September CET!

[Gavin P]

I always think its best to get to the middle of any month, before making any judgements about where its going to end up. Mid-Month is the earliest that you can make a judgement, based on where it is at that point, and what the likliest CET will be for the following two weeks. Its still early days for this September.

Edited September 8, 2007 by Gavin P

[West is Best]

15.8C: Rodger J Smith

Roger, I don't know either come to think of it! :unsure: Summer blizzard, from whom I took it, may want to enlighten us!

You're in with a distinct shout still of getting it very right this month, notwitstanding Stu London's daily prediction changes (aka updates).

[Stratos Ferric]

Roger, I don't know either come to think of it! Summer blizzard, from whom I took it, may want to enlighten us!

You're in with a distinct shout still of getting it very right this month, notwitstanding Stu London's daily prediction changes (aka updates).

I think 15.8 may be a little too high, but anything above 15 is still very possible. There is nothing remotely cold in the offing, and HP continus to dominate. Much may depend on whether we get a clean high or a dirty one. Additionally, whether or not, as I expect, the HP eventually migrates to our E. If we're around 16 by Monday, we'll already be at a point where 14.5 would be required for the rest of the month to get us back below 15 by the month's end. Not out of the question, but next week looks mild more than it looks cool, in which case that equation might be looking like 14C per day needed by next w/e. As Gavin suggests though, it's largely all pointless conjecture this early in the month, though I think we can safely dismiss an outturn below 14C already. For all intents and purposes that would mean an above average month. Our long sequence of not eing able to get more than two cool months (c.f. rolling 30 year mean) on the bounce continues (you have to go back to 1996-7).

[summer blizzard]

I think 15.8 may be a little too high, but anything above 15 is still very possible. There is nothing remotely cold in the offing, and HP continus to dominate.

Wrong, there is actually growing agreement on a northerly around the 17th...

[pottyprof]

But with a warm foof...

That air will make it feel cool but not that cool...

[Stratos Ferric]

Wrong, there is actually growing agreement on a northerly around the 17th...

Well, I must admit SB that the pub run shows a northerly lasting for a couple of days commencing on the 20/21st. Bound to happen then.

[West is Best]

Wrong, there is actually growing agreement on a northerly around the 17th...

Not on the overnight GFS. Just wall-to-wall high pressure.

[Snowly does it]

Manley down to 15.5 to the 8th. Big discrepancy between Manley and Hadley thus far this month, some cooler nights in the offing this week although the CET may rise slightly today and possibly tomorrow before what looks like a bit of a dip (not by much though)

I am anticipating high 14s/low 15s now for the month.

[Stu_London]

If we're around 16 by Monday,

Not withstanding the possibility of an asteroid collision event, I would mark as highly unlikely.

There is nothing remotely cold in the offing, and HP continus to dominate.

Ensembles from trhe GFS show below average 850s in the near term, slightly above in the medium and below average and unsettled in FI.

No-one in the competition has called for anything in the 16's,

I was refering to the commentary that has occurred in the competition after if closed rather than the entries itself.

[Gavin P]

Considering we're only 0.5c above average after the first week, I believe theres no reason we couldn't end up with another below average month. We probably won't, but its way to early to make any real judgement calls about where this September will finish, IMO.

[Stu_London]

Considering we're only 0.5c above average after the first week, I believe theres no reason we couldn't end up with another below average month. We probably won't, but its way to early to make any real judgement calls about where this September will finish, IMO.

I think above average is the likely call - but below average is still possible - certainly not out of the question as some would suggest

[Optimus Prime]

The period 10th-15th has an average CET of 13.7c according to the GFS run. This is 1.2c below the average for the first half of September.

The first run to have some very low minima;

[summer blizzard]

Well, I must admit SB that the pub run shows a northerly lasting for a couple of days commencing on the 20/21st. Bound to happen then.

I always look at the ensembles to validate any operational run, yesterdays GFS12z for instance was a mild outlier, the GFS18z, was around the ensemble mean...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Still a chance it could stay mild, however more and more runs are backing a cooler outlook from the 17th..

GFS6z backs tis trend...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn2881.png

The period 10th-15th has an average CET of 13.7c according to the GFS run. This is 1.2c below the average for the first half of September.

The first run to have some very low minima;

Wow, some impressive widespread frost there, just a pity that we will see a downgrade.

[West is Best]

certainly not out of the question as some would suggest

Just slightly weary of slightly snide backchat remarks Stu to be totally honest . If you want to name and shame can't you just do it like a man? Who has suggested that below average is 'out of the question'? Would love to know who said that, or is this as inaccurate as your comment about the 16c punters yesterday? I'm not meaning to be gripey with you, but can't you just chop back a bit on the snideness and let's just be open and friendly with one another. A friendly over the table disagreement isn't a problem! So, who said below average is 'out of the question' please?

Edited September 9, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

a sub-par outcome would start to seem highly improbable.

Highly improbable - out of the question - same thing really.

There are loads of posts with various people saying high 15s, 16s etc. I can't be bothered to name them all.

But don't worry West - when the cold rampers start getting carried away with things, they will receive the same treatment

[Optimus Prime]

Does look increasingly likely the start of the second half of September will be cold. Possibly well below average.

It all depends of the rest of the month of course. By the 10th we will be running at only 0.7c above the average for the first ten days. It wouldn't take much to pull it down below average by the 20th.

[Stratos Ferric]

Just slightly weary of slightly snide backchat remarks Stu to be totally honest . If you want to name and shame can't you just do it like a man? Who has suggested that below average is 'out of the question'? Would love to know who said that, or is this as inaccurate as your comment about the 16c punters yesterday? I'm not meaning to be gripey with you, but can't you just chop back a bit on the snideness and let's just be open and friendly with one another. A friendly over the table disagreement isn't a problem! So, who said below average is 'out of the question' please?

I think, actually, I suggested it last WiB, and I stand by it. The rolling September 30 year mean is about 14C. Ten days in we're around 15C cumulatively ahead of that; the remainder of the month would need to average around 13.3C: I just can't see that without a dramatically cold run. Not saying it can't happen, just that my opinion is that it won't; if I'm wrong I'll put my hands up.

Highly improbable - out of the question - same thing really.

...

Stu, I'm sorry, but it IS NOT the same thing. Improbable by my definition means low probability - it does NOT mean zero probability. Out of the question means exactly that: it is not going to happen.

...Ensembles from trhe GFS show below average 850s in the near term, slightly above in the medium and below average and unsettled in FI.

...

So, we're agreeing then with my original comment, 'nothing remotely cold'. There's a five lane highway, and more, between below par 850s and 'cold'.

Not withstanding the possibility of an asteroid collision event, I would mark as highly unlikely.

...

Indeed. Yesterday came in cooler than I'd expected.

[Stu_London]

Stu, I'm sorry, but it IS NOT the same thing. Improbable by my definition means low probability - it does NOT mean zero probability. Out of the question means exactly that: it is not going to happen.

If improbable means low probability, then highly improbable doesn't leave a lot of probability left for something to not out of the question

I think above average is about 95% certain

Above 15C - I would only say 45%

I tend to put numbers alongside my calls - that way no-one could accuse me of hiding behind a word - which could have several different interpretations

So, we're agreeing then with my original comment, 'nothing remotely cold'. There's a five lane highway, and more, between below par 850s and 'cold'.

Indeed. Yesterday came in cooler than I'd expected.

I think there will be some 'cold' returns this week on the back of low minima

[West is Best]

Highly improbable - out of the question - same thing really.

No wonder you're not a very good economic forecaster if you think that But instead of 'as some would suggest' you might have 1. been accurate and 2. stated you were quoting SF. It's the back-handed snideness that's a little wearisome, that's all Stu. Let's be open and reasonable. Can I also humbly suggest that there's nothing very clever in adjusting a temperature forecast each day, and then critising everyone who has played the game and given a prediction before the start of the month and then just stuck with it despite ever-changing patterns.

[Stu_London]

No wonder you're not a very good economic forecaster if you think that But instead of 'as some would suggest' you might have 1. been accurate and 2. stated you were quoting SF. It's the back-handed snideness that's a little wearisome, that's all Stu. Let's be open and reasonable. Can I also humbly suggest that there's nothing very clever in adjusting a temperature forecast each day, and then critising everyone who has played the game and given a prediction before the start of the month and then just stuck with it despite ever-changing patterns.

Firstly, our repective economic views (in another thread) are a long way from playing out - I would avoid in being hasty in calling a winner just yet.

Secondly, despite being very good at rowing in the gym, it is highly improbabe that I will represent Great Britain in the next Olympics in Beijing. Most people would even say it's out of the question (see what I am getting at)

Thirdly, I wasn't having a go at SF solely, there are several people who have stated 15C+ is the likely outcome, indeed even you yourself were running around getting all excited about September being the hottest month of 2007 a couple of days ago. My posts aren't sniping, they are merely reminding people that we have 7 days data to hand from 30 and it's a bit early to get carried away. You will note that Gavin P has also been saying the same, yet I note you are not chastising his posts.

Fourthly, I do enter the competition and I do stick with my monthly prediction. There is nothing wrong with me giving a view at different times thorugh the month based on an ever changing situation.

Finally, if you wish to moderate my posts, I suggest you either:

a) ask Paul if you can be a moderator

b ) report my post to a moderator

c) inform me via PM of your greivances

Edited September 9, 2007 by Stu_London

[Stratos Ferric]

If improbable means low probability, then highly improbable doesn't leave a lot of probability left for something to not out of the question

I tend to put numbers alongside my calls - that way no-one could accuse me of hiding behind a word - which could have several different interpretations

I think there will be some 'cold' returns this week on the back of low minima

Stu, I'm not hiding behind words. It's not a case of 'if' improbable means unlikely - the fact is that by the dictionary definition it does. Highly improbable therefore means highly unlikely; if you insist on numbers then let's say my take would be around 5% or less chance.

Perhaps to you every word is as a hammer to somebody not conversant with a full toolkit - i.e. if in doubt, any hammer will do. The fact is that, whatever today's younger generation may feel, there are several hundred thousand words in the English language because there are that many requirements for precise meaning (and more). The words for your 45% are, say, 'around evens'. You can use numbers all you like, but it infers a precision which, in reality, even you with your all seeing powers cannot honestly claim to have. My use of words is deliberate; they imply a reasonably narrow range of possibility, but still a range nonetheless, and my choice of words is also aimed at being specific. For instance I use 'regular' to mean 'regular', and 'frequent' to mean 'frequent', and not the former to mean the latter. Even I, however, would not claim that 'improbable' and 'about evens' are the same thing.

...Thirdly, I wasn't having a go at SF solely, ...

Perhaps your unfortunate choice of words betrays, shall I say, a competitive streak whicih ill becomes the discussion. I may choose to disagree stridently with somebody's point of view, but rarely, if ever, would I choose to be 'having a go' at somebody. Or is that just a careless choice of words?

No wonder you're not a very good economic forecaster if you think that But instead of 'as some would suggest' you might have 1. been accurate and 2. stated you were quoting SF. It's the back-handed snideness that's a little wearisome, that's all Stu. Let's be open and reasonable. Can I also humbly suggest that there's nothing very clever in adjusting a temperature forecast each day, and then critising everyone who has played the game and given a prediction before the start of the month and then just stuck with it despite ever-changing patterns.

There are two different elements at play. One is the start of month guess, which for us all stands; the second is the running commentary on likely outcomes. Point scoring re the former ill becomes anybody, because given that the whole thing is a guess, those who crow about relative precision one month stand to come a cropper sonner or later. It's in the nature of the outturn of events that the situation will ebb and flow during the month; Charlotte is an excellent example of somebody who can enter into the discussion without ever feeling the need to become tied to getting the answer right.

[damianslaw]

There have been many months over the last couple of years that have had major switcharounds come mid month either to much above or much below average CET, the most recent was June this year, the first half was very mild then it appreciably cooled off. Last year I remember May 2006 doing the same...

I still think there is a good chance of a near average CET for September, lets wait until at least this time next week to see whether a well above CET is realistic.

I think this month is going to be one of two halves, the latter much cooler and unsettled though not necessarily very wet. I am expecting this month to be a dry one..

[Stratos Ferric]

There have been many months over the last couple of years that have had major switcharounds come mid month either to much above or much below average CET, the most recent was June this year, the first half was very mild then it appreciably cooled off. Last year I remember May 2006 doing the same...

I still think there is a good chance of a near average CET for September, lets wait until at least this time next week to see whether a well above CET is realistic.

I think this month is going to be one of two halves, the latter much cooler and unsettled though not necessarily very wet. I am expecting this month to be a dry one..

Damian, let's be honest, if we can't call temperature then neither can we call precipitation with any certainty. For what it's worth though, I do agree that this month will probably be dry.

The period 10th-15th has an average CET of 13.7c according to the GFS run. This is 1.2c below the average for the first half of September.

The first run to have some very low minima...

If we get an air frost on Friday night as widely as that plot suggests then I'll eat Osbourne One-Nil.

[West is Best]

Thirdly, I wasn't having a go at SF solely, there are several people who have stated 15C+ is the likely outcome, indeed even you yourself were running around getting all excited about September being the hottest month of 2007 a couple of days ago. My posts aren't sniping, they are merely reminding people that we have 7 days data to hand from 30 and it's a bit early to get carried away. You will note that Gavin P has also been saying the same, yet I note you are not chastising his posts.

Hi Stu, let's not have a spat over this. I'm just asking you to be a bit more open and honest if you want to have a pop at other people's forecasting, rather than doing it via backhanded remarks - that's all. There's absolutely no need to involve moderators. Part of us getting along is to have a degree of self-regulation and self-moderation (which is a memo to self too), and to use them only when necessary.

At the same time, I can't really see why poking fun at those who suggest 15C+ is any more acceptable than poking fun at those who predict 10C or below. What's the point? It's supposed to be a game. Heavens above, if I wanted to do the same I could only remind you of the stock market competition you started and dropped after losing one week in, but there would be no point. It was a harmless bit of fun and at the end of the day like yours and my forecasting: little more than pinning a tail on the donkey.

As for September being the hottest, I'm not sure I was 'getting all excited' in the sense of thinking it probable, I just raised the possibility, alone, that it might happen. It would certainly be interesting, and would excite me slightly, if it did happen but the key word there is 'if', and I'm not suggesting it's other than a vague possibility.

Charlotte is an excellent example of somebody who can enter into the discussion without ever feeling the need to become tied to getting the answer right.

Charlotte is a gem. She and I have right old spats on politics, but I really like the 'gal. Even in disagreements, which at times get heated, there's a lot of respect.

[Stu_London]

Perhaps to you every word is as a hammer to somebody not conversant with a full toolkit - i.e. if in doubt, any hammer will do. The fact is that, whatever today's younger generation may feel, there are several hundred thousand words in the English language because there are that many requirements for precise meaning (and more). The words for your 45% are, say, 'around evens'. You can use numbers all you like, but it infers a precision which, in reality, even you with your all seeing powers cannot honestly claim to have. My use of words is deliberate; they imply a reasonably narrow range of possibility, but still a range nonetheless, and my choice of words is also aimed at being specific. For instance I use 'regular' to mean 'regular', and 'frequent' to mean 'frequent', and not the former to mean the latter. Even I, however, would not claim that 'improbable' and 'about evens' are the same thing.

That's not what I mean't to be honest. Using words makes the forum more interesting to read for one thing than just raw data.

I suppose as someone who deals in balancing things to the penny each day, precision is something that I prefer and numerical data provides that.

Hi Stu, let's not have a spat over this. I'm just asking you to be a bit more open and honest if you want to have a pop at other people's forecasting, rather than doing it via backhanded remarks - that's all. There's absolutely no need to involve moderators. Part of us getting along is to have a degree of self-regulation and self-moderation (which is a memo to self too), and to use them only when necessary.

Ok fair enough - don't expect mild ramping on the CET threads to go uncommented on though in the same way that people who get carried away (more likely on the model thread) with cold ramping will not escape.