September CET!

[Stratos Ferric]

I find the last two comments rather bizarre based on the model output that is available.

Even if I ramp it up a couple of degrees from what I think it's going to come in at I come up with these daily average (max/min combined) for the CET zone

Fri - 15.5C - No change

Sat - 12C - Drop of 0.2C or 0.3C

Sun 15.5C - No change

Mon - 12.5C - Drop of 0.2C

Tues - 9.0C - Drop of 0.3C or 0.4C

Weds - 10.5C - Drop or 0.2C

After that is very much FI and or course the polar airmass for Mon-Wed could still downgrade, however a drop near to 1C from here in a weeks time looks the most likely outcome.

Stu, 9.0C on Wednesday. Unless the models have changed since this morning you're barking. You haven't started dating somebody in Hastings have you?

[Duncan McAlister]

Stu, 9.0C on Wednesday. Unless the models have changed since this morning you're barking. You haven't started dating somebody in Hastings have you?

These suggest about 9C on Wednesday, SF

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn13817.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

although they do tend to overcook, and that's why Stu has made an allowance for this.

[Stratos Ferric]

Early month projection.

Certainly a drop after the weekend, with a cold looking night Monday night into Tuesday. Even though I suspect it will modify up slightly before then, and though I doubt an airfrost, a ground frost is possible for some in the sheltered E. Beyond then we're into FI, but the pattern is looking variable though generally westerly, with any modified polar air more likely to impact the north, the south always stsaying closer to HP. Still continuing generally dry though.

At this point the window for outturn looks like mid to high 14s, slightly cooler than looked likely a day or two ago now that the eastwards migration of HP is not projected.

[Stu_London]

Stu, 9.0C on Wednesday. Unless the models have changed since this morning you're barking. You haven't started dating somebody in Hastings have you?

SF We are talking the min/max average

4 or 5 for the minima - might not get much above 13 or 14 for the max

Early month projection.

Certainly a drop after the weekend, with a cold looking night Monday night into Tuesday. Even though I suspect it will modify up slightly before then, and though I doubt an airfrost, a ground frost is possible for some in the sheltered E. Beyond then we're into FI, but the pattern is looking variable though generally westerly, with any modified polar air more likely to impact the north, the south always stsaying closer to HP. Still continuing generally dry though.

At this point the window for outturn looks like mid to high 14s, slightly cooler than looked likely a day or two ago now that the eastwards migration of HP is not projected.

Not a lot different to my projection in terms of degrees lost.

[Stratos Ferric]

These suggest about 9C on Wednesday, SF

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn13817.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

although they do tend to overcook, and that's why Stu has made an allowance for this.

To be fair, even the projection I've put in comes in around 8-9, however, looking at the surface flow as projected I suspect the 850s are too low. It doesn't look like a 12-4 split to me; going on a more instinctive interpretation I'd say something closer to 15 or 16 top end, and we certainly aren't going to bag a mean air frost the night before, though it will probably be the coldest night of autumn to date if we stay as progged.

[Gavin P]

Coldest night looks to me to be Tuesday/Wednesday. I think ground frost right down to the Midlands will be possible early on Wednesday morning.

[Stu_London]

From www.climate-uk.com

CET to 13.09.07 - 15.4C

No change to the headline figure from yesterday although a slight drop as yesterday was a rounded down figure.

[West is Best]

From www.climate-uk.com

CET to 13.09.07 - 15.4C

No change to the headline figure from yesterday although a slight drop as yesterday was a rounded down figure.

Good morning Stu.

I think the next 7 days should see a fairly considerable fall off. We lose the high maxima at the same time as getting some pretty low minima.

We might very well still get a below average month.

[Stu_London]

We might very well still get a below average month.

Possible although much depends on the last week which is still very much FI. I think the 'in running' position will be down to around average by the 23rd, although I still favour an overall outcome around 14C (not least because it's close to my prediction )

Anything even near average is gonig to be well below the 10 year running mean which suggests that the relative cooloff started in late June 2007 still has some legs

Edited September 14, 2007 by Stu_London

[Roger J Smith]

I have the feeling the CET will track down to about 14.5 late next week then stage a rally in the final week with some very warm weather returning, could see some 25 C readings in about ten days time. That could bring the final CET back into the mid 15s or so.

[Stratos Ferric]

I have the feeling the CET will track down to about 14.5 late next week then stage a rally in the final week with some very warm weather returning, could see some 25 C readings in about ten days time. That could bring the final CET back into the mid 15s or so.

A late 'rally' wouldn't pull it back that high Rog, not least because variation at the end of the month has much less gearing re the overall average, however, in the absence of sustained or extreme cold it will be more than enought to make sure that we come in not just above average, but probably comfortably above. I'm standing by my 14.5-15 for now.

Coldest night looks to me to be Tuesday/Wednesday. I think ground frost right down to the Midlands will be possible early on Wednesday morning.

Monday / Tuesday night certainly offer first genuine potential of the season for some general ground frost. The main factor against that at present looks likely to be wind speed. Tuesday night looks the calmer of the two, but less cold air aloft, and possible some cloud dragged in. I'd say less likely than more likely overall, but worth watching, and certainly a couple of cold night likely.

[Stratos Ferric]

SF We are talking the min/max average

4 or 5 for the minima - might not get much above 13 or 14 for the max

Not a lot different to my projection in terms of degrees lost.

Indeed not, in fact you've probably described the mid line in the plot rather well.

[Stu_London]

No change up to the 14th - I don't know if it was that cold last night (I was in bed until 11am)

Today is nice again down south

[Gavin P]

Well, it was 5.4c here last night. Not sure about in the zone, though?

[West is Best]

No change up to the 14th - I don't know if it was that cold last night (I was in bed until 11am)

Today is nice again down south

Hi Stu - yes some places in the zone got very low (5C and 6Cs) so the CET will take a hit today I suspect, and mostly for some time to come.

[The PIT]

Question is whether those are stations that are used. Nice and Chilly here early doors with classic fog patches. Hardly made a dint in our figures though. Still the warmest month of the year so far. :huh: :huh:

Edited September 15, 2007 by The PIT

[Optimus Prime]

Last night was very cool, lowest minimum 6.2c at around 6AM.

My minimum is now 0.2c below average but maxima is still exceptionally high. Although it was sunny, only maxed 19.3c.

[Stratos Ferric]

I must agree with Strattos Ferric, while there will be some downward movement on at least three of the next seven days, there will also be some upward movement, meaning that by the 20th, i would still expect the CET to be in the 15.1C-15.3C range.

I can't see us being anything like that high SB, but nor can I see any chance now of us getting under 14C this month. At present it's still looking like a mid-high 14s month.

[phil nw.]

Well, it was 5.4c here last night. Not sure about in the zone, though?

Hi Gavin,

I recorded a min. of 5c last night,i am sure there must have been some lower ones as i am not in a frost hollow.

It still looking warm enough by day at present so i don`t think C.E.T. will suffer much, at least untill we get the cooler air predicted by Monday.

[Don]

I can't see us being anything like that high SB, but nor can I see any chance now of us getting under 14C this month. At present it's still looking like a mid-high 14s month.

I agree. I can't see us getting any lower than the mid 14's this month. We only have another two weeks of September now.

:huh:

[West is Best]

I agree. I can't see us getting any lower than the mid 14's this month. We only have another two weeks of September now.

:huh:

That's a very bold call I must say. After today it'll be a notch down on the 15.4C because of last night's minima (The Pit - yes I tried to check out the CET stations and they seemed pretty low).

But to say you can't see us getting lower than a drop of around 0.8C with a whole half of the month to go (15th today and 15 to go from tomorrow), at this time of year too, is I personally think risky.

The likeliest figure from here ought to be around 14C, with a centigrade above or below being the sort of range that's most likely.

Edited September 15, 2007 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

The likeliest figure from here ought to be around 14C, with a centigrade above or below being the sort of range that's most likely.

Well, by my reckoning we will lose approx 0.1 today so Manley would be (say) 15.3 at mid month - easy to work out from there. A centrigrade below? so, 13? That would require a bone-chilling 10.7 for the second half of the month, 14 would require a more palatable 12.7 and 15 a rather toasty 14.7.

I think below average by 0.1 (12 required to reach this) has to be the very very lowest possible expectation, and that would require something colder than the general outlook offers - to suppress the minima we need clear nights, but if we go for low maxima under rain minima may well be too high. I can't see a synoptic pattern likely in September that would remain in place to deliver a sub-par month now, it was just too warm early doors.

[West is Best]

Well, by my reckoning we will lose approx 0.1 today so Manley would be (say) 15.3 at mid month - easy to work out from there. A centrigrade below? so, 13? That would require a bone-chilling 10.7 for the second half of the month, 14 would require a more palatable 12.7 and 15 a rather toasty 14.7.

I think below average by 0.1 (12 required to reach this) has to be the very very lowest possible expectation, and that would require something colder than the general outlook offers - to suppress the minima we need clear nights, but if we go for low maxima under rain minima may well be too high. I can't see a synoptic pattern likely in September that would remain in place to deliver a sub-par month now, it was just too warm early doors.

Charlotte, we're currently 0.7C above for the time of month which isn't a huge amount. I reckon we'll possibly be at 15.2C on Manley overnight, otherwise as you say 15.3C. Then after Sunday's possible nudge up (though probably stable) it'll fall away sharply next week. We would expect to lose a full degree anyway during the second half of the month if you look at the graphs: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0709.htm

I reckon we could easily lose a degree by next weekend to leave the figure at around 14.3C with a full week to go. Edit - actually I think that may be too high. Just running through things I could see us being on 14C by end of next Saturday. I think you may be under-estimating just how 'fresh' this coming week is going to be?!

By the way, although you are citing 12C as low I can see some CET 24 hr periods next week being in single figures.

Edited September 15, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

I would be suprised (based on the output) if we end up outside of 14.0-14.5C

[Snowly does it]

By the way, although you are citing 12C as low I can see some CET 24 hr periods next week being in single figures.

Having considered the post after posting it, I can see where you are coming from but I really do think sub-par is asking a lot, we'll see