September CET!

[West is Best]

It looks very likely 14.2c will be the final figure which is only 0.6c above average. 14.0c or below looks very unlikely (I would give sub 14.0c about 20%) minima just doesn't look cold enough.

A huge amount of spin there OP! But anyone who can say in one and the same breath that one target is very likely, but something just 0.2C below it is only 20% likely is taking the mickey. 0.2C degrees isn't enough of a difference with 7 full days to go to make assertions of that nature. Indeed, if this month is any lesson it's the utter folly of being too bold and too wise before the event - and I very much aim that at myself as well.

Aside from that, your figures are suspect anyway. You're much too high in places I fancy there. Remember this is the CET not the city centres.

Oh, and the CET 30 year average is 13.7C not 13.6C. And it is not normal compared to recent years. The mean of the last 10 Septembers is 14.8C.

Incidentally, another reason to urge caution is that a single figure day even in the final week of the month is enough to wipe 0.25C off the monthly average. It's not at all impossible we may have two such days later next week. Hold your breath folks, it's coming down ...!

[Weather-history]

The coolest September for 6 years looks a good possibility, its pretty certain that its going to be the coolest July-September period since 1993

[jethro]

The coolest September for 6 years looks a good possibility, its pretty certain that its going to be the coolest July-September period since 1993

Wessex had a white crimbo in 1993, now that would be nice..

[Stratos Ferric]

Thanks for that SF. You agree then now that 14C is the fighting figure?

...

I believe I've been saying for several days that 14C is the interesting line in the sand 'if I was making a market', it could still go either way, so +/- 0.1C would be sensible. We'd need markedly cooler than progged to get below 13.9 though.

[West is Best]

I believe I've been saying for several days that 14C is the interesting line in the sand 'if I was making a market', it could still go either way, so +/- 0.1C would be sensible. We'd need markedly cooler than progged to get below 13.9 though.

Looking at the 12z GFS I'm quietly confident we'll go below 14C at close of play. The issue for me now is that 13.7C figure. That's much tighter.

[kold weather]

Going to be fairly tight as to how low we can go, it does look like the mins are going to be pretty low once we get to Tuesday night onwards. If i had to guess right now i'd go for exactly 14C but it could go under if the nights midweek are as cold as progged to be.

[West is Best]

Manley still on 14.7C, though not rounded up http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0709.htm

Although minima are up under the advancing rain band the maxima will be suppressed today so that should now be the peak, with downhill from tomorrow's data onwards. In theory therefore there ought to be 6 days worth of downward pressure. How far will it go? Much depends on those minima. If the GFS is anywhere near right in calling for 4 or 5 nights of low minima then it'll go low. But if we only have one or two then it will be a much slower slide.

Edited September 24, 2007 by West is Best

[Roger J Smith]

My guess is that the CET will come in at 13.996, leaving everyone fighting over whether it was above or below 14 for the next hundred years. Well, until the October weather riots begin. :lol:

[DR Hosking]

My guess is that the CET will come in at 13.996, leaving everyone fighting over whether it was above or below 14 for the next hundred years. Well, until the October weather riots begin. B)

My guess is that the CET will come in at 13.996, leaving everyone fighting over whether it was above or below 14 for the next hundred years. Well, until the October weather riots begin. B)

Is that a joke or are you really predicting to a 1000th of a degree?? :lol:

Also if it was 13.996 why would people be fighting over whether its above or below 14? Explain how 13.996 can ever be described as "above" 14 degrees! :lol:

[Jonnie G]

My guess is that the CET will come in at 13.996, leaving everyone fighting over whether it was above or below 14 for the next hundred years. Well, until the October weather riots begin. :lol:

Impossible Roger as 13.996 x 60 = 839.76!

Edited September 24, 2007 by Jonnie G

[The PIT]

Due to a bug in the data collection CET has been canceled for September.

[Stratos Ferric]

Is that a joke or are you really predicting to a 1000th of a degree??

Also if it was 13.996 why would people be fighting over whether its above or below 14? Explain how 13.996 can ever be described as "above" 14 degrees!

You obviously didn't see the discussion some point this year re whether or not we'd reached 30C.

[DR Hosking]

You obviously didn't see the discussion some point this year re whether or not we'd reached 30C.

Aaah, yes, but that was more about the validity of a particular site and its location, rather than the temperature itself. But yes I see your point, there were several pages of discussions about it!

Back to September, im not really bothered what the temperature ends up for, I punted for 14.5 and I don't think I will be far away. My main thing is to see a gradual cooling through the month and an increase in occurancies of fronts and storms, basically a gradual slide into a proper autumn. So far I think this month has been good and the outlook for this week is cetainly cooler and more autumnal than we have seen in September in recent years.

P.S I could do with Autumn proper holding off until the 7th of October as im on holiday next week! Would rather not have a week of gales and wind!

[acbrixton]

You obviously didn't see the discussion some point this year re whether or not we'd reached 30C.

Or indeed the rather acrimonious Grand Debate in 2006 as to whether it was permissible to describe the weather in the first half of may that year as 'noteworthy', 'glorious' or whatever (not, in my view, unreasonable) adjectives WIB used...

Regards

ACB

[West is Best]

adjectives WIB used...

Andrew, remind me not of the sins of my youth!

Dr Hosking (so very close to my own name!): I think it was a bit of a joke by Roger!

So The Great Fall is now under way, although 24hrs of mildish data will still need to feed through the system. I actually thought we'd be higher than we are now on Manley and Hadley: the latter incidentally is on 14.9C, with Manley on 14.7C

[Duncan McAlister]

I think it'll be spot on 14C by Saturday morning. Was that your bet, WiB?

Edited September 24, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[West is Best]

Was that your bet, WiB?

Nowhere near, but at least I saw what was coming a week or so into the month! Stu was close at 14.2C.

However, I'm now virtually certain we'll go sub-14C. The real battle is for that magical 13.7C figure. Will we beat the 30 year mean ...?

Susprised to see Manley fall yesterday to 14.6C, an unexpected bonus ahead of the big dips now. Tonight has been a rare example of the GFS overcooking temps, albeit by a degree or two. Single figures have cropped up already widely in the CET zone.

Edited September 25, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

Single figures have cropped up already widely in the CET zone.

Definately a few 8s and 9s around as we approach dawn - I assume we are heading for 13s and 14s unless the outlook has changed so we can expect 0.15C drop today.

Now looking like the low minima are here until month end so sub 14C now a shade of odds on. 13.7C may be out of reach

Edited September 25, 2007 by Stu_London

[West is Best]

Definately a few 8s and 9s around as we approach dawn - I assume we are heading for 13s and 14s unless the outlook has changed so we can expect 0.15C drop today.

Now looking like the low minima are here until month end so sub 14C now a shade of odds on. 13.7C may be out of reach

Stu, running through the GFS 0z + BBC/Met O + SF's wet finger method to compensate for exaggerating minima ... I reckon the final figure will be 13.6C give or take 0.1C.

It might go a lot lower - for instance that's based on a CET maxima average today of 15C which may prove overdone.

[Kentish Man]

Stu, running through the GFS 0z + BBC/Met O + SF's wet finger method to compensate for exaggerating minima ... I reckon the final figure will be 13.6C give or take 0.1C.

It might go a lot lower - for instance that's based on a CET maxima average today of 15C which may prove overdone.

In fact the Beeb are going for around 16C in the CET zone today and 13C tomorrow. GFS are sticking with maxima of 11C tomorrow - surely a tad low.

I don't see below average (13.7C) myself especially as maxima are forecast to be a bit higher over the final two days of the month though minima may or may not stay relatively low. As others have said around 14C still looks good.

Edited September 25, 2007 by Kentish Man

[Stratos Ferric]

In fact the Beeb are going for around 16C in the CET zone today and 13C tomorrow. GFS are sticking with maxima of 11C tomorrow - surely a tad low.

I don't see below average (13.7C) myself especially as maxima are forecast to be a bit higher over the final two days of the month though minima may or may not stay relatively low. As others have said around 14C still looks good.

Have to agree with all of that. I really can't see minima being anything like as low as GFS suggests tomorrow. There is a tongue of genuinely cool air but yet again it's coming down country; last week in the same situation we reached 14 and I can't see much reason to go significantly lower tomorrow, particularly as tonight isn't likely to be cold as last Monday night was.

[Polar Continental]

Just to add to the above comments, the GFS gave lows of only 10c in the CET zone last night, but it got down to 8.5c here and at quite a few other stations as well, so it doesn’t always under estimate.

Actually the GFS is giving maximums of only 8c in some of the CET zone for tomorrow, yes I agree may be to low, and yes 16c sounds about right today, but it won’t be sustained for long, may be for a few minutes. In conditions such as these currently, maximums quoted by the BBC are often only achieved for very for very short periods of time, so can be miss leading IMO.

For the most part the temperatures will be rather lower and it will feel distinctly cool. Take yesterday for instance, for the most part the temperature here was only around 12c to13.5c, but for a very short time around 4pm, around a minute, the temperature maxed at 15c, but within 30 minutes was back to 12.5c and was cloudy.

Obviously though, no matter how long he temperature hangs at a maximum point, whether it be 1 second or 5 hours, the CET is always calculated the same.

Maybe with all the high tech recording equipment these days, it’s time for a re-think on how the CET is calculated; it would give far more accurate results. Obviously running the current method as well, so fair comparisons with the previous CET records, just a thought.

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think it'll be spot on 14C by Saturday morning. Was that your bet, WiB?

Oh shucks, my 13.9c is looking darn fine

BFTP

[beng]

Radio Five live just forecast highs of only 10 or 11c across most of England and Wales tomorrow - sounds like there's some inconsistent forecasts going out at the moment

[stormforce 10]

Radio Five live just forecast highs of only 10 or 11c across most of England and Wales tomorrow - sounds like there's some inconsistent forecasts going out at the moment

sky weather and bbc are projecting sub zero in scotland tomorrow night and near freezing in ireland.