Constant switching between drought and deluge?

[Andy Bown]

Seems to be happening again. After a virtually dry September there was 61.5mm of rain between 24 Sept and 1 Oct inclusive, not a worthwhile drop since then and possibly for a number of days to some.

[The PIT]

Seems to be happening again. After a virtually dry September there was 61.5mm of rain between 24 Sept and 1 Oct inclusive, not a worthwhile drop since then and possibly for a number of days to some.

Not here mate stuck in a fairly dry rut. Octobers looking like it's going to be dry as well.

[damianslaw]

Not here mate stuck in a fairly dry rut. Octobers looking like it's going to be dry as well.

Yes October has started on a fairly dry note here in Tyne and Wear, some rain on the 2nd/3rd night and spits and spots today but other than that nothing.

It has also got off to a very sunny start, although next week is now looking rather cloudy in the main.

[Weather-history]

Could well be the driest September-October period since 1985

Edited October 28, 2007 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

Well unless it chucks it down overnight and tomorrow it's going to be the 3rd driest October we've recorded since 1955.

Sooner or later the dry trend better end if it's a dry winter they'll be water shortages this summer.

[Bottesford]

Well unless it chucks it down overnight and tomorrow it's going to be the 3rd driest October we've recorded since 1955.

Sooner or later the dry trend better end if it's a dry winter they'll be water shortages this summer.

Unless its another wet summer (or very wet spring). Fingers crossed we get the rain we need during winter or early spring and not in summer again!

[The PIT]

One of the heaviest rainfalls of the month yesterday. 3.2MM wow.

[Weather-history]

Driest autumns on record for England and Wales

128.6 1978

131.9 1817

138.6 1805

143.8 1788

147.2 1784

165.2 1904

165.5 1985

167.6 1851

168.0 1879

169.4 1884

170.3 1834

173.8 1908

180.0 1809

182.3 1956

183.3 1972

183.9 1803

183.9 1973

[summer blizzard]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...tics/ewrain.txt

Looks like both September and October will of recorded around 50mm each, so we are unlikely to take the record, though we can still record 60mm+ and record a top ten finish, more than possible.

[Weather-history]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...tics/ewrain.txt

Looks like both September and October will of recorded around 50mm each, so we are unlikely to take the record, though we can still record 60mm+ and record a top ten finish, more than possible.

Thats the Areal series, the figures I have posted are based on the 1766 series. In that September is around 45mm but like you said it doesn't seem likely.

[summer blizzard]

Could you post the link please???

[The PIT]

And still no real rain about and doesn't look like any in the near future either.

[Weather-history]

Could you post the link please???

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle.../HadEWP_act.txt

The average rainfall for autumn for England and Wales is about 257mm, so a drier than average autumn looks likely.

8th wettest summer on record followed by a top 10 driest autumn could be on the cards.

[reef]

THe strange trend continues.

We've only recorded 10 days in Autumn so far with more than 1mm of precipitation and only 2mm in the last 26 days! It really has been a remarkably dry Autumn which is all the more perculiar as it came after the wettest Summer in living memory!

[SP1986]

THe strange trend continues.

We've only recorded 10 days in Autumn so far with more than 1mm of precipitation and only 2mm in the last 26 days! It really has been a remarkably dry Autumn which is all the more perculiar as it came after the wettest Summer in living memory!

It could be a case of cycles, within cycles, or some kind of intra-cyclic pattern.

For example its dry now, wet in the summer, and small variations in between.

[Stratos Ferric]

THe strange trend continues.

We've only recorded 10 days in Autumn so far with more than 1mm of precipitation and only 2mm in the last 26 days! It really has been a remarkably dry Autumn which is all the more perculiar as it came after the wettest Summer in living memory!

I'm not sure it is peculiar really. I posted a few times in late August / early September that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dry autumn; it's no different really to the cool - extremely warm - cool cycle we've been through; over the medium term the weather is going to trend towards the climatic norm far more often than not.

[Roger J Smith]

Would look for the cause being in the realm of less energetic circulation in general, what you see is what you get for weeks at a time. Slow shifting of large-scale features without the usual sharp week-to-week variations in a more active flow.

Frankly, though, isn't this one of the two prime modalities of the western European climate, either long periods of quasi-stationary upper features, or a very mobile pattern with a strong jet? We get the same sort of thing here too, I remember that spring-summer 2006 was bone dry and very warm (and sunny) lasting to about mid-October, then it all changed to wet, stormy and cool for about six months, and really that pattern never broke through the summer but was just modified by the usual developments in the eastern Pacific that guarantee us at least a half decent summer here every year (the worst it ever gets here for rainfall is about what you would call average, and we get a lot of dry summers).

[Weather-history]

Driest September-October since 1985

Driest autumns on record for England and Wales

98.3 2007 (up to 3rd November)

128.6 1978

131.9 1817

138.6 1805

143.8 1788

147.2 1784

165.2 1904

165.5 1985

167.6 1851

168.0 1879

169.4 1884

170.3 1834

173.8 1908

180.0 1809

182.3 1956

183.3 1972

183.9 1803

183.9 1973

Edited November 5, 2007 by Mr_Data

[MAF]

well it certainly looks record breaking this autumn then. unless we have a few huge deluges the amount of rain seems to be really low.

when does the recording finish Mr D?? as there is only a 30mm difference between current figures and 1978. is there much more time left for the 1978 low to be beaten?

[Terminal Moraine]

when does the recording finish Mr D?? as there is only a 30mm difference between current figures and 1978. is there much more time left for the 1978 low to be beaten?

0900 on December 1st is the meteorological end of autumn so there's plenty of time left. I very much doubt the total will come in lower than in 1978 but it could well finish in the top 15.

T.M

[The PIT]

Interesting variation. Autumn 1978 for us was fairly wet 307.9mm while Autumn 1975 was the driest at the present time with 93.7mm if it stays fairly dry until the end of next week that record for us will be under threat.

Funny at one time I was talking about the wettest year ever recorded for us. Won't happen now which shows what a strange year it's been.

[Weather-history]

Driest autumns on record for England and Wales

98.9 2007 (up to 5th November)

128.6 1978

131.9 1817

138.6 1805

143.8 1788

147.2 1784

165.2 1904

165.5 1985

167.6 1851

168.0 1879

169.4 1884

170.3 1834

173.8 1908

180.0 1809

182.3 1956

183.3 1972

183.9 1803

183.9 1973

[Weather-history]

Driest autumns on record for England and Wales

99.4 2007 (up to 7th November)

128.6 1978

131.9 1817

138.6 1805

143.8 1788

147.2 1784

165.2 1904

165.5 1985

167.6 1851

168.0 1879

169.4 1884

170.3 1834

173.8 1908

180.0 1809

182.3 1956

183.3 1972

183.9 1803

183.9 1973

So up to the 7th of November, its the driest since 1978. By the 7th of November 1985, it was 112mm

[Weather-history]

Here's a remarkable quirk, the June rainfall total for England and Wales taken from the 1766 series is the sum total of August's, September's and October's rainfall.

June: 154.7mm

August+September+October: 154.7mm

[Altohumorous]

I have noticed this trend since September, and by the 2nd half of October I knew it was something remarkable. By now it's heading towards quite a phenomenon, considering Autumn is one of the wettest times of the year (by the averages) and also a time when rain tends to be quite frequent, though not as intense as in summer or spring.

I dont have any figures for here, but my overall impression is that further west in these islands has been drier than further east. I cant recall a drier period at this time of year, and adding in the 2nd half of August, we have now had an extremely dry 3 month period. The next couple of weeks look like possibly could go either way - either cold & mostly dry, with maybe some showery precipitation, or quite wet and probably cold, though again it looks borderline whether it will be persistant rain bands, or more showery. Overall, high potential for the very dry theme to continue

I have noticed this trend since September, and by the 2nd half of October I knew it was something remarkable. By now it's heading towards quite a phenomenon, considering Autumn is one of the wettest times of the year (by the averages) and also a time when rain tends to be quite frequent, though not as intense as in summer or spring.

I dont have any figures for here, but my overall impression is that further west in these islands has been drier than further east. I cant recall a drier period at this time of year, and adding in the 2nd half of August, we have now had an extremely dry 3 month period. The next couple of weeks look like possibly could go either way - either cold & mostly dry, with maybe some showery precipitation, or quite wet and probably cold, though again it looks borderline whether it will be persistant rain bands, or more showery. Overall, high potential for the very dry theme to continue