Tuesday/Wednesday's Event

[Nick F]

Net-weather watch now issued: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ts;reg=7;sess=;

Looks like the 06z GFS run is bringing the low further North and more delayed in arrival too!

[Matty M]

My Leaving Cert Results Day

Lurvly JublY!

[Bobby]

Rain looks to be going further North on the 06 run, with most of it missing southern areas. Most areas should see some rain. Looks very windy though in the south.

[SP1986]

There have been a large variation of outputs within the last few outputs, I think were not going to find out til the very end, or a day before. Judging by the model outputs, I would suggest a pretty dead on 50/50 in favour of either a relief from the potential for it to be severe, or it actually going ahead and being severe, the positioning will decide that, but theres lots involved to build a storm of that Calibre in the summer.

[Wosser]

Meant to be going to pony club camp with my daughter on tuesday by the sea in a place called pembrey west wales coast how big event is this going to be would it be worth canceling it ?

[saint]

how big an event is this

[grab my graupel]

Meant to be going to pony club camp with my daughter on tuesday by the sea in a place called pembrey west wales coast how big event is this going to be would it be worth canceling it ?

Hi Wizz

I don't know how much notice you have to give to cancel, but I would recommend

waiting a little longer if you are able to do that, and keep an eye on this forum to see

how things are developing.

As Stephen said, chopping and changing of the details is inevitable and the picture will

become clearer closer to the time

Brian

how big an event is this

The same applies to you saint

Edited August 11, 2007 by grab my graupels

[saint]

Hi Wizz

I don't know how much notice you have to give to cancel, but I would recommend

waiting a little longer if you are able to do that, and keep an eye on this forum to see

how things are developing.

As Stephen said, chopping and changing of the details is inevitable and the picture will

become clearer closer to the time

Brian

The same applies to you saint

thanks gmg

saint

thanks gmg

saint

i think netweather have got the right idea of putting the whole uk under weather watch but the met office should do the whole uk as well

saint

[Wosser]

Thanks for reply lets hope for calm conditions and sunshine

Edited August 11, 2007 by wizzy

[NorthantsSnow]

Met Office have updated their warnings.

Heavy Rain & Severe Gales 1800 Mon 13 0600 Thu 16

This is an update to the early warning first issued on Friday 10th August. The Met Office is forecasting a period of very wet and windy weather to affect the UK this coming week, in association with one or possibly two deep depressions moving in from the Atlantic. Heavy rain is expected to set in across southwestern parts on Monday evening, and then move northeast, with strong winds in places thereafter, though beyond Monday night there is considerable uncertainty regarding the detailed evolution. The probability that some parts of the UK will be adversely affected is quite high, though pinpointing which these will be is not possible at present. Rainfall totals of around 25mm are likely to occur quite widely, with 75mm or more possible in the worst affected areas. Winds may reach severe gale force in places, and gust to 60-70 mph. Exposed locations in the west and south of the UK are most vulnerable to the strong winds. The predicted winds could lead to minor damage and, combined with heavy rain, could cause disruption to outdoor activities. This warning will be updated by midday on Sunday 12th August.

Issued at: 1203 Sat 11 Aug

Edited August 11, 2007 by Dancc

[saint]

just reallised whole country under met office warnings for monday tuesday and wednesday its a split right down the middle either 30 or 40 percent i am under a weather warning wow

saint

Edited August 11, 2007 by saint

[tinybill]

met office certain up graded it since this moning

[grab my graupel]

met office certain up graded it since this moning

Tell you what Norman. It seems a long agonising wait for the 12z to come out

I'm dieing to see what they are showing for next week.

The suspense is killing me

[Costa Del Fal]

A Bit of a Guess but i think Places Up North will have the Heaviest Rain while all of Wales and the Southwest have Strong Winds.

[tinybill]

just been looking at the fax chart is it my eyes cant make it out pres of 945 over wales on tuesday!!!!!!!!!!!

[stormchaser1]

12z 850 chart for tuesday

nigel

sorry guys wrong chart DOH :lol: :lol:

lETS TRY THIS ONE

nigel

[Upgrade]

i was thinking of the fastnet race too. funny as its going on at the same time as this - is there often a large storm at this juncture in august, i wonder. just like wimbledon falls in the monsoon, maybe fastnet often conincides with windy weather?

[kold weather]

I stil ldon't think the gradient is that tight to be honest, its certainly stronger then you'd expect in a August system and sure it'd be windy with the strong frontal system moving through but it doesn't scream to me severe gales, maybe offshore it could get upto that but I don't think the winds will be that high inland. It should be noted though that the UKMO model has a sharper pressure gradient then the GFS and that makes the higher winds stated by the met office.

Still looks like a very wet 48hrs as well which combined with the wet ground and fairly high winds may cause some problems.

Edited August 11, 2007 by kold weather

[Upgrade]

hard to believe its going to get nasty , it was such a gorgeous day here in old london town, have been working on the tan cycling round Epping Forest. Probably a nice memory to treasure when its throwing it down on Tues!

[Optimus Prime]

Kold, I think you're underestimating this event at this stage. It looks like an exceptional event for August. Something that might occur in October every couple of years.

For me the winds will be gusting to around 65MPH for the soutbn west fairly frequently. South Wales seeing gusts upto 55MPh possibly. These equate to almost 80MPH in winter when putting into account trees are in full leaf and the ground will be saturated.

The winds will then transfer to the Midlands, east Anglia and South east where gusts above 55MPH are likely, despenign whether it developes further there could be gusts over 60MPH around the coasts and 60MPH inland (including London) Possibly above 65MPH around East Anglia.

Structual damage looks very low/low to me but we could loose a fair number of trees causing travel destruction, power cuts and of course a negative effect on the woodlands.

Might not be good news for the New Forest.

[Mammatus]

Kold, I think you're underestimating this event at this stage. It looks like an exceptional event for August. Something that might occur in October every couple of years.

For me the winds will be gusting to around 65MPH for the soutbn west fairly frequently. South Wales seeing gusts upto 55MPh possibly. These equate to almost 80MPH in winter when putting into account trees are in full leaf and the ground will be saturated.

The winds will then transfer to the Midlands, east Anglia and South east where gusts above 55MPH are likely, despenign whether it developes further there could be gusts over 60MPH around the coasts and 60MPH inland (including London) Possibly above 65MPH around East Anglia.

Structual damage looks very low/low to me but we could loose a fair number of trees causing travel destruction, power cuts and of course a negative effect on the woodlands.

Might not be good news for the New Forest.

I agree with this Optimus Prime. Some very unseasonable looking winds for the southwest, south Wales and south coast, then up into Kent, London and East Anglia. Frequent gusts over 50mph for a time I feel. As you say, as the low winds itself up and gradient tightens, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, London and Kent could see severe gale gusts for a few hours.

Mammatus :lol:

Edited August 11, 2007 by Mammatus

[Rustynailer]

Oh no the end of summer already, will it go out in a memorable way I wonder. Only joking I am sure it will get nice at least once more in August :lol:

This event Tuesday is not that surprising this summer, it would be surprising if it cropped up last summer.

I am hoping for a downgrade on the rain and with trees in full leaf I hope it (the wind) goes somewhere else :lol:

Russ

[PB22]

The 18Z GFS out to T+36 has the low feature in the Atlantic almost 10mb deeper than for the same time on the 12Z run, and it is slightly further north.

[Mammatus]

The 18Z GFS out to T+36 has the low feature in the Atlantic almost 10mb deeper than for the same time on the 12Z run, and it is slightly further north.

Very concerning times indeed Paul. Lets see what the rest of the 18z brings-

Mammatus

[PB22]

By the time it hits our shores, it is less deep on this run, and a different orientation. However, the general theme is still a wet, and in places, a windy one.