Tuesday/Wednesday's Event

[SP1986]

I thought it would be ideal to start a new thread about Tuesdays potential weather event, with heavy rain and strong winds. This isnt a model thread so its just a thread to talk about distribution, intensity, and updates from alerts etc. I think it may well be useful in the next few days, and the other reason its on here and not the extreme weather bit, is because this tends to be a more viewed forum, so people will have time to read, and presumably prepare for the event!

Met Office have issued an alert first of all, which is no surprise given what is being predicted.

Personally around my stretch of coastline, I think wind will be the most problematic feature, as is being predicted, not so much the rain, which we may escape the worst of..

However the dry spell has come in as a lifeline for the westcountry at this stage.

[grab my graupel]

This can't be too far from you though Steve can it? for Tuesday evening

[SP1986]

This can't be too far from you though Steve can it? for Tuesday evening

I think there is rain in the offing here, but the welsh mountains will probably block most of it, tends to happen especially when there is a particularly warm airmass. In fact the one thing I hadnt thought about is, that with SW'ly winds driving in to the UK and a rather warm airmass - we could both experience pretty strong fohn effects!

[NorthantsSnow]

I'm still a bit shocked that Francis Wilson is talking about flooding as if it's inevitable next week on Sky News Weather. Although it can't be ruled out...his forecast tonight was especially grim I thought.

[grab my graupel]

I think there is rain in the offing here, but the welsh mountains will probably block most of it, tends to happen especially when there is a particularly warm airmass. In fact the one thing I hadnt thought about is, that with SW'ly winds driving in to the UK and a rather warm airmass - we could both experience pretty strong fohn effects!

To be honest with you Steve, I am actually looking forward to this event.

Not that I wish anyone any harm, but I have got to admit I was quietly pleased when

I got up thismorning and saw the depth of the Low pressure.

Does anyone else feel like I do about next week , or am I on my own?

Edited August 11, 2007 by grab my graupels

[SP1986]

To be honest with you Steve, I am actually looking forward to this event.

Not that I wish anyone any harm, but I have got to admit I was quietly pleased when

I got up thismorning and saw the depth of the Low pressure.

I'll admit - so am I, but then again I live on a sandstone ridge, even of 500mm of rain fell in 2 hours, it wouldnt effect here particularly. It's exciting though, and yes it poses problems, I'm certain you understand that, and I certainly do, but my way of thinking is if you cant beat weather, enjoy it...

The things I am looking forward to:

Wind

Currently predicted to be around 50-70mph around southern and western coasts, these windspeeds are unheard of in the UK in August, except in 1956/7?

The Airmass means that the wind will be warm at first, indeed strong, but warm winds at first on Tuesday, very exciting potential.

Synoptic Extremes

The fact there is currently suggested, going to be a very tight gradient between warm and cool air, some impressive winds, and temperature differences therefore.

Also the chance we could see some cyclogenesis occurring which is always exciting to me.

So I agree a very exciting event

[PersianPaladin]

I'm still a bit shocked that Francis Wilson is talking about flooding as if it's inevitable next week on Sky News Weather. Although it can't be ruled out...his forecast tonight was especially grim I thought.

Its Francis Wilson....he likes to EXCITE people in his forecasts.

Over the top though; and I see no real worry for flooding except for localised flooding in a few select western areas. Much depends on how much the jet-streak intensifies over the UK on Monday and into Tuesday; the degree of jet-streak amplitude and the resultant enhancement of vorticity. The result of the evolution of the upper flow and its bowing orientation helps to develop a shortwave circulation to the north-east of Scotland, gradually merging with the main circulation and drawing in milder air into the path of the 'cold' sector of the main depression over the UK. This is affectivley modified returning PM air and hence some very heavy rain for south-west areas and high winds for a few hours at first, gradually transferring ENE as the depression heads north-eastwards....with cooler pm winds blown in on the back-edge of the depression by the later part of next week with heavy showers for western areas.

All above is of course...based on the 18z and liable to considerable change though. Its a pretty complex picture by Tuesday night in terms of how many fronts and troughs likely involved; as well as the degree of convective instability that develops after the main rainband. Not enough CAPE projected at the moment, but I would think quite a buoyant atmosphere at mid-levels towards Tuesday night.

In short....unsettled....and quite academic really temperature wise; although out of the wind and rain it should feel fairly pleasant (unless you live in a wind-funnel valley or the Pennines).

I do suspect though that if we can get a foehn going...like Stephen P has said; we could get some locally very strong gusts (aided as well by wet-downbursts at 300hpa). Perhaps a few gusts strong enough to rip off human flesh!

Edited August 11, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[SP1986]

Perhaps a few gusts strong enough to rip off human flesh!

that was pretty funny it has to be said

[PersianPaladin]

that was pretty funny it has to be said

Lol.

Francis Wilson eat yer heart out.

[Optimus Prime]

It might even be strong enough to lift the infamous crisp packet mentioned during the last 'non-event'.

[PersianPaladin]

It might even be strong enough to lift the infamous crisp packet mentioned during the last 'non-event'.

Which one was that then?

[Optimus Prime]

Which one was that then?

Haha you might not remember.

A good year or so ago a storm (in winter I think) was ramped up like you'll never no. The Metoffice had strong wind warning out upto/on the actual event day. We were all sitting expecting strong winds yet all we got was drizzly rain and minor surface water.

I remember a member mentioning a gust of wind was powerful enough to wisp a crisp packet of the ground and blow it several feet away. I think it was said to take the mick out of the Metoffice for on one occasion they got the wind totally wrong *cough*

It was funnier at the time.

[PersianPaladin]

Haha you might not remember.

A good year or so ago a storm (in winter I think) was ramped up like you'll never no. The Metoffice had strong wind warning out upto/on the actual event day. We were all sitting expecting strong winds yet all we got was drizzly rain and minor surface water.

I remember a member mentioning a gust of wind was powerful enough to wisp a crisp packet of the ground and blow it several feet away. I think it was said to take the mick out of the Metoffice for on one occasion they got the wind totally wrong *cough*

It was funnier at the time.

Hahahahh

I remember that now. Who said that?

[grab my graupel]

This chart dosen't make good viewing for the Midlands. Hopefully

things might have changed by then.

Hahahahh

I remember that now. Who said that?

Yes I remember that too P.P. It wasn't Nick Sussex was it?

Edited August 11, 2007 by grab my graupels

[Terminal Moraine]

To be honest with you Steve, I am actually looking forward to this event.

Not that I wish anyone any harm, but I have got to admit I was quietly pleased when

I got up thismorning and saw the depth of the Low pressure.

Does anyone else feel like I do about next week , or am I on my own?

You're certainly not on your own, GMG, I live and breathe for this type of weather in summer. One of these each week from May to September would do me nicely.

T.M

[tinybill]

even the this program is indicating some bad weather,!! PS note the first hurricane of the season!

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13

This is the first warning of disruption due to Severe Gales and Heavy Rain. The Met Office is forecasting a period of very windy and wet weather to affect the UK during Tuesday and Wednesday next week. At this stage, it seems that southern and western coastal areas will see the strongest winds with severe gales and gusts of 60-70mph. The strong winds will be accompanied by periods of heavy rain giving 20-30mm in places, and 50mm or more over western hills. Predicted wind speeds could lead to minor damage in exposed locations and, combined with heavy rain, could cause disruption to outdoor activities.

Issued at: 1208 Fri 10 Aug

Edited August 11, 2007 by tinybill

[PB22]

This is a shocking FAX chart issued this morning for Tuesday: http://83.138.146.134/fax/PPVL89.png

[grab my graupel]

This is a shocking FAX chart issued this morning for Tuesday: http://83.138.146.134/fax/PPVL89.png

Now that is more like it. I like that chart

[kold weather]

That is a very poor chart indeed Paul and one that must lead to concerns of flooding again given one front after another, there wouldn't be any rest inbetween the fronts with GFS widely forecasting 40-50MM across the southern half of the country. I honestly think tohugh the winds won't be that much of an issue, esp if the ssytem does develop a secondary depression that should shunt the worst winds off-shore.

[saint]

i have noticed the met warnings are till midday on wednesday so it could go anywhere?

[Costa Del Fal]

This chart dosen't make good viewing for the Midlands. Hopefully

things might have changed by then.

Yes I remember that too P.P. It wasn't Nick Sussex was it?

What i dont like about that chart is that they use Orange and Red Colours for some of Little amounts of Rainfall.

I mean why is like 10mm dark orange when it would suit a Blue better.

And Red for like 30mm? That should be more like 75mm.

Oh well, Looking Wet and Windy for me on Tuesday as im off Camoing.

[inkermanhero]

Let's not forget that the Fastnet Ocean Yacht Race starts tomorrow (Sunday) morning. They have to cover over 600nm non-stop from Cowes to SW Ireland and back to Plymouth, and many boats from this year's fleet of over 300 yachts will be right in the path of this lot Tuesday/Wednesday. The winds will matter a lot to them and we must hope that there are no "low-pressure bombs" of the sort that caused the '79 Fastnet disaster in which 15 yachtsmen died out there between Land's End and the southern Irish coast.

[Nick F]

Think the MetO warnings are a bit out of touch as they jumped the gun a bit IMO, as the emphasis by the models this morning so far, particularly GFS, has been to shift low pressure and the rain further South, with Wales, and much of England south of a line from Liverpool to the Humber with the threat of heavy rain, strong winds look reserved for the SW and English Channel. The low is now modelled to move NE across Sern/Central England, though there seems to be differences in timing to the low's arrival looking at the 00z output T+84 (12z Tues) charts from GFS and UKMO:

Chance that this far out the 06z runs will change the track again!

[TEITS]

I haven't been able to view all the models recently but having a quick peek today tells me that rainfall rather than gales is the major concern. However in these circumstances much can change from all three models so we may have to wait until at least Monday before we know exactly the track of this LP and how it develops.

The summer may of been poor but it certainly hasn't been boring weather wise!.

[BARRY]

Let's not forget that the Fastnet Ocean Yacht Race starts tomorrow (Sunday) morning. They have to cover over 600nm non-stop from Cowes to SW Ireland and back to Plymouth, and many boats from this year's fleet of over 300 yachts will be right in the path of this lot Tuesday/Wednesday. The winds will matter a lot to them and we must hope that there are no "low-pressure bombs" of the sort that caused the '79 Fastnet disaster in which 15 yachtsmen died out there between Land's End and the southern Irish coast.

I would not wish that on anybody, i was at sea on a crabber when that hit to say the s**t hit the fan is a under statement, the skipper was lashed to his seat, we had a new deckhand 16 years old he never went to sea again, i think it was the bacon & egg sarni that did it