September CET!

[summer blizzard]

15.4C now according to Phillip Eden.

[Optimus Prime]

Apart from one or two cold nights day time temps are going to be quite good on the whole so at the present time it's looking looking a very mild month coming up for us anyway.

That's a striking comment considering we're just coming upto 2 weeks into the month.

But I hope it ends up 2c above normal, would make my 15.5c prediction very tasy indeed.

[noggin]

Much talk on the model discussion thread of a big cooldown coming next week. That would be good for my 13.3c. I'm feeling quite pleased with myself over the past couple of months going for nice low CETs. :o

[The PIT]

That's a striking comment considering we're just coming upto 2 weeks into the month.

But I hope it ends up 2c above normal, would make my 15.5c prediction very tasy indeed.

Eye being brave but also based on GP's comments about the likely hood of the high coming back again.

[Gavin P]

Well I think the CET's in for a real punding over the next week or so (from friday) It'll be fun to see where it is by next Friday.

[damianslaw]

Yes a downward trend in the CET from tomorrow onwards, just how it should be as we go through September matching the ever increasing darkness and weakening of the sun, this September is beginning to feel a very traditional one, i.e. the first 10 days often bring very dry sunny and pleasant conditions, then a gradual deterioration to more unsettled conditions as we head towards the equinox, with the first storms of the season usually occuring around then and then ending on generally unsettled westerly note, yes we have nearly 3 weeks left but the pattern is following how in my eyes September should traditionally deliver.

[Stratos Ferric]

Yes a downward trend in the CET from tomorrow onwards, just how it should be as we go through September matching the ever increasing darkness and weakening of the sun, this September is beginning to feel a very traditional one, i.e. the first 10 days often bring very dry sunny and pleasant conditions, then a gradual deterioration to more unsettled conditions as we head towards the equinox, with the first storms of the season usually occuring around then and then ending on generally unsettled westerly note, yes we have nearly 3 weeks left but the pattern is following how in my eyes September should traditionally deliver.

I wouldn't bank on it becoming unsettled, certainly not yet and in the fashion that has often been dominant in recent autumns. May be an interesting N-S split if things continue as they are, and it continues to look like a very dry September. Should get some spectacular displays on the trees.

[Stu_London]

I wouldn't bank on it becoming unsettled, certainly not yet and in the fashion that has often been dominant in recent autumns. May be an interesting N-S split if things continue as they are, and it continues to look like a very dry September. Should get some spectacular displays on the trees.

As all seasoned model watchers should know

Write off High Pressure at your peril

[Gavin P]

Well, as long as the air is cool, high pressure in September is no block to cool temps and CET's. Infact, with cold nights, we're almost at the point where its probably easier to get a cold CET with high pressure, than with low. Though the source of the air is important of course - Its still much too early for inversions to take place obviously.

Looking like a notably cold interlude to me, Monday-Wednesday.

Edited September 12, 2007 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

As all seasoned model watchers should know

Write off High Pressure at your peril

I must agree with you Stu, to me it looks like a double northerly plunge followed by high pressure toppling over us again or just to the west.

[Gavin P]

That takes us to the second half of next week, then where do you see the pattern going after that, SB?

Further Scandi Troughing and high pressure continuing to sit just to the west of us, or a reload northerly, is my best guess, into the later stages of the month?

Edited September 12, 2007 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

I think that high pressure will remain over or just to the west until around the 25th, afterward, i expect either another potent cold shot or a warm plume..

[Gavin P]

I see. Thanks.

[Don]

Lets have another cold shot before the end of the month!

[Stratos Ferric]

As all seasoned model watchers should know

Write off High Pressure at your peril

Particularly when it is in 'the wrong place' (for cold)!

I must agree with you Stu, to me it looks like a double northerly plunge followed by high pressure toppling over us again or just to the west.

I suspect short lived and best, and quite probably likely to be nudged just east before the cold air digs in. Not so much a 'northerly toppler' as a 'HP nudger'.

[Stu_London]

From www.climate-uk.com

CET - 15.4C

No change for the 12th - with temps holding up overnight and a warmish day today, we may see a rise tomorrow before 7-8 days where the trend will most likely be falling.

EDIT: It's actually a bit colder than I thought in the zone (some 7C and 8C) so a rise less likely today.

Edited September 13, 2007 by Stu_London

[The PIT]

I'm beginning to wonder if our Max temps are going to be higher than June July and August. Certainly looking like it at the moment.

[DR Hosking]

From www.climate-uk.com

EDIT: It's actually a bit colder than I thought in the zone (some 7C and 8C) so a rise less likely today.

Yes, was cooler than predicted last nigh. Was 8c in my car themometer (it is actually fairly accurate) at 8:30am this morning, so was probably a degree or so cooler last night.

[Stratos Ferric]

...we may see a rise tomorrow before 7-8 days where the trend will most likely be falling.

EDIT: It's actually a bit colder than I thought in the zone (some 7C and 8C) so a rise less likely today.

Stu, remember what happened the last time you said that.

Might fall slightly over the next few days, though I suspect a slight rise on Sunday along the way, and Monday still looks like it could be warm in CET-land. Thereafter, as I said previously, a N-S split might be more noticeable. Fast westerlies are not going to be that cool at night. We're certainly starting to look a million miles from a below average month, and almost certainly anything sub 14; we can firm up on that after the w/e though. Right now, I'd still put my money on a finish around 15 +/- 0.5C.

[The PIT]

Stu, remember what happened the last time you said that.

Might fall slightly over the next few days, though I suspect a slight rise on Sunday along the way, and Monday still looks like it could be warm in CET-land. Thereafter, as I said previously, a N-S split might be more noticeable. Fast westerlies are not going to be that cool at night. We're certainly starting to look a million miles from a below average month, and almost certainly anything sub 14; we can firm up on that after the w/e though. Right now, I'd still put my money on a finish around 15 +/- 0.5C.

Looking at the temps for us this weekend it shouldn't alter much this weekend. Everything will depend on whether the nights are clear on Friday or not. We still on here for the warmest month of the year so far which is rather silly.

[Stu_London]

I find the last two comments rather bizarre based on the model output that is available.

Even if I ramp it up a couple of degrees from what I think it's going to come in at I come up with these daily average (max/min combined) for the CET zone

Fri - 15.5C - No change

Sat - 12C - Drop of 0.2C or 0.3C

Sun 15.5C - No change

Mon - 12.5C - Drop of 0.2C

Tues - 9.0C - Drop of 0.3C or 0.4C

Weds - 10.5C - Drop or 0.2C

After that is very much FI and or course the polar airmass for Mon-Wed could still downgrade, however a drop near to 1C from here in a weeks time looks the most likely outcome.

Edited September 13, 2007 by Stu_London

[summer blizzard]

I must agree with Strattos Ferric, while there will be some downward movement on at least three of the next seven days, there will also be some upward movement, meaning that by the 20th, i would still expect the CET to be in the 15.1C-15.3C range.

[Stu_London]

I must agree with Strattos Ferric, while there will be some downward movement on at least three of the next seven days, there will also be some upward movement, meaning that by the 20th, i would still expect the CET to be in the 15.1C-15.3C range.

well we shall see

[Lettucing Gutted]

I don't put too much trust in FI (Fantasy Island). Those models forcasted countless Northerlies during winter and spring 2006/2007 but a lot of them were "Phantom Northerlies".

[eddie]

I find the last two comments rather bizarre based on the model output that is available.

Even if I ramp it up a couple of degrees from what I think it's going to come in at I come up with these daily average (max/min combined) for the CET zone

Fri - 15.5C - No change

Sat - 12C - Drop of 0.2C or 0.3C

Sun 15.5C - No change

Mon - 12.5C - Drop of 0.2C

Tues - 9.0C - Drop of 0.3C or 0.4C

Weds - 10.5C - Drop or 0.2C

After that is very much FI and or course the polar airmass for Mon-Wed could still downgrade, however a drop near to 1C from here in a weeks time looks the most likely outcome.

I would pretty much agree with this. Looking at the models I can't see any day in the next week that is going to come in much above the current CET figure and Saturday and Tuesday could make quite a dent with some low minima.

I think it's unlikely that my 13.3C guess is going to be realised after the warm start to the month but I still don't think sub 14C is out of the question.

Edited September 13, 2007 by eddie