September CET!

[West is Best]

A slight dip to 15.0C in the preceding 24hrs, which is just a bonus to those anticipating a big fall away now. Indeed, that's actually 14.95C rounded up http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0709.htm

... so it was a fall of 0.2C before the cold minima really set in.

I think something below 14C is very much on the cards (and think you're way out Kentish Man!)

Edited September 18, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

A slight dip to 15.0C in the preceding 24hrs, which is just a bonus to those anticipating a big fall away now. Indeed, that's actually 14.95C rounded up http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0709.htm

... so it was a fall of 0.2C before the cold minima really set in.

I think something below 14C is very much on the cards (and think you're way out Kentish Man!)

Yes today (Tuesday) was always likely to be the big faller and a smaller drop on Wednesday is also likely.

I would say 14.6C tomorrow and 14.4C the day after

Then it will steady for a couple of days.

[West is Best]

Yes today (Tuesday) was always likely to be the big faller and a smaller drop on Wednesday is also likely.

I would say 14.6C tomorrow and 14.4C the day after

Then it will steady for a couple of days.

Was slightly banking on another cold night tonight. All depends on the minima before the cloud and rain come across ... but still think we'll be heading below 14C at this rate.

[Kentish Man]

A slight dip to 15.0C in the preceding 24hrs, which is just a bonus to those anticipating a big fall away now. Indeed, that's actually 14.95C rounded up http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0709.htm

... so it was a fall of 0.2C before the cold minima really set in.

I think something below 14C is very much on the cards (and think you're way out Kentish Man!)

Oi I know you may have morphed from arch global warmist to cold lover supreme but some of us like to remain impartial on these matters. What I said was entirely reasonable. However the chances of a cold incursion next Monday and a below average final 6 days have increased with a universally cool set of model runs this morning so a final outurn nearer 14C does look more likely as things stand. A below average month (71-00) may be pushing it though.

[Weather-history]

3rd consecutive below average mid month to mid month period albeit this time slightly

16th June - 15th July: 14.9 (-0.5)

16th July - 15th August: 15.8 (-0.9)

16th August - 15th September: 15.1 (-0.2)

Edited September 18, 2007 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

Amazingly we're 1.5C above normal here. It's going to take some cold nights to get that down. Still the warmest month of the year so far just. I'm really surprised by the differance between the CET area and here.

Edited September 18, 2007 by The PIT

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3rd consecutive below average mid month to mid month period albeit this time slightly

16th June - 15th July: 14.9 (-0.5)

16th July - 15th August: 15.8 (-0.9)

16th August - 15th September: 15.1 (-0.2)

And that with the start in Sept we have had...interesting. Can I also point people to GPs post on page 20...now the models are starting to show this nicely. Will this trend continue?

BFTP

[Glacier Point]

And that with the start in Sept we have had...interesting. Can I also point people to GPs post on page 20...now the models are starting to show this nicely. Will this trend continue?

BFTP

Thanks Fred, although I should correct myself. Polar height anomalies are heading towards +ve values (which will drive the AO negative).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks Fred, although I should correct myself. Polar height anomalies are heading towards +ve values (which will drive the AO negative).

GP

Thanks, I think the gist was gathered but clarification keeps the wolves from the door

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

...

I think something below 14C is very much on the cards (and think you're way out Kentish Man!)

WiB, it's a shame you hit send before you got around to suffixing that statement with what I assume was your intended ending: 'next month'.

Despite a warm looking set of charts it is, at this stage, all very much still up in the air.

[Optimus Prime]

Well Metcheck has the CET at 14.8c which is a drop of 0.7c in one day which is pretty exceptional considering we're 18 days into the month...must be that exceptional cold combination of daytime maxima and nightime minima....

Wasn't as cold across the south yet I still recorded a 0.4c drop. Minima dropped by 0.2c and maxima 0.6c.

Philips site is likely to be around 14.5c when it's updated.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well Metcheck has the CET at 14.8c which is a drop of 0.7c in one day which is pretty exceptional considering we're 18 days into the month...must be that exceptional cold combination of daytime maxima and nightime minima....

Wasn't as cold across the south yet I still recorded a 0.4c drop. Minima dropped by 0.2c and maxima 0.6c.

Philips site is likely to be around 14.5c when it's updated.

There's something wrong there. Either you've missed a day or they have. That change equates to a 3C day; we don't get many of those in winter these days, even in Telford, and yesterday certainly didn't qualify. The wet finger says yesterday would have fallen by around 0.3C.

I suspect 14.5 is pushing it too: that would be a 6C day. Last night's minima around 2, say; 6 would require a max of only 10. It's going to be more than that, probably 13-14. Today's drop would then be around 0.4.

There may be a bit more downward movement tomorrow, depending on what happens overnight, but I think 14.4 is the floor for now, and then, as WiB would say, it's all uphill from there!

Edited September 18, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Optimus Prime]

There's something wrong there. Either you've missed a day or they have. That change equates to a 3C day; we don't get many of those in winter these days, even in Telford, and yesterday certainly didn't qualify. The wet finger says yesterday would have fallen by around 0.3C.

Metchecks figure yesterday was 15.3c. You're right, I completely miscalculated the drop. It was 0.5c, still notable by any standards. What would we do without you?

"There may be a bit more downward movement tomorrow, depending on what happens overnight, but I think 14.4 is the floor for now, and then, as WiB would say, it's all uphill from there!"

I wouldn't go that far SF. Minima looks frequently around 11c while maxima around 18c, in the CET zone, That equalls 14.5c. I think any rise will be small now we're well into the month. We may just add on 0.3c in the warmer period coming up so 14.9c looks likliest at the end of the mild tunnel.

After that, if the models are to be believed, we're going to see further falls.

[West is Best]

then, as WiB would say, it's all uphill from there!

Dragging me into this for support isn't wise Stratos. I think you've been getting things a bit wrong of late, and once again think you're wide of the mark on this. In your desire to see a universal warm-up I don't think you are doing justice to the facts.

After tomorrow it will only take an average final third of the month to finish at average, and I think an average finish, or below, is more likely than not looking at the synoptics. Both ECM and UKMO are going for a remarkably cold final week. It would be a very brave person to bet against either of those models - and the GFS 0z also went for their scenario. If ECM verifies we'll be talking about how close to 13C we can get, rather than 14C!

This is an amazing start to autumn!

[West is Best]

The official Hadley minima fell 0.4C in 24hrs, from 11.2C yesterday to 10.8C today. It'll be interesting to see if Manley shows a similar fall. If it does then with the suppressed maxima the Manley update tonight should be down to either 14.5C or 14.6C: probably the latter.

Edited September 18, 2007 by West is Best

[The PIT]

Well it's going to warm up again in the next few days so CET should recover it's losses fairly easy. Evening forecast had temps in the high teens and even into low twenties around London.

[SP1986]

Dragging me into this for support isn't wise Stratos. I think you've been getting things a bit wrong of late, and once again think you're wide of the mark on this. In your desire to see a universal warm-up I don't think you are doing justice to the facts.

After tomorrow it will only take an average final third of the month to finish at average, and I think an average finish, or below, is more likely than not looking at the synoptics. Both ECM and UKMO are going for a remarkably cold final week. It would be a very brave person to bet against either of those models - and the GFS 0z also went for their scenario. If ECM verifies we'll be talking about how close to 13C we can get, rather than 14C!

This is an amazing start to autumn!

I understand your enthusiasm for the changing of the season, I really do, but this is a little OTT, This start to Autumn is a little taster but nothing more. I think we need to see a little more of September/October before we can say how Autumn has started?

I cant see September finishing below 14 in all honesty!

[West is Best]

Well it's going to warm up again in the next few days so CET should recover it's losses fairly easy. Evening forecast had temps in the high teens and even into low twenties around London.

On the contrary - CET zone has been in single figures this evening. This was always likely ahead of the cloud, so that minima will finish the morning higher than they started. The GFS got this right and it means further falls are likely. It's worth remembering that with an average of 14C and a minima of 9C you need a maxima of 19C just to maintain that level.

I cannot see the CET rising hgh again from here unless there's the one condition to permit it: the high to our east with southerlies.

I understand your enthusiasm for the changing of the season, I really do, but this is a little OTT, This start to Autumn is a little taster but nothing more. I think we need to see a little more of September/October before we can say how Autumn has started?

I do agree with this actually. At this early stage of autumn the most we can realistically hope for is cold spells - but that in itself is so refreshing for me after what seems like years without my favourite season.

I apologise for my enthusiasm. I just adore autumn, and at last we've got one back again - whatever now happens the leaves have been turning and it has been cold.

[Gavin P]

I certainly don't see any more rise's this week. OK, some milder nights are on the way, but we also have a couple of cool/wettish day, which will surpress maxima in the zone. Then possibly a slight rise over the weekend (or maybe not - It'll depend on what happens with minima) and then next week, perhaps more drops as we flirt with another northerly plunge.... I still don't think 13.8 or 13.9 is out of the question here....

[SP1986]

On the contrary - CET zone has been in single figures this evening. This was always likely ahead of the cloud, so that minima will finish the morning higher than they started. The GFS got this right and it means further falls are likely. It's worth remembering that with an average of 14C and a minima of 9C you need a maxima of 19C just to maintain that level.

I cannot see the CET rising hgh again from here unless there's the one condition to permit it: the high to our east with southerlies.

I do agree with this actually. At this early stage of autumn the most we can realistically hope for is cold spells - but that in itself is so refreshing for me after what seems like years without my favourite season.

I apologise for my enthusiasm. I just adore autumn, and at last we've got one back again - whatever now happens the leaves have been turning and it has been cold.

No need to apologise Richard Its healthy to have enthusiam (although ive been told its obsession not enthusiasm by some people - that makes me seeth )

If It comes to mid-October and weve had more than 5 northerlies producing frequent low temperatures day and night, I will certainly agree thats that a very very good start to Autumn.

Leaves are only just starting to turn noticeably yet there are still an abundance of flowers out, and as a general rule, while the timing that leaves change are governed by the sun, flowers are sustained by temperatures. Therefore its possible if temperatures didnt go much below 10C all winter, then flowers would last all the way through the season.

The flowers are usually in the process of dying off by now, but despite the earlier change in leaves, flowers are still going strong, all very interesting!

[Stratos Ferric]

Dragging me into this for support isn't wise Stratos. ...

I expected a man of your high learning to spot my obvious irony. I know as well as you do that the road your on, after passing Damascus, heads straight to the north pole. Heaven forbid that you share any of whatever medication you're on with Tamara.

...What would we do without you?

"There may be a bit more downward movement tomorrow, depending on what happens overnight, but I think 14.4 is the floor for now, and then, as WiB would say, it's all uphill from there!"

I wouldn't go that far SF. Minima looks frequently around 11c while maxima around 18c, in the CET zone, That equalls 14.5c. I think any rise will be small now we're well into the month. We may just add on 0.3c in the warmer period coming up so 14.9c looks likliest at the end of the mild tunnel.

After that, if the models are to be believed, we're going to see further falls.

Re the first point little would change and the world would carry on spinning. There'd just be a few fewer posts and the suspicion that snow in New York presages snow in the UK might be a tad more prevalent.

Re the rest, I was teasing WiB.

Here's the latest mid-month update, based on the coolest of the runs I've seen today. If I were Stu I'd be getting very excited again. Certainly looks cooler (or at least more average) than it did a week ago, but the models are still bouncing around and I fancy that this one is a tad low. Low 14s look good to me, and odds still very much against a sub-par month, though it's narrowed slightly.

[Stu_London]

If I were Stu I'd be getting very excited again.

Why might I ask should i be getting excited?

[Stratos Ferric]

Why might I ask should i be getting excited?

Isn't your guess for this month low 14s? Close to the money.

Isn't your guess for this month low 14s? Close to the money.

...although, as I suspected, the 18z run is looking a lot warmer. The caveat to the earlier projection is: "looks like all the margin is upside".

[Gavin P]

Well, I'm down to 14.5c up to September 18th, and I lopped off a full 0.4c today! My average minimum is at a very cool 9.3c right now as well.

[Stu_London]

Isn't your guess for this month low 14s? Close to the money.

Oh yes 14.2 I think

I fully expect to be spot on the 29th and 0.1C out on the 30th though - that has been my fortune on two other occasions during the CET competition to date.

Isn't your guess for this month low 14s? Close to the money.

...although, as I suspected, the 18z run is looking a lot warmer. The caveat to the earlier projection is: "looks like all the margin is upside".

I am not convinced that even the 18z has any real rising days in it. I can see quite a narrow range actually between where Wednesday figure ends up and that of the month end.