September CET!

[eddie]

On which point, we're in with an outside chance I think of the September min record going (in Scotland). Probably won't but something around -4C a real possibility there.

BBC News 24 forecast just said there was a chance of records being broken in Northern Ireland but just said it would be very cold in Scotland.

Some 1C minima possible in parts of the CET zone too.

[Polar Continental]

Yes tonight looks to be the big one, regarding low minimums in the CET zone, already down to 7.7c, falling at a rate of 1c an hour and with the northerly wind gusting to 14mph, if the wind drops out, i wouldn't be supprised to see an air frost by morning, quite possible for the minimum to drop below zero at this rate.

Paul

Edited September 26, 2007 by Paul Carfoot

[Don]

This month is slightly reminding me of September 2003, which was generally warm and dry, but had a cold end.

It looks that the CET will probably come in at around 14C, which at least is an improvement on recent years, although it's been a far from ideal month IMO. My punt of 14.7C isn't looking too bad for a change after the rather poor July and August attempts.

[Nick F]

I fancy that the Eastern edge of the CET zone will not likely get a ground frost tonight - namely the Rothamstead-Cambridge stations used, as the wind is too strong towards the East and there's more cloud. However, the West and NW will see lighter winds and clearer skies - so mins of 2-3C are certainly possible for the other stations representing Hadley - Pershore-Malvern (Worcs) and Stonyhurst-Squires Gate (Lancs). An air frost looks unlikely IMO - even in the West.

[Geordiesnow]

I fancy that the Eastern edge of the CET zone will not likely get a ground frost tonight - namely the Rothamstead- Cambridge station used, as the wind is too strong towards the East and there's more cloud. However, the West and NW will see lighter winds and clearer skies - so mins of 2-3C are certainly possible for the other two stations representing Hadley - Pershore-Malvern (Worcs) and Stonyhurst-Squires Gate (Lancs). An air frost looks unlikely IMO - even in the West.

I have to disagree on that as i think Cumbria will get an air frost tonight i feel, temps are already around 6C there already. A question on the CET does the CET include Northern England or is just as the name sugguest only for Central parts of England? Silly question i know.

[Nick F]

I have to disagree on that as i think Cumbria will get an air frost tonight i feel, temps are already around 6C there already. A question on the CET does the CET include Northern England or is just as the name sugguest only for Central parts of England? Silly question i know.

But Cumbria isn't included in the CET zone, the CET zone is a triangular area between the Lancashire plains, Herefordshire and Cambridgeshire.

[Geordiesnow]

But Cumbria isn't included in the CET zone, the CET zone is a triangular area between the Lancashire plains, Herefordshire and Cambridgeshire.

I thought the T stands for temperture but its seems to stand for Triangle.

Well then i would agree with you then, though i would think that the temps(in the west especially) will have an impact on the final CET temperture.

[stormforce 10]

current temp 4.8c and falling fast pressure 1019mb and rising

humidity 68% clear and cold.

[West is Best]

But Cumbria isn't included in the CET zone, the CET zone is a triangular area between the Lancashire plains, Herefordshire and Cambridgeshire.

Agree with your comments Nick. I believe Squire's Gate is already at 5C ... I tend to do an estimate based on some nearby feeds which seem to produce a good accurate result.

Great Dun Fell is already at 0C.

Again, my question - I'm assuming Cairngorm doesn't count for records? I ask because it's already at -3C.

[Nick F]

Agree with your comments Nick. I believe Squire's Gate is already at 5C ... I tend to do an estimate based on some nearby feeds which seem to produce a good accurate result.

Hi WIB, I guess based on the Squire's Gate reading (if it's true) - an air frost may just be achievable for the Lancashire readings, though I fancy a 1C min there.

Again, my question - I'm assuming Cairngorm doesn't count for records? I ask because it's already at -3C.

Not sure re: counting for records - Cairngorm is at a high elevation (above 1000m) so will always be colder than say a station reading nearer sea level this time of night, due to the drop in temp with height. Though of course, by morning, the sinking of cold air into valleys may mean that lower locations in sheltered valleys may get just as cold or colder by dawn.

[summer blizzard]

The lowest official station is Tulloch Bridge in the south west Highlands, which was 1C at 20:00, widely below 5C north of Yorkshire.

[Stratos Ferric]

I fancy that the Eastern edge of the CET zone will not likely get a ground frost tonight - namely the Rothamstead-Cambridge stations used, as the wind is too strong towards the East and there's more cloud. However, the West and NW will see lighter winds and clearer skies - so mins of 2-3C are certainly possible for the other stations representing Hadley - Pershore-Malvern (Worcs) and Stonyhurst-Squires Gate (Lancs). An air frost looks unlikely IMO - even in the West.

I think that's a good call Nick. Here in Hertford it's still around 8-9C under showers. Suspect we'll keep some cloud in the east overnight. Further west could be interesting; temps generally a degree or two down on last night, but again, cloud may be a spoiler; the flow looks rather turbulent. Even without cloud I agree, no air frost.

GFS is progressing the storm from the SW more quickly now as well; warm air is now forecast to encroach earlier than previously. The final nail in the coffin for a sub-par month is likely to be Sunday daytime if things turn as projected, however, I'm amused by the GFS 2m projection for saturday: looks like somebody is expecting persistent fog; can't remember when that last happened in September.

I thought the T stands for temperture but its seems to stand for Triangle.

Well then i would agree with you then, though i would think that the temps(in the west especially) will have an impact on the final CET temperture.

I'd always taken the 't' to be for temperature. Central England Temperature.

Agree with your comments Nick. I believe Squire's Gate is already at 5C ... I tend to do an estimate based on some nearby feeds which seem to produce a good accurate result.

Great Dun Fell is already at 0C.

Again, my question - I'm assuming Cairngorm doesn't count for records? I ask because it's already at -3C.

WiB, Great Dun Fell is about 2000ft up! Squire's Gate is 8C: I'd have thought far too close to the coast in a moderate flow to get an air frost. Blackpool Airport can't be a mile inland.

[West is Best]

The final nail in the coffin for a sub-par month

Stratos I do admire your goalpost shifts - genuinely. You should consider working for another person whom I admire and who is equally adept at moving goalposts, Gordon Brown. The last time I checked our real item of debate was over getting below 14C, or so I thought, with the magic CET average a bonus for the scrap. I think we'll go below 14C, but whether we do manage the average I'm really not sure (much depends on tonight).

Edited September 26, 2007 by West is Best

[Nick F]

Could we get back on topic please, the O/T posts wrt to Gordon Brown have been removed.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

WiB, Great Dun Fell is about 2000ft up!

2780ft to be precise. 5.5º a few miles away and over 2000ft lower down.

[Stratos Ferric]

Stratos I do admire your goalpost shifts - genuinely. You should consider working for another person whom I admire and who is equally adept at moving goalposts, Gordon Brown. The last time I checked our real item of debate was over getting below 14C, or so I thought, with the magic CET average a bonus for the scrap. I think we'll go below 14C, but whether we do manage the average I'm really not sure (much depends on tonight).

I haven't moved any goal posts. The comment re "sub par" does not mean that I think that's the baseline, I'm simply challenging your projection. Mine is STILL (as it has been for a few days) 14.

2780ft to be precise. 5.5º a few miles away and over 2000ft lower down.

Ah, but isn't the transmitter (I assume the location of the weather station) below the peak? If I remember rightly the road to the station is the highest metalled road in the UK. The standard lapse is around 3C / 1000ft, so if nothing else your lapse rates aren't being deflated by the labour Government. What's more, Gordon Brown might be succeeding where Tony B has been an abject failure; cold (well, not warm) autumn weather.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

No....the transmitter is right on the peak. I walked round it recently and saw the weather station before my brain started to boil with microwaves.

I'm not spinning this one.

[Stratos Ferric]

No....the transmitter is right on the peak. I walked round it recently and saw the weather station before my brain started to boil with microwaves.

I'm not spinning this one.

Wow, how did that get past planning? Maybe labour have taxed lapse rates after all.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Wow, how did that get past planning?

Actually, the QC who led the Public Inquiry for Great Dun Fell is the same one heading an application I'm involved with in Sedgefield. I'm starting to see a link.

I'd better say something on topic now. Erm....14.0º.

[Mammatus]

Wow, how did that get past planning? Maybe labour have taxed lapse rates after all.

Actually, the QC who led the Public Inquiry for Great Dun Fell is the same one heading an application I'm involved with in Sedgefield. I'm starting to see a link.

I'd better say something on topic now. Erm....14.0º.

Back on topic, after a few chilly days/nights we should see a rise in the CET at the weekend as things warm up nicely

Mammatus

[Don]

Back on topic, after a few chilly days/nights we should see a rise in the CET at the weekend as things warm up nicely

Mammatus

I doubt we'll see a rise now. Weekend temperatues are predicted to be average at best. We may just see the CET level off during the last two days of the month, but that's all.

[Gavin P]

Well I went from a mean temps of 14.6 to 14.2 today. So a big drop, and if tomorrow is anything like today (or should that be today is anything like yesterday?) I should be under 14c by tomorrow. Whether this will be replicated by the CET remains to be see, though.

Edited September 26, 2007 by Gavin P

[West is Best]

Back on topic, after a few chilly days/nights we should see a rise in the CET at the weekend as things warm up nicely

etc.!

Very cold tonight. the NW tracker is falling like a stone. No update on Manley yet from yesterday but we should now comfortably be looking at 2 x 0.2C drops yesterday and today (conservatively) which will take us within touching distance of 14C with 3 days' data to go.

[SP1986]

etc.!

Very cold tonight. the NW tracker is falling like a stone. No update on Manley yet from yesterday but we should now comfortably be looking at 2 x 0.2C drops yesterday and today (conservatively) which will take us within touching distance of 14C with 3 days' data to go.

Then an unfortunate warm up right at the last. Everyone was expect a drop from these nights though, hasnt been too bad, although the breezes tonight may hold the temps up a bit - if the breezes go, then the temps will fall like mad! I think 14.0 is still the bar, but it all depends on these nights, as the days will start to warm up slightly, and the nights will too, as of Friday so Its hanging in the balance. Interesting ride though Richard and some quite cold times as you suggest.

[West is Best]

Huge drop in Manley yesterday to 14.3C http://www.climate-uk.com/

Those figures are not rounded, so we lost 0.25C in the 24 hours up to yesterday. It looks as if the figures were min 6 max 12

As at 3.30 am today the CET range is 3 to 6 so much colder than last night. We may well lose another degree or so off those figures. Widespread ground frost. So another 0.25C drop or more is inevitable. We will therefore be knocking on 14C when Manley updates tomorrow, with 3 more full days to go. It will go sub-14C I'm pretty confident, but the magic average is much more touch and go ...

Two more things. The 18Z GFS overestimated tonight's mins by as much as 3C. And Sunday will not see a rise. Even with 16C+ maxes if they happened, just look at the mins on Sat night. 6C and 16C = 11C average, which is a big fall!

The 13.7C remains in reach, sub 14C in my opinion inevitable.

Edited September 27, 2007 by West is Best