September CET!

[SMU]

HI SF, nice post -

It would seem we are agreeing on 'most' things then-

As for the SST's, the big swathe of -VE atlantic coverage matters not a jot if your in 'true' polar air....

Although returning polar air it would certainly make a difference in terms of modification-

Around the keys for getting a cold winter here- the speed of the jet is probably the first key, sadly these days there are enough keys on the ring for me to pass as a jailer-

Lets satisfy numero uno as we move into October & november then specualte about the rest come Decmber-

Anyway- wildly off topic now- So to coin a OON Phrase-

er CET 14.1 Final call.............

S

[West is Best]

Manley on 14.1C now. Tonight less cold with mins between 9C and 10C, but if the max are correct for today then there should still be a slight drift despite another not so cold night tomorrow. However, to get below 14C on Manley it looks as if Saturday night may be the clincher ...

[The PIT]

Indeed.

[eddie]

At 8.4C, Yesterday was the coldest September day since Sep 30th 1988.

[SP1986]

Do we use Manley on this CET because its colder or more accurate? - truthfully.

[eddie]

Do we use Manley on this CET because its colder or more accurate? - truthfully.

I thought it was because Hadley didn't used to update daily?

[PersianPaladin]

Do we use Manley on this CET because its colder or more accurate? - truthfully.

We use it because its more Manley.

Nuff said.

[SP1986]

We use it because its more Manley.

Nuff said.

surely Ive just been hadley

[Stratos Ferric]

I thought it was because Hadley didn't used to update daily?

Didn't you mean to say 'because it Hadley ever gets updated'?

I thought the reason, way back when, was because Philip cast doubts re the longitudinal robustness of Hadley since they fiddled with some of the sites.

[DR Hosking]

an average of 13c for the last 3 days would bring the average down to 14 degrees. An average of 12.1 for the last 3 days would bring it down to 13.9c

[Polar Continental]

Mean down to 14.2c here in my location, so +0.5c above the CET average currently, has been falling at a rate of –03c, for the previous couple of days, only dropped -0.1c today, as last night was relatively mild, at 9.3c, although today has only managed a max of 13.9c.

Paul

[West is Best]

At 8.4C, Yesterday was the coldest September day since Sep 30th 1988.

Good grief. Is that true?

Stratos, thank you for your nice comments yesterday. Glad you enjoyed the philosophical excursion!

And in the same spirit of peace, can I request that you log the above fact (if indeed it be)? The coldest September day for two decades ...

[Stratos Ferric]

Good grief. Is that true?

Stratos, thank you for your nice comments yesterday. Glad you enjoyed the philosophical excursion!

And in the same spirit of peace, can I request that you log the above fact (if indeed it be)? The coldest September day for two decades ...

Law of large numbers. Once in every 600 days we should reasonably expect a, well, 1:600 type event.

As we keep saying, ad nausaeum, a warming climate does not preclude cold; it just makes it less frequent, less intense, and less sustained.

If Paul has found when the last such cold day occurred, the next question would be when before that was the previous day at least as equally cold? And the one before that?

---

EDIT

By the way WiB: with temps held down today under the rain we might yet get down to 13.8, perhaps even right down to par. Thought you'd love that!

Edited September 28, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[West is Best]

Law of large numbers. Once in every 600 days we should reasonably expect a, well, 1:600 type event.

By the way WiB: with temps held down today under the rain we might yet get down to 13.8, perhaps even right down to par. Thought you'd love that!

lol - love the final comment! I'm a little more wary but we'll see!

At what point would you start to think the warm up was slowing? What criteria would you apply, and against what mean? What sort of signs would you expect? In answering me it's probably fair to refer to the CET as that is so readily used by everyone the other way round. Just curious ...!

[VillagePlank]

At what point would you start to think the warm up was slowing? What criteria would you apply, and against what mean? What sort of signs would you expect? In answering me it's probably fair to refer to the CET as that is so readily used by everyone the other way round. Just curious ...!

Come on WiB, this is just stirring.

You and I both know (as well as many others) that climate is measured over decades. What is, say, a six month dip against, say a thrity month rise? Well, in my hypothetical, that'll be 1 in 5. Sure, it's better odds than a White Christmas in London this year, but, still, I would not want to bet on it.

If you are looking for signs, I'm afraid, then you are looking to the experimental sector. And, in that, it is a matter of confidence, so far, and nothing else.

Law of large numbers.

Laws of large numbers, as you know, are more specific than what you say they are. Don't dumb down SF!

[West is Best]

VP if you can't add anything to a serious debate except accusing someone asking honest questions of stirring then don't bother posting.

SF - ignore the imbecile him. Those are real questions. In terms of the CET what would you think would be the markers that the warm up was slowing down, if you allow yourself hypothetically that possibility? What in terms of the CET would make you catch your breath slightly?

Edited September 28, 2007 by West is Best

[SP1986]

What in terms of the CET would make you catch your breath slightly?

Perhaps more than one summer and the start of Autumn in 2007? Just a suggestion

[Gavin P]

Well I'm at 13.9c. I've been running about a day ahead of Philip Eden for some reason, so I'm expecting him to get to 13.9 on Saturday (and post it on site on Sunday)

[SP1986]

I'm still on 14.0 with my prediction, its sooo close its unbelievable. On the wire stuff, Im enjoying it in a way.

[Don]

Well I'm at 13.9c. I've been running about a day ahead of Philip Eden for some reason, so I'm expecting him to get to 13.9 on Saturday (and post it on site on Sunday)

I suspect with that then, the Met Office will be at 14C on Saturday, as they have been running slightly higher than Philip Eden this month. Pretty much nailed that this September will be the coolest since 2001 anyway.

[West is Best]

OK folks: it had to happen! We have hit 14.0C on Manley http://www.climate-uk.com/

With two 24 hour periods still to go we have a fair chance of going below 14C. If Saturday night does see single figure minima then it's extremely likely.

Perhaps more than one summer and the start of Autumn in 2007? Just a suggestion

Ya ... but at what point Stephen do you begin at least to think 'hmmm ....'?

Anyway agree that this has been fun!

Edited September 29, 2007 by West is Best

[Terminal Moraine]

[Ya ... but at what point Stephen do you begin at least to think 'hmmm ....'?

I'd be looking for two or three consecutive years each of which had at least 4 months at or below the 1971-2000 mean.

However, a single month which was more than 2.5c lower than the 1971-2000 mean would make me sit up and lean forward attentively.

T.M

[West is Best]

[Ya ... but at what point Stephen do you begin at least to think 'hmmm ....'?

I'd be looking for two or three consecutive years each of which had at least 4 months at or below the 1971-2000 mean.

However, a single month which was more than 2.5c lower than the 1971-2000 mean would make me sit up and lean forward attentively.

T.M

Interesting TM. It's more-or-less that which is making me sit up. I know we've had lots of very warm months but if you take the winter before last and this summer it does throw a spanner in the warm works. As for a single month 2.5C below, well March 2006 is the one that comes closest, but not by that much!

The cold night coming is pretty much firming up so I think it's inevitable Manley will finish below 14C. It's not inconceivable it might just make 13.8C. A dramatic turnaround. Would love to know if it is one of the coolest second halves for a long while - suspect so.

[VillagePlank]

VP if you can't add anything to a serious debate except accusing someone asking honest questions of stirring then don't bother posting.

SF - ignore the imbecile him. Those are real questions. In terms of the CET what would you think would be the markers that the warm up was slowing down, if you allow yourself hypothetically that possibility? What in terms of the CET would make you catch your breath slightly?

Perhaps you should take the time to look at this WiB?

I was being very specific to the current debate

(and as I understand it, being an imbecile is a few steps up the ladder from being a plank )

Edited September 29, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Snowly does it]

Interesting TM. It's more-or-less that which is making me sit up. I know we've had lots of very warm months but if you take the winter before last and this summer it does throw a spanner in the warm works. As for a single month 2.5C below, well March 2006 is the one that comes closest, but not by that much!

The cold night coming is pretty much firming up so I think it's inevitable Manley will finish below 14C. It's not inconceivable it might just make 13.8C. A dramatic turnaround. Would love to know if it is one of the coolest second halves for a long while - suspect so.

Looks like my double or quits will just about fail for me - not that I mind!

13.8 Manley and 14.0 Hadley (unless they drop a little at month end as they have done recently)?