don't remember reading any terms and conditions when signing up to this forum that opinion was forbidden, nor that it had to be backed up with evidence of any kind. If someone wants to make a statement about their belief, an opinion or a mere assertion, then they should be free to do so.

I believe GW was brought into the conversation because it has a bearing on where we are now. I don't think anyone denies that GW has/is occurring, just the causes. However, the 'experts' would have us believe that the warming is set to continue - but the thread is about whether we have reached a turning point and are about to enter a cooling period, hence it's no suprise that GW has been referred to. We are due to enter a cooling period, but instead of going over the crest and down the other side of the hill, many scientists believe that we will keep on up the hill. I therefore think it's an entirely relevant and worthy thread.

[Stratos Ferric]

Firstly, it is in implicit in some of the posts on here - that's a matter of opinion, so don't ask me to provide evidence for such. I believe that man cannot and will not change the weather, to think that he can is pure arrogance. On which point I might add, I thought your response to noggin was rather strong, if not patronising. I don't remember reading any terms and conditions when signing up to this forum that opinion was forbidden, nor that it had to be backed up with evidence of any kind. If someone wants to make a statement about their belief, an opinion or a mere assertion, then they should be free to do so.

I believe GW was brought into the conversation because it has a bearing on where we are now. I don't think anyone denies that GW has/is occurring, just the causes. However, the 'experts' would have us believe that the warming is set to continue - but the thread is about whether we have reached a turning point and are about to enter a cooling period, hence it's no suprise that GW has been referred to. We are due to enter a cooling period, but instead of going over the crest and down the other side of the hill, many scientists believe that we will keep on up the hill. I therefore think it's an entirely relevant and worthy thread.

There are plenty of threads on here where GW is debated ad nauseaum, so let's leave causes out of here. Noggin is entitled to the view that it's plateaued, and I don't think I've suggest (s)he be denied that view have I? What I HAVE done is point out that the reasoning presented for that view (go back and read if you haven't done) is not just slightly flawed, but completely, totally and uterly wrong.

My repsonse to Noggin was, if anything, not strong enough. Noggin is entitled to an opinion, and if I can show that that opinion is wrong then I think I'm just as entitled to show that (s)he's wrong - or shold we all just be free to say whatever we want without any correction? All I have done was show facts to reinforce what was originally a perfectly level rebuttal that (s)he then challenged. Or are you also in the "let's not let facts get in the way of a good opinion" club?

Noggin asserted that (s)he had made a comment three years ago that temperatures had plateau(d) - and therefore peaked as well by inference. I was not alone in blowing a rather large factual hole in that point. If Noggin is going to be careless enough to make comments like "show me the records in the past year" when we've just had the warmest year on record in the UK then, frankly, (s)he deserves everything (s)he gets.

[Duane S.]

SF, your posts are starting show increasing amounts of desperation with every one made.

A shame, as before you started throwing your toys out of the pram I had a lot of respect for what you had to say and your undoubted knowledge.

[Terminal Moraine]

There has been some discussion in the preceeding posts about the exceptional ( or otherwise ) nature of the recent rainfall and,as the dictionary definition of 'exceptional' is nothing more exciting than ' apart from the norm' or 'standing apart', then perhaps this is justified; so too would be 'excessive'

As the common perception of 'exceptional' in this case is taken to mean a very rare or unprecedented event then perhaps it bears greater scrutiny.

In so far as the Central England Rainfall Series is concerned ( we'll use this as the benchmark as it goes back far enough ) the period May-July 2007 has certainly been unprecedented, with regard to the total amount of rainfall, as it tops the list. The June/July period could certainly be regarded as unusual as it now lies 7th out of about 240 but obviously not unprecedented as there are 6 years which were wetter, though with 10 days to go in July that could change.

What about the individual rainfall events? Apart from a general run of unsettled and showery weather since about June 12th, and ignoring localised severe thunderstorms, there have been two notable events. The first was the heavy rainfall of July 25th/26th over the north Midlands and parts of northern and north east England and the second was that of yesterday over central southern England and the south and west midlands and Wales.

In the first instance there were rainfall totals between 50 and 100mm over an area from Derbyshire, east to Lincolnshire and north into Yorkshire and in the most recent there were totals between about 50 and 130mm, the largest totals being in Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Worcestershire and Herefordshire.

For many of those affected by the flooding and witnessing the prolonged and heavy rainfall it will have been a once in a lifetime experience, but how unusual are such individual events?

A quick look through the back copes of British Rainfall reveals, not that unusual.

I picked out 11 copies almost at random ( I say almost because in a couple of the years I suspected there may have been heavy rainfall events and picked those deliberately ) and in 6 of those years there were summer rainfall events to rival those of this year. I ignored the usually wet areas of the country such as the mountains of Wales and north west England and concentrated only on the relatively low lying and drier areas of the country.

The events were; July 23rd 1903, rainfall totals of 65-112mm over 10,000 square miles of south east England

August 29th 1916; 50-111 mm over 23,300 square miles of south east England

August 6th/7th 1922; 75-127 mm over the East Midlands

May 21st 1932; 50-100mm over the Midlands from Staffordshire to Yorkshire

July 15th 1937; 50-146 mm from the south west Midlands to Yorkshire

August 12th 1957; 50-98 mm from London, through the Midlands to Shropshire.

If I'd looked through all 100 volumes or so, I've no doubt there would have been many more instances. The anecdotal evidence accompanying the data had all the usual reports of communications disruption, flooded homes and businesses and ruined crops, so no change there then.

So, the recent individual rainfall events are not that unusual for the country as a whole, (although unusual for the actual areas directly affected ) but the impact on modern society is probably greater as we like to think we are less vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather than our forebears and seem to be more shocked by it when we are directly affected. Also, with the complexity of the modern transport and communications infrastructure, there is a lot more to go wrong and the chaos is greater than in the past.

It is a little more unusual to get two such events within the same summer,albeit not affecting the same areas, and if there were to be a third it would be very unusual.

In summary then I suggest that the May/July rainfall total is unprecedented in the historical record.

The June/July total is,at the moment, unusual.

The recent rainfall events are noteworthy, possibly unprecedented at a local level, but not unusual at a national level with regard to the amounts of rain falling.

It is unusual that two such events should occur within just over a month.

If any more such events occur during what remains of the summer I will review the terminology accordingly.

T.M

[January Snowstorm]

Did anyone consider the possibility that the current relentless rainfall could be manmade

There was a program recently that showed how certain powerful countries could have the ability to control hurricanes by a thing called seeding which helps low pressure systems to develop and steer hurricanes away from shore.

This practice was seemingly abandoned a few years back because of the fears of trying to control mother nature.

Was it abandoned though?

Anything is possible guys and mother nature normally balances the weather out....................unless of course

[PB22]

I for one don't see anything in this summer that could be classified as a turning point. Yes it has been much wetter than normal. Yes it has been cooler than recent summers, but even so June was above average still. We still have August to come, but I would so far classify Summer 2007 as "a normal British summer", although we have had a couple of exceptional rain events.

What has changed in my opinion is how so many people nowadays seem to think that Britain has hot, dry summers, every summer!

[January Snowstorm]

What has changed in my opinion is how so many people nowadays seem to think that Britain has hot, dry summers, every summer!

Some places have had rainfall every day for over 70days

I think one would struggle to find a year that beats that in Summer

Don't forget Paul we had a poor Summer only a couple of years ago.

This one has been extraordinary