Autumn 2007 Forecasts

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Hello everyone,

It’s that time of year again, the time where people predict what weather will come over the next 3 months and get to see how wrong they turn out to be. My forecast is not available until the 31st/August, however I think everyone will be keen to see peoples forecast, whatever your forecasting knowledge. So write a forecast/prediction today whether it’s a guess or is based upon meteorological knowledge... just post a forecast

SNOW-MAN2006

[Optimus Prime]

Ok here goes;

September; Turning settled. Rainfall below average and sunshine above. Mean temperature above normal (15.0c))

October; Wet and wild and warm. Rainfall above average, shinshine below and mean temperature above normal (11.9c)

November; Generally unsettled with spells of heavy rain and dreary evenings. Cold start then mild but with alternating colder and frostier spells later in the month. Warm end. Temperatures about normal with sun shine around average. Quite wet (6.7c)

I suspect it'll be quite a warm spring, but not as exceptional as recent ones. Rainfall above average and sunshine below. Temperatures within a degree of the mean.

2006 had an extremely warm spring;

September; 16.8c

October; 13.0c

November; 8.1c

2.4c above the 61-90 average. Nothing comes closer in history.

[Hiya]

I'm not into detailed forcasts, but I shall go for an above average, and nice september, average october and average november.

I have still to make up my mind of if we shall see an escalation of the atlantic or the burst and a quiet atlantic.

[derrylynne]

September: The first two weeks mainly dominated by high pressure so plenty of sun and warm days - but cold nights. From then becoming unsettled and cooler at times with much rain including thunder at times.

October: Wet and wild but a warm spell (an indian summer perhaps) as high pressure ridges from the azores for about five days. Rainfall above average and temperatures about average. There will however be some widespread frosts - an unusual feature for October nowadays..

November: Starting foggy and damp before becoming unsettled in the first two weeks. Snow in November as cold weather moves down from the north. The month ends cold with some sharp frosts....

[Optimus Prime]

Ok here goes;

September; Turning settled. Rainfall below average and sunshine above. Mean temperature above normal (15.0c))

October; Wet and wild and warm. Rainfall above average, shinshine below and mean temperature above normal (11.9c)

November; Generally unsettled with spells of heavy rain and dreary evenings. Cold start then mild but with alternating colder and frostier spells later in the month. Warm end. Temperatures about normal with sun shine around average. Quite wet (6.7c)

I suspect it'll be quite a warm Autumn, but not as exceptional as recent ones. Rainfall above average and sunshine below. Temperatures within a degree of the mean.

2006 had an extremely warm Autumn;

September; 16.8c

October; 13.0c

November; 8.1c

2.4c above the 61-90 average. Nothing comes closer in history.

No idea why I put spring in there....

[sundog]

I think that overall it will be a cool autumn,i dont think we will have an indian summer. I think the weather will start to dry out somewhat overall during the autumn and we could get our fair share of frost something that we hardly got at all last autumn. I think november will be below average with a good chance of seeing some snow sometime in november. All this i admit is just a hunch or guesswork,but i was one of the few who thought we might get a cool wet summer so sometimes a hunch can count for something,sometimes anyway.

[Gavin P]

Not that sure but at the moment I'm looking at a wet and mild September, a very wet and cold October and a cold and dry-ish November.

VERY differant autumn to what we've seen over the last couple of years.

[Snowyowl9]

An autumn like 1986 would be nice cold and dry with lots of ground/air frosts down to -5c and 42 days without rain I wish. :lol:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119860919.gif

An week/10 day indian summer is always welcome in October but not outstaying it`s welcome like last autumn.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119850930.gif

Expect it`ll be cooler overall to recent years and wetter to normal but maybe some warmer drier spells aswell.

As for november well thats too far out yet.

[Cymru]

What I would like for Autumn:

September:

Warm and dry most of the month.

October:

Indian Summer.

November:

Cool and dry with night frosts.

December:

Sharp frosts but sunny days.

In reality I expect:

September:

Warm and mostly dry but lows moving in in the last week.

October:

Mild and stormy.

November:

Dry, grey and mild.

December:

Atlantic lows bringing wet snow in between mild grey periods.

[Bottesford]

^ I agree totally with that one on all counts! Lets hope we get that sunny, warm autumn and into a dry, sunny winter (don't care how warm or cold it is so long as it's dry 'n sunny!).

[Bobby]

September: 15.5c. Warm, wet and zonal dominated throughout.

October: 12.5c. Warm, wet and zonal dominated throughout.

November: 8.0c. Warm, wet and zonal dominated throughout.

Don't see why not in the land of perpetual Autumn. Since October last year, apart from April, we have been in Autumn anyway.

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

My forecast for the North East for September 2007 this will probably get laughed at but here goes

This is what ive come up with for my Prediction {Guess} for September

I will prob get slated for this but im basing my Guess around the moon phases

Sept 4th we should see the Last quarter and from the data i have aquired [the Moon phases for this September have similarties to that of 1999 [give or take a day or so}

Now in 1999 last quarter fell on the 2nd with this we saw High pressure of 1020hpa over the Uk , this also produced a dry period

Now this year the last quarter will fall on the 4th september , which some models are showing early signs again for high pressure around this date ,

So the first 5 days im going for high pressure, and dry

===============================================

Now next in line is the New Moon which will fall on the 11th September this year, in 1999 the New moon fell on the 9th September. Now in 1999 there was also high pressure around the New Moon , however , there was rainfall just before the New moon appeared , also this was quite a windy period

so for the dates around the 11th im still going for high pressure to follow suit. with rain and wind

=======================================================

Next in Line Sept 19th which is scheduled for the First quarter

|Now in 1999 the first quarter fell on the 17th september which this period saw low pressure of 1003 rain before the first quarter showed and rain just after , also again this was a windy period

This year 2007 im going for the same Low pressure wet and windy

=====================================================

Full moon is scheduled for the 26th September , in 1999 it was the 25th september again Low pressure 1004 rain before and rain after , also thunder

This year im going for the same Low pressure around the 26th with wet and windy conditions

========================================================

So for this year my summary for September is

Dry at first with high pressure , turning wet and windy around the {end of the }2nd week with Low pressure for the last two weeks ,

My average temp for September 1999 was 13.5c which was an average month

Im going to go for the same this year around 13.5c being an average

===========================================================

Also since 1996 the average temp for sepetmber has mainly been below average apart from last year where we had 15.25c

List of averages for september

1996= 13.25c -0.25c

1997= 11c===-2.5c

1998=13.0c===-0.5c

1999=13.5c===level

2000=11.75c=-1.75c

2001=12.25c===-1.25c

2002=12.75c====-0.75c

2003=13.25c====-0.25c

2004=13.25c====-0.25c

2005=12.25c====-1.25c

2006=15.25c====+1.75c

As you can see only last year we saw a aboe average temp for september, the rest has been below average

=========================================================

People will prob have a good laugh at my forecast {guess} but who cares

Nigel

I will have a look at other data for around the country when i get time during the week and will prob post my forescast GUESS]for Sept/ Oct/ Nov next weekend

[damianslaw]

I'm not expecting a warm autumn like 2005 or 2006 but I also don't think we will record a below average autumn, I just think that this autumn will be very average in a word.

No real extremes of temperature but good as it won't be stupidly warm conditions messing up the natural world i.e. strawberries growing in November a la last year, please none of that again....

One thing I am hoping for this autumn are some earlier frosts the last 2 years on the frost front were dire, the first frost is always something to relish.. some way off yet but late Sept/early Oct is usually when I look at for this here in tyne and wear.. only a month away..

[Stu_London]

The Met Office forecast is interesting.

If they are correct with their High Pressure to the west prediction (and its possible they will be as it has tended to be there most of the summer) then I would expect the signal to be dryish especially in the west, coolish - a NW feed won't be warm and the high may link with a greenland high at some point giving a proper Northerly - most likely in October if history is anything to go by. There is the inference that fog may be more of a problem later in the season - this might suggest that the met think that the HP may move more towards us during November.

All in all - not a bad forecast and not far off what I see may happen.

[Anti-Mild]

Here's my stab....

September: CET: 14.0c, Rainfall: 105%, Sunshine: 100%

October: CET: 9.9c, Rainfall: 90%, Sunshine: 110%

November: CET: 6.2c, Rainfall: 75%, Sunshine: 125%

[damianslaw]

The Met Office forecast is interesting.

If they are correct with their High Pressure to the west prediction (and its possible they will be as it has tended to be there most of the summer) then I would expect the signal to be dryish especially in the west, coolish - a NW feed won't be warm and the high may link with a greenland high at some point giving a proper Northerly - most likely in October if history is anything to go by. There is the inference that fog may be more of a problem later in the season - this might suggest that the met think that the HP may move more towards us during November.

All in all - not a bad forecast and not far off what I see may happen.

This secanrio would be very different to many a recent year, but as you say would be very dry. Somehow I don't think this will prevail throughout, I would expect at least a short spell of autumnal gales at some point, but I like the idea of any high retrogressing over the country during the November ensuring cold and frosty conditions....

[summer blizzard]

Sounds like a 2004 senario with a displaced Azores High bring cloudy but relatively dry and mild conditions with quite a few topplers.

[Lettucing Gutted]

An autumn like 1986 would be nice cold and dry with lots of ground/air frosts down to -5c and 42 days without rain I wish. :lol:

With a seasonal C.E.T of 10C Autumn 1986 wasn't exceptionally cool in the C.E.T zone since it was only 0.2C below the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for Autumn of 10.2C.

September 1986 had all of the credit for the slightly cool Autumn outcome. At 11.3 it was 2.3C below the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for September of 13.6C.

However October 1986 was quite mild. At 11C it was 0.4C above the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for October of 10.6C.

November 1986 was also very mild. At 7.8C it was 1.3C above the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for November of 6.5C.

October and November 1986 stopped Autumn 1986 from being exceptionally cool.

[Wales123098]

my predictions for South Wales lowland(Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Valleys)

september - dry and warm 14.9c

october - wet and windy, gales, flooding (classic welsh weather) and then Cold and frosty after the 25th 12.5c

November - Frosty Cold Sunny, Blizzards around the 13th-17th in Welsh Valleys(Rhondda Cynon Taff, Caerphilly well anywhere above 130meters), wet snow in cities especialy Cardiff and Newport, then cold and frosty with high pressure then another cold snap with snow from the NW around 29th 6.9c

[Lettucing Gutted]

This scenario would be very different to many a recent year, but as you say would be very dry. Somehow I don't think this will prevail throughout, I would expect at least a short spell of autumnal gales at some point, but I like the idea of any high retrogressing over the country during the November ensuring cold and frosty conditions....

I don't trust highs that move over the UK to bring cold weather. Quite often these days the high topples to the southeast to become a Bartlett High or moves back southwest to the Azores, bringing mild and humid weather. Only very rarely these days do highs move northeast to Scandinavia or retrogress northwest to Greenland to bring cold weather.

Last autumn/winter (2006/2007) was a good example of this problem. The first few days of November 2006 and the week before Christmas 2006 featured a shallow cool spell under a UK Blocking High. However the period in between Bonfire Night and 15th December 2006 featured constant Warm Zonality Westerly winds. The period between Boxing Day 2006 and 19th January 2007 was also dominated by Warm Zonality Westerly winds.

[summer blizzard]

With a seasonal C.E.T of 10C Autumn 1986 wasn't exceptionally cool in the C.E.T zone since it was only 0.2C below the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for Autumn of 10.2C.

September 1986 had all of the credit for the slightly cool Autumn outcome. At 11.3 it was 2.3C below the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for September of 13.6C.

However October 1986 was quite mild. At 11C it was 0.4C above the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for October of 10.6C.

November 1986 was also very mild. At 7.8C it was 1.3C above the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for November of 6.5C.

October and November 1986 stopped Autumn 1986 from being exceptionally cool.

Pretty much a case of the first half been all but cancelled out by the second.

[Gavin P]

WeatherOnline going for a completely dry September in some southern parts?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/08/26_tma.htm

Sounds like an identical pattern to all Septembers from 2002-2006, to me. The extroridnary, unprecedented and exceptional run of freakishly hot and dry Septembers looks set to continue?

[kold weather]

Exactlh ow the Autumn will turn out is probably more dependant on the AO then usual. Despite what it looks like we've had a very blocked summer, granted the blocks haven't been even close to the UK but they have been there, for example in June we had one of tbe most northerly blocked June's ever, this month we've seen a beast of an Azores high, sadly shunted to our south but boasting pressures often about 1025-1030mbs.

If the AO turns back negative then should allow for a generally easterly type set-up to occur, if positive then westerly will dominate. In truth probably both wil lhappen sometime during the Autumn. The easterly QBO should allow for northerly topplers however at times even when the westerlies are strong.

September---14.6C

October---11.6

November---6.2

[derrylynne]

WeatherOnline going for a completely dry September in some southern parts?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/08/26_tma.htm

Sounds like an identical pattern to all Septembers from 2002-2006, to me. The extroridnary, unprecedented and exceptional run of freakishly hot and dry Septembers looks set to continue?

To be honest after the complete lousy summer we have had I would welcome an extraordinatry, exceptional hot September. Summer in Autumn - bring it on.... B)

[Zenarcher]

weathermaster's forecast

Warmer than normal, below rainfall, less windy weather, risk of fog.

September: high pressure will stay about also high temps but by the end of the month becoming more breezy and unsettled.

October forecast coming end of september.